Members Daily Post: 07/12/18 (complete)

Test tip x1, Section 1 (complete), test zone, Sat big race stats/trends

1.All Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

2.Any Tips/Notes (Daily Tips/Festival Tips/other thoughts)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

Sedgefield

1.40 – 

Drums of War (micro going) 20/1 S2A 

Ex S’elance (m dist move) 50/1 

Ubaltique (m dist move) I3 20/1 S2A 

 

Exeter

12.25 – Kalarika (m dist) 30  7/1 

1.00 – 

Gonnabegood (m TJC/runs) w2 14,30 H3 G3 4/1 

Pahaska (m dist/age) I3 G3 10/1 S1 S2 S5 

2.05 – 

Zamdy Man (hncp chase + m class) 12/1 S2 

Dusky Lark (hncp chase) 33/1 

Molineaux (m dist) w2 30 G3 6/1  S1 (ONLY IF 11.00+ BFSP) 

3.10 – 

Firebird Flyer (hncp c) 4/1 

Garrane (m runs) 14,30 H3 G3 3/1 

 

Sandown

1.55 – Early Du Lemo (nov hncp) I1 14/1 S2 S5 

3.00 – Pete The Fete (hncp chase + m dist/runs) H3 I3 G3 7/1 S4  S1 + S5 (ONLY IF 11.00+ BFSP) 

 

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KEY

H1/H3= HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)

G1/G3 = Geegeez GoldSpeed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated

I1/I3 =  Inform Racing Speed Ratings – Top Rated or Top 3

14,30 = Geegeez Goldtrainer form’ indicators14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr3010+ runs last 30 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr

S1-S6 : S = ‘Strategy’ and refers to the ‘advised strategies’ in the link below. S1 = ‘Strategy 1’. Added on morning of racing along with the price. w1won last start.   w2won two starts ago 

Welcome Video 2018/19>>>Watch HERE>>> Welcome Email HERE>>>

Updated: The Jumps Strategies: Where should you start? Some ideas HERE>>> 

‘Flat Strategies/results‘: Flat 2017 Read HERE>>>(updated to end Sept 2018)

‘Jumps Strategies/results’: Jumps 2017/18 Read HERE>>>(updated to end Sept 2018)

Research Articles: (TTP reports/Test Zone/Monthly Articles/Big Meetings Notes) READ HERE>>>

VIDEOS: Members Repository: HERE>>> . All Public (non members only) Videos HERE>>>

More Welcome Info  HERE>>>

Contact: email:  – info@racingtoprofit.co.uk  … or failing that… racingtoprofit@gmail.com 

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2.Any Tips/Notes (Daily Tips/Festival Tips/other thoughts)

Daily Tips (2018: 28/321,100p, -21.2 – on hold) Big Race/Festival Tips (2018: +150)

None.

 

TEST Best of the Stats Quals? (17/68,34p, +7.1 , all 1 point win, all odds) 

1.00 Exet – Gonnabegood – 4/1 (gen)

This one looks worth a go with his light weight here. He’s in the form of is life, as is his trainer (5/13,9p last 14 days), is still open to progress and is one of the few in here proven in a soft ground slog. He just gallops and stays and the fav has that to prove in these testing conditions, which he may well do, but i’m happy to take him on. Most in here have to prove it in soft, let alone anything worse. His races have been working out ok, he races prominently and knows the track well. The one question I think is how he takes to the visor, hopefully he eeks out more. There’s a danger it lights him up and if that’s the case he won’t get home, but I thought he looked the most solid in this in these conditions. Hobbs’ horse may not be far away, the S1 qualifier for C Down could go close- does have stamina to prove in a slog but arrives in form and it’s more of an unknown, so fingers crossed. The R Walford horse is interesting if fit, he is a proper heavy ground slogger. Fitness is the questions and the market may guide, he does need to step forward again but is unexposed enough still. I’d have it between those 4 on my flick through.

That’s all for today. I thought Garrane looked interesting in the chase but 3s didn’t feel overly generous given his chase experience and who knows how he’ll cope in the ground going beyond 26f – he runs as if he may relish it and I suspect he’ll be in there pitching. But that race may go to a ‘been there and done it’ horse with older legs. Was happy to sit it out.

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3.Micro System Test Zone

A Dunn (25/1< guide)

12.50 Sand – Swift Crusader 9/1

Autumn Trainers

2.05 Exet – De Rasher Counter (14/1<) 12/1

R Hobson (33/1< guide)

1.00 Exet – Echo Watt 33/1

V Williams/November (tracking Dec) (16/1< guide)

2.05 Exet – Zamdy Man 12/1

Paddy Brennan (14/1< guide)

2.25 Sand – Mercy Mercy Me 7/1

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Jumps Fact Sheet 2018/19 

LTO Winning Trainers

2.25 Sand – Quoi De Neuf 9/1

Jockeys/Chasers (9/1< best)

2.05 Exet – Molineaux 6/1

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Handicap Chase System Starting Points (10/1< best)

12.50 Sand – Cap St Vincent 11/4

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

 

NEW! I’ve simplified the ‘where should you start‘ doc , looking at the four main jumps strategies: You can read that HERE>>> 

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New members…welcome to the team..

