Members Daily Post: 30/11/18 (complete)

Daily Tip x1, Big Race tips x2, Section 1 (complete), test zone, Newbury content

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack

2.Any Tips/Notes (Daily Tips/Festival Tips/other thoughts)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack

Doncaster

1.10 –

Dory (all hcnps) 14 H3 I1 7/2 

Scottshill (micro class) 14 8/1 

1.40 – Buster Thomas (m class/runs) H3 I3 G1 2/1 S4  won 4/7 (assume R4) 

2.50 – Travertine (nov hncps) 14 I1 G3 8/1 S1+S5 (IF 11.00+ BFSP) 

 

Newbury

2.25 –

Touch Kick (hncp chase + m dist) w1 14,30 I3 9/2  2nd 

Ballybolley (m class) 14/1 S2 UP

3.35 –

Rock Point (all hncps) 14,30 12/1 S2 2nd 6/1 

Juge Et Parti (m class) G3 9/2 UP

 

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KEY

H1/H3= HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)

G1/G3 = Geegeez GoldSpeed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated

I1/I3 =  Inform Racing Speed Ratings – Top Rated or Top 3

14,30 = Geegeez Goldtrainer form’ indicators14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr3010+ runs last 30 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr

S1-S6 : S = ‘Strategy’ and refers to the ‘advised strategies’ in the link below. S1 = ‘Strategy 1’. Added on morning of racing along with the price. w1won last start.   w2won two starts ago (tracking as of 15th Feb 2018)

NEW! Welcome Video 2018/19>>>Watch HERE>>>

The Strategies: Where should you start? Some ideas HERE>>> 

‘Flat Strategies/results‘: Flat 2017 Read HERE>>>(updated to end Sept 2018)

‘Jumps Strategies/results’: Jumps 2017/18 Read HERE>>>(updated to end Sept 2018)

Research Articles: (TTP reports/Test Zone/Monthly Articles/Big Meetings Notes) READ HERE>>>

VIDEOS: Members Repository: HERE>>> . All Public (non members only) Videos HERE>>>

IMPORTANT: More Welcome Info  HERE>>> (please read) (inc must watch videos :)) 

Contact: email:  – info@racingtoprofit.co.uk  … or failing that… racingtoprofit@gmail.com 

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2.Any Tips/Notes (Daily Tips/Festival Tips/other thoughts)

Daily Tips(2017 Sept-Dec: 31/176, +110.75) (2018: 28/319,100p, -19.2) (1 point win /1 pt EW bets) Big Race/Festival Tips (2018: +150)

 

Big Race/Festival Tips

3.35 Newbury 

Rock Point – 1 point win – 12/1 (gen) 2nd 6/1, agonising.

Bobo Mac – 1 point win – 15/2 (gen) UP, poor

can’t complain too much with that, I wish Sean had got after him a lot sooner but I say that with how he finished. He was still on him between 3 and the 2 out while Harry B was busy, as he clearly just stays. But maybe he’s a bit of a monkey also, i’m not sure. Credit to the winner, I thought something would be better treated but I didn’t fully appreciate the form of that Chelt run which makes that argument a bit stupid as there was a chance he could still be well handicapped, and in the form of his life. I knew he’d lead. Always something to improve on, shame mine could never get upsides earlier. That’s the game. 

 

Daily Tips

2.50 Donc – Travertine – 1 point win – 9/1 (gen)

that’s all, tip posted 09.16, write up below…

 

Write ups…

3.35 – I think this race is between the fav, Juge Et Parti and the two selections, who happen to be the biggest prices/may be the overpriced ones.

