Members Daily Post: 06/12/18 (complete)

Test tips x3 + write ups, Section 1 (complete), test zone, updates

1.All Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

2.Any Tips/Notes (Daily Tips/Festival Tips/other thoughts)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

Leicester

2.45 – Larch Hill (all hncps) 10/1 S2 UP

3.20 – Hoponandsee (all hncps) 12/1 S2 UP

 

Market Rasen

1.20 – Foundation Man (micro class move) 14 13/2  3rd

2.25 – Renwick (all hncps + class + hncp debut) w1 ES+ H3 I3 G1 Evens S3A# S4  UP

3.00 – Rocku (all hncps) ES+ 2/1 S3A 3rd 

3.30 – Lily of Leybourne (m class) H3 I3 G3 3/1 S4 

 

Wincanton

1.30 – 

Flaming Charmer (hncp chase) 30 w1 ES+ H3 12/1 S2 S3A UP

Wizards Bridge (hncp chase) 30 G1 14/1 S1 S2 UP

2.35 – 

Tikkapick (hncp chase + m dist/class move) 30 ES+ 15/2 S3A 2nd 

Lizzie Langton (hncp chase + m dist/class move) 30 ES+H3 G3 11/2 S3A# WON 11/2>6/1 

 

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KEY

H1/H3= HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)

G1/G3 = Geegeez GoldSpeed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated

I1/I3 =  Inform Racing Speed Ratings – Top Rated or Top 3

14,30 = Geegeez Goldtrainer form’ indicators14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr3010+ runs last 30 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr

S1-S6 : S = ‘Strategy’ and refers to the ‘advised strategies’ in the link below. S1 = ‘Strategy 1’. Added on morning of racing along with the price. w1won last start.   w2won two starts ago 

Welcome Video 2018/19>>>Watch HERE>>> Welcome EmailHERE>>>

Updated: The Jumps Strategies: Where should you start? Some ideas HERE>>> 

‘Flat Strategies/results‘: Flat 2017 Read HERE>>>(updated to end Sept 2018)

‘Jumps Strategies/results’: Jumps 2017/18 Read HERE>>>(updated to end Sept 2018)

Research Articles: (TTP reports/Test Zone/Monthly Articles/Big Meetings Notes) READ HERE>>>

VIDEOS: Members Repository: HERE>>> . All Public (non members only) Videos HERE>>>

More Welcome Info  HERE>>>

Contact: email:  – info@racingtoprofit.co.uk  … or failing that… racingtoprofit@gmail.com 

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2.Any Tips/Notes (Daily Tips/Festival Tips/other thoughts)

Daily Tips(2017 Sept-Dec: 31/176, +110.75) (2018: 28/321,100p, -21.2) (1 point win /1 pt EW bets) Big Race/Festival Tips (2018: +150)

 

Big Race/Festival Tips

None on Thursday. NOTE These are mainly at weekends but this is where they live… they are the area I have the best historical record in (+150 points this year, +53 in free posts) and have the most confidence long term. My ‘daily tipping’ has been a bit hit and miss and is an area I need to improve in. So, tipping wise, a case could be made to stick to the big race tips for now! 🙂 There’s a fairly new ‘test’ as below, but you may enjoy reading the write ups if nothing else! I back all tips, inc the test, with my own money and i’m always bullish long term. Many of the members who post regularly have been smashing it out the park with their daily tips for some time..

 

NOTE/CHANGE…outside of Big/Festival races it’s fair to say since the heady heights of last Sept-Dec my approach to ‘daily tipping’ has been a bit stop start… outside of those ‘big races’ i’m going to spend my ‘daily efforts’ on the ‘Test’ below- trying to find the ‘best of’ the stats quals on this page, but i’m going to focus on all odds – rather than that test which started focusing nearer the top of the market – it’s a test for me as much as anything else. Many of you in the comments etc have been far better than I on the daily front (and long may you reign!) and it would be welcome if I could make a useful addition on that front. It may all end in tears but you can do what you please with them – I do need to prove I can use my own stats quals on this page as starting points, using my subjective/form eyes from thereon in, and i’ll be trying hard to build on the below, which has been positive enough… 

 

TEST Best of the Stats Quals? (17/68,34p, +7.1 , all 1 point win, all odds) 

