Members Daily Post: 27/11/18 (complete)

Test x2, Section 1 (complete) , test zone, big race tipping musings

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack

2.Any Tips/Notes (Daily Tips/Festival Tips/other thoughts)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack

Sedgefield

12.20 – Hope For Glory (micro TJC/runs) w1 G3 13/2 S1 Fell 12/1 (15.00 BFSP, qual S1 with the ‘drifter’ approach), travelled/jumped well bar one fence when came down, don’t think he’d have been far away but will never know.

12.50 –

New List (m age) 9/1 UP

Promise of Peace (m runs) ES+ H3 15/8 S3A 2nd 

1.20 –

Millie The Minx (all hncps) ES+ H1 I3 G3 3/1 S3A# S4 WON 3/1>6/4 

The Herds Garden (m runs) ES+ G3 5/1 S3A UP

 

Lingfield

1.30 – Hint of Grey (m runs) 11/4 2nd

2.00 – Ar Mest (m runs) 6/1 UP

2.30 – Scotchtown (m age) 15/2 UP

 

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KEY

H1/H3= HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)

G1/G3 = Geegeez GoldSpeed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated

I1/I3 =  Inform Racing Speed Ratings – Top Rated or Top 3

14,30 = Geegeez Goldtrainer form’ indicators14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr3010+ runs last 30 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr

S1-S6 : S = ‘Strategy’ and refers to the ‘advised strategies’ in the link below. S1 = ‘Strategy 1’. Added on morning of racing along with the price. w1won last start.   w2won two starts ago (tracking as of 15th Feb 2018)

NEW! Welcome Video 2018/19>>>Watch HERE>>>

The Strategies: Where should you start? Some ideas HERE>>> 

‘Flat Strategies/results‘: Flat 2017 Read HERE>>>(updated to end Sept 2018)

‘Jumps Strategies/results’: Jumps 2017/18 Read HERE>>>(updated to end Sept 2018)

Research Articles: (TTP reports/Test Zone/Monthly Articles/Big Meetings Notes) READ HERE>>>

VIDEOS: Members Repository: HERE>>> . All Public (non members only) Videos HERE>>>

IMPORTANT: More Welcome Info  HERE>>> (please read) (inc must watch videos :)) 

Contact: email:  – info@racingtoprofit.co.uk  … or failing that… racingtoprofit@gmail.com 

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2.Any Tips/Notes (Daily Tips/Festival Tips/other thoughts)

Daily Tips(2017 Sept-Dec: 31/176, +110.75) (2018: 28/318,100p, -18.2) (1 point win /1 pt EW bets) Big Race/Festival Tips (2018: +152)

Daily Tips

NONE, nothing at big prices on this page luring me in today. On the free post, as it’s a 3m+ hncp chase attacked ‘cold’ i’ve had a go at Holbrook Park, 10/1 , in the 2.30 Lingfield. That won’t be a big price if he needs the run, it will be massive if he’s a1, which his record fresh suggests it may be.

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TEST Best of the Stats Quals? (14/48,24p, +13.1 , all 1 point win) 

1.20 Sedg – Millie The Minx – 10/3 (bet365/WH/BV) 3/1 (the rest) WON 10/3>6/4 

2.50 Sedg – Dr Dunraven – 7/4 (gen) UP 7/4

that will be all for the test, 08.55…write ups…

Millie The Minx…tipped at big prices two starts ago in what was an agonising race where i felt she’d have won/gone very close for a more prominent ride or if the jockey had got her rolling early. Connections must feel she needed settling a tad behind horses but hopefully with experience she may become more tactically versatile. In a race without much pace on today (which any decent connections would be aware of if doing their homework) it would be a tad criminal to ride her cold, but they may well do, and the Vaughan danger horse likes to be ridden that way also. The horse that beat her in that race since came out and ran a decent 1l 3rd in a Class 4, so there’s some substance to that run. She’s more unexposed than her market rival and runs as if she’s a trier, albeit depending on what she does here she could start to look like a horse without a trip. She gets ‘the’ 7lb claimer of the moment on board which may eek out more but in any case that claim may help. He’s been very tactically astute in the races i’ve seen him and of course won the Greatwood which takes some doing for one so inexperienced. I thought 10/3 was a shade too big and the fact she has course experience is a plus, and a reason why her price shouldn’t be that much bigger than the fav. She does have to prove she can win though. It is one of those Sedgefield handicaps where you can never be totally shocked when something comes from the clouds, seemingly out of sorts and not looking like a racehorse. The rest appear out of form to my eyes and/or have searching questions to answer now.

