Members Daily Post: 29/11/18 (complete)

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack

2.Any Tips/Notes (Daily Tips/Festival Tips/other thoughts)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack

Warwick

1.45 – 

Malton Rose (all hncps) 14,30 16/1 S2A  UP

Oakley Hall (all hncps) 14 20/1 S2A UP

Carrigmoorna Matt (all hncps) 12/1 S2 UP

Hastrubal (micro age) G1 7/1 2nd 8/1 

 

Ayr

1.20- 

Plus Jamais (all hncps) 8/1 UP

Mighty Thunder (m TJC) 14 H3 I3  10/3 UP

1.55 – Kilbree Chief (m TJC) 14 20/1 S2A UP

3.00 – Side of The Road (hncp h) 25/1 S2A  UP

 

Taunton

2.40 – Soulsaver (hncp h + m runs) 14 G1 8/1 

3.45 – 

Bonza Girl (all hncps) w1 14 H3 I3 9/4  WON 9/4>6/4 

Mrs Burbidge (m runs) H3 9/1 UP

 

Irish Bonus Stats 

3.05 – Serious Ego (hncp h) 14 13/2  UP

3.35 – Askari (hncp h) 14 H1 5/2 2nd 

 

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KEY

H1/H3= HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)

G1/G3 = Geegeez GoldSpeed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated

I1/I3 =  Inform Racing Speed Ratings – Top Rated or Top 3

14,30 = Geegeez Goldtrainer form’ indicators14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr3010+ runs last 30 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr

S1-S6 : S = ‘Strategy’ and refers to the ‘advised strategies’ in the link below. S1 = ‘Strategy 1’. Added on morning of racing along with the price. w1won last start.   w2won two starts ago (tracking as of 15th Feb 2018)

NEW! Welcome Video 2018/19>>>Watch HERE>>>

The Strategies: Where should you start? Some ideas HERE>>> 

‘Flat Strategies/results‘: Flat 2017 Read HERE>>>(updated to end Sept 2018)

‘Jumps Strategies/results’: Jumps 2017/18 Read HERE>>>(updated to end Sept 2018)

Research Articles: (TTP reports/Test Zone/Monthly Articles/Big Meetings Notes) READ HERE>>>

VIDEOS: Members Repository: HERE>>> . All Public (non members only) Videos HERE>>>

IMPORTANT: More Welcome Info  HERE>>> (please read) (inc must watch videos :)) 

Contact: email:  – info@racingtoprofit.co.uk  … or failing that… racingtoprofit@gmail.com 

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2.Any Tips/Notes (Daily Tips/Festival Tips/other thoughts)

Daily Tips(2017 Sept-Dec: 31/176, +110.75) (2018: 28/319,100p, -19.2) (1 point win /1 pt EW bets) Big Race/Festival Tips (2018: +152)

Daily Tips

1.45 War – Oakley Hall – 1 point win – 18/1 (lad/BV/Coral/Boyle) 16/1 (the rest) UP 20/1, hmmm, poor. Weak enough in the market sadly, never really picked up bridle, looks like a bigger issue than just fences/first run LTO. He’s clearly better than that when they find key again. Damn.

that’s all for daily tips, 8.40, write up…

The market suggests the fav is winning this and he is the right fav. He brings some of the best recent handicap hurdle form into this and his profile suggests the softening ground wont be an inconvenience and may help if anything. There is a slight stamina Q to prove as well over this trip/ground but I suspect he’ll be fine. He won’t be far away however this is a fascinating contest and it could be a race worth following, given that so many are seemingly unexposed with their best days ahead of them. The market may guide with the Jonjo horse but having looked through I think he has some of the best, if not the best, novice hurdle form on the table inc finishing ahead of the Lee horse at Ascot in Nov 17. That race, and a few others he’s run in, have produced plenty of winners inc a few in and around him now in the mid to high 130s. He is lightly raced in this sphere and it’s his first go in a handicap hurdle. He PU LTO on his first run of the season, over 25f at Aintree. They revert to hurdles quickly here, he returns to softer, stays a bit further than this trip and the CP return. The fact he returns within 32 days and they return to hurdles so quickly may suggest that the PU was very much down to him not taking to fences as yet, in their judgement. It could be it was symptomatic of a deeper problem with him but I think his price was worth chancing given his unexposed profile and he should come on for it. Jonjo is in decent form, 5/21,6p the last 14 days – that’s as consistent as he gets really! If you take out the fav then this is very open and you want one at a price. Hopefully Nick or myself have landed on the right ones for a nice return, if the fav fluffs his lines, but that’s a short price for any big field handicap.