2.05 Winc – Snapdragon Fire – 10/3 (gen) 7/2 (betfS/PP) 2nd 5/1

3.00 MR – Point N Shoot – 3/1 (gen) UP

3.20 Leic- Hoponandsee12/1 (gen) 9/1 (gen) (10s Bet365/Betf/BetB) UP 6/1

that’s all for today, 08.58, write ups…

Snapdragon Fire… I thought this looked to be between the top two and that their prices were the wrong way round. This one is generally progressive bar an aberration at Cheltanham- he never jumped at all well and seemed to have an off day. I hope it was just that, as he’s generally been very consistent in his runs to date, including when winning well LTO. He’s still lightly raced in handicaps, races prominently, responds for pressure and if running his race, will be giving his all under the Champ. The Nicholl’s horse is also open to progress but like many in these silks (i don’t know how they find them/who buys them) he seems to have the odd attitude question. Some of these owner’s horses really don’t like a battle and this one is building up the placed efforts without winning. That may be harsh but 9/4 seems short enough for one who is now 0/8 over hurdles, for a trainer that will win novice races with them if good enough. He also steps up in class here. He did win his first career start in France and maybe his finishing efforts have been down to pulling too hard. We shall see, but for now I was happy to take him on. I think he will have to pass the selection to win.

Point N Shoot… another race that on paper looks between the top two in the market – Skelton’s is being backed as if defeat is out of the question. He’s 0/7,0 in his career, not getting within 30L of anything as yet, has had 617 days off, hood off, tongue tie and CP on.. were that any other name than Skelton next to him, he wouldn’t be 13/8. Maybe he’s burning down the gallops and they know him to have 15+lb in hand from his homework/gallop buddy. But at that price i’m happy to leave him and if he bolts up then so be it. The selection has a good level of form and is still open to progress. He will try and make all here I hope, and if TB can dictate, I don’t think he’ll be far away. Hawke is going well and as per the test zone micro below, has a good record with LTO winners. The 226 day break is the question…but Hawke has been readying a few off similar breaks in recent weeks inc a winner at Haydock yesterday under this jockey, returning from a similar absence in testing ground. He can clearly ready them if he wants to and i’ll take it on trust this one will be ready to roll. The rest of them seem to have plenty of questions but if Skelton’s is no good and mine needs the run, clearly something else will step forward!

Hoponandsee… well she looked the most interesting of the bigger odds quals in Sections 1 and 3 – to my subjective form eyes anyway. Her price is just too big here for a mare who generally tries her best, knows how to win, should race prominently over this trip, and is well enough handicapped with the claim. Her win was over 17f at Newton Abbot, which probably equates to this stiffer 16f here. That was 5 runs ago. She beat a progressive Sherwood horse there who would win well two starts later when stepped up in trip. That was the last time she’s run over 17f< in C5. She ran ok NTO but didn’t find much having travelled well over Stratford’s 19f. The horse that won would go on to win again. She then ran in a small field C4, but only beaten 4 3/4 L, and that would have been under 2l if jumping the last two flights with any fluency. 19f two starts back against the boys/all sexes seemed too much again, but did travel well until stamina appeared to give out, as it did LTO at Uttoxeter. She jumped into second about 3 flights out and briefly looked like being involved, before stamina appeared to give way again. It could be these finishing efforts have been nothing to do with the trip and she’s just had enough, but while the ground remains decent at some tracks, Twister clearly wants to run her. This is also a weak race- the oppo have so many questions. Joseph’s is that price due to him training it, on paper far too much to prove in the context of price. The Greatrex horse is only 3 and I wouldn’t say overpriced, had the odd question now but is unexposed. Bailey’s horse…well she can pull and faded tamely LTO having taken it up approaching the last – having watched it I don’t think that was down to the trip necessarily. I could be wrong, but i’d want to see her find for pressure before taking a single figure price. Fergal’s is 0/15,5p over hurdles… there has to be questions there which makes 5s seem short enough and Connor Brace is at Market Rasen, so doesn’t get that useful 8lb this time either. I’m more than happy for any of those four to beat me at their prices, which one of them may do. But the selection was overpriced to my eyes. Time will tell.

