Members Daily Post: 05/12/18 (complete)

Lud ‘through the card’ / test tips x3 + write ups, Section 1 (complete), test zone, Section 4…

1.All Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

2.Any Tips/Notes (Daily Tips/Festival Tips/other thoughts)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

Ludlow 

1.45 –

Sumkindofking (hncp chase) 14,30 H1 I1 5/2 2nd

Dauphine Erine (micro going IF Soft…TBC 8am)G3

 

Haydock

2.25 – William of Orange (m class) H3 I3 G3 9/1 S4 S1+ S5 (DNQ on S1 drifting angle, BFSP under 11.00) (IF 11.00+ BFSP…welcome video in Key explains how to set a min BFSP price of 11.00 if following S1…this covers those that drift to 10/1 or bigger) 

3.00 -Hills of Dubai (hncp chase) I3 G3 11/2 2nd  S1+ S5(DNQ on drifting angle… IF 11.00+ BFSP…welcome video in Key explains how to set a min BFSP price of 11.00 if following S1…this covers those that drift to 10/1 or bigger) 

 

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KEY

H1/H3= HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)

G1/G3 = Geegeez GoldSpeed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated

I1/I3 =  Inform Racing Speed Ratings – Top Rated or Top 3

14,30 = Geegeez Goldtrainer form’ indicators14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr3010+ runs last 30 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr

S1-S6 : S = ‘Strategy’ and refers to the ‘advised strategies’ in the link below. S1 = ‘Strategy 1’. Added on morning of racing along with the price. w1won last start.   w2won two starts ago (tracking as of 15th Feb 2018)

NEW! Welcome Video 2018/19>>>Watch HERE>>>   Welcome Email HERE>>>

The Strategies: Where should you start? Some ideas HERE>>> 

‘Flat Strategies/results‘: Flat 2017 Read HERE>>>(updated to end Sept 2018)

‘Jumps Strategies/results’: Jumps 2017/18 Read HERE>>>(updated to end Sept 2018)

Research Articles: (TTP reports/Test Zone/Monthly Articles/Big Meetings Notes) READ HERE>>>

VIDEOS: Members Repository: HERE>>> . All Public (non members only) Videos HERE>>>

More Welcome Info  HERE>>> 

Contact: email:  – info@racingtoprofit.co.uk  … or failing that… racingtoprofit@gmail.com 

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2.Any Tips/Notes (Daily Tips/Festival Tips/other thoughts)

Daily Tips(2017 Sept-Dec: 31/176, +110.75) (2018: 28/321,100p, -21.2) (1 point win /1 pt EW bets) Big Race/Festival Tips (2018: +150)

 

Big Race/Festival Tips

None on Wednesday. NOTE These are mainly at weekends but this is where they live… they are the area I have the best historical record in (+150 points this year, +53 in free posts) and have the most confidence long term. My ‘daily tipping’ has been a bit hit and miss and is an area I need to improve in. So, tipping wise, a case could be made to stick to the big race tips for now! 🙂 There’s a fairly new ‘test’ as below, but you may enjoy reading the write ups if nothing else! I back all tips, inc the test, with my own money and i’m always bullish long term. Many of the members who post regularly have been smashing it out the park with their daily tips for some time..

 

NOTE/CHANGE…outside of Big/Festival races it’s fair to say since the heady heights of last Sept-Dec my approach to ‘daily tipping’ has been a bit stop start… outside of those ‘big races’ i’m going to spend my ‘daily efforts’ on the ‘Test’ below- trying to find the ‘best of’ the stats quals on this page, but i’m going to focus on all odds – rather than that test which started focusing nearer the top of the market – it’s a test for me as much as anything else. Many of you in the comments etc have been far better than I on the daily front (and long may you reign!) and it would be welcome if I could make a useful addition on that front. It may all end in tears but you can do what you please with them – I do need to prove I can use my own stats quals on this page as starting points, using my subjective/form eyes from thereon in, and i’ll be trying hard to build on the below, which has been positive enough… 

 

TEST Best of the Stats Quals? (17/65,33p, +10.1 , all 1 point win, all odds) 

1.45 Lud – Gardiners Hill – 3/1 (gen)  UP, poor. 

2.50 Lud – Destined to Shine – 11/8 (gen) 7/4 (Lad/Coral) UP, never settled.

3.00 Hayd- Hills of Dubai– 6/1 (gen) 2nd 11/2

as of 09.09, write ups…

 

