Members Daily Post: 01/12/18 (complete)

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack

2.Any Tips/Notes (Daily Tips/Festival Tips/other thoughts)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc

 

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1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack

Bangor 

12.55 –

Mr Monochrome   (micro going and distance) 4/1  UP

Vengeur De Guye (HcCh) 14 H3 I3  6/1 WON 6/1>4/1 

1.30 –

Flemingport  (micro Runs) 14 I3 9/2 2nd

Spririt of Hale   (HcCh) w2 14/1 S2 UP

3.10 – Chicago Lady  (HcH, Micro Dist/going) H3 G3 I3 4/1 S4

 

Doncaster 

1.10 –

Cosmeapolitan  (all Hc’s) H3 I3 9/4 

Harefield (all Hc’s) 14,30 9/1 

Scirrocan Roll  (micro class/runs) 14 H1 G3 I3 5/2 S4 

2.15 –

Potterman   (micros age and runs) H1 7/2 

Sunnytahliantiateigh  (all Hc,s, micro clasas and runs) 14 9/4 

 

Newbury 

1.20 –

Adrien de pont  (best if over 7yo) 14,30 H3 10/3 UP

Breelan D’As   (HcCh) 14,30 I3 8/1 2nd 

Kapcorse  (HcCh,) 14,30 9/1  WON 9/1>12/1 

Valhalla  (all Hc’s) 14,30 14/1 S2 UP

1.50 –

Padleyourowncanoe   (all Hc.s) 14,30 11/1 S2 

Whos my jockey (micro age) 14,30 I3 G1 16/1 S1 S2A S5 

2.25 Gumball (micro distance) w2 14,30 I1 20/1 S2A S5 

3.00

Black Corton (handicap chase) 14,30  H3 I1 12/1 S2 S5 

Elegant Escape (all handicaps)  w1 14,30  H1 I1 11/2 

Sizing Tennessee (all handicaps) w1 14,30 18/1 S2A 

West approach (all handicaps) 14,30 33/1 

 

Newcastle

12.25 Halcyon days (handicap chase) w1 14 H1 I3 5/1 

Late Addition… 09.22…

3.20 Newc – 

Baywing (all hncps) w2 H1 I1 G3 16/1 S1 S2A S4 

Sharp Response (m dist) w2 8/1 

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KEY

H1/H3= HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)

G1/G3 = Geegeez GoldSpeed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated

I1/I3 =  Inform Racing Speed Ratings – Top Rated or Top 3

14,30 = Geegeez Goldtrainer form’ indicators14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr3010+ runs last 30 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr

S1-S6 : S = ‘Strategy’ and refers to the ‘advised strategies’ in the link below. S1 = ‘Strategy 1’. Added on morning of racing along with the price. w1won last start.   w2won two starts ago (tracking as of 15th Feb 2018)

NEW! Welcome Video 2018/19>>>Watch HERE>>>

The Strategies: Where should you start? Some ideas HERE>>> 

‘Flat Strategies/results‘: Flat 2017 Read HERE>>>(updated to end Sept 2018)

‘Jumps Strategies/results’: Jumps 2017/18 Read HERE>>>(updated to end Sept 2018)

Research Articles: (TTP reports/Test Zone/Monthly Articles/Big Meetings Notes) READ HERE>>>

VIDEOS: Members Repository: HERE>>> . All Public (non members only) Videos HERE>>>

IMPORTANT: More Welcome Info  HERE>>> (please read) (inc must watch videos :)) 

Contact: email:  – info@racingtoprofit.co.uk  … or failing that… racingtoprofit@gmail.com 

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2.Any Tips/Notes (Daily Tips/Festival Tips/other thoughts)

Daily Tips(2017 Sept-Dec: 31/176, +110.75) (2018: 28/321,100p, -21.2) (1 point win /1 pt EW bets) Big Race/Festival Tips (2018: +150)

Big Race/Festival Tips 

Hennessy Tips in free post are Elegant Escape 5/1 and Beware The Bear 16/1 , 1 point win each. 

