Members Daily Post: 03/12/18 (testx2/complete)

test x2, Section 1 (complete) , test zone

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack

2.Any Tips/Notes (Daily Tips/Festival Tips/other thoughts)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack

Musselburgh

1.45 – Thepensionfund   (HcH) (added info: hncp debut) 14 G3 4/1 

2.15 –

Nendrum   micro TJC) 14 H3 4/1 UP/fell last when cruising to victory 

Urban Kode   (HcH, micro class) 14 ES+ H3 G1 9/2 S3A# UP

2.45 – John Williams   (micro TJC) 14 G3 9/4 WON 9/4>7/4 

 

Plumpton

1.30 – Wishicould   (all Hc;s) w2 13/2  UP

2.30 – Cabragh   (all Hc’s) H3 G1 3/1 UP

3.00 –

Seaweed   (HcH, micro’s distance, age and runs) 11/2 2nd

Cassivellaunus   (HcH) (added info: trainer change) 11/2 UP

Brother Bennett   (all Hcps) H3 G1 10/1 S1 S2 UP

 

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KEY

H1/H3= HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)

G1/G3 = Geegeez GoldSpeed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated

I1/I3 =  Inform Racing Speed Ratings – Top Rated or Top 3

14,30 = Geegeez Goldtrainer form’ indicators14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr3010+ runs last 30 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr

S1-S6 : S = ‘Strategy’ and refers to the ‘advised strategies’ in the link below. S1 = ‘Strategy 1’. Added on morning of racing along with the price. w1won last start.   w2won two starts ago (tracking as of 15th Feb 2018)

NEW! Welcome Video 2018/19>>>Watch HERE>>>

The Strategies: Where should you start? Some ideas HERE>>> 

‘Flat Strategies/results‘: Flat 2017 Read HERE>>>(updated to end Sept 2018)

‘Jumps Strategies/results’: Jumps 2017/18 Read HERE>>>(updated to end Sept 2018)

Research Articles: (TTP reports/Test Zone/Monthly Articles/Big Meetings Notes) READ HERE>>>

VIDEOS: Members Repository: HERE>>> . All Public (non members only) Videos HERE>>>

IMPORTANT: More Welcome Info  HERE>>> (please read) (inc must watch videos :)) 

Contact: email:  – info@racingtoprofit.co.uk  … or failing that… racingtoprofit@gmail.com 

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2.Any Tips/Notes (Daily Tips/Festival Tips/other thoughts)

Daily Tips(2017 Sept-Dec: 31/176, +110.75) (2018: 28/321,100p, -21.2) (1 point win /1 pt EW bets) Big Race/Festival Tips (2018: +150)

Daily Tips

NONE.

 

TEST Best of the Stats Quals? (17/60,31p, +15.1 , all 1 point win, 7/1< gen) 

2.30 Plump – Cheque En Blanc – 7/2 (gen) UP, poor.

2.45 Muss- Henrys Joy – 7/2 (gen) 2nd, annoying, awful jump at the last cost him, scrappy at a few, but he’s inexperienced so that was danger, he pinged plenty but was guessy at a few also, cost him the race, but you have to jump.

 

Cheque En Blanc – i think this race is between the top two in the market – maybe Tizzard’s will be thereabouts also but he has it to prove on soft and they remove the headgear, which may not suit. I’d be surprised if something else takes this but we shall see. There’s every chance i’ve picked the wrong one – it was between the selection and Cabragh but I thought their prices were the wrong way round and that this one could be 5/2 or so. I’ve gone with the unexposed one who is still open to improvement. He won well at the track LTO over a bit further but having watched the race back I liked how he travelled and jumped. Given he stays further I wonder if Moore may be more aggressive on him now and race him closer to the front. In any case he had the speed to be bang there as they turned for home, having been given a patient ride up until that point. He beat the right horse there in Bermeo given he arrived in the form of his life. Soft ground won’t be a hindrance and will bring his stamina into play and I didn’t think he’d be far away. Cabrah- he may be worth a saver on his second start for the yard – he can be a bit lazy and need niggling along at times but that was a decent run on seasonal reappearance, staying on well enough after the last. He has the form to take this and his handicapped to do so, but I have just sided with the LTO winner who’s potentially still climbing the ratings. We shall see if I’ve picked the right one, but i’d be more annoyed if i’d gone with Cabrah and the Moore horse won, given his profile/recent winning form, then the other was around.