Rock Point- he’s the most interesting in this race for me given the big step up in trip. He’s yet to win a race so you want a price but he’s run a few times in a style which suggests he’s well worth a go over the 3m and of course the hope is that he relishes it and he shows himself to be well handicapped. 16f on Good was far too short LTO and he was visibly outpaced and it’s highly likely he needed the run also. Sean is a strange booking for the yard but not in the sense he rode this one LTO. Maybe he will start using him more as the winter hots up, as he seems to be down the pecking order at Nicholls – well Cobden is no.1 and plenty of his owners seem to prefer Bryony, with him and STD picking up any others, as well as the odd conditional etc. His runs over 19f were generally dawdle>sprint which didn’t suit him. He hits the ‘winning profile’ below (well that’s 9/10 and doesn’t cover one winner), is a section 1 qual above, Tizzard’s are going well and he’s in the ‘could be anything’ category. He’s the only bigger priced one i’d want to be on. This will tell us more as to what his trip is but I think he may relish it and is related to the odd stayer.

Bobo Mac – arguably has some of if not the best handicapping form on show I think. It is a race packed with unexposed ones but this is only his 6th handicap hurdle start. He made a decent return to action LTO at the track, where connections reported he came back a bit sore on the ground, so this softer surface will suit. He was going to run at Haydock but they pulled him due to the faster surface. He should come on for that run and the CP return,which he’s 1/1 in. He is the yardstick in this I think as he stays, clearly handles the CD, is fit and has a decent level of form. He chased home a Sherwood horse LTO with a gap back to the rest, and he was then thumped in the handicap but didn’t lose by far at Market Rasen to a decent Newland horse, a massive gap back to the rest there. He’s solid here and I thought was 2/3 points too big, I wouldn’t have had him bigger than 9/2 on what he’s done and if he had NTD next to his name, he’d be that price.

Then we are onto the rest. I like Twisters…but I thought he was about the right price. I may have got that wrong and I wouldn’t put anyone off 1/2 a point at 9/2 I suppose. My niggle is that I want to see what he’s like in a battle. He has a lot of 2nds to his name over hurdles which you can read as being consistent – or you can pose the question of whether he likes to go through with it when he’s under the pump. I think he’s been mentally inexperienced and will be improving with age/runs and that last run was very good off top weight. The front two were miles clear. The winner was in form, dictated and was once a 130s animal. He’s 8lb well in I think technically here and is better than this mark. It may well be what happens after the last. Clearly I won’t fall off my seat if he wins, and wins well, but I could make a case for two at bigger prices etc, so that’s that.

The fav is interesting but has stamina to prove on this ground. He relished soft in France so that is probably a plus for him but he’s hard to weigh up. He didn’t beat anything when last seen. This hasn’t been the target and the racing manager says he gets the impression he’ll come on for it. Henderson has just been waiting for some soft and this race came up. The noises from connections wouldn’t give you confidence to steam in at this price, and he isn’t overpriced. He may need it and I’m happy to take him on.

Now, as usual, I may not have mentioned the winner, but I didn’t want to be with anything else. De Name Evades me – his form is hard to weight up and i’m not sure it’s that good. Connections fear soft ground here thinking he’s better on good and I just think there will be better horses in this, and better handicapped ones. He clearly stays although this is a new test, and a step up. I could have him wrong but I like to take strong opinions and be left red faced, rather than sit on the fence if I can. Virginia Chick…well she makes seasonal reappearance, is up from C4 to C2, and is up 9lb for that last win. I don’t think running to a mark of 123 will be good enough to take this so she has to improve again. We await to see whether she can but you have to take fitness on trust. She is consistent and stays well and if a1 may surprise me. But I was happy to leave. A big bowl of egg at the ready to submerge myself in. 🙂 Nick will do the pouring. Aux Ptits Sons may be on a fact finding mission and i’d be surprised if he’s tuned up for this but he was formally very smart and is well enough handicapped. Skelton may have a future spring target in mind and is working back. Vive Le Roi has been superb for connections and he’ll give it a good go from the front but I think will find better treated rivals now. I was happy to leave the other four and if one wins I was never near them!

