Members Daily Post: 08/12/18 (complete/Tipsx5)

2x Test, Tips – Sandwon x1, Grand Sefton x2, Section 1 (complete), test zone, + stats/trends shortlists x3,

1.All Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

2.Any Tips/Notes (Daily Tips/Festival Tips/other thoughts)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

Aintree

12.25 – Ballyhill  (micro runs) H3 11/2 

1.30 – Ultragold  (micro’s class and age) w230 12/1 S2 

3.15 –

Crievehill  (micro runs) I3 13/2 S5 (ONLY If 11.00+ BFSP) 

Shanahans Turn  (micro age) 30I35/1 S5 (ONLY If 11.00+ BFSP) 

Kilcrea Vale  (micro TJC) 14,30H3 I3 15/2 S5 (ONLY If 11.00+ BFSP) 

 

Chepstow

12.20 –

Kerisper  (micro distance) 25/1 S2A 

Top and Drop (HcCh, micro’s dist/going) 16/1 S2A 

1.55 – Yaltari (nov HcCh) w2 w1H1 I3 6/1 S5 (ONLY If 11.00+ BFSP) 

2.30 –

Houblon des Obeaux  (HcCh, micro’s going/class) 10/1 

Prime Venture  (micro class move) 25/1 S2A 

Duke des Champs  (micro’s class /class move) 14,30 15/2 

3.05 –

Truckers Lodge  (micro age) 14,30H1 I3 G1 11/4 S4 

On The Road  (HcH) 10/1 S2 

 

Sandown

12.50 – 

Papagana  (all Hc’s)  w2H3 13/2 

Waiheke  (micro distance) 14,30 5/1 

Zara Hope  (micro TJC) 16/1 S2A 

1.20 –

Ice Cool Champs  (micro’s TJC and class) 14,30 3/1 

Loose Chips  (micro runs)  w1 H1 I1 7/1 S5 (ONLY If 11.00+ BFSP) 

2.25 –

Apples Shakira  (HcH, micro’s dist/ and HcH deb) 14,30 H1 I1 7/2 

I’m A Game Changer  (micro TJC) 14,30I36/1 S5 (ONLY If 11.00+ BFSP) 

 

Wetherby

1.10 –

Dedigout  (micro’s TJC and going if soft TBC Sat morn) I1 15/2 S5 (ONLY If 11.00+ BFSP) 

Wig Wam Wiggle  (micro going if soft TBC Sat morn)  w1 G3 9/1 S1 (ONLY If 11.00+ BFSP) 

2.15 –

Sakhees City  (micro TJC) 14,3011/1 S2 

Cornerstone Lad  (micro going if soft- TBC Sat morn) H3 I3 10/3 

Only Orsenfoolsies  (micro’s TJC and going if soft TBC Sat morn) I1 G1 9/1 S1+S5 (ONLY If 11.00+ BFSP) 

2.50 –

Just Cameron  (micro’s TJC and going if soft TBC Sat morn) G3 5/1 S1 (ONLY If 11.00+ BFSP) 

Some Reign  (micro TJC) H3 I3 5/1 S5 (ONLY If 11.00+ BFSP) 

 

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KEY

H1/H3= HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)

G1/G3 = Geegeez GoldSpeed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated

I1/I3 =  Inform Racing Speed Ratings – Top Rated or Top 3

14,30 = Geegeez Goldtrainer form’ indicators14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr3010+ runs last 30 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr

ES+ = ‘Elite Squad+’ = those angles from TTP stats pack with 10+ winners, 25%+ win SR 

S1-S6 : S = ‘Strategy’ and refers to the ‘advised strategies’ in the link below. S1 = ‘Strategy 1’. Added on morning of racing along with the price. w1won last start.   w2won two starts ago 

Welcome Video 2018/19>>>Watch HERE>>> Welcome Email HERE>>>

Updated: The Jumps Strategies: Where should you start? Some ideas HERE>>> 

‘Flat Strategies/results‘: Flat 2017 Read HERE>>>(updated to end Sept 2018)