Henry’s Joy – he’s ‘the’ interesting horse in this given how thoroughly unexposed he is as a chaser and I wanted to take on the others with his younger legs. He had some ok pointing form and they didn’t keep him over hurdles for long which I always like to see with a chaser in the making. He ran ok to a point at Ayr. It was his first run of the season, he wasn’t exactly strong in the market, he jumped ok if not slightly to his right at times, and it was in deep heavy ground. He tired as they turned for home but it was a run of promise for me. He’s in the ‘could be anything’ category and I didn’t want to go with the more exposed ones at the prices. John Williams is prob the right fav but no value at 2/1 to my eyes- he will be up there, generally jumps well, the yard are in superb form and he’s a CD winner. There’s a chance the selection is a stronger stayer than him at this trip and he may not get his own way with Civil Unrest. Hopefully Hughes can track the pair and pounce over the last two. He’s got CP back on here to help him concentrate also.

That’s the lot for today. Best of luck with any bets.

 

3.Micro System Test Zone

A Honeyball Mares (5/1<)

2.00 P – Audora  14/1 DNQ

Paddy Brennan (14/1< guide)

2.30 p – Invicta Lake 14/1 UP

D McCain (14/1< guide)

2.45 Muss – Henrys Joy 7/2 2nd

Jumps Fact Sheet 2018/19 

Jockeys/chasers

2.30 P – Sartorial Elegance 4/1 3rd

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Handicap Chase System starting points (10/1< best)

2.30 P – Cheque En Blanc 10/3 UP

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

There will be a results update also at some point today. Firstly for the ‘where to start’ strategy doc and then the test zone micros. Late in the week I’ll do a full update for all strategies in the main link in key.

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

15 Responses

  1. RT +2.75 many placed but not enough converting to wins, hence the downward drift…..
    645 Wo Happy Escape 8/1

  2. nothing worth a proper bet today.
    a couple that could have a chance if rediscovering anything near their best form Plumpton 2-30 Umberto D’olivate 12-1, 3-00 Kastani Beach 14-1, just a couple of small ew’s for interest.
    result update sometime today.

      1. w/e 2/12 figs

        Daily runners = 31
        Winners = 3 @ bog 10/3, 14, 7/2, @ sp 6/4, 14, 2
        p/l @ bog – 7.2
        p/l @ sp – 10.5
        There were 3 / 5 plcs @ bog 25, 14, 25 @ sp 20, 12, 10, 16, 11

        Festival runners = 10
        Winners = 3 @ bog 9/4, 3, 4, @ sp 9/4, 13/8, 4
        p/l @ bog + 2.25
        p/l @ sp + 0.875
        There were 2 / 2 plcs @ bog 25, 12, @ sp 9?( would have got 10+ near the off)

        3m+ runners = 6
        Winners = @ bog , @ sp
        p/l @ bog – 6
        p/l @ sp – 6
        there were 1 / 0 plcs @ bog 10, @ sp

        PLACES @ 10’s+ DO NOT INCLUDE WINS

  3. Morning,

    Well after the weekend I am a little apprehensive at backing today, weather and month have turned and I have ventured out of hibernation, so, here goes.
    15:00 Plumpton
    HIGHWAY STAR 5/1 gen 1/2 pt win
    This is a really horrible race for a Monday and don`t be surprised if either of these finish out the back of the tv, he is in a lower class affair after last time, but, as i said this is really low class dross.
    BROTHER BENNETT 10/1 1/2 pt win
    The favourite is giving him weight here from last time they met, jockey has a decent strike rate for this trainer and it`s also an S2 in Josh`s section 1 details, at 10/1 represents value, which is what we all want!
    As always hope all jockeys and horses come back safe and sound and good luck with whatever you back today.