  • The KEY above is your friend… do check out the welcome video and i’d start with the ‘The Strategies: Where Should You Start‘ doc. Its all about the long game. I’m aware it can look a bit busy initially, but for example the ‘test zone’ you can just ignore for now if you wish. 
  • I update the post every morning around 8am with generally available morning odds and also the strategy symbols… for the four main jumps approaches that’s S1 / S2A / S3A# / w1(w1 posted in evening- simply denotes a horse that won LTO) In time you’ll know what to look for when it comes to the strategies using the information posted the evening before + a look at Oddschecker/a price comparison site. So, in time, you will be able to just bet the evening before if that suits you. Or you can just wait until 8.15 am or so! I use morning odds as the guide and to maintain consistency with results. S1 is also attacked using Betfair SP by setting a minimum price of 11.00, IF the S1 horse is under 10/1 on morning odds. I add a note in the morning explaining that. That’s all explained and demonstrated in the welcome video. You’ve probably had enough of my voice for one day, but it’s worth it. Get the popcorn 🙂 
  • S1 and S2A are big odds strategies, hunting out big priced winners with decent ROIs. They can have some tough losing runs but have been profitable for some time stretching back to the start of 2017. If you just wanted to start with one big odds one, i’d make it S1. But they are not for everyone. S3A# and w1 are more focused, find more winners, higher win strike rates, shorter losing runs – but even they have them also. Those two went through the +100 point mark this month, no doubt much bigger if betting the evening before. A good mix of just two would be S1 and S3A#. 
  • REFRESH… do refresh your browser at various points to see any new comments or if I add anything. You can keep track of my posts in the title bar.. you will see ‘upd1’ up there at the moment…you’ll know there’s something new when you see upd2, upd3 etc etc, and then finally ‘complete’, after which point i’ll be done.
  • DO NOT be afraid to ask a question if you’re unsure. You can post a comment or email me. No question is too silly. There are many things that I can always do better, but i try my best. If you have an issue with something, just shout! (politely. we’re a friendly bunch) And take your time. You’re got ages to feel your way in and get your head around everything, use it. And if it’s not for you, fair enough. 🙂

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Saturday Big Race Stats/Trends/Pointers

Complete/all races: Becher/ Grand Sefton/London National/2m Listed Handicap/3m Pertempts Qual:  READ HERE>>>

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

14 Responses

    1. I know am partly to blame for picking her but I don’t even know if that was a bad pick or not given the jockey made no attempt to race there!

      1. Just had a look at the race and then had a look at the BHA website the Stewards had an enquiry into the running of Minella Voucher.
        Comedy Gold go onto britishhorseracing.com and then onto Stewards reports,cannot believe the rubbish that the stewards accept as to why the horse ran badly and amazingly they fined the jockey only £140,well worth a read.
        Colin.

  1. Hobbs – Johnson handicappers, 1 or 2 runs in 90 days:
    Class 1 to 3 – 2.05 Exeter, Awake At Midnight, 2 points win at 4/1; 2.35 Exeter, Westend Story, 1 point win at 14/1.
    Class 4 (not so strong) – 1.00 Exeter, Vango De Vaige, 11/4 now.

    Emma Lavelle handicappers – 1.55 Sandown, Private Malone, 1/2 point each way at 10/1; 2.05 Exeter, De Rasher Counter, 1 point each way at 12/1.

    Good luck.

  2. today’s selections, quite a few today.
    Sandown. 1-55 Kings Walk 8-1
    Sedgefield. 12-10 Northern Sky 16-1
    Sedgefield 1-40. Relkadam 8-1
    Exeter. 1-00 Midnight Monty 12-1 sky 4 places
    Exeter. 2-05 Arthurs Gift 7-1 sky 4 places
    Exeter. 3-10 Yanmare 7-1
    all 1/2 pt ew

  3. Morning,

    Well, we had a winner yesterday, so, back to the drawing board today, Nick I am trying to help you by tipping your selections also, so, you must be picking the right horses!
    12:25 @Exeter racecourse
    KALARIKA 15/2 VC BFR 1 pt win
    MINELLA VOUCHER 12/1 GEN 1 pt win

    As always hope all horses and jockeys come back safe and sound and good luck with whatever you pick today.

  4. Morning All,

    Keep up the great work. This is a fantastic site with very knowledgeable punters and your advice is always welcome. Tony Stafford in his column for geegeez has twice highlighted Apres Le Deluge in his weekly blog and this horse runs today in the 1.30 at Exeter. may be worth a couple of bob eachway?

    Good luck with whatever you back.
    Pat

  5. RECENT TIPS
    Daily
    E 1.00 – Echo Watt on 2nd run @ 40
    S 12.40 – Fisher Green on 7th run @ 40
    S 2.15 – Tavertine on 1st run @ 4
    D 9.00 – Secret Wizard on 2nd run @ 7
    3m+
    E 3.10 – Big Meadow on 4th run @ 10
    ………..Firebird Flyer on 2nd run @ 11/2
    S 1.55 – Lithic on 6th run @ 13/2
    GL

  6. Summary figures for November were….. 3W 39L -4.8pts, so despite getting off to a decent start I ended up down in the hole with most everyone else. Tough month. Todays…..
    Sand’ 1.20 Il Re Di Nessuno 6.2
    Exe’ 2.35 West End Story…… 12.0
    Sand’ 2.50 Flemens Story…… 5.0
    Exe’ 3.10 Malapie……………. 8.6
    Sedg’ 3.20 Enzillerya………… 9.2

    Thursday’s results…… 0W 2L -2.0pts
    Might find something amongst the evening meets, if I do I’ll put it up here before the first AW race goes off.

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