‘Jumps Strategies/results’: Jumps 2017/18 Read HERE>>>(updated to end Sept 2018)

Research Articles: (TTP reports/Test Zone/Monthly Articles/Big Meetings Notes) READ HERE>>>

VIDEOS: Members Repository: HERE>>> . All Public (non members only) Videos HERE>>>

More Welcome Info  HERE>>>

Contact: email:  – info@racingtoprofit.co.uk  … or failing that… racingtoprofit@gmail.com 

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2.Any Tips/Notes (Daily Tips/Festival Tips/other thoughts)

Daily Tips (2018: 28/321,100p, -21.2 – on hold) Big Race/Festival Tips (2018: +150)

 

BIG RACE TIPS

3.15 Aintree : The Grand Sefton

Kilcrea Vale – 1 point win – 8/1 (UniB) / 15/2 (BetfS/BV/BetB) 7/1 (gen) 

Tiquer – 1 point win – 33/1 (gen) (could be a BFSP job/or 1/2 take price/1/2 BFSP…?) 

as of 08.45… Becher Chase posted in free post (Regal Flow/Crosshue Boy)… 

 

2.25 Sandown: Listed Handicap Hurdle

Nelson’s Touch – 1 point win – 13/2 (SkyB/BV/Betf) 6/1 (gen)

as of 09.14… THAT’S ALL FOR BIG RACE TIPS

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TEST Best of the Stats Quals? (18/69,35p, +11.1 , all 1 point win, all odds) 

12.20 Chep – LLancillo Lord – 9/1 (BV/Coral/BetB) 8/1 (gen) 

2.40 Aint – Chica Buena – 9/ 2 (bet365/SkyB/BV) 4/1 (gen)

That’s it for all tipping, 10am…

 

write ups…

Kilcrea… pops up strongly on the stats below for the race and appears in section 1, so a solid stats foundation. Henderson is in flying form and the horse has won fresh. He does have a touch of class about him, was 4th in the Topham, appeared to relish the fences and can race prominently. There should be more to come from him this season and he should race prominently. He lost his place in the Topham before staying on, but hopefully in this lesser contest can hold a position more easily. Shananhan’s Turn could be the right fav but in my judgement looks about the right price. He did finish ahead of the selection in the Topham and likes it around here also. He is now 10, and isn’t 20s like the Hennessy winner (similar profile,same connections, this one not as classy) but he hasn’t won since 2015 and was poor LTO. Maybe the ground/trip were all wrong but at 5s I was happy to take him on, I wouldn’t put any off a 1/2 point saver, he probably won’t be far away.

Tiquer.. is a proper poke. Would be a stats buster and doesn’t show up well on the ratings sets I use as a guide…but he’s 33s and his win two starts back is as good a form as plenty in here, many of them having won C3s and needing to step up…they are more unexposed and may do so, but they seem to have 1 bullet to fire with him each season and he’s lightly raced for his age. He’s won twice over fences on seasonal reappearance and the trainer regretted not running him in the Topham last year after that facile win at Newbury. Tom O’Brien is 2/2 on him, he jumps well, handles the ground and stays well. Were there 4 places i’d have gone EW I suspect and maybe i’ll regret not doing so as if he gets around, I don’t think he will be far away. I thought he was about twice the price he should be on what he’s done on paper. Repeats that Newbury run and who knows!

Nelson’s Touch… appears on the stats profile below and having bothered to look I felt like I should go with him at the odds.. he has a 9lb pull with the Phillips horse (who could be worth a saver also) and that was his first run of the season. He was a bit fresh early so Jacob anchored him- he wasn’t exactly fancied either, but he did best of the rest and chased the winner home. Jacob keeps the ride and he may have learnt plenty there, and won’t have him so far back. In theory him and Totterdown should be much closer this time and I think he should edge it – of course it’s then whether something else beats them… the fav is all class but this is her first run of the year on testing ground, with a big weight – that may not matter a jot but she can be a keen sort and will be in trouble if not settling here. I’ll be in big trouble if she does! But i’m happy to take her on at 7/2. I couldn’t have the rest, and thought it was between those three and that the selection was probably 1 point too big, if not a shade more. He’s open to plenty of progress this season, I just hope Jacob doesn’t give Totterdown too much rope…hopefully Moore’s may take him on, given he races up there and stays further.

