Members Daily Post: 09/12/18 (complete)

Test x2, Section 1 (complete), test zone

1.All Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

2.Any Tips/Notes (Daily Tips/Festival Tips/other thoughts)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

Huntingdon

12.15 – San Pedro De Senam  (HcH, micro age/runs) 16/1 S2A 

 

Kelso

1.05 –

Progress Drive   (m runs) I3 8/1 S5 (ONLY IF 11.00+ BFSP) 

Looking Well   (m runs) 15/2

1.35 –

Ballynanty   (m runs) 14 13/2 

Prince Dundee   (m TJC) 11/1 S2 

2.10 – Cultram Abbey   (m runs)  w2 8/1 

 

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KEY

H1/H3= HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)

G1/G3 = Geegeez GoldSpeed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated

I1/I3 =  Inform Racing Speed Ratings – Top Rated or Top 3

14,30 = Geegeez Goldtrainer form’ indicators14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr3010+ runs last 30 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr

ES+ = ‘Elite Squad+’ = those angles from TTP stats pack with 10+ winners, 25%+ win SR 

S1-S6 : S = ‘Strategy’ and refers to the ‘advised strategies’ in the link below. S1 = ‘Strategy 1’. Added on morning of racing along with the price. w1won last start.   w2won two starts ago 

Welcome Video 2018/19>>>Watch HERE>>> Welcome Email HERE>>>

Updated: The Jumps Strategies: Where should you start? Some ideas HERE>>> 

‘Flat Strategies/results‘: Flat 2017 Read HERE>>>(updated to end Sept 2018)

‘Jumps Strategies/results’: Jumps 2017/18 Read HERE>>>(updated to end Sept 2018)

Research Articles: (TTP reports/Test Zone/Monthly Articles/Big Meetings Notes) READ HERE>>>

VIDEOS: Members Repository: HERE>>> . All Public (non members only) Videos HERE>>>

More Welcome Info  HERE>>>

Contact: email:  – info@racingtoprofit.co.uk  … or failing that… racingtoprofit@gmail.com 

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2.Any Tips/Notes (Daily Tips/Festival Tips/other thoughts)

Daily Tips (2018: 28/321,100p, -21.2 – on hold) Big Race/Festival Tips (2018: +147)

 

No other tips on this page bar the test below, x2 in Border’s National in free post (Total Assets and Bright Prospect… hit ‘home’ when logged in to see all posts inc members) 

 

TEST Best of the Stats Quals? (19/73,36p, +12.1 , all 1 point win, all odds) 

1.35 Kel – Ballynanty– 9/1 (gen) UR

1.55 Hunt – Shiroccan Roll– 10/3 (gen) 7/2 (bet365/Coral) UP poor

 

Ballynanty… I thought worth a go here as 8s/9s seems a bit big to my eyes. Alexander is in superb form in the last two weeks and this one seems to be getting better over hurdles, having travelled well for a long way at Muss before staying on the same pace – that was a decent enough race with lots of inform and unexposed hurdlers lining up. Were he running there again over 16f I wouldn’t have bothered but they come to Kelso which is more galloping and a stiffer finish – that may be just what he wants. He stayed well on the flat/AW and was rated in the 90s, hitting 100 at a time. When they find the key he really should be proving himself to be thrown in from this jumps mark, if ever running up to his flat equivalent. (opinions differ but you can generally add 25-40lb on top of a flat rating for jumps comparison, as a rough guide) It could be he gets outpaced again but on his third run of the season with the yard going so well, i couldn’t resit a go on this one.

Shiroccan Roll… annoying maybe that i missed the 11/2 but I still think this one should be fav here. Lavelle’s are going ok, and she has a superb record with handicap hurdle debutants- you can just back them all blind on the last couple of years. This ones form intrigues me- he bumped into Grand Sancy LTO, the run before bumping into a Hobbs horse who’s since won over fences. Grand S is rated 136 now and in theory, on that evidence, this one should should himself to be well handicapped at some stage. The front two in both those races were miles ahead of the rest. LA has ridden him before, he’s fit, in form and going the right way. What he’s done over hurdles so far is better than the Thomas horse I think, although that was a good run LTO. It looks to be between the two. Lavelle has another in here at 14s but he steps up in class and i’d have thought would find better treated rivals now but he couldn’t be in better form. And King as a LTO winner. Still, I thought this one could be 1 point shorter still, 5/2 or so, and will roll the dice.

That’s all for test tips, 10.44.

