Members Daily Post: 04/12/18 (complete)

Test Tips x2 (slight change in approach) Section 1 (complete), test zone, strategy/test zone results update/chat

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack

2.Any Tips/Notes (Daily Tips/Festival Tips/other thoughts)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack

 

Southwell

12.30 – Dawnieriver (micro dist/age) w2 w1 H1 I1 G1 6/4 S4 2nd 

2.00 –

Jeannot De Nonant (all hncps 5 yrs) ES+ G3 8/1 S3A S1  UP  (qualified on drifting rule, UP)   (S1 IF 11.00+ BFSP- this covers any drifters from morning price. You can set this minimum price in betfair at a time that suits you, and the bet will only be matched if 11.00+ BFSP. I explain how to do this in the welcome video in the Key)

Crosspark (hncp h 5 yrs) w1 ES+ H3 I3 5/2 S3A# WON 5/2>6/4 

Smooth Stepper (all hncps) w2 I3 18/1 S2A S5 UP

Wemyss Point (m TJC) w2 w1 H3 9/2 UP

Henryville  (all hncps)  ES+

3.00 –

Concealed Ambition (hncp h) 33/1 UP

Winido (hncp h) 20/1 S2A UP

Tower of Allen (all hncps) G3 10/1 S1 S2 4th 

 

Fakenham

12.40 –

Willyegolassiego (all hncps 5 yrs, hncp h) ES+ 6/1 S3A UP

Todd (hncp h) H3 I1 G3 5/1 S4  S1+S5 (IF 11.00+ BFSP) NR

1.10 -Zen Master (all hncps) H3 I3 G3 9/2 S4 S1+S5 (IF 11.00+ BFSP)  UP

3.10 – General Bux (hncp h) H3 5/4 2nd 

 

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KEY

H1/H3= HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)

G1/G3 = Geegeez GoldSpeed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated

I1/I3 =  Inform Racing Speed Ratings – Top Rated or Top 3

14,30 = Geegeez Goldtrainer form’ indicators14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr3010+ runs last 30 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr

S1-S6 : S = ‘Strategy’ and refers to the ‘advised strategies’ in the link below. S1 = ‘Strategy 1’. Added on morning of racing along with the price. w1won last start.   w2won two starts ago (tracking as of 15th Feb 2018)

NEW! Welcome Video 2018/19>>>Watch HERE>>>

The Strategies: Where should you start? Some ideas HERE>>> 

‘Flat Strategies/results‘: Flat 2017 Read HERE>>>(updated to end Sept 2018)

‘Jumps Strategies/results’: Jumps 2017/18 Read HERE>>>(updated to end Sept 2018)

Research Articles: (TTP reports/Test Zone/Monthly Articles/Big Meetings Notes) READ HERE>>>

VIDEOS: Members Repository: HERE>>> . All Public (non members only) Videos HERE>>>

IMPORTANT: More Welcome Info  HERE>>> (please read) (inc must watch videos :)) 

Contact: email:  – info@racingtoprofit.co.uk  … or failing that… racingtoprofit@gmail.com 

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2.Any Tips/Notes (Daily Tips/Festival Tips/other thoughts)

Daily Tips(2017 Sept-Dec: 31/176, +110.75) (2018: 28/321,100p, -21.2) (1 point win /1 pt EW bets) Big Race/Festival Tips (2018: +150)

 

Big Race/Festival Tips

None today. These are mainly at weekends but this is where they live… they are the area I have the best historical record in (+150 points this year, +53 in free posts) and have the most confidence long term. My ‘daily tipping’ has been a bit hit and miss and is an area I need to improve in. So, tipping wise, a case could be made to stick to the big race tips for now! 🙂 There’s a fairly new ‘test’ as below, but you may enjoy reading the write ups if nothing else! I back all tips, inc the test, with my own money and i’m always bullish long term. Many of the members who post regularly have been smashing it out the park with their daily tips for some time.. 

 

Daily Tips

NONE

NOTE/CHANGE…outside of Big/Festival races it’s fair to say since the heady heights of last Sept-Dec my approach to ‘daily tipping’ has been a bit stop start… outside of those ‘big races’ i’m going to spend my ‘daily efforts’ on the ‘Test’ below- trying to find the ‘best of’ the stats quals on this page, but i’m going to focus on all odds – rather than that test which started focusing nearer the top of the market – it’s a test for me as much as anything else. Many of you in the comments etc have been far better than I on the daily front (and long may you reign!) and it would be welcome if I could make a useful addition on that front. It may all end in tears but you can do what you please with them – I do need to prove I can use my own stats quals on this page as starting points, using my subjective/form eyes from thereon in, and i’ll be trying hard to build on the below, which has been positive enough… with that said… 

 

TEST Best of the Stats Quals? (17/62,32p, +13.1 , all 1 point win, all odds) 

1.00 South – Eureu Du Boulay – 12/1 (gen) UP – poor, moving on. Not sure his jockey gave him much confidence, sadly a worse round than his debut, which was decent enough. Maybe he needs further and just found it happening all a bit too quickly.