To the test…

Llancillo Lord – 9s is too big. As is 8s. This one ran well over fences at the track on his seasonal reappearance, not beaten far. He’ll come on for it and should appreciate this step up in trip given how he runs/his profile. The yard are in form and I didn’t think he’d be that far away. I backed him at Exeter last season where he appeared to have a few issues. Hopefully the yard have sorted him out. I can’t get out of my head that he finished 3L behind Presenting Percy (who’ll go well in the Gold Cup if he gets there) in a hurdle not that many runs ago, and one day this horse will show himself to be well handicapped from this mark. Well worth a go at these odds in an open race.

Chica Buena – I thought is the one to beat given she’s one of the few proven in the slop/testing ground, is just much more experienced than most of these over hurdles, is in superb form, her races have worked out well inc the maiden hurdle win in Ireland (the Cromwell horse she beat there has run well in a couple of decent races since) and Hughes may try and dictate from the front. She’s battle hardy for her age and I thought had every chance of winning again, and could be a point shorter here. King’s has it to prove on the ground but of course there could be some lurkers. Hopefully she can step forward again, but she’s hacked up in all recent wins.

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That’s the lot for today, best of luck with any bets. I back plenty of losers in the big race tips, a 10% win SR or so, but I will find enough decent priced winners over time, hopefully some today!

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3.Micro System Test Zone

Paddy Brennan (14/1< guide) 

1.30 A – Fine Theatre 33/1 

3.15 A – Brandon Hill 12/1 

V Williams November (tracking Dec) (16/1< guide) 

1.55 C – Yaltari 6/1 

2.30 C – Houblon Des OBeaux 10/1 

Irish Raiders (16/1< guide) 

1.30 A – Crosshue Boy 8/1 / Fine Theatre 33/1 / Noble Endeavour 16/1 

D Pipe/PU (14/1< guide, 11/1< best) 

12.20 C – Its Obvious 16/1 

Irish Angles

2.10 N – Last Man Standing (12/1< best) 12/1 

Autumn Trainers

1.55 C – Flemcara (14/1<)  9/1 

NEW!NHF HEAVY (14/1< guide) 

3.40 C – Ballybreen 8/1 

 

Jumps Fact Sheet 2018/19 

LTO Winning Trainers

12.25 A – Granville Island 9/1 

Trainers to Follow 

1.00 A – Uptown Funk (11/1< guide)  40/1

2.40 A – Chica Beuna (11/1< guide) 9/2 

1.20 S – Fortunate Gorge (14/1< guide) 8/1 

Jockeys/Chasers

12.25 A – Lord Bryan (9/1< best) 8/1 

3.15 A – Warriors Tale (9/1< best) 6/1 

1.40 W – Frankly Speaking (25/1<) 10/1 

12.20 Chep – LLancillo Lord 9/1 

2.50 W – Just Cameron 5/1 

 

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

NEW! I’ve simplified the ‘where should you start‘ doc , looking at the four main jumps strategies: You can read that HERE>>> 

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New members…welcome to the team..