Gardniners Hill.. well a couple of ‘shorties’ today that 6 weeks ago I wouldn’t have bothered looking at such was my blinkered approach to horses under 8s! But it’s a test for that reason and if I can make +10 points a month with this ‘best of stats quals’ approach, that would be decent enough. This one is from the test zone and on all known form/recent form I thought he should be fav in this, esp assuming the ground will be on the soft side, which the George horse has it to prove- he may be fine on it, but all his form is on good/good to firm, so to my eyes that made 5/2 short enough. I may have that wrong. This one seems to have turned a corner and is progressive over fences. He bolted up three starts back and did so again two starts back at the track – that win was far easier than the winning distance suggested albeit i’d like Sean to try and build up a decent lead before the last this time, as it’s a short enough run in. He beat an in form horse that day. He ran again over hurdles LTO and he’s a better chaser. I suspect they went a tad quick for him there but it was still a decent run. He prefers soft and I thought he was the one to beat. These quick runs may catch up with him eventually but he wasn’t overly stretched in his two chase wins and didn’t appear to have a hard race at all. I thought 3s still offered a shade of value.

Destined to Shine… I wouldn’t have been overly surprised to see him at evens or even odds on, so to my eyes 11/8 looked decent enough. He is the one to beat. He hacked up at Hereford on rain softened ground and his form is working out well. His 2nd two starts back was just in front of an Ian Williams horse who has since bolted up at Donny. Lee seems to be going better now, the young jockey is in form and visually the horse looks big – I don’t think the actual weight will be a problem. The Candlish horse has a lower level of form, has to prove he stays, and has to prove himself on the going in a handicap. I was happy to take him on, as I was O’Briens – he may be the main danger. He is unexposed but hasn’t won yet and has much more to prove than the selection. If Destined runs his race I thought he’d win this, hopefully fairly comfortably.

Hills of Dubai… appears to be taking a walk in the market which is always uncomfortable and even more so with one making seasonal reappearance as it may suggest he’ll need it. However he won after 298 days in Jan of this year and can clearly go well fresh, and McCain can get them fit if he wants them to be. His best two runs of his career were that run and the one after. He then stepped up to a C3, ran ok on the first of them which was after 49 days (an odd break, maybe he missed some work) and then ran 17 days after that- he could have been feeling the efforts of that Haydock run- they were all beaten there by a progressive 130s horse from Snowden’s yard but he stayed on well enough to the line. He likes to make all and is the only horse in the race proven in Heavy, certainly in handicaps. He jumped very well generally in those four runs and I hope Hughes is aggressive on him. The trip is a slight question but he’s well worth another go over it and may improve for it. I thought he could just be galloping on when the rest have given up. The Smith and King horses are dangers but I wanted a hardier more proven one here in what could be a slog. One of them may take it – they are 5YO open to progress, but were short enough given the questions, esp the going. It’s teeming down in Liverpool and appears to be doing the same up the road at Haydock. Flippers may be required! If this one keeps walking in the market I may know my fate but hopefully the other two will have won by then!

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3.Micro System Test Zone

D Pipe PU (14/1< guide, 11/1< best)

1.45 Lud – Dauphine Ereine 9/1 UP

V Williams November (tracking into Dec) (16/1< guide)

1.45 Lud – Uhlan Bute 10/1 UP

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Jumps Fact Sheet 2018 (read HERE>>>)

LTO Winning Hurdlers 

2.50 Lud – Destined To Shine 5/4 UP

LTO Winning Trainers

2.15 Lud -The Clockisticking (12/1< guide) 9/2

Trainers to Follow 

2.25 Hayd – Taxmeifyoucan (11/1< guide)  11/1 UP

12.20 Hayd – Quri 8/13 2nd

Jockeys/Chasers

1.45 Lud – Gardiners Hill (9/1< best) 7/2 UP

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

New members…welcome to the team…

  • The KEY above is your friend… do check out the welcome video and i’d start with the ‘The Strategies: Where Should You Start‘ doc. Its all about the long game. I’m aware it can look a bit busy initially, but for example the ‘test zone’ you can just ignore for now if you wish. 
  • I update the post every morning around 8am with generally available morning odds and also the strategy symbols… for the four main jumps approaches that’s S1 / S2A / S3A# / w1(w1 posted in evening- simply denotes a horse that won LTO) In time you’ll know what to look for when it comes to the strategies using the information posted the evening before + a look at Oddschecker/a price comparison site. So, in time, you will be able to just bet the evening before if that suits you. Or you can just wait until 8.15 am or so! I use morning odds as the guide and to maintain consistency with results. S1 is also attacked using Betfair SP by setting a minimum price of 11.00, IF the S1 horse is under 10/1 on morning odds. I add a note in the morning explaining that. That’s all explained and demonstrated in the welcome video. You’ve probably had enough of my voice for one day, but it’s worth it. Get the popcorn 🙂 
  • S1 and S2A are big odds strategies, hunting out big priced winners with decent ROIs. They can have some tough losing runs but have been profitable for some time stretching back to the start of 2017. If you just wanted to start with one big odds one, i’d make it S1. But they are not for everyone. S3A# and w1 are more focused, find more winners, higher win strike rates, shorter losing runs – but even they have them also. Those two went through the +100 point mark this month, no doubt much bigger if betting the evening before. A good mix of just two would be S1 and S3A#. 
  • REFRESH… do refresh your browser at various points to see any new comments or if I add anything. You can keep track of my posts in the title bar.. you will see ‘upd1’ up there at the moment…you’ll know there’s something new when you see upd2, upd3 etc etc, and then finally ‘complete’, after which point i’ll be done.
  • DO NOT be afraid to ask a question if you’re unsure. You can post a comment or email me. No question is too silly. There are many things that I can always do better, but i try my best. If you have an issue with something, just shout! (politely. we’re a friendly bunch) And take your time. You’re got ages to feel your way in and get your head around everything, use it.