    1. that should be ok! 🙂 No problem. Post again in Weds post which will be up from 5.30pm or Tuesday, my memory for ‘through the cards’ can evade me at times!
      Josh

  4. Just to say (re the discussion in yesterday’s Members post about Betfair’s offer) that I have tried twice today to put bets on with Betfair Sportsbook, both after 10am and both below the £500 payout threshold, & have failed miserably both times, having received the reply “Maximum bet £0.00” !!

    1. It may be worth dropping them a message and seeing if they reinstate – that’s the impression they have and their tech may just not have caught up as such. Or it’s the case of if you were restricted all restrictions remain, but it would be worth the effort following up to see if they may lift! Worth a go anyway.

  5. My account is swallowing money like a slot machine so I definitely think you should email I’m betting on a day that has some of the worst racing ever just to see what happens when I back a winner ill wait till brother Benneth wins

  6. all recent tips 3/10/17 to 2/12/18 (subsequent runs)

    Daily Tips (members/section 2)

    438 x 1st run, 50 x win @ 11.4 % sr, bog + 72.30, roi + 16.5 % / sp – 52.75, roi – 12 %
    395 x 2nd run, 45 x win @ 11.4 % sr, bog + 17.35, roi + 4.4 % / sp – 66.75, roi, – 16.9%
    254 x 3rd run, 29 x win @ 11.4 % sr, bog + 98.35, roi + 38.7 % / sp + 51.43, roi, + 20.3 %
    160 x 4th run, 25 x win @ 15.6 % sr, bog + 85.50, roi + 53.4 % / sp + 11.33, roi + 7.1 %
    72 x 5th run, 14 x win @ 19.4 % sr, bog + 25.0, roi + 34.7 % / sp + 6.0, roi + 8.3 %
    50 x 6th run, 8 x win @ 16 % sr, bog + 33.50, roi + 67 % / sp + 18.85, roi + 37.7 %
    33 x 7th run, 3 x win @ 9.1% sr, bog + 18, roi + 54.4 % / sp + 13.5, roi + 40.9 %
    24 x 8th run, 5 x win @ 20.8 % sr, bog + 46, roi + 191.7 %/ sp + 35.75, roi + 149.0 %
    14 x 9th run, 0 x win, – 14
    8 x 10th run, 0 x win – 8

    Festival Tips (members/section 2)

    200 x 1st run, 17 x win @ 8.5 % sr, bog +116.50, roi + 58.3 % / sp + 44.50, roi + 22.3 %
    131 x 2nd run, 21 x win @ 16. % sr, bog – 13.65, roi – 10.4 % / sp – 28.95, roi – 22.1 %
    69 x 3rd run, 4 x win @ 5.8 % sr, bog – 45.25, roi – 65.6 % / sp – 45.75, roi – 66.3 %
    38 x 4th run, 6 win @ 15.8 % sr, bog + 14.80, roi + 39.0 % / sp + 9.13, roi + 24.0 %
    24 x 5th run, 1 x win @ 4.2 % sr, bog – 9.00, roi – 38.0 % / sp – 9.00, roi – 38.0 %
    12 x 6th run, 4 x win @ 33.3 % sr, bog + 21.50, roi + 179.2 % / sp + 13.00, roi + 108.3 %
    3 x 7th run, 0 x win = – 3
    1 x 8th run, 0 x win = – 1

    3m+ (chase tips/free posts)

    156 x 1st run, 14 x win @ 9 % sr, bog + 45.85, roi + 29.4 % / sp – 3.4, roi – 2.2 %
    91 x 2nd run, 22 x win @ 24.2 % sr, bog + 98.25, roi + 108.0 % / sp + 75.25, roi + 82.7 %
    52 x 3rd run, 4 x win @ 8.0 % sr, bog – 4, roi – 7.7 % / sp – 14.25, roi – 27.4 %
    37 x 4th run, 4 x win @ 10.8 % sr, bog – 9.50, roi – 25.7 % / sp -14.00, roi – 37.8 %
    27 x 5th run, 3 x win @ 11.1 % sr, bog – 1.00, roi – 3.7 % / sp – 7.8, roi – 28.9 %
    15 x 6th run, 2 x win @ 13.3 % sr, bog + 16.00, roi + 106.7 % / sp + 10.50, roi + 70.0 %
    4 x 7th run, 0 x win. – 4
    2 x 8th run, 0 x win, – 2

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