Members Daily Post: 28/11/18 (complete)

Test x4 + write ups, Section 1 (complete), test zone

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack

2.Any Tips/Notes (Daily Tips/Festival Tips/other thoughts)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack

Wetherby 

12.45 – Pookie Pekan (m TJC) 13/2 WON 13/2>11/4 

2.20 – Savello (hncp chase) G3 7/2  3rd 3/1 

2.50 – 

Blue Hussar (m TJC) 11/1 S2 3rd

Zig Zag (micro class/dist) 10/1 S2 UP

 

Hereford 

No stats profile this year. (not enough stats!)

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KEY

H1/H3= HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)

G1/G3 = Geegeez GoldSpeed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated

I1/I3 =  Inform Racing Speed Ratings – Top Rated or Top 3

14,30 = Geegeez Goldtrainer form’ indicators14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr3010+ runs last 30 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr

S1-S6 : S = ‘Strategy’ and refers to the ‘advised strategies’ in the link below. S1 = ‘Strategy 1’. Added on morning of racing along with the price. w1won last start.   w2won two starts ago (tracking as of 15th Feb 2018)

NEW! Welcome Video 2018/19>>>Watch HERE>>>

The Strategies: Where should you start? Some ideas HERE>>> 

‘Flat Strategies/results‘: Flat 2017 Read HERE>>>(updated to end Sept 2018)

‘Jumps Strategies/results’: Jumps 2017/18 Read HERE>>>(updated to end Sept 2018)

Research Articles: (TTP reports/Test Zone/Monthly Articles/Big Meetings Notes) READ HERE>>>

VIDEOS: Members Repository: HERE>>> . All Public (non members only) Videos HERE>>>

IMPORTANT: More Welcome Info  HERE>>> (please read) (inc must watch videos :)) 

Contact: email:  – info@racingtoprofit.co.uk  … or failing that… racingtoprofit@gmail.com 

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2.Any Tips/Notes (Daily Tips/Festival Tips/other thoughts)

Daily Tips(2017 Sept-Dec: 31/176, +110.75) (2018: 28/318,100p, -18.2) (1 point win /1 pt EW bets) Big Race/Festival Tips (2018: +152)

Daily Tips

NONE today.

 

TEST Best of the Stats Quals? (15/52,28p, +15.1 , all 1 point win) 

12.35 H – Agincourt Reef – 4/1 (gen) 3rd

12.45 W – Pookie Pekan WON 5/1>11/4 

2.20 W – Savello – 7/2 (gen) 3rd 3/1

2.50 W – Blue Hussar – 15/2 (gen) 8s (odd place) 3rd 13/2 …odd run, nothing beating winner but flew home late, maybe he’s just a monkey. Market spoke for the winner late.

that’s all for the test, 09.16, write ups on way…

Agincourt Reef- one from the test zone here. I thought 4s may be decent enough and he should be fav in this really, having won well enough 2 days ago. Of course you never quite know how they’ll come out of that but he cruised into the final flight and was only shaken up after it, chased home by an unexposed McCain horse who appeared to enjoy the step up in trip. The blinkers appeared to work although he’d run ok on his run before this win, and with any luck they will work again. Teal has been quiet for an age, suggesting a problem of sorts, but they are all starting to run well again and he’s had three winners in the last 14 days. All of his runners, in all codes, may be worth a second glance in the coming days. This one races prominently and stays further so I suspect Harry T will be aggressive enough on him. If he runs as he did 2 days ago I didn’t think he’d be far away in what looks a weak enough race on paper again.

Pookie Pekan – Coltherd has always liked this one I think and I always think it’s a positive when, if earmarked as a chaser, they don’t spend too long over hurdles. He’s unexposed here, takes a slight step up in trip, but importantly steps down from a strong looking C3 novice into an open enough C4 handicap chase. That was also his first run of the season and having watched it back he did jump well in the main. I suspect they’ll race him prominently and I thought he looked the most interesting horse in this race.

Savello – from a horse with his career ahead of him to the 12 year old. Possibly a risky one but he’s worth a go based on the analysis of the others, as much as his own chance. If he can build on that second LTO after a break, beaten by an unexposed/younger horse, I thought he’d be in there pitching in this. He can be patiently ridden but there are 3/4 habitual front runners in this and they may all take each other on/force errors. Often it doesn’t work out that way but if Harry can track the pace in mid division he shouldn’t have an excuse. Most of these are either at the top of their handicap ceiling/above it/have to prove can win from marks/ are out of form/may need the run/haven’t shown much/or won’t enjoy this soft ground. One or more of those niggles applies to every other runner in this, and bar his age Savello looks solid against them. He was formerly rated much higher but clearly isn’t the same horse anymore, but it looks as though he retains enough ability for a race like this. We shall soon find out.