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Strategy Results Review: Yesterday’s recap on Nov and the year to date can be found in yesterday’s members post Section 4, or you can read HERE>>> 

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Saturday Big Race Trends

Looking ahead to the weekend…

Aintree

Sandown

  • London National
  • Listed Handicap Hurdle
  • Pertempts Qualifier Handicap Hurdle

I’ve pulled together some pointers for The Becher, for those of you who like using that research to help find your own bets etc. The Grand Sefton and London National will definitely follow – i’ll try and get those done on Wednesday. Time allowing i’ll have a look at the two handicap hurdles from Sandown also. The three chases will ‘get the treatment’ and i’m off to Aintree on Sat so I wouldn’t mind backing a winner or two! 

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Ludlow ‘Through The Card’ Pointers.

Below… One of you is off to the races on Wednesday and for some reason only known to him has requested some ‘through the card’ pointers from myself! 🙂 I try and pick out one horse per race, so that it gives said racegoer room to pick their own, which you have to do on a day out. ..

As always, some caution as to what follows, (this message mainly aimed at just one of you!)…it’s been a 10 minute flick through…sometimes 2/3/4 winners, sometimes a blowout…

12.10 – Field Exhibition 2nd

12.40 – Longhousesignora 3rd

1.10- Giveaway Glance WON 3/1 

1.45 – Gardiners Hill – (test tip section 2) UP

2.15 – The Clock is Ticking / Cap De Princeau WON 7/2  (one of top 2 prob wins, but for track side interest,both these also open to progress and are race fit)

2.50 – Destined To Shine (test tip section 2) UP

3.20 – Northern Princess PU/ Lugg River UP, outran odds  (trainer won this race last year with a 40/1 shot, so worth some change for fun I think)

Best of luck and never let what I say put you off your own track-side fancies…

 

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I think that will do for one day 🙂 Unless i’ve forgotten something. As always any questions/thoughts etc fire away. Tuesday’s post comments may be worth a flick through… well a decent chat about NHF runners, and I posted up a micro of sorts. I won’t repeat that here today as too much going on but it’s likely I may throw that angle into the test zone and we can see how it goes.

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Post Comments

Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

30 Responses

  1. Hi Josh. Early request. Mickeydee and I along with a couple of golfing buddies are heading Kelso on Sunday for the Borders National meeting. Will you be looking at this race? Also if possible, could you do a run through the card? Thanks

    1. Hi Ken…ah it’s like London busses! I will definitely have a look at the big chase… I won’t promise a through the card at this point in time! Hopefully the stats quals etc may do the work for me… Sunday’s always tricky as I try and go easy and that race will take an hour+ depending on runners etc… probably unlikely but remind me in Sunday’s post and i’ll do my best. I may have conked out by then 🙂
      Josh

  2. I cant seem to even land in the vicinity of the barn at the moment but not in the slightest bit disheartened.

    Nayati Haydock 14:25 1pt e/w-Has some good juvenile form last year and ran well on re-appearance behind a horse which has won 2 since on ground which was probably faster than ideal. He than disappointed on ground which was declared good/firm halfway through the day on a day when there were a number of non-runners due to the ground so wouldn’t be concerned about that. All his form best form is on soft or worse and the fact he won over 15f on the flat 14 months ago in France I think the step up in trip will suit.
    Udontdodou Kempton 18:00 1pt e/w-This looks very much his level and his record on the AW off 60+ days reads 1112 including a 2nd off 2lbs higher back in March. Trainer is 4/16 in the past 30 days so in good form including a winner with his last runner. Looks to have a solid chance.