Dr Dunraven… there’s frost in the ground here and if this is GS/tacky, this may look a bad bet, but it’s not as though he’s unproven on a softer surface and he appeared to improve for the switch to Bowen’s yard, like many before him. That is a decent enough trainer upgrade for me, Keighley to Bowen. This one is the yardstick I think- he’s fit, in form, and hacked up when last seen, jumping superbly. I think he should get an easy lead here and young Bowen will want to be aggressive given he stays further. He should be the one they all have to pass and hopefully his jumping finds out the rest- they will have to close at pace turning for home I hope. Bowen does very well at the track and with LTO winners, hence the test angle below! Tayzar is interesting and more unexposed, but he only beat 4 rivals LTO although the second was rated a fair bit higher, but he was held up there and was guessy at a few fences, diving at them a tad. He’s entitled to be learning and may give the selection most to think about. Were he a front runner/had made all LTO i’d have probably dodged the race I suspect. Fin And Game has some decent novice hurdle form which suggests he’ll rate higher than this in time- maybe he’ll be much better than these today, but it’s only his second run over fences and he didn’t pull up any trees when last seen. He probably needed it but I think i’d want to see more from a chaser before taking 4s. He did run well to a point, if not a little keen, and if he’s tracking the selection with easy through this, jumping well, then i’ll be in trouble. I can’t have the others. Snowden’s has set the pace before but over hurdles and this is his first chase start. I’d be mildly surprised if they gunned him out, taking on Bowen’s.

3.Micro System Test Zone

A Honeyball Mares

3.00 Ling – Duhallow Gesture (10/1< guide) 4/9

3.30 Ling – Urca De Lima (10/1< guide) 15/2

D McCain (14/1< guide)

12.50 Sedge – Promise of Peace 15/8

V Williams/November (16/1< guide)

1.30 Ling – Top And Drop 10/3

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Jumps Fact Sheet 2018/19

LTO Winning Trainers

2.50 Sedge – Dr Dunraven (8/1<) 7/4

Jockeys/Chasers

2.30 Ling – Cucklington 15/2

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

The week ahead… Big Races/Festival races…

One of you emailed me today with a polite whinge,(I never mind a polite whinge!) which was probably warranted, about the lack of ‘big race/festival type race’ analysis etc – Given over jumps and in general with my tipping, that’s the one area I appear to have excelled in the last couple of seasons, it was a timely message. All of the free post tipping profit for the year (+50 or so) has been from the big marathon chases (i mean we had the 40/1 Scottish and 33/1 Irish Nat winners this year for example) and when added to the members’ big race/festival profits, is a healthy enough +200 or so points in 2018, at a 50%+ ROI I think, and all of that is from Jumps action mainly. I have no doubt in my ability long term in those big C2/G3 handicaps. So, why the lack of action? Well in part it’s been circumstances… there haven’t been the field sizes with plenty of them in the early weeks of the season – in normal times Cheltenham’s 3 day meeting would have had the full treatment but I was away which wasn’t ideal- not a great time of year to have a week off but there wasn’t a choice sadly, as I wasn’t missing that trip 🙂 Anyway – you will hopefully see an upsurge in such analysis in the coming weeks, starting this Friday/Saturday where there should be a few tasty handicaps to attack, including of course the ‘Hennessy’. These are the races I enjoy looking at the most. Arguably one of the last ‘big races’ I attacked was the C2 novice handicap hurdle finale at Worcester, where I attacked that cold like I would do a big race, and that went rather well. Those races can take 1 / 1.5hour+ to do justice.  I think I will have to manage my daily tipping on Thursday’s/ Friday’s, in prep for the big races- this member reminded me not to forget what I have been good at, and it has been in those big handicaps. It makes sense that I should dedicate a fair amount of my mental tipping energy to those as the weekend draws near. Some rain and bigger field sizes would be welcome also. Onwards, there should be plenty of big race action this weekend. 

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

33 Responses

  1. Haydock already reduced the height and stiffness of the fences which is good news,and would not right off Mighty Bite yet,would disregard Haydocks run and treat it as an exercise run.
    ITV said that it had gone out from 2/1 to 7/2 for the King George not looked but anyone wants to bet him that price could well be massive if still available.

    1. Hmm. You’re more forgiving than me haha. That makes his performance worse. He was tuned up for that race. Interesting analysis by a horse physiotherapist on twitter with picture analysis. Said looked to be overjumping too many and head carriage at times suggests a horse I’ll at odds with himself, in pain. Interesting. May well not turn up at Kempton. I’d want to see another run before steaming into him personally.

      1. He is a very good horse but has a few loose marbles up top. I think that his jumping went to pieces and he lost his rhythm. Haydock is a funny place. I can give him the benefit of the doubt at 7/2 against who he will be up against in The King George. We shall see…

        1. Oh I think there was a mental issue in part. Has to have been you’d hope and he just thought sod it. Surely you’d only take 7/2 today if you thought he’d be shorter and on what basis would that be as he won’t run again before Kempton? So on basis of how bullish Hendo is and/or who turns up? We shall see what happens but I’d be mildly surprised if he went off shorter and the heavens may have opened by then…albeit unlikely around there.

          1. Might Bite likes Kempton; Hendo is a master at getting them back and other horses will come out between now and race day and so that should shorten him up.