NONE today… others below…

 

Daily Tips

1.20 Newb – Valhalla– 1 point win – 12/1 (gen) UP, poor 

1.50 Newb – Paddleyourowncanoe – 1 point win – 11/1 (gen) UP, not much better 

 

TEST Best of the Stats Quals? (16/56,29p, +15.6 , all 1 point win, 7/1< gen) 

1.20 Newb- Kayf Adventure – 5/1 (gen) UP

1.35 Newc – Polydora – 7/2 (gen) WON 7/2>15/8 

 

That’s all for ‘tips’, 10.19, write ups…

A busy morning and time is marching on so i’ll try and be brief…

Valhalla – I thought this is a more suitable trip, or in any case he’s well worth another go at it and he looks to prefer softer. He also races prominently and has a light weight on his back compared to some which may be no bad thing in conditions. He could even lead, or in any case track the George horse, and I thought he was overpriced. This is only his 7th handicap chase start and 2m6f around here in soft may be ideal for him.

Paddleyourowncanoe – well I may be up S creek without a paddle depending on how this afternoon goes- no pressure Mr Tizzard. This one was overpriced again for me. He’s fit, in form, his recent races have been working out well, and his runs over 19f suggest that this trip could bring out more, or that he certainly wants 2m 4f now. He has been outpaced at times the last twice. He has form in soft but unlike many in here, if this is heavy then we are into guessing territory with most, and not many have encountered such testing ground yet. He is only 4 but has had plenty of racing and knows what he’s doing, and he’s tough. I didn’t think he’d be that far away given the market principals have a few questions, esp in this ground. Something may be thrown in mind, time will tell.

Kayf Adventure… well this ‘test’ ‘best of’ stats quals is a look at those on here that are nearer the top of the market, well 7s or under, and I’ve never focussed on trying to find value at this end, having been much more comfortable in the 8/1+ range.. which may just be an artificial cut off. If these two were 8s+, they’d have been ‘daily tips’ and provided this test goes ok and keeps ticking along, they’ll all get rolled up into one. I focussed on the stats quals for the daily tips today above, those at 8s+, and the same work goes into all of these. Anyway… this one has a decent level of chase form already, is still unexposed, has course form, has won fresh, Hobbs is going well and Johnson may have him close enough to the pace. He relishes testing ground. I keep forgetting toto treat the form of any Hobbs horse earlier in the year with some caution given that most of his were sick at some point from Nov-April it seems, and some after that. This one also hits the Hobbs micro stats from the report I pulled together.. at the last 5 meetings he’s 6/12,9p with handicappers aged 7 or younger, 7/1 or shorter SP. Hopefully if Valhalla fluffs his lines, this one picks up the pieces and vice versa.

Polydora… I thought fitness , a recent chase run, a decent level of form, the trainer form and his prominent style (and good jumping at Aintree) mean this one could still be overpriced. I suspect Johns will be aggressive on him and he did run well when last seen, and may have needed it. In any case that was a decent enough race I think for the grade. He’s the benchmark in this and may enjoy softer ground also. Many of the others have fitness to prove and are having their first run over fences while the others look more exposed. Venetia’s would be annoying given he’s a nice price and hits the ‘november’ angle below, and I talked myself out of Aso yesterday having had a look at him for an age. Got him wrong in spectacular fashion. However, in Novice handicap chases she is only 1/29 with those having their first chase start, in the last 3 years anyway. That stat did put me off a tad but he has some of the better handicap hurdle form on offer when trained by Mullins. He could have a decent future over fences and will no doubt bolt up now! They will all have to go past the selection to win this I think/hope.

 

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3.Micro System Test Zone

D McCain (14/1< guide) 

2.50 Donc – Golden Investment 6/1 

R Hobson (33/1< guide) 

1.00 Newc – Lord Du Mesnil 20/1 

2.40 Newc – Extra Bald 50/1 

V Williams/’November’ (16/1< guide)*

*some caution, but as with last year will extent into December, as dry weather ‘may have’ put her a couple of weeks behind

1.35 Newc – Didero Vallis 17/2 

3.20 Newc – Otago Trail 9/1 

Paddy Brennan (14/1< guide) 

12.25 Newc – Copper West 3/1 

Tom Lacey 

1.35 Newc – Polydora 7/2 

Sat Trainer/Jockey Combo 

1.20 Newb – The Bay Birch (14/1< best) 20/1 

Kayf Adventure (apols, hrb account quals all blurring into one)