3.00 South – Tower of Allen – 11/1 (gen) 4th, ran ok, looked like may get closer but flattened out in the mud I think.

as of 08.40, write ups…

Eureu – Hobson’s had a couple of horses run better in recent days but many of his have gone off at big prices, seemingly unfancied as yet. They didn’t keep this one over hurdles for very long but his second at Uttoxeter reads very well (the horse that beat him of Skelton’s climbed the ratings). He made a promising enough start over fences when unfancied but was moving into 2nd/3rd as they turned for home, before tiring. Hobson is 9/38,15p with chasers in handicaps that have had 1-9 runs over fences, +24 BFSP. He’s 3/11,5p in 2018 with such types, 9/30,12p with those sent off 12/1 or shorter. I suspect they may be aggressive with him here and he can put that limited chase experience to good use. He’s in the ‘could be anything’ category and should come on for that last run. 12s felt a tad overpriced here in an open enough race. It’s an interesting one and there are some ok horses in here, who would do well if transferring their hurdles form etc. I can dream of this one putting them to the sword from the front. He has chase wins in him i’m sure.

Tower of Allen- this one makes his second start of the season when unfancied LTO and steps back up in trip which should suit. He was visibly outpaced there and no doubt needed it. The yard have been going better in recent days, including a winner. Hales is 3/10,6p here in handicap hurdles in the last 2 years and has booked STD – he’s 1/4 on the yard’s hurdlers and it looks a positive to me. That Market Rasen run two starts back, his first after wind surgery, was decent, in and around  horses rated higher/and/or who won again and climbed the ratings. They may be more aggressive here but he’s unexposed in handicaps still and has a future. Maybe it will be over fences if he takes to them again but this looks an open enough race and I thought he could be a few points too big. It would be another welcome winner for S1 also. There’s money for the Morgan horse which is of some intrigue, we shall see how that one goes. The fav looks a bit of a monkey to me and is worth leaving at those odds, in my view anyway, but the yard are on fire. This race is there for the taking and hopefully plenty need the runs etc.

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3.Micro System Test Zone

Richard Hobson (33/1< guide)

1.00 South – Eureu Du Boulay 14/1 UP 12/1

Tom Lacey 

2.30 South – Dorking Cock 14/1 UP

A Dunn (25/1< guide)

1.00 South – Swift Crusador

Autumn Trainers

1.10 Fake- Balibour 7/1 3rd

Jumps Fact Sheet 2018/19 

Trainers to Follow

2.30 South – Dorking Cock 14/1 UP

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NOTE: any test zone angle with the words ‘best’ or ‘guide’ in brackets with a price are intended to offer guidance, esp if using as starting points. Any horse sent off above the ‘best’ or ‘guide’ price is still included in results. Unlike those with a price then < (ie 16/1<, or 5/1<) as with those angles I’ve deemed enough evidence for there to be a price limit. Those with ‘best’ or ‘guide’ I have not. In any case, arguably price is always a guide but you can do with that info that as you please, if you do use the test zone etc. 

 

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

 

Strategy Results Update: Spreadsheet HERE>>>

 

Of Note, to browse through as you please, always worth a flick through! 🙂

Those ‘where should you start’ strategies from Section 1 ..> S1, S2A, S3A/S3A# and w1 

Jumps

S1 (10/1+ morning odds, and/or 11.00+ BFSP if shorter on morn odds)

NOV 2018: 1/32,7p, -19 , -17.7 BFSP

2018 to date: 8/119, 32p, +17 , +61.3 BFSP

 

S2A (16/1+ morning odds entered next to horse around 8am) 

NOV 2018:

  • Win only : 0/37,11p, -37, -37 BFSP
  • ½ EW: 0/37,11p, -11.1
  • 1 point EW: 0/37,11p, -22.2

2018 to date:

  • Win only : 10/197, 41p, +17.6, +65.8 BFSP
  • ½ EW: 10/197, 41p, +35
  • 1 point EW: 10/197, 41p, +70

 

S3A (Elite Squad+, ie ES+

NOV 2018: 8/34, 14p, +11

2018 to date: 49/218, 73p, +53.86

 

S3A# (ES+, +double/treble rated) 

NOV 2018: 4/12,8p, +5.75

2018 to date:  39/122, 58p, +60.94

 

W1 (won LTO) 

NOV 2018: 4/37,10p, -16.17

2018 to date: 46/176, 66p, +33

 