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Travertine- I tipped him LTO at Warwick where the tactics were strange as he was held up too far back although the eventual winner was just in front of him through it. He travelled and jumped well but then suffered big interference down the back where he had to step over a faller and lost his momentum. He wasn’t really in it after that. Had that not happened he may have been a running on 3rd or 4th, and would be 3 points shorter here. It’s of interest Jonjo comes to a track where he does well- 5/14,7p with handicap chasers in the last 5 years, a couple of those in Novice handicaps. This may be a weaker race than LTO but he does have to prove he can win from this mark over fences. It was his ceiling over hurdles but this is only his 3rd chase run and ge could be getting better with experience. There isn’t loads of pace on paper in this and he does have some speed. I hope they don’t anchor him again, which is criminal, but at 9s I’ll have another go in what looks an open enough race to me. Jonjo remains in decent form and he’s a chance in this, more of one than his price suggests to my eyes. Maybe the top two will be hard to beat but I was happy to take on at the odds.

That’s the lot for today.

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TEST Best of the Stats Quals? (15/54,28p, +13.1 , all 1 point win) 

NONE today.

 

3.Micro System Test Zone

R Hobson (33/1< guide)

12.10 N – Discko Des Plages 50/1 DNQ/UP

V Williams/November (16/1< guide)

2.25 N – Aso 10/1 WON 10/1>8/1 

Paddy Brennan (14/1< guide)

3.35 N – De Name Escapes Me 7/1 3rd

Irish Angles

12.15 L – Liars Dice (16/1< best, 25/1<)  25/1 UP

 

Jumps Fact Sheet 2018/19 

LTO Winning Trainers

2.25 N – Beggars Wish (8/1<) 8/1

12.45 N – The Last Day 14/1 UP

3.35 N – Virginia Chick 14/1 UP

Jockeys/Chasers

2.25 N – Beggars Wish (9/1< best) 8/1

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

Newbury 2 Day Winter Festival Stats: HERE>>>

Brief notes including pointers for Friday’s C2 3m handicap hurdle, The Gerry Fielden, The big one, and 4 trainer pointers of some interest

3.35 Newbury

using the stats in the report above: a ‘winning profile’ : aged 5-6 / 0-6 runs handicap hurdles / 0-5 runs in handicaps / 0-1 win in NH at this class or higher .. leaves 9/42,15p in the last decade. This leaves four…

Dragon Destruval / De Name Evades Me / Judge Et Parti / Rockpoint

A top 5 finish LTO is a positive, all bar Rockpoint.

Running within last 30 days a positive, all bar Dragon Destruval.

The winner that isn’t in those 9/10 stats was an outlier. If this profile holds then one of those four will be winning. Time will tell! I’ll have a deeper look through the race Friday morning and see if I wish to tip anything.

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

60 Responses

  1. Colin, Josh, I am trying to record the returns on the new thread accurately but the winner today (Thursday) stumps me.
    I took 7’s and when I posted 6’s was widely available.
    It went off 11/10 presumably in a reformed market.

    After a rule 4 of 45p in the pound my return on my 1pt e/w bet was 4.62 points.

    How should I record this?
    Hugh

    1. Hugh
      Put W6/1 R4 45p return 4.3 total profit 3.3

      ——- Stake Return Profit Total Profit
      W6/1 £1.00 R4 45p 4.3 +3.3 + 3.3

      Hope this helps
      Colin

      1. These were spaced out when typed and put up computer crunched them up,that is how i record my results

        Next race lost
        Total Profit
        L £1.00 + 2.3

    2. Hugh, I think you confused the issue slightly by saying your returns were 4.62pts. As James said, your returns should be 6.62pts, profit is 4.62pts. see below.

      Stake 1pt ew
      Total Stake 2pts
      Returns 6.62pts
      Profit 6.62pts – 2pts = 4.62pts

      There is a really good bet calculator at aceodds dot com which includes R4’s.