It’s possible one of the other big priced stats quals on this page leaves me annoyed. Malton Rose struggled to get competitive in a couple of summer handicap hurdles and the softening ground is a complete unknown. He looks to have suffered for dotting up in a maiden and his mark may need to come down. But the ground is more an unknown and he may relish it of course. Another break here suggesting he’s had problems/been tricky to train. But the money is now coming. Lavelle’s is unexposed but hasn’t shown enough for me yet even at 14s. He hasn’t got within 14l of anything yet over hurdles but this is only his 4th go, second in a handicap. He is up in class from that last run also. The Hobbs horse is unexposed but needs more, as does the King horse who hasn’t pulled up any trees just yet in his career, now 0/7,0p, but again, lightly raced and will probably come on for his reappearance and King is in form. So, you get the picture. I may not have mentioned the winner yet – well Hastrubal, Storm Control and Carrigmorna Matt could maybe be given squeaks- I think a few others have better form to date than the last of those mentioned.  So, a race to keep an eye on and there will be many handicap wins between this lot you’d think moving forward at C3/4 level, and one or two may go on to much better things. I’ll chance the Jonjo stats qualifier at the prices.

 

TEST Best of the Stats Quals? (15/54,28p, +13.1 , all 1 point win) 

12.35 Warw – Dissavril – 5/1 (gen) UP

2.15 War – Dauphiness – 4/1 (bet365/BetfS/PP/UniB) 7/2 (the rest) (-30p R4, fav a NR) UP 

that’s all for the test today, 09.27, write up…

Dissavril – i’d fall of my seat if one of the top 3 didn’t win this, with the rest seemingly making up the numbers/gaining experience/awaiting handicap marks etc. Famous last words. I thought Lavelle’s mare was a shade overpriced here. Henderson’s could be anything – well all three are in that bracket- but won a weak bumper and it’s her first run over hurdles and on softening ground. Maybe she’ll improve for it but I thought her price was short enough in that context, and has fitness to prove – of course that won’t be an issue from this yard if they want her fit. The money is pouring on and mines on the drift so we shall see if i’ve been foolish diving in. The selection won an ok listed mares bumper at Market Rasen earlier in the year before running no sort of race at Aintree. She ran ok when last seen on seasonal reappearance, with the second that day winning twice since, so some substance. Her jumping could improve but she may appreciated a bigger field/stronger pace and the yard are in form. She’ll be here to run her race I hope, although if she goes to 7s/8s+, maybe she wont!

Dauphiness – I was on the fence a tad but took what seems like market support as a positive here and when I looked again at the race, she’s worth chancing just because how weak it is. It’s rubbish. Bar the fav, who dotted up LTO over 25f on good ground. – And she’s now a non runner! Back to this one..she hits the new Johnson/Daly angle below- he doesn’t usually take long getting wins from this sort. She showed nothing in maidens but her price suggests that was expected and she may have been a longer term project, taking time to grow and mature. She’s 6 now and for breeding purposes they wont want to mess around, and will want wins on the board for the future. Daly can ready them, his are running ok (0/15,7 places last 14 days), Johnson is on, and she ‘could’ be thrown in and now a different horse to when last seen. The market suggests that may be the case. Here’s hoping.

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I did look at Definite Winner from the test zone below, but I thought it a coin toss on what we know between him and the other market leader. I suppose that view probably makes 5/2, 11/4 value come to think of it, but both hacked up LTO and one of them should be winning this you’d think. We shall see which one is better/has more in hand and whether I regret dodging that one. Given i’ve taken on a steamer for Henderson above, maybe that logic needs some work. 

 

‘review’…well i’ve just gone through the 50 bets mark and in truth i’d take a repeat of those results after every 50 bets or so. A 28% win SR and a 28% ROI. We shall see if they can be sustained but focusing more on the stats quals and being more relaxed about price (not my strict avoidance of anything under 8s where historically i’ve been useless, albeit probably without testing myself properly). The stats content, section 1 + 3, continue to fire out plenty of winners which is always a good starting point, and I’ll do my best to keep landing on the odd one. I’ll ponder the results again when we hit 100 bets but with any luck it will just be the case of this being the approach to all daily tips (+ bigger priced ones) which along with my ‘big race/festival race’ approach should be a decent enough tipping portfolio. But, time will tell and i’ll keep working hard to make the ‘best of the stats quals’ a success. It is only +15 of course, but promising if nothing else and that would be a decent monthly return. 