Section 3: Test Zone

OCT 2018 : 5/53,10p, -6.5

+ Autumn Trainers: 5/31,9p, +0.63

NOV 2018: 11/85, 29p, +34 

+Autumn Trainers: 3/10,5p, +14.53

2018 to date: +88.46

Jumps Fact Sheet 2018/19

Started NOV 2018, Total: 30/126, 49p, +23.51

  • Trainers to follow : 12/46,19p, +11.86
  • LTO winning hurdlers: 3/9,5p, -1.62
  • LTO winning trainers: 4/22,8p,+10.07
  • Jockeys / Chasers: 11/48, 17p, +4.2
  • Daly / Johnson: 0/1,0p, -1

Total Test Zone 2018 to date End Nov: +112

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Thoughts…

The two ‘big odds’ strategies in Jumps S1 and S2A have had a tough couple of months but the overall figures still look decent. The placed stats are solid enough for S1 and with 24 horses just placing so far this year, those figures may have looked healthier with a tad more luck. But we can’t complain at that BFSP ROI and nor can we with S2A. November was maybe a month where the more cautious EW approach limited damage somewhat. Both are a handful of winners away from the win SRs they’ve hit before but they are very much there to land on the biggies that fall in every now and then. Not for the faint hearted but again that’s why starting small and building up is the key.

The Elite Squad+  aka S3A/S3A# are just looking solid now, especially the latter which combines the ‘best of’ the stats quals (S3A) with 2 or more ratings pointers (red symbols in Key) (thus becoming S3A#) 🙂 . Logically, touch wood, that continues to trundle along but i’d take +60 points every year from that angle alone, esp the rather decent ROI of 50%.

w1had it’s first tough month, which it may have been due, but that’s clipping along at a 20% ROI and if it can continue to do that moving forward I think we’d take it!

Sizing Tennessee 18/1>12/1 ensured a good start to December for S2A / w1…

w1 now 2/4, +19 in the first 3 days of the month, to make those stats above look a tad better again, back to +52

 

The Test Zone…

This was boosted this month thanks to a 66/1 winner for the A Dunn angle. I will update the micro angle results this week at some point hopefully so you can see how they’ve done individually for the year to date but as a systematic portfolio they’re on +88 or so.

The ‘Fact Sheet’ was new at the start of November, and as a portfolio that’s been a decent enough start. +23.5 points. You can see the breakdown above.

All of the ‘test zone’ angles have continued to churn out the winners and if nothing else offer promise as a ‘starting point’. I could do with trying to land on a few more myself, esp in the ‘Best of’ test in Section 2!

But, as always, that’s all presented to use/interrogate/ignore as you please. 🙂

In terms of Section 1 the aim has always been to create a +100 point strategy over the year from a small portfolio and any combination of 2 of the 4 above (S1, S2A, S3A#, w1) has achieved that so far, in addition to any Flat strategies also.

As always any questions etc welcome,

Josh

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

18 Responses

  1. Hi Josh, thanks for the update, very interesting. I’m afraid I lack the necessary cojones for S1 and S2A but as for the remainder I have had a few nice winners so many thanks.

    I was wondering if you had ever done any research into NHF races? I’ve been looking at them quite a bit since the season started properly and it’s clear that some trainers make hay with these contests. While SPs are shortish, the strike rate of favourites looks high. I don’t have HRB or other research tools so I wondered if you or fellow members with appropriate resources would care to look into this area (I get the feeling that your average punter swerves these races, which might give us an edge if we can unearth some micros based around certain trainers, courses and forecast SP).

    I realise you already work very hard for us so no worries if you don’t fancy it. Or you may have already looked and found nothing concrete. But I think there are a few winners out there waiting for us!

    All the best.

    1. There are 4 trainers worth keeping an eye on. N Gifford, T Lacey, Noel Williams and Suzy Smith. The strike rates for all are around the 15% mark with one or two wins over 20/1, a couple more around 14/1 and most much shorter. I wouldn’t ever attempt to focus on these races for many reasons. The four I mention together show around 50% roi from about 200 bets in 4 years. Get yourself HRB! any other historical research without the aid of a database is futile in my opinion!

    2. Warren Greatrex used to be the man to follow with first time bumper runners with the theory that he had them more fit first time out than most but after being almost flawless on that account in 2014 (10/11) he has been more or less break even. Taking early prices will still probably pay given they generally get backed. His 2018 was better than 2015-2017 so potentially they have been less backed recently.

      1. Thanks for the guidance Nick and Chris. I would still be interested if the track and/or time of the season has any impact but without HRB would be tricky.

        Thanks anyway

    3. Hi Mark,
      Sorry for the delay, been a busy day 🙂
      It’s not an area I tend to get too excited with from a systematic approach and trainer angles can get spotted quick, and noted in markets etc – well that’s the feeling i get. They need the horses also, so one year can differ from the next, but I suppose you could say that about any approach – and I suppose there’s something psychological about backing horses yet to have run on the track, who may throw away their race beforehand, and where you’re relying on the trainer stats and market to guide- systematically – that can of course be used along with breeding and I suppose any relatives / damns / half siblings that won on debut or won a NHF is a positive, esp if such relatives were trained by the trainer.