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3.Micro System Test Zone

A Dunn (25/1< guide)

3.10 Winc – Polo The Mumm 8/1 WON 8/1>11/2 

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Jumps Fact Sheet 2018/19

Trainers to Follow 

2.05 Winc – Snapdragon Fire 7/2 2nd

LTO Winning Trainers

3.00 MR – Point N Shoot (12/1< guide) 3/1 UP

Jockeys/Chasers

1.30 Winc – Ruperra Tom 12/1 UP

1.30 Winc – Captain Bucks 11/2 UP

1.30 Winc- Some Chaos (25/1<) 10/3 2nd

2.35 Winc – Lizzie Langton 11/2 WON 11/2>6/1 

2.35 Winc – Lough Derg Mystery 16/1 UP

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Handicap Chase System Starting Points (10/1< best)

1.55 MR – Pookie Pekan 5/4 2nd

2.35 Winc- Kovera 7/4 UP

 

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

 

NEW! I’ve simplified the ‘where should you start‘ doc , looking at the four main jumps strategies: You can read that HERE>>> 

I may record a short, to the point, video explaining it all again. 

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New members…welcome to the team..

  • The KEY above is your friend… do check out the welcome video and i’d start with the ‘The Strategies: Where Should You Start‘ doc. Its all about the long game. I’m aware it can look a bit busy initially, but for example the ‘test zone’ you can just ignore for now if you wish. 
  • I update the post every morning around 8am with generally available morning odds and also the strategy symbols… for the four main jumps approaches that’s S1 / S2A / S3A# / w1(w1 posted in evening- simply denotes a horse that won LTO) In time you’ll know what to look for when it comes to the strategies using the information posted the evening before + a look at Oddschecker/a price comparison site. So, in time, you will be able to just bet the evening before if that suits you. Or you can just wait until 8.15 am or so! I use morning odds as the guide and to maintain consistency with results. S1 is also attacked using Betfair SP by setting a minimum price of 11.00, IF the S1 horse is under 10/1 on morning odds. I add a note in the morning explaining that. That’s all explained and demonstrated in the welcome video. You’ve probably had enough of my voice for one day, but it’s worth it. Get the popcorn 🙂 
  • S1 and S2A are big odds strategies, hunting out big priced winners with decent ROIs. They can have some tough losing runs but have been profitable for some time stretching back to the start of 2017. If you just wanted to start with one big odds one, i’d make it S1. But they are not for everyone. S3A# and w1 are more focused, find more winners, higher win strike rates, shorter losing runs – but even they have them also. Those two went through the +100 point mark this month, no doubt much bigger if betting the evening before. A good mix of just two would be S1 and S3A#. 
  • REFRESH… do refresh your browser at various points to see any new comments or if I add anything. You can keep track of my posts in the title bar.. you will see ‘upd1’ up there at the moment…you’ll know there’s something new when you see upd2, upd3 etc etc, and then finally ‘complete’, after which point i’ll be done.
  • DO NOT be afraid to ask a question if you’re unsure. You can post a comment or email me. No question is too silly. There are many things that I can always do better, but i try my best. If you have an issue with something, just shout! (politely. we’re a friendly bunch) And take your time. You’re got ages to feel your way in and get your head around everything, use it. And if it’s not for you, fair enough. 🙂

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Strategy Results Review: Monday’s recap on Nov and the year to date can be found in yesterday’s members post Section 4, or you can read HERE>>> 

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Saturday Big Race Trends

Looking ahead to the weekend…

  • Becher Chase + Grand Sefton + London National pointers/notes (READ HERE>>>)

Sandown

  • Listed Handicap Hurdle TBC
  • Pertempts Qualifier Handicap Hurdle TBC

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Post Comments

Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

27 Responses

  1. I know he needs to be played late but the ride on Nick Vedder was still very poor! The luck will turn, been a tough period in RTP towers!

    1. Hey Nick after your blistering start to Nov which I believe took you to over +40pts, you’re still around +20pts til now for me. Thanks for posting your tips on here and demonstrating a cool head through the dodgy losing runs, it’s reassuring to know the better times will come again with patience.

  2. Hobbs – Johnson handicappers 5/1 +, 1 or 2 runs in past 90 days – 1.30 Wincanton, Reikers Island, 1 point each way at 6/1 at present.