 

3.Micro System Test Zone

Paddy Brennan (14/1< guide) 

2.25 Hunt – Gods Own 9/2 

Autumn Trainers

12.15 H – Misty Bloom (14/1< 6/1< best) 4/1 

1.55 H – Blushing Red 9/2  / Shiroccan Roll (both 14/1< 6/1< best) 11/2 

 

Jumps Fact Sheet 2018/19 

Trainers to Follow

12.15 H – Misty Bloom (14/1< ,6/1< best) 4/1 

1.55 H – Blushing Red 9/2  / Shiroccan Roll 11/2 (both horses… 14/1< ,6/1< best) 

12.30 K – Senor Lombardy (11/1< guide) 6/4 

3.15 K – Triangle Rock (11/1< guide) 3/1 

Jockeys/Chasers

3.30 H – Eaton Miller (25/1<) 11/1 

LTO Winning Hurdlers

1.35 K – Xpo Universal 5/2 

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

Saturday was frustrating but I won’t complain too much. Plenty to reflect on as always. The ‘best of the stats’ quals winner was the only thing I had to cheer at Aintree sadly. Kilcrea Vale would have gone very close to winning if jumping as well as Warriors Tale. (not sure i’d have ever got to a place to tip him at his 6s morning price but fine margins) An annoying round and he pinged most of them but over-jumped a few and really messed up one that in effect cost him the race I think. He’d have been ahead and grinding away come the elbow without that I think,  and would have been hard to pass. But you have to jump. He’s turning into a horse without a trip and I don’t know if he’s just a slow boat. I was nowhere near the Becher winner- i wasn’t sure a soft+ ground slog over 26f would suit him but more of an unknown and he was still unexposed enough.  That Haydock PU in heavy put me off a tad but it’s always annoying when you’re never near an 18s>10s winner. Second week in a row I’ve overlooked one like that in the big handicap of the day so work to do there. Actinpieces may still be running sadly. The hurdler ran well in second, sadly bumping into the evergreen Man of Plenty. I thought I had that sewn up 2 out but he was outstayed. On we march. 

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Kelso ‘through the card’ pointers for Ken…to follow after all tipping content…

I haven’t spent much time on what follows, so more caution than usual 🙂

12.00 – West Coast Lass

12.30 – Claude And Goldie

1.05 – tips… Total Assets and Bright Prospect

1.35 – test tip – Ballynanty

2.10 – Band of Blood

2.40 – Off The Hook

3.15 – Triangle Rock / Silk or Scarlet

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Post Comments

Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

25 Responses

  1. I’m away in Brussels until Monday night so nothing from me for the next couple of days. Nice to get a winner even if they keep falling for me.

    1. Well done Nick, nice to sign off with a winner. I see your old mate grey Britain just scooted up on the all weather. 15/2 into 2/1 – I think someone knew!

  2. Hi Josh. Just a quick reminder if you have a chance to look at the Kelso card tomorrow. After a long lie, you should be nice and fresh to give it your best 🙂 Thanks.

  3. Josh your Jump Fact Sheet cannot work out your pricing structure

    12.15 H Misty Bloom 14/1< 6/1<best4/1, Misty Bloom is priced at 4/1 at this time,what do the 14/1 and 6/1 mean.

    Colin

    1. Yep. That angle research showed 14/1< (ie 14 or shorter SP) was the price cut off, but within that 6/1 < (6/1 or shorter sp) was best. Will be detailed in the research docs somewhere in research link in key. As always only ever info to use as you please. The price 'guide' 'best' and price etc have been posted in brackets in test zone for months.

  4. Aristo Du Plessis drifting to 8’s did me a favour today and got me back to a positive state after last weekend’s over confidence leading to disaster.
    1.05 Kelso taking a cautious approach
    .5pt e/w Total Assets
    .5pts e/w Ascot De Bruyere
    Hugh

  5. Border’s National tips from free post…

    1.05 Kelso – Border’s National 

    Total Assets – 1 point win – 10/1 (gen)

    Bright Prospect – 1 point win – 25/1 (betfS/PP/BetV/888) 22/1 20/1 (most places)

  6. Only my second day and after 5 e/w placed from 8 i did yesterday, was delighted with the S2A at Huntingdon today. I’m following the 4 or 5 approaches Josh described plus big race Tips. New boy and only small stakes as i get familiar with it all. So pleased to get a double figure Winner on my second day. Thanks Josh 🙂

    1. Oh small stakes is the way forward John as a starting point, those S2As will find nice winners and build up profit over time but can be a rocky road, but backing them EW ensures there not as painful! 5EW on all those would have been +£350 as of end Nov, that one will have helped with Dec, but the decent big priced place horse. Those 4 strats will tick along in time, and when one isn’t doing well hopefully another is etc, so a good portfolio. AS will by big race tips, once I find some form again, but that’s the nature of my approach with those, the profit tends to come in spikes and hopefully another good run soon.

      1. Thanks Josh, yes that all makes sense. I feel rewarded already for all the pre-joining Question’s i sent to you (you ll remember you said i was ‘thorough’ 🙂 ) I already believe that joining will prove to be one of my best ever buying decisions relating to Racing. I love the ‘portfolio’ approach too!

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