      Anyway..there is an angle hidden away in my HRB account which hasn’t had any qualifiers for a time.

      I looked at those trainers who do well in Heavy ground NHF races… B Ellison / P Hobbs/ N Meade/ N Mulholland / J Snowden / NTD / E Williams.

      Since start of 2013, with 14/1< or shorter as a guide price (no winners above that to SP, odd place, but not many runners) .. 163 bets / 55 winners / 91 places (inc wins) / 34% win SR / +90 SP / +133 BFSP Taking 'opening show odds' 10 mins before the off was worth a massive +112 more points above the SP figure. This covers all NHF runners, regardless of how many runs they've had. There is some logic there with those yards, I suspect the horses they buy, the time of year they target and how fit they get them etc. And many of those trainers will be aiming to get long term chasing prospects so it makes sense that some of theirs just keep grinding away in the mud when many others have given up. This year they are 11/40, 22p, +15 BFSP. The AE only 1.02 this year mind. But still solid. There's only been 2 qualifiers since the start of October. Maybe I need to throw those in the Test Zone! 🙂 Josh

      1. Thanks for that Josh, much appreciated. I know you’ve been busy because I’ve had about a gazillion emails from other racing sites telling me about your members club!

        Good luck with the recruitment drive and thanks again for the NHF advice.

      2. Paddy Brennan riding Fergal O’Brien bumper horses seemed profitable last year but haven’t tracked it this season.

  2. The Captain Fakenham 12:40 1pt e/w 16/1
    Tomngerry Southwell 14:00 1pt e/w 7/1
    Barley Hill Southwell 15:00 1pt e/w 8/1

  3. Dawnieriver, 12.30 Southwell, goes for the Michael Scudamore handicap chasers angle. But is is short at 11/8.

    Emma Lavelle has a handicap runner, Balibour, 1.10 Fakenham, 7/1 at present.

  4. RT +1.75
    1150 Lin Lord Murphy 4/1
    1220 Lin Shamlan 9/2 & Mossys Lodge 15/2
    120 Lin La Fortuna 11/1
    220 So Alsvinder 9/1 & Captain Lars 10/1

  5. Yesterday was dire, suppose the only glimmer was that i am now sat with 3 ante post tickets on ULTRAGOLD 25/1 (now as low as 12/1) BLAKLION 10/1 (now as low as 5/1) and SHANAHANS TURN 16/1 (now as low as 6/1) , after the 5 day decs were announced.
    I really enjoy the Becher meeting and now it is close to Christmas (moved from the November meet, when it was split in to two days), it is a great ante post market, because you already know most of the horses long term targets once the decs come out at the beginning of November.
    I know it`s not most peoples cup of tea, but, if ever anything was to tempt you into it I implore people when the decs come out next year to look at the long term targets and se if you can`t unearth one/two horses that you know are going for the National and will have to run over these magnificent fences before going on for a crack at the big one.
    Even though the fences are “dumbed” down these days, it is still a proper test of stamina and most don`t last the course!
    Anyway, after all that I have one for today, again dire racing today.
    15:00 Southwell
    OOLOGIST 15/2 gen 1/2 pt win

    As always, hope all horses and jockeys come back safe and sound.

    1. Well done with those prices Stewart. I clearly haven’t learnt from last year where I flagged Black Lion for Beecher a long way out on here/free post- well, a few weeks before! When he was 8s/10s and of course I didn’t act on it and on the day felt I had to take him on at the odds, even though that felt foolish!
      Next year! 🙂 (i just have not trained my brain for AP betting, i’m so day to day, and I should probably focus on improving their first haha)
      Best of luck!
      Josh

  6. instant expert system
    0/5 2 places -3.85 pts
    3.20 Ling Gold Stone 1 pt each way
    I would be cautious of this selection as it has a wide draw to overcome.

  7. RECENT TIPS
    Daily
    S 1.00 – Eureu du Boulay on 4th and 5th run @ 12
    L11.50 – Daring Guest on 2nd run @ 25
    L 1.50 – Mountain Rescue on 5th run @ 20
    Festival
    L 1.50 – Mountain Rescue on 6th run @ 20
    L 2.20 – Teruntum Star on 4th and 5th run @ 9
    GL

  8. Lambourn Trainers
    Test only
    3.20 Lingfield Hollander BOG 5/1
    3.30 Southwell Lantiern BOG 15/2

    This is only my reading of the trainers quotes will see how it goes 2 winners from five so far,cannot guarantee to put them up every day but will record them to see if a profit can be made.

    Colin

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