Blue Hussar – I assume this one may have been tipped somewhere as his price seemed to crash in a short space of time. That or Micky got his cash out! 🙂 I was deliberating about tipping this one at 10s/11s and by the time I got off the fence his price had dipped to 15/2 generally, and in part with this test I don’t want to beat myself up too much about price- this could still be 2/3 points too big. In any case, this is only his 4th handicap hurdle and it’s his first in class 4. He steps up in trip, drops in class, and races on softer ground than LTO. All of those are positives I think, esp given his best form on the flat was with some dig. He ran an odd race LTO. Maybe he found the ground too lively or the class too much, but his jockey allowed him to drift back through the field before just plugging on under hands and heels. He never picked up the stick. He finished ahead of Sleepy Haven in that race, albeit that was his first run in 250 odd days. The other niggle was the form of the yard- they seem a bit cold with his last winner at the start of the month, but a few have been running on into place in recent days. I also thought the fav was worth taking on at the prices. Ian Williams can work wonders but the horse has never been the most fluent over hurdles, is 0/10,2p in handicap hurdles and has to prove his stamina. That makes 3s short enough, but no doubt he may rock up here, relish the trip and have 10lb of improvement from somewhere. Anyway, Blue Hussar has a handicap hurdle or two in him this season and it could be today. There’s a chance he gets an easy enough lead or in any case is up there. The slower pace on this ground/trip/class compared to LTO may help and if he’s bang there turning for home I suspect he won’t be far away come the business end.

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3.Micro System Test Zone

Jumps Fact Sheet 2018/19 

Jockeys/Chasers

3.05 H – Corner Creek (25/1<) 7/1 UP

LTO Winning Hurdlers Starting Points 

12.35 H – Agincourt Reef 4/1 3rd

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4.Any general messages/updates etc

Video… i’m in the midst of doing a ‘launch’ for the members club and as part of that I recorded a video looking at how I made the TTP stats report, my thinking behind certain bits and a dive into how I used HRB. It’s short for me, at only 26 minutes! 🙂 But 118 folk seem to have watched it already and you can do so HERE>>> if you so wish. 

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

27 Responses

  1. no selections again today just can’t find something with any value.
    in the Hereford 3-05. Againn Dul Aghaidh makes his handicap debut , has won 5 ptp’s , given an opening mark of 112 and there’s no knowing if that is fair but with nothing else peaking my interest i’ll have a small ew at around 11-1.

  2. Just a place yesterday for Holbrook Park at 8/1
    Today’s selection
    12.35 Hereford 1pt e/w Soulsaver 9’s and 10’s available.
    Hugh

  3. Interesting comment from Jamie Snowden who tipped an 11-1 winner yesterday and has Sam Twiston-Davies booked today:

    2:05PM

    TIMCODA 66/1

    Jamie Snowden

    Timcoda was a consistent Irish pointer and ran well to be second on bumper debut behind a good horse. He found two miles too sharp on hurdling debut and would certainly have an each way chance here at a good price.

    1. good stuff Andy, I keep forgetting to check out the Lambourn Trainers quotes etc, should have read his thoughts before the chase I dived into yesterday, may have persuaded me to have a saver!

      Link here for those interested… https://lambourntrainers.com/todays-lambourn-runners/

      Very interesting they step him up to this distance in a maiden hurdle – that’s the sort of distance move you’d make on handicap debut, having been outpaced a few times over shorter in maidens ensuring your mark is workable and you can get a few wins etc. Some nibbles for him and i’ve had a small EW at 40s. He wouldn’t be one to say every horse has an EW chance, unlike Twister!!

      Josh

    2. hmm, well a fun run to a point! I thought he looked nailed on for a place at least before they headed for home but he soon fell in a hole/stuck in the mud. The money didn’t half pile on. Maybe wants better ground, but they clearly think he has wins in him soon. one to track.

          1. No winning is irrelevant. Any time you get 40/1 on a 17/2 you’ve won. You could have easily laid it off and made a profit.