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3.Micro System Test Zone

Autumn Trainers 

1.45 Warw – High Noon (14/1<) 14/1

Irish Raiders (16/1< guide)

1.20 Ayr – Steamboat Bill 16/1 UP

R Hobson (33/1< guide)

3.20 Warw – Filipine 40/1 UP

Paddy Brennan (14/1< guide)

1.10 Warw- Cuddles Mcgraw 9/4 WON 9/4 

 

Jumps Fact Sheet 2018/19 

Trainers to Follow 

1.20 Ayr – Niceandeasy (11/1< guide) 4/1 UP

1.55 Ayr – Mac N Cheese (11/1< guide) 6/1 UP

12.35 Warw – Dissavril 11/2 UP

LTO Winning Hurdlers 

3.45 Taunt – Definite Winner 10/3 3rd

Johnson/Daly (16/1< guide)

2.15 Warw – Dauphiness 9/2 UP

Jockeys/Chasers

2.50 Warw – Carlo Rocks (9/1< best) 16/1 UP

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

Michael Scudamore

If you missed my comment yesterday, in relation to a post from Martin, you may or may not find the following worth noting depending on your liking for such research

…he’s certainly stepped up a gear since start of 2016 with his handicap chasers (inc novice hncps) , suggesting he’s getting better/better horses/new owners etc.

So, all hncp chasers (inc Novices), 20/1 or shorter…

In April-Sept he’s 9/79,23p, -10 SP, +10 BFSP, AE 0.86

Oct-March (main ‘winter season’) : 30/108,47p, +86 SP, +103 BFSP

Of those… sent off over 20/1 SP only 0/9,1p so far so maybe a guide, could have a biggie drop in at some point.

Those with 0-3 chase wins, so arguably more unexposed/more to come: 27/84,39p, +102 SP, +118 BFSP.

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Saturday Big Race Trends 

To follow/TBC, I’ll get The ‘Hennessy posted Thursday afternoon at some point. That race will be previewed on the free post on Sat. I’ll also try and attack a handicap hurdle, trends/field size allowing etc.

About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

31 Comments

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  • Slow time of the year and putting your hand in the cookie jar is more likely to find an old mousetrap. I tend to have several theory systems going this time of year and hope they don’t cost too much but one carried over from the summer is the geegeez instant expert place system.
    0 winners from 3 selections 1 place – 1.6 pts
    Like London buses, after a long wait 3 come tomorrow. As this system is based on their place form I really need 5/1 plus to justify a bet and lo and behold all 3 are short. So I cant count them as bets although I will be having a patent, trixie type bet.

    1.45 War Unblinking
    3.10 Tau Jonagold
    7.30 Kem Wallflower

    chubnut 28/11/18 7:19 PM Reply


    • Actually think its 0/2 1 place -1.6 pts. Tough keeping logs when your older than Colin !! where’s those smilies Josh

      chubnut 28/11/18 8:26 PM Reply


      • I think a smilie face should convert using a semi colon and a bracket. 🙂 :+)

        Josh 28/11/18 8:56 PM Reply


  • 12.10 Ayr Self Control 28/1. Looks interesting for Tristan Davidson in 1st time hood. 1st run for the yard after leaving Paul Nicholls.

    Andy N 28/11/18 8:40 PM Reply


    • looks like a sighter for a 1st time hcap to bring in the turkey money 🙂

      chubnut 29/11/18 8:50 AM Reply


  • Bally Lagan Taunton 15:10 1pt e/w 15/2
    Stockburn Warwick 13:45 1pt e/w 20/1

    Nick Mazur 28/11/18 8:45 PM Reply


  • today’s selections,
    Ayr.
    1-20. Artic Vodka 33-1
    1-55. Kilbree Chief 20-1

    martin whittle 29/11/18 2:30 AM Reply


    • both 1/2 pt ew

      martin whittle 29/11/18 2:32 AM Reply


    • with a lot of rain overnight and much more to come at Ayr i’m adding a bet to the 1-20 Plus Jamais 8-1 1pt ew

      martin whittle 29/11/18 6:53 AM Reply


      • i have also upgraded Kilbree Chief to 1pt ew

        martin whittle 29/11/18 7:08 AM Reply


        • ouch what an awful day allround ,down 5 pts on my selections and down on all accounts worst day i have had in a very long time.

          martin whittle 29/11/18 6:49 PM Reply


  • Another place yesterday
    Warwick 2.15 1pt e/w Parlour Maid 12’s and drifting
    Taunton 1.00 1pt e/w Bang On 6/1
    Ayr 2.25 Kalahari Queen 1pt Win 100/30
    Ayr 3.00 Lastin Memories 1pt w/w 6/1
    Hugh

    alpha2 29/11/18 8:02 AM Reply


    • Good Lord Bang On went off 11/10. Nice to get 6’s

      alpha2 29/11/18 1:21 PM Reply


  • RECENT TIPS
    Daily
    A 3.00 – Side of the Road on 1st run @ 25
    ………..McGintys Dream on 8th run @ 14
    A 3.30 – Craiganboy on 4th run @ 12
    T 3.45 – Chasing Headlights on 2nd run @ 20 (the odd 25)
    K 8.00 – Diamond Reflection on 7th run @ 7
    3m+
    A 1.55 – Onderun on 2nd run @ 12
    GL