    1. Nick
      It is only a matter of time before the turnaround in fortunes and for me the end of the flat and the NH in November and December so far been pretty poor and surly must go up a notch soon.
      Lets hope today is the day.
      All the best
      Colin

    2. I had what i thought was a terrible November, had a handful of winners and then found once i had done my sums, was only down about 5pts. It was a funny month November, going was a bit funny for the time of year, trainers bemoaning no rain etc. We have the rain now and the non runners are for going concerns the other way, as punters we cannot win…Or can we?
      I believe you always have to keep adapting and

    3. Yea you’ve lost the plot Nick! 🙂 I mean I don’t think your +496 points, and approx 35% ROI up to end of Nov18 were quite cutting it!! ha. You were making the game look far too easy, the betting gods are just playing with you for a couple of weeks, before you put them back in their box. Onwards. To glory.

      1. Nick needs to pick up by 2019 as I am going to start logging profit on the selections I post then and I am after his Naps King title. He will be treating me to a meal and it will not be pie and mash!

  3. Tim Vaughan in the North – 12.50 Haydock, Modern Warfare, 6/1 now, 1 point each way.
    Jim Goldie on the all weather at Newcastle, up to 12 furlongs, class 4 to 6. 7.15 Thello, 8/1 now; 8.15 Star Cracker, 7/1 now. Both 1 point each way.

    Good luck.

  4. I seem to have forgotten to post no selections yesterday. Same today owing to small fields. If I go awol this week it is due to family health matters which are seeing me spend a lot of time up and down the M1 at present. Not fun.
    Hugh

  5. Morning,

    What a dire race (as predicted) the 15:00 at Southwell was, all horses totally strung out with the washing and to be fair the only two that went in that ground finished 1st and second.
    Maybe one day i will learn that when the racing is that atrocious, stay away!
    Anyway onto today, maybe i sholdn`t have picked Nick`s, but to quote a once famous punter, “You and thousands of others are doing exactly the same on a daily basis, so, it is inevitable you will pick the same horses as a lot of other people most of the time!”.

    14:25 @Haydock Park
    NAYATI 8/1 gen 1pt win
    CHAMPAGNE CITY 7/1 gen 1pt win

    All the best and hope all horses and jockeys come back safe and sound!

  6. Josh i know you have to have a cut off point for going micro’s but with heavy rain forecast for Ludlow all morning and well into the afternoon i would be very surprised if the going was soft at best by 3-00pm and Dauphine Ereine is one of my selections anyway so let’s hope you shouldn’t have crossed it off 🙂

    1. Hi Martin… yep it’s not impossible it’s proper soft by race time, but with those going ones I have to cut off at 8 and the track update was 7.58 and after 8mm still officially GS. Haydock may be heavy also etc but that’s just how it is 🙂 That pipe horse will no doubt bolt up now and be 10s+ for S1, gulp, but won’t count. I have to keep consistent on that front, I can’t have a systematic approach in section one that requires checking ground through the day sadly. Best of luck.

      1. Josh – Thanks for though the card canter – some common ground with my thoughts 🙂 which will form the core of the day
        Good spot in the bumper – certainly worth throwing some change at that
        Been heavy rain just outside Cheltenham (Note for next weekend) and Ludlow looks like it might get a downpour mid afternoon

        1. No bother, have fun. Hopefully you have a few to cheer home, we shall see! Would be fun if symonds won the bumper again, you can dream. Yep the rains appear to have arrived, certainly up north.
          best of luck.

  7. COLINS BETS
    Newcastle
    7.15 Nick Vedder BOG 13/8
    7.45 Breathoffreshair BOG 15/8
    Kempton
    7.30 Viola Park BOG 4/1

    ELITE BETS
    No bet

  8. LONGSHOT…Sun
    Just a heads up with the above since he started on Oct 24th he is 45pts up BOG 56pts up. His last 3 selections won at 8s, 20s, and 14s. Todays sel is RUBY RUSSETT 12.40 Lud 11/1.

    GL

    Mike

  9. Just recently someone said follow Greatrex NHF 1st out
    MADAM MALINA 3.20 Lud 16/1
    Also there is an Irish trainer with one runner at Haydock in the NHF
    EBONY JEWELL 3.30 H 6/1

    Mike

    1. I have explored both of these micros in the past and they were not profitable. However that does not mean things may change?

      Good luck Martin

      PS get on Vintage Clouds for the Grand National whilst the 25/1 is still about.

  10. Josh, it would be good if you put that micro (NHF+Heavy) in the test zone right now with the weather getting wintry 🙂 Thanks.

  11. RECENT TIPS
    Daily
    K 7.00 – Echo Cove on 7th run @ 33
    N 5.15 – Totally Magic on 8th run @ 11/2
    N 6.45 – Foxrush Take Time on 6th and 7th run @ 16
    N 7.15 – Picketts Charge on 4th run @ 8
    Festival
    K 6.30 – Via Via on 3rd run @ 25
    GL

    figs up to 2/12/18 on end of Mondays post
    Mike

  12. Out of action these past few days due to some seasonal galloping lergy bug but looking forward to bagging some winners in December. Back later with today’s (if any), and November’s summary figures.

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