          2. Is that a deliberate jibe Colin, I do hope so haha. That’s why I need emojis. And if you’re not pulling my leg then I don’t even know where to start with that comment, but I hope you are! 🙂

          3. Josh
            Only kidding cannot do mojos

            Had a look at that Lambourn trainers website looks good and they actually made that 66/1 their Nap,have you watched it for a while for their used to be a subscription one doing the rounds,todays performance from Lambourn trainers impressive so far.
            Colin

          4. Oh that quote page has been free for an age I think, certainly since I first clocked it a few months back. It’s a decent resource, and useful/added info if nothing else, albeit Id never want to be put off a horse down to a trainer quote if you like the price etc.
            I though the x3 !!! indicated you were kidding.
            Josh

          5. Feel also that over a period of time you should pick up their language of how they produce their right ups and may give a better view of what they really fancy.
            When i went racing regularly often used to go to the saddling boxes area and listen for the magic words Off today and you knew the horse was a trier.
            Warren Greatrex today should go close Won 3/1 and hoping for a clear round to see him in the frame Won 9/4,for me the bold statement from him was positive but i will look at this over a few weeks and record them to see if their is a way in from the trainers language.
            Pleased that you put the website up Josh.
            Colin.

          6. Another one on the Lambourn line,Charles Hills on Delicious Won 8/1.
            This filly ran more encouraging race last time and has come on again( my reading after that run worked better on the gallops)if she breaks well i think she will go close.

            Well worth watching for a month or two.

  4. RECENT TIPS
    Daily
    H 1.55 – Le Capricieux on 5th run @ 8
    …………Overawed on 1st run @ 25
    W 12.45 – Cash to Ash on 2nd run @ 7/2
    …………..Le Drapeau on 2nd run @ 8
    N 3.15 – Mable Lee on 8th run @ 10
    …………Cuppacoco on 2nd run @ 8
    W 5.00 – Tan Arabiq on 4th run @ 14
    Festival
    W 2.50 – Always Resolute on 4th run @ 3
    3m+
    H 3.05 – Firebird Flyer on 1st run @ 10
    GL

  5. COLINS BETS
    Hereford
    12.35 Agincourt Reef BOG 4/1
    Newcastle
    3.15 Letmestopyouthere BOG 5/1
    3.15 Burmese Blazer BOG 8/1

    ELITE BETS

    3.15 Newcastle Letmestopyouthere BOG 5/1

  6. Tuesday’s results……

    Ling’ 2.00…….Oxford Blu………9.8 Lose @ 16.0
    Ling’ 2.30….Somewhere To Be..8.6 Lose @ 14.5
    Sout’ 3.10….Mary Tolouse……..14.0 Lose @ 82.4
    Sedg’ 3.20….Mance Rayder…….5.0 Lose @ 5.8

  7. Michael Scudamore handicap chasers <20/1:

    3.05 Hereford – Corner Creek, 1 point each way at 7/1 BOG.

    Dan Skelton chasers at Wetherby:

    2.20 Savello, 2 points win at 7/2.

    Good luck Martin

  8. best of luck Martin,
    Yep just taken a look at Scudamore, has certainly stepped up a gear since start of 2016 with his handicap chasers (inc novice hncps) , suggesting he’s getting better/better horses/new owners etc.
    So, all hncp chasers, 20/1 or shorter…
    In April-Sept he’s 9/79,23p, -10 SP, +10 BFSP, AE 0.86
    Oct-March (main ‘winter season) : 30/108,47p, +86 SP, +103 BFSP

    Of those… sent off over 20/1 SP only 0/9,1p so far so maybe a guide, could have a biggie drop in at some point.
    Those with 0-3 chase wins, so arguably more unexposed/more to come: 27/84,39p, +102 SP, +118 BFSP.

    Josh

    1. yep.. well there is Betfair Place… but that is a separate market to the BFSP win market (main), and the prices for that are not a guide for the place market. But yep it’s possible for every race, and for extra places. I don’t know how the returns compare to standard industry bookmaker odds etc.
      Josh

  9. Today’s possibilities…..
    Weth’ 2.20 Robbing The Prey……..9.8
    Punc’ 2.30 Kildorerry……………….8.6
    Wolv’ 3.55 Sunshine Coast………..11.0

  10. emmmmmmmm i see we have a messrs henry daly and dicky johnson deadly duo happening tomorrow ………….. mildly exciting at 10/1 at the mo ?????
    can’t wait 🙂
    gl/gb

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