  • The KEY above is your friend… do check out the welcome video and i’d start with the ‘The Strategies: Where Should You Start‘ doc. Its all about the long game. I’m aware it can look a bit busy initially, but for example the ‘test zone’ you can just ignore for now if you wish. 
  • I update the post every morning around 8am with generally available morning odds and also the strategy symbols… for the four main jumps approaches that’s S1 / S2A / S3A# / w1(w1 posted in evening- simply denotes a horse that won LTO) In time you’ll know what to look for when it comes to the strategies using the information posted the evening before + a look at Oddschecker/a price comparison site. So, in time, you will be able to just bet the evening before if that suits you. Or you can just wait until 8.15 am or so! I use morning odds as the guide and to maintain consistency with results. S1 is also attacked using Betfair SP by setting a minimum price of 11.00, IF the S1 horse is under 10/1 on morning odds. I add a note in the morning explaining that. That’s all explained and demonstrated in the welcome video. You’ve probably had enough of my voice for one day, but it’s worth it. Get the popcorn 🙂 
  • S1 and S2A are big odds strategies, hunting out big priced winners with decent ROIs. They can have some tough losing runs but have been profitable for some time stretching back to the start of 2017. If you just wanted to start with one big odds one, i’d make it S1. But they are not for everyone. S3A# and w1 are more focused, find more winners, higher win strike rates, shorter losing runs – but even they have them also. Those two went through the +100 point mark this month, no doubt much bigger if betting the evening before. A good mix of just two would be S1 and S3A#. 
  • REFRESH… do refresh your browser at various points to see any new comments or if I add anything. You can keep track of my posts in the title bar.. you will see ‘upd1’ up there at the moment…you’ll know there’s something new when you see upd2, upd3 etc etc, and then finally ‘complete’, after which point i’ll be done.
  • DO NOT be afraid to ask a question if you’re unsure. You can post a comment or email me. No question is too silly. There are many things that I can always do better, but i try my best. If you have an issue with something, just shout! (politely. we’re a friendly bunch) And take your time. You’re got ages to feel your way in and get your head around everything, use it. And if it’s not for you, fair enough. 🙂

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Saturday Big Race Stats/Trends/Pointers

Complete/all races: Becher/ Grand Sefton/London National/2m Listed Handicap/3m Pertempts Qual: READ HERE>>>

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Becher Chase Stats Shortlist

This doesn’t look the strongest of stats races in truth… a ‘winning profile’ of a win C2 or higher, 4+ career wins, 2+ places in handicap chases, not 10 or 11… leaves 10/54,16p in last decade, +106 BFSP. That profile leaves…

BlackLion / Vieux Lion Rouge/ Present Man / Missed Approach / Crosshue Boy / Noble Endeavour / Highand Lodge / Mustmeetalady 

From that list…

1+ chase run at track is a positive (not necessarily National fences, so not sure how relevant!): acklion/Vieux Lion Rouge/Highland Lodge / Mustmeetalady 

A run over 4m2.5f+ is a positive: BackLion/ Vieux Lion Rouge/ Highland Lodge 

Running at ‘Festival’ LTO a positive: BlackLion/Vieux Lion Rouge/Missed Approach 

0-1 win in handicap chases a positive inc last 4 winners of race: BlackLion/Missed Approach/Noble Endeavour/ Highland Lodge 

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Grand Sefton Stats Shortlist 

Again maybe not the strongest of stats races, i like big 0/X stats with low placed runners but some sort of guide anyway…the x3 10/10 stats… horse 2lb lower to 2lb higher than last race, top 10 in the weights (exc claims), had run Grade 3 or higher… leaves 10/57,20p +85 BFSP…

Shanahans Turn / Warriors Tale/ Kilcrea Vale / Captain Redbeard / More Bucks / Voix Deau 

A run over fences at track a positive (not necessarily National fences, so maybe not too relevant): Shanahans Turn / Warriors Tale/ Kilcrea Vale / Captain Redbeard / Voix Deau 

Running Listed / G3 / G2 LTO a positve: Kilvrea Vale / Voix Deau 

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The Sandown races have cut off somewhat, 8 runners for London National, and 10 in the two handicap hurdles. A stats approach with that many runners can be a bit futile/leaves you too blinkered etc… BUT… for the following…

2.25 – Listed Handicap Hurdle 

There are 3 10/10 stats here, 4-9 hurdle runs, had won in last 4 starts, 1-5 runs in handicap hurdles… and if holding up then one of these two is winning!…   

Totterdown / Nelson Touch 

 

 

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Post Comments

Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

20 Responses

    1. Hi Francis, it’s from a couple of years ago and if no changes the trainers to follow for nhf on HEAVY are:
      E. Williams…..esp 1st t/o
      P. Hobbs
      J. Snowden
      NTD
      B. Ellison
      N. Mulholland
      Noel Meade in Ireland (heavy/yielding)…esp 1st t/o

    1. Yep that’s the one. I posted research etc in a chat with Mark in comments a couple of days back when he asked a question about NHF. I’ll post it up properly next week on a quieter day. Plenty of logic which is sound and results have been solid esp taking earlier prices. Of course some meetings change with weather during day so I probably need to change my saved settings and post those when ground is soft currently etc. There have only been 2 quals since Sept before the one above . We shall see if it continues this season.