    Titus 29/11/18 9:26 AM Reply


    • Got 29s on craiganboy saved my day Titus thanks for posting these mate

      christopher jones 29/11/18 3:45 PM Reply


      • Twice the odds, nice one. Need to backcheck bfsp. Never looked in trouble but surprised it readily left the odds on floundering.
        Someone a while ago posted a link for past bfsp. I should have saved it then and didn’t so if anyone’s got it can you post please.
        Cheers
        Mike

        Titus 29/11/18 3:53 PM Reply


        • Mike

          You only need a free Timeform account to get any historic BSP

          Ken McKenzie 29/11/18 5:00 PM Reply


          • yep, and HRB has them now also in their results.

            Josh 29/11/18 5:28 PM Reply


  • RT +7.75
    545 human nature 10/3

    kevo19 29/11/18 9:44 AM Reply


  • COLINS BETS

    5.00 Kempton Villette BOG 10/1

    ELITE BETS
    Chelmsford
    7.45 Calling Grumpy BOG 13/2
    7.45 Global Art BOG 6/1
    8.15 Arlecchino’s Arc BOG 14/1 BB stand alone at 16/1

    cleafe 29/11/18 10:03 AM Reply


    • I was beginning to think the good Lord hated me. 4 seconds and a last fence faller before my hero strikes!

      Francis 29/11/18 5:07 PM Reply


    • Colins bets Villette 10/1 into 11/2 wins
      Thanks Francis

      cleafe 29/11/18 5:11 PM Reply


    • Well done Colin, I guess that changes the reflection of the months results to date?

      Thanks

      Chris Sengelow 29/11/18 5:26 PM Reply


      • Chris been breaking about even most of the month last November was -41.52 at SP started putting the bets up in September last year and had 5 winning months out of 6 at SP.
        This November SP + 1/2 point BOG + 13 points,so a fast improvement over last November.

        cleafe 29/11/18 5:38 PM Reply


        • Nice one Colin. Saved my day. One more would give me profit or is that too greedy 🙂

          Ken McKenzie 29/11/18 6:25 PM Reply


  • Lambourn Trainers
    This is only a TEST no prove it is only my reading into their write ups,i am going to record them so thought would put them up.
    2.40 Taunton Bodes Well BOG 7/1
    8.00 Kempton Cosmogyral BOG 7/1

    Back later for a few trainers have not put up their write ups for Kempton and Chelmsford and the main one is Charlie Hills.
    Colin.

    cleafe 29/11/18 10:55 AM Reply


  • Philip Hobbs and Richard Johnson handicappers with 1 or 2 runs in past 90 days:

    1.45 Ballygown Bay, 1 point each way at 10/1.

    Good luck.

    martin colwell 29/11/18 11:08 AM Reply


  • Wednesdays results….
    Weth’ 2.20 Robbing The Prey……..9.8 Lose @ 7.0
    Punc’ 2.30 Kildorerry……………….8.6 2nd @ 11.2
    Wolv’ 3.55 Sunshine Coast………..11.0 Lose @ 16.5

    A little disappointing yesterday with Kildorerry ridden 6 lengths out the back for two circuits only to be beaten a couple of lengths. Then after drifting like the proverbial freight train, Nicola Currie successfully puts her horse to sleep in the stalls and must have given them at least a furlong head start. Was none of the usual sycophantic stuff from the presenters after the race as to how great a jockey she is. It wasn’t even mentioned and no replay either.

    Not that I’m all bitter and twisted about it! 🙁

    Tim 29/11/18 12:16 PM Reply


  • Today’s possibilities…..

    Ayr 1.55 Rainy City…………. 12.0
    Kemp’ 5.00 Intrepidly…………. 16.4
    Chel’ 8.45 Autumn Leaves….. 18.0

    Tim 29/11/18 12:58 PM Reply


  • Hugh
    R4 Fav pulled out priced evens/11/10 make it 45 pence in the £
    Do not get to excited
    Cheers
    Colin

    cleafe 29/11/18 1:43 PM Reply


  • Lambourn Trainers TEST

    One more

    5.00 Kempton Livvy’s Dream BOG 11/4

    cleafe 29/11/18 4:19 PM Reply


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