Autumn Trainer

1.10 Donc – Shiroccan Roll (14/1<) 5/2 

1.45 Donc – Boreham Bill (14/1<) 4/1 

A Honeyball Mares 

12.55 Bang – Drops of Jupitor (5/1<) 9/1 

3.10 Bang – Solstice Twilight (10/1<) 9/2 

 

Jumps Fact Sheet 2018/19 

Trainers to Follow 

1.10 Donc – Shiroccan Roll (14/1<, 6/1< best) 5/2 

1.35 Newc – Polydora 7/2 

3.00 Newb – Thomas Patrick 4/1 

LTO Winning Trainers

1.50 Newb – Potters Story 16/1 

Jockeys/Chasers

120 Newb – Adrien Du Pont 10/3 

3.00 Newb – Elegant Escape 11/2 

1.20 Newb – The Bay Birch (16/1<) 20/1 

3.35 Newb – Rock On Rocky 14/1 

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

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About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

30 Comments

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  • Instant expert system
    0/3 1 place -3.6 pts
    3.20 Newc Otago Trail 1pt ew.

    chubnut 30/11/18 5:05 PM Reply


  • B 12.55 Mr Monochrome ( micro going and dist)
    Vengeur Guye (HcCh)
    more to come
    My email and Josh’s aren’t working at the moment.
    watch this space. I’m not sure why email is not working but all quals will follow.

    Titus 30/11/18 6:23 PM Reply


    • I notice you had a day off on the tipping front Titus. Do you still intend to post going forwards?

      Francis 30/11/18 7:10 PM Reply


    • emmmmmmmm ……………… this is just adding fuel to my conspiracy thinking that Titus & Josh are one and the same person .?????????????????? 🙂 have they ever been seen in the same room together ? 🙂

      gl/gb
      p.s. i am just seeing what bets i can “brand ” you up this morning mr c.leafe 🙂
      at the moment all look shorties !!
      gl/gb 🙂

      GEORGE B 01/12/18 9:22 AM Reply


      • Hi Francis, Didn’t have time to look yesterday as was going to eye clinic and any today will be late but I’ll post whether any or not in an hour or so.

        George, I’m passing on the TTS quals to Josh over the weekend and cos of drops in my eyes yesterday I couldn’t focus properly and was cocking up trying to type and send emails etc
        Mike

        Titus 01/12/18 9:45 AM Reply


        • OK Titus … oh ok ……….you have convinced me you are not the same person as Josh then 🙂 ………….. lol
          Really fab-u-lous work you do on here for us btw … really appreciated 🙂
          gl/gb

          GEORGE B 01/12/18 9:52 AM Reply


      • Cheers George cannot wait certainly hope that whatever you do find you have a winning day.
        All the best
        Colin

        cleafe 01/12/18 12:15 PM Reply


  • COLINS BETS
    November
    SP + 1/2 point BOG + 13
    ELITE BETS
    SP – 8.47 BOG -3.92
    November proved a taxing month,thankfully the negatives proved correct at Southwell with all four losing,so read them correct,which Colins bet proved profitable.

    cleafe 30/11/18 6:53 PM Reply


  • Martin
    Your advice with K Burke AW has come good after a couple of weeks or so knocking at the door. Gov choice twice 2nd within 7 days. 2/14 last 14 days before today.
    Angel Palanas sp 14/1
    Mardle sp 40/1…bet at 25s
    Fflur sp 12/1… bet at 33s
    Small stakes but thanks for the info anyway.