    3. Thanks Chaps, yes Ken I did confuse the issue as I always look at my returns as less the stake, but see what you mean.

      The point I was not sure about was the price that I should return for the record here. The 7’s I took, the 6’s that were generally available (both after R4) or SP?

      When I started I think I suggested I would report to BFSP but in this case it seems daft so to do. I’m trying to avoid the issue of inflating points by posting a price that was not available to others. (not that I’m likely to move any markets!)

      I suppose as it is a personal thread it makes sense to report the prices I took and returns I got after any rule 4s
      Hugh

  2. The Hobbs – Johnson team have Melchior King in the 12/10 Newbury. It is currently 125/1 on SkyBet. It seems like a horse that may improve for its third run. Worth a little go.

  3. 2 from the 3 selections brought a nice personal profit on a trixie. the loser, Jonagold was available at 5s, the minimum odds for the system. So I’m including it as an EW bet in the running total.
    0/3 1 place -3.6 pts
    More of the same tomorrow with one horse under 5s and another with 6 runners ( 8 runners needed).
    12.25 Don Mercian King
    2.50 Don Mon Palios.
    Not qualifying but I shall have an EW Double anyhow.

  4. Lambourn Trainers
    Think that there is an opening to these but will not be putting them up for waited in for Charlie Hills update and had to go out returned early to get his update and not messing about all day waiting around.
    Will record myself and see how they go.
    2.40 Bodes Well 7/1 out to 8/1 unplaced
    5.00 Livvy’s Dream 11/4 to 2/1 C Hills could have had larger price than 11/4 unplaced
    8.00 Cosmogyral 7/1 to 4/1 2nd
    Out the three, two well backed,so not far away.
    Colin.

    1. Think you’re right Colin, we can always check for ourselves on the Lambourn website as and when. After a few weeks we should have a better idea of how to interpret the various ways the trainers express themselves as not all will say what they mean! We have to learn how to read between the lines. Be interested to see your views after a few weeks.

      All the best

  5. Katgary Doncaster 13:40 1pt e/w 16/1
    Virginia Chick Newbury 15:35 1pt e/w 14/1

    I am out most of the weekend so any tips will be up at 10-11am at the earliest both days.

    1. I had most of my cash on 4+ places but for official purposes him getting done for 3rd there sums up my month. In fairness still end it +3.5pts up. (-7.8pt to BFSP on 1pt win bets)

      1. Cheers for another profitable month Nick, I got 4 places today and also 4 places last Friday night on Choral Music so think I may have scraped into double figures. Considering all the bad fortune more than happy with that return

  6. After all that fussing I amnot down as much as I thought after 68 tips and only 9 winners so far this NH season I am actually still 3pts up at Early price, (slight loss at SP though – 16pts).
    So after that and the fact my betting Tank has taken a hammering we move onto a great weekend of racing.
    Think I may have put the mockers on Josh`s tips now though.

    15:35 Newbury
    ROCKPOINT 11/1 gen 1pt win
    JUGE ET PARTI 6/1 betfred 1pt win

    There we go then, back off the wagon and rolling with the tips, my mojo will come back and I am up and ready for ULTRAGOLD 25/1 BLAKLION 10/1 and SHANAHANS TURN 16/1 bringing home the bacon/christmas winnings next week, hope you have all got on at those prices, cannot see them being that next Saturday.
    As always hope all horses and jockeys come back safe and sound and good luck today!