  1. 340C Ballybreen – Caution, I hear from an independent and authorititive source that the horse has wind issues and is slow.

  2. Ballyhill Aintree 12:25 1pt e/w 8/1
    Highland Lodge Aintree 13:30 1pt e/w 16/1
    Flemcara Chepstow 13:55 1pt e/w 9/1
    On The Road Chepstow 15:05 1pt e/w 10/1

  3. after a bally awful day yesterday a bit of a bally day today.
    Chepstow.
    12-20 Maguires Glen 22-1 sky 4 places (looks massively overpriced to me)
    2-50 Ballycross 15-2
    Sandown
    1-20 Holly Bush Henry 9-1
    Aintree.
    12-25 Ballyhill 8-1
    1-30 Ballyoptic 7-1, Highland Lodge 14-1 WH 7 places
    3-15 Brandon Hill 12-1 sky 4 places
    all 1/2 pt ew

  4. Hobbs – Johnson handicappers, class 1 to 3, 1 or 2 runs in 90 days:

    1.20 Sandown, Ice Cool Champs, 2 points win circa 11/4.
    2.25 Sandown, I’m A Game Changer, 1 point each way at 6/1.

    Emma Lavelle handicappers:

    1.55 Chepstow, Flemcara, 1 point each way at 10/1.

    Good luck.

  5. COLINS BETS

    No Bet

    ELITE BETS
    Chepstow
    12.20 West Wizard BOG 14/1
    Wetherby
    1.10 Dedigout BOG 8/1
    2.15 McGowan’s Pass BOG 3/1
    Sandown
    2.25 Apples Shakira

  6. RECENT TIPS
    Daily
    A 3.15 – Warriors Tale on 4th run @ 6
    C 12.20 – Llancillo Lord on 2nd run @ 9
    C 2.30 – Ramses de Teillee on 2nd run @ 2
    W12.40 – Overawed on 2nd run @ 6/4
    W 1.10 – Sevenballs of Fire on 1st run @ 22
    N 2.45 – Presenting Mahler on 4th run @ 50
    Festival
    C 2.30 – Houblon des Obeaux on 3rd run @ 10
    ………..Prime Venture on 5th run @ 25
    N 2.45 – Burren Life on 4th run @ 10
    3m+
    A 1.00 – Jetstream Jack on 2nd run @ 10
    A 1.30 – Call It Magic on 1st run @ 20
    …………Highland Lodge on 2nd run @ 16
    C 2.30 – Houblon des Obeaux on 4th run @ 10
    C 3.05 – On The Road on 2nd and 3rd run @ 8
    S 1.20 – Holly Bush Henry on 4th run @ 7
    W 1.40 – Nobuttaboy on 3rd run @ 40
    GL

  7. Today’s possibilities….
    Sand’ 12.15 Hold The Note……. 11.0
    Chep’ 12.55 Good & Hardy……. 9.8
    Sand’ 1.50 Dynamite Dollars.. 8.0
    Chep’ 3.40 Eeze A Saint………. 11.0

    Back before the first AW race if anything of interest as usual.

    1. An interesting debutante for Simon Crisford at Wolves in the 6.15 with good sire stats and Crisford does well with his deb’s at the track. 15.8% win. Currently trading at 14.0 but I’m recording it at 11.0. Franny Norton is booked and also has a decent strike rate with deb’s on the AW.

  8. 12.50 chepstow 1pt ew Zara Hope

    1.40 Wetherby 1pt ew Little Bruce 7s

    2.15 Wetherby 1pt ew Aristo Du Plessis 13/2

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