    Mike

    mickeydee 30/11/18 7:25 PM Reply


    • Yes you have to stick with these micros until they go completely cold. If you give up on them too early you miss the payouts when they come.

      martin colwell 30/11/18 9:44 PM Reply


  • RT +3.75
    715 Wo Areen Heart 9/2

    kevo19 01/12/18 1:02 AM Reply


  • today’s selections.
    Newcastle 3-20. Lake View Lad 10-1 sky 4 places
    Newbury 1-20. Valhalla 9-1 sky 4 places
    Newbury 1-50. Barters Hill 9-1
    all 1/2 pt ew

    martin whittle 01/12/18 6:20 AM Reply


    • a winner at last, staked 3 pts, returns 7 pts, up 4 pts

      martin whittle 01/12/18 4:12 PM Reply


  • Morning,

    I too was screaming at the tv yesterday after Sean Bowen did what he did yesterday…He is normally really good at judging pace etc, maybe it`s the jumpers he excels at rather than the hurdlers.
    Anyway I`m hoping he has an off day today (sorry Josh, but can`t see anything but my two in this).
    15:00 Newbury
    THOMAS PATRICK 4/1 2pt win
    I have watched over and again his win here earlier in the year and think so long as Dickie gets him into a rhythm here, he will bolt up, my only concern is that he may not have enough speed to keep up with my other selection, but, he is a solid favourite and with the champ on board you will get a run for your money!
    SIZING TENESSEE 20/1 365 1pt e/w
    Now, this horse is a bit of an enigma, he was a bit of a monkey last season, winning and coming close on numerous occasions, but, he was beaten by some really good horses. I think Tom Scu is the making of him this season and he really outbattled Capeland on his latest start, if he is the pacemaker for Elegant then i will doff my cap, but, he is built for a slog and this race is renowned for these out and out battlers!! 20/1 is a daft price also…

    As always, hope all horses and jockeys come back safe and sound and good luck with whatever you back today!

    Stewart 01/12/18 7:50 AM Reply


    • Best of luck Stewart, yep I think that was a winner that escaped us yesterday, finishing effort suggests he was the better handicapped of the two, but maybe not as tough. He was only 1L behind as they turned for home, as they approached the last he had 2/3 to make up on a horse that wasn’t stopping. Suspect if he could ride again he would be far more aggressive after the 3rd last – he could have been 1-2L approach the last and would have kept going- still to see him in a battle and go past a horse mind, maybe SB mindful of that, who knows. I always think they should be ridden as if you’re confident they will stay- i’d rather him have gone ahead after the last and be caught late if emptying than what transpires. But a game of fine margins. My analysis on winner a tad shoddy and too quick to dismiss/assume something would be better treated. That Chelt run was very good and I knew he’d get an easy enough lead. Oh well.

      Josh 01/12/18 12:33 PM Reply


      • Top shout pal. Superb performance. Regrettably nowhere near him. Doh. And another section 1 to beat me in a big race. Still and S2A W1 who needed it.

        Josh 01/12/18 3:24 PM Reply


        • Thank you Josh, we got the one-two, something I think everyone should note is that the Tizzard bandwagon in big races is about to kick start again.
          I did mention about ULTRAGOLD at 25/1 for next weeks Becher and also SHANAHANS TURN also available at 16/1 for the Grand Sefton, these are far too big for horses that have been here and know the course inside out.
          If The Dutchman lines up also will be interesting!!? still 20`s available on him.

          Stewart 01/12/18 3:35 PM Reply


          • Well done Stewart, excellent thinking.
            Hugh

            alpha2 01/12/18 3:46 PM Reply


  • I started posting selections on 13th November and these are my stats for November.
    WIN 4/11 36%
    W&P 7/11 63%
    + 6.05pts to BFSP (return to prices posted 10.2pts)
    ROI 33%

    A couple of people asked about my 2yo returns yesterday. I only kept a running total at the bottom of my notes rather than a spreadsheet and events from June on distracted me to such an extent that I can only report as follows. The peak appears to have been 36pts just before Royal Ascot and as far as I can see this then dwindled away to around 12pts by mid September when I packed up.

    This has been the pattern for the last few years. Great early profits then a slow downward drift. Next year I shall attempt to post from The Brocklesby until the end of Royal Ascot at least or maybe the end of Glorious Goodwood. With my method depending for the most part on my being at the races it is pretty clear that as races per day ramp up in mid summer I cannot hope to maintain the early season accuracy.