          2. I remember reading a Nick Mordin article years ago on Hendos runners in grade 1’s. They only can take a certain number, can’t remember how many possibly 7 and combined with the age of horse and they are then gone. I think hed managed to get 1 horse to win a grade 1 after. That may have changed with Sprinter S more recently. Compared to Nicholls his record with older horses winning grade 1’s is terrible I believe. He’s not known as chemical Nicky for no reason!

          3. I never considered that point but the immediate thing that jumped out at me was Long Run, that’s a very interesting piece you write.

            It does bring home the remarkable job and what remarkable horses Paul Nicholls did with Kauto Star, Denman, Neptune Collonges, Big Bucks etc who seemed to return year after year.

          4. On the day at Haydock 25 chasers went to post and 7 out of the 25 fell or unseated over 25%

            Take away the quality five in Mighty Bites race which all managed to stand up and get round,that then leaves 7 from 20 over 33% fell or unseated and non of them were large fields these % are terrible and no wonder Haydock took rapid action so this could not happen again.

            Whoever is right sure Mighty Bite will come back to Kempton and run well and the days chase form on that terrible day in all chase racers can be taken with a pinch of salt,and not being an Ante Post backer still feel the 7/2 will look good on the day,over fences where he has excelled before.
            Colin

    2. Should really watch the race again but having seen Nicky Henderson inspect the fences prior to the run would imagine the lure of the million pound bonus enticed the run with instructions to Nico see how he goes but ensure he comes home safe for another day.
      Red Rum had a job to win anywhere else bar Aintree in his career at Aintree a total different horse for he could adapt and jump Aintree stiff and unforgiving fences winning the National 3 times and 2nd twice from his 5 runs,in my view with the easy fences today he probably would never have won a National.
      Mighty Bite did not adapt to the fences at Aintree and the term horses for courses springs to mind the main thing he came home safe and will expect a different horse to show up at Kempton.

      1. That wouldn’t have made any difference mate. 2 were non-runners before I tipped (16:27 according to 365) so didn’t and the other was a 16/1 shot which just came out and the price was already the same before the withdrawal.

  2. no selections today.
    i will be keeping my eye on Recognition 66-1 12-50 sedgefield, was a decent novice hurdler obviously has had problems down to 87 from 105 a couple of quid ew just in case they have got him right.
    only others of interest were 2-00 Ar Mest 11-2 and 2-30 Scotchtown 8-1 at Lingfield.

  3. RECENT TIPS
    Daily
    L 2.00 – Ar Mest on 2nd run @ 11/2
    Se1.20 – Glimpse of Gold on 2nd run @ 9/4
    …………Millie the Minx on 2nd run @ 10/3
    Se 2.20 – Fisher Green on 6th run @ 50
    GL

  4. Tim Vaughan in the North:

    1.20 Sedgefield, Glimpse Of Gold, 2 points win at 9/4.

    3.20 Sedgefield, Bolton Boy, 1/2 point win at 25/1.

    Peter Bowen in the North:

    2.50 Sedgefield, Dr Dunraven, 4 points win at 13/8.

    Good luck.

      1. Yes, you have to follow these micros blindly and not think about it, otherwise you put yourself off them.

        1. Are there any other rules to that one Martin? Or just the track, (or what do you count as The North) as Vaughan was only 6/41 at the track before today in last 5 years, operating 32% below market expectations, loss of 27 to SP, but again maybe early prices pay off, but backing all of his Sedge runners blind hasn’t been wise over time anyway, but you landed a very good one today, well done.

          1. It has only been a micro for 4 months for me. No filters. North is from Lancashire and Yorkshire and going north including Scotland. That seems far enough away from the Vaughan stables. It is now plus 35 points for me at level stakes. A 25/1 winner helps.

  5. Morning Josh, i’m going to Newbury on Saturday and wondered if it was possible to have a look through the card for me please? Thanks

    1. Hi Dan, I won’t promise anything at this stage, the ‘Hennessy’ will get at least 1h+ of my time, as will the 2m4f handicap hurdle, esp if any trends I can use. So, just a question of time, but will see what I can do! Reminder me nearer the time 🙂

    1. End of the month Ken, – well on Monday I suspect- would have been mid month but was away, always monthly as a minimum, last one was end Oct/early Nov, but very busy what with taking a week out and about to press the button on first ever external launch of members club etc.

      1. Thanks Josh. Your link above says updated to end of Sept. Don’t recall another one since. If you have, could you update the link. Thanks

        1. Yep I haven’t updated those, I discussed update for the ‘where should you start’ strategies at end oct/early Nov in section 4 for a couple of days running, but will pull everything up to speed asap.

  6. Today’s possibilities…..

    Ling’ 2.00…….Oxford Blu………9.8
    Ling’ 2.30….Somewhere To Be..8.6
    Sout’ 3.10….Mary Tolouse……..14.0
    Sedg’ 3.20….Mance Rayder…….5.0

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