    1. Thanks for that martin .. have now adapted my own hrb angle on that scenario as well 🙂 brilliant info sir
      gl/gb

  3. Hi josh I’m off to Aintree as well on Saturday, really looking forward it, just hope the numbers hold up, wasn’t too bad last year, if I can spot you I’d be more than happy to buy you a pint or 2! I know you’ll be doing the 2 big chases but would be grateful for a through the card if possible
    I know you have plenty on with the new members & other through the cards so can understand if not
    Still enjoying the blog from a far & thanks for all your efforts

    1. Hi Harry, pints are always well received! 🙂 Yes do say hello if you spot me, I loiter around the parade ring plenty. Yep the two big chases will get most of my attention but i’ll see what I can do on the rest, I won’t promise anything as yet, but as i’m going I should try and have a proper flick through. Only so many hours in the day though 🙂
      Josh

  4. Morning,

    Well, Haydock was a wash out yetserday. Onto today.
    13:30 @Wincanton
    REIKERS ISLAND 11/2 gen 1pt win
    FLAMING CHARMER 12/1 gen 1/2 pt ew

    As always, hope all horses and jockeys come back safe and sound and good luck with whatever you back today!

  5. Hello, I’m one of the new intake and would appreciate any pointers from established members, or any of the new guys for that matter. Thanks.

    1. Hi Fred,
      Thanks for your message.
      First bit of advice is to take your time, it may seem overwhelming to begin with but it should all make sense after a few days I hope!
      There’s the ‘where to start’ strategy document… those four strategies.. you can pick 1 to 4 of them if you wish, and at 8.15am or so each day just look at section 1 and the four symbols… S1, S2A, S3A# and w1 .

      If you want to back one big odds and one with a higher win SR, then S1 and S3A# may be a good option.
      Or S3A# and W1 if you want the two with higher win SR and thus shorter losing runs.

      There’s my big race tips mainly at weekends.

      That’s where i’d start with my content. There’s then the comments.
      Nick has been the star tipster here for an age, a superb 2018 to date…he’s on a poor run at the moment, but in truth he was due one! That’s the nature of the game. Colins Bets have been posted for over a year now also and all chip in with valued contributions etc.
      Its about taking time,enjoying the journey, and we will all win together in the long term – that’s the aim, whatever you follow on these pages.

      Josh

  6. RECENT TIPS
    Daily
    M 1.20 – Showem Silver on 2nd run @ 14
    Festival
    Mey 6.00 – Tadbir on 1st run @ 16
    3m+
    W 1.30 – Royal Palladium on 4th run @ 16
    GL
    Mike

  7. Out of action these past few days due to some seasonal galloping lergy bug but looking forward to bagging some winners in December. Back later with today’s (if any), and November’s summary figures.

  8. COLINS BETS
    2.05 Wincanton Darling Maltaix BOG 9/4
    8.00 Chelmsford Arabic Culture BOG 8/1

    ELITE BETS
    8.30 Chelmsford Saaheq BOG 3/1

  9. Josh – Tnx again for the Ludlow canter – put Tom Symonds in the calendar for next years bumper at this meeting a running on 5th @90 on BF obviously likes this race! Nice novice winner for Nicholls

    1. No problem, yep a couple of nice enough winners at 3s / 7/2 so can’t complain – blank efforts always depressing, 2 winners usually ensures small profit! Yea Symonds horse was exciting turning for home! Jockey hadn’t really moved and I did wonder for a moment – and lived in hope deep into final 2f. A decent effort anyway. Yep looks like a race he targets with his best mare I suspect, certainly 1st time out.

  10. 1.15 clonmel Scarpeta Last year a member put us onto polzeath ratings web sight he liked his 4th place run in the Ballymore N H and mentions it for the staying division .Odds on today but 40/1 for the stayers hdle thought it worth a minimum EW punt

  11. Afternoon all. John Jenkins and David Probert are 60% win 60% place when teaming up in handicaps in the last year. They have Carvelas in the 20.00 at Chelmsford tonight. It’s drifting at 22/1 at the moment but those SR percentages are very rare. Just thought I’d put it out there as a nugget.

    All the best

    1. I’d be interested to know where you got those stats from Mark. I check Trainers & Jockey combos every day on GeeGees reports & this wasn’t mentioned in the 1 Year figures.
      Thanks,
      Steve

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