    Let’s hope that the November results for my new NH thread are not just beginners luck.
    Hugh

    alpha2 01/12/18 7:51 AM Reply


  • Today’s selections
    Bangor 12.20 1pt e/w Mr McGo 16/1
    Newbury 12.45 1pt win Kilbricken Storm 5/2
    1.45 Donc 1pt e/w Boreham Bill 5/1
    2.15 Donc 1pt e/w Tonto’s Spirit 12/1
    Hugh

    alpha2 01/12/18 8:18 AM Reply


    • Missed one
      Newcastle 3.20 1pt e/w Testify
      Hugh

      alpha2 01/12/18 8:27 AM Reply


  • I have recorded my bets properly for the first time in nocember … getting ready for january start and total bet logging procedures 🙂

    bets = 317 wins = 103 win% = 32.49 placed horses = 165
    placed % = 52.05 %
    p/l s.p. = £ 206.24
    P/L BETFAIR = £ 355.3445
    ALL TO 1 POINT
    (£ 1.00 = 1 point bet)

    gl/gb 🙂

    GEORGE B 01/12/18 9:36 AM Reply


  • COLINS BETS

    3.20 Newcastle Bishops Road BOG 15/2

    ELITE BETS

    1.50 Newbury Barters Hill BOG 9/1

    cleafe 01/12/18 10:09 AM Reply


  • Coologue Bangor 13:30 1pt e/w
    Paddleyourowncanoe Newbury 13:50 1pt e/w
    Black Corton Newbury 15:00 1pt e/w
    Otago Trail Newcastle 15:20 1pt e/w

    Nick Mazur 01/12/18 10:20 AM Reply


    • Nick, what kind of strike rate/ROI are you running at with these?
      A ballpark figure will suffice, I’m not going to grill you on specifics! 😉

      traf69 01/12/18 10:51 AM Reply


  • Not much today on the micro’s I have.

    Philip Hobbs – Richard Johnson handicappers class 1-3, 1 or 2 runs last 90 days:

    2.25 Newbury, Gumball, 1 point each way at 20/1.

    Emma Lavelle handicappers: 1.20 Newbury, Full Irish, 1/2 point each way at 20/1; 1.45 Doncaster, Boreham Hill, 1 point each way at 7/1; 1.10 Doncaster, Shirocan Roll, 2 points win 5/2 BOG.

    Good luck

    martin colwell 01/12/18 11:14 AM Reply


    • Also Hobbs angle – 1.50 Newbury, Who’s My Jockey, 1/2 point each way at 18/1.

      martin colwell 01/12/18 11:23 AM Reply


  • RECENT TIPS
    Daily
    D 2.15 – Quest for Life on 2nd run @ 20
    Nb1.20 – Air Horse One on 3rd and 6th run @ 14
    ………….Sussex Ranger on 1st run @ 25
    Nc1.35 – Polydora on 3rd run @ 7/2
    F12.50 – Presenting Mahler on 3rd run @ 14
    Festival
    B12.20 – Mulcahys Hill on 2nd run @ 12
    D 1.10 – Mister Universum on 5th run @ 6
    Nb3.00 – Ms Parfois on 2nd run @ 11/2
    Nc3.20 – Testify on 2nd run @ 14
    W 7.15 – Sea Fox on 2nd run @ 18
    W 7.45 – Origina[ Choice on 3rd run @ 9/4
    3m+
    Nb3.35 – Top Gamble on 1st run @ 11/2
    F 1.25 – Blast of Koeman on 2nd run @ 6
    GL
    Miles behind today, sorry.

    Titus 01/12/18 11:42 AM Reply


  • Lambourn Trainers update
    30 November selected two and one won SP 5/4 BOG 6/4

    1 December selected two and one won SP 9/2 BOG 9/2
    1.50 Newbury Champ 9/2
    2.15 Doncaster Simply The Betts
    Put them up for anyone to see the reason why i selected them for do not know when Lambourn Trainers change the board.
    This is a total learning curve but a decent start,even though i have not backed them!!!
    Colin.

    cleafe 01/12/18 2:35 PM Reply


  • I’m a lucky lucky lucky if not slightly stupid boy!!! After Thursdays lucky mistake of putting the price in the stake box and it duly obliging at 14/1, I tried to place a small e/w multi double today which kept returning an error due to the sites technical problems. I tried 6 times to place the bet, failing every time. Unbeknown to me all the bets were placed and ended up with 2 placed in each race for a very nice return!!

    chris 01/12/18 4:02 PM Reply


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