  7. RECENT TIPS
    Daily
    D 2.50 – Travertine on 1st run @ 9
    N 3.55 – Hit The Highway on 1st run @ 25
    S 2.05 – Picketts Charge on 3rd run @ 13/2
    ………..Kupa River on 3rd and 6th run @ 7
    S 2.40 – Break The Silence on 3rd run @ 9
    N 6.15 – Kenny The Captain on 5th run @ 20
    Festival
    N 6.15 – Tommy G on 5th run @ 25
    3m+
    N 3.35 – Clondaw Cian on 6th run @ 40
    GL

  8. COLINS BETS

    No bet Few potential bets but far to many negatives

    ELITE BETS
    Southwell
    11.20 Honey Gg BOG 3/1
    2.05 The Grove BOG 25/1
    2.05 Desert Dream BOG 16/1
    Doncaster
    1.40 Buster Thomas BOG 2/1

  9. Anyone else having issues with the tracker tool on GG’s since the repair work? I’m using chrome and the page layout has changed and the functionality of the track has gone. GG’s have asked me to try a different browser so I’m guessing firefox would be a good option

    1. Hi Chris, I assume you have ‘cleared chache’ in chrome of saved images/files? I always have to do that in Chrome after any GG upgrade.

      1. Yep, done the cache and logging out things, it works on Edge but the bookmarks irritate me too much, no icons and a weird set up for me 🙁

  10. Hi Hugh
    First of all not having ago at you,this is just my view.
    When i put my bets on here they are for the majority and are not personal,if personal why put them up.
    When i put a bet up they are for the majority and they should be able to achieve the price i claim,still strongly believe SP and BOG is the fairest way.
    Claiming stand alone bookmaker price again is a no no for me,few years ago wanted £100 on one of McCoy’s at the Cheltenham festival and WH stood alone at 5/2 and the rest were 9/4,the trader said that i could have £5 at 9/4 and the £95 at SP,what happened to the 5/2,so put my bet on elsewhere at 9/4 it did win at 11/8.
    On pricing and record keeping i wish to be totally transparent for we all have our doubts on many of tipsters who charge mickey mouse prices for their poor quality bets and no doubt many of them would have claimed the 5/2 about that McCoy winner.
    Hugh i stress not having ago at you this is my general view for everyone,for once again if anyone is following my bets then i want them to win and if they achieve a better price on one compared to the majority then that is a bonus for the individual.
    Cheers
    Colin

    1. Yes Colin, I agree with your points but yesterday’s sp of 11/10 in a reformed market failed to reflect the reality of what I think anyone choosing to follow my selection would have got even after a R4.

      I suppose it is just an anomaly. The difference for the thread on the day is a .38pt loss at price when posted versus a 4pt loss at 11/10 which doesn’t seem right.

      Maybe the best thing is just to strike yesterday out otherwise I mislead by showing to great a loss or not enough.

      Josh, adjudication?
      Hugh

      1. Hi Hugh

        One for me today 1.40 Buster Thomas advice 2/1 four non runners Won at 4/7 SP so for my records recorded it at SP 4/7 and BOG 4/7,again for the pittance of difference not worth messing about.
        Anyway watching with interest your winter bets,what was your final profit on your 2yos
        Cheers
        Colin

        1. On 2yo’s I peaked at 36pts and then by early July I was down to 22.13. Thereafter for personal reasons I was only able to post sporadically and didn’t maintain my records which were only on the daily notes not on a spreadsheet. My guess would be that I ended up about 12 points up.

          Next season unless fate intervenes I think I shall set the parameters of the season as Brocklesby to Glorious Goodwood. By the end of June I am exhausted by all the trekking about and my focus and enthusiasm dwindles.
          Hugh

      2. Hugh, if you feel hard done by it then I guess you would need to keep two different results; 1 at BOG prices and one at SP. I don’t think it’s possible to pick and choose from the two

        Keep up the good work, do you have any long term results from your selections or have you just only just started recording?

        1. Only just started. I intend to post results and strike rate monthly. Hence why I didn’t want to mess up what had been a good run with with a strange stat. As Colin says I can’t pick and choose so I’ll post up for November later with a note about yesterday’s result.
          Hugh

  11. Thursday’s results……
    Ayr 1.55 Rainy City…………. 12.0 Lose @ 30.0
    Kemp’ 5.00 Intrepidly…………. 16.4 Lose @ 140.0
    Chel’ 8.45 Autumn Leaves….. 18.0 Lose @ 56.8

  12. Today’s possibilities…..
    N/b 12.45 Dustin Des Mottes…..10.0
    N/b 1.50 Spiritofthegames…….5.0
    N/b 2.25 Beggars Wishes………6.2

    Will update figures for month end over the weekend.

  13. Already quite a day for the Ben Pauling “2nd career run” angle – unfortunately I didn’t double them up!

    1. Yep i have had a good start to the day …” bright forecast ” popped up in one of my first time out systems ( i got 90.00 ish on betfair 🙂 ) .. unexpected and much needed joy pour moi !! … lets see if i cant give it all back now 🙂
      gl/gb

        1. Totally agree Josh if anyone wishes to crow prove the bets in advance and let everyone on here enjoy beating the bookies,that is what its all about!!! in my eyes.
          So come on Johnny B and George B prove your bets in advance and let us all win,looking forward to tomorrows board.
          Cheers
          Colin

          1. ………………………………………………. TUMBLEWEED !……………………………….. 🙂

          2. Colin,

            I wasn’t crowing, just the opposite in fact, bemoaning the fact that I hadn’t done them in a double. I actually thought that the Pauling system was something which had been mentioned before on the RTP forum, like Martin’s K Burke a/w runners which has also had a double figure winner today.
            I don’t do tipping, not able to compete with the likes of yourself, Josh and Nick, but I do like to follow systems and angles where I do occasionally get the better of the enemy.

          3. oh i mean it was part tongue in cheek as i get the systems point and if you’re following plenty it’s unreasonable to post them all etc and probably wouldn’t add much with streams of horses, i know those ones were not tips as such. Yep that angle has been mentioned before. I’ll have to have a brief look, it was -15 to SP today with his NHF runners on second career start, but clearly point of that one is big priced winners I think, some to BFSP. Does best with all hurdlers.

          4. Thank you Josh, that sums it up very succinctly. I had a “short list” of 17 this morning and have neither the time nor the inclination to post them on a daily basis. I am sure that you will soon highlight any of your methods/systems which are proving profitable!

          5. Hi George B
            Please read my reply to Johnny B for we are all here to help one another beat the bookies
            Cheers
            Colin

          6. Hi Johnny B

            I am a systems and method man but do not always have time to check many of Joshs methods so if you are watching or backing any of the methods and they are proving profitable put the bets up on the board and it will help many on here and this applies to anyone reading this we are here to help each other to beat the bookie and built up our bank balance.
            Cheers
            Colin

  14. Hey Josh, wasn’t going to remind you about Newbury tomorrow as it looked like my pal messed up with the tickets on offer. Turns out after a few emails, we got complementary tickets in premier, so it’s back on

    So if you do manage to have a look through the card … brilliant! If you don’t, no bother whatsoever

  15. For weeks there have been complaints about firm ground SP2A mentioned it nearly every day. Now had some rain and Doncaster has been abandoned due to unsafe ground. How had that happened? Bought tickets for tomorrow but more rain forecast – is there any chance it will be on?

    1. I don’t know the reasons Mike but it was on the fast side I believe, and as such if they have had rain on top of quick ground, there’s a chance it became slippy – or the turf husbandry has been shoddy and there were loose parts. I haven’t looked into it in depth. More rain may be a good thing, hopefully ok tomorrow. Depends what aspect of unsafe ground was.

    2. Mike
      Not watched Doncaster today here in Sheffield no rain today and about 30 mins from Doncaster as the crow flies ,google Doncaster race course for the clerk of the course phone number and give them a call they will give you an update.

      Racing abandoned due to slippery ground at the bend by the stands,should be OK tomorrow,ground staff will be working on it has i type.

      Colin

  16. Should be alright with more rain. There was a horse slipped on the same bend in an earlier race. Probably greasy on top as not enough rain to get in to the ground. A good soaking should help.
    Hugh

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