Members Daily Post: 26/11/18 (complete)

Test x3, Section 1 (complete) , test zone

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack

2.Any Tips/Notes (Daily Tips/Festival Tips/other thoughts)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack

Ludlow

1.40 – Robinshill (micro dist) G1 10/3 UP

3.50 – Rasasee (m dist) 2/1

 

Musselburgh

12.45 – Fields of Glory (m age) 22/1 S2A UP/PU

3.00 –

Cap st Vincent (m class) w1 H1 I3 G3 11/8 S4 WON 11/8>6/5 

Civil Unrest (m runs) H3 I1 G1 4/1 S4 2nd 11/2 

 

Kempton

3.10 – Granard (m class) 14/1 S2 

3.40 – Desiremoi D’Authie (m class) 25/1 S2A 

 

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KEY

H1/H3= HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)

G1/G3 = Geegeez GoldSpeed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated

I1/I3 =  Inform Racing Speed Ratings – Top Rated or Top 3

14,30 = Geegeez Goldtrainer form’ indicators14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr3010+ runs last 30 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr

S1-S6 : S = ‘Strategy’ and refers to the ‘advised strategies’ in the link below. S1 = ‘Strategy 1’. Added on morning of racing along with the price. w1won last start.   w2won two starts ago (tracking as of 15th Feb 2018)

NEW! Welcome Video 2018/19>>>Watch HERE>>>

The Strategies: Where should you start? Some ideas HERE>>> 

‘Flat Strategies/results‘: Flat 2017 Read HERE>>>(updated to end Sept 2018)

‘Jumps Strategies/results’: Jumps 2017/18 Read HERE>>>(updated to end Sept 2018)

Research Articles: (TTP reports/Test Zone/Monthly Articles/Big Meetings Notes) READ HERE>>>

VIDEOS: Members Repository: HERE>>> . All Public (non members only) Videos HERE>>>

IMPORTANT: More Welcome Info  HERE>>> (please read) (inc must watch videos :)) 

Contact: email:  – info@racingtoprofit.co.uk  … or failing that… racingtoprofit@gmail.com 

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2.Any Tips/Notes (Daily Tips/Festival Tips/other thoughts)

Daily Tips(2017 Sept-Dec: 31/176, +110.75) (2018: 28/318,100p, -18.2) (1 point win /1 pt EW bets) Big Race/Festival Tips (2018: +152)

Daily Tips

None today, nothing at bigger prices luring me in. Fields of Glory would be one of the more interesting S2A qualifiers of recent weeks, and it will be interesting to see how he goes. Far too many questions for tipping purposes to my eyes but that is a very very weak race- well, depends if his stablemate stays which is the question for him and makes his price short enough. Take him out and it becomes very open. This one was poor when last seen but may have needed it albeit 50+ days off suggests maybe a problem. He does get a visor here so doing something different and this trip is the furthest he’s gone over hurdles- whether he stays this far is inconclusive as yet. It could be he doesn’t but not impossible he takes to it. Anyway, he’s one of the more interesting S2As of recent times to my eyes, when many haven’t made much sense on paper to ‘subjective/form eyes’ and have been out the back of the tv.

 

TEST Best of the Stats Quals? (13/46,23p, +10.8 , all 1 point win) 

1.40 Lud – Vivaccio – 5/1 (gen) 11/2 (sky/Lad/WH) UP

2.35 Kemp – Tommy Silver – 7/2 2nd, poor jumping down far side cost him challenging, more galloping track required maybe.

3.00 Muss – Civil Unrest – 5/1 – 2nd, 8/1 forecast as mentioned below landed at least, for interest.

that’s all for the ‘shorties, best of the stats quals test’, 08.59, write ups to follow…

Vivaccio – well Nick has the value on the Twister horse and you can see the case for him. If he gets around he won’t be far away and maybe he did just need the run LTO, albeit beaten a mile but if he wasn’t fit, that would be why! Venetia’s is interesting here and I think he was down to run at Chepstow the other day when I nearly tipped him. That memory could be faulty but they clearly pulled him for whatever reason. He’s been lightly raced in recent years but if returned to his best form around here I think he’d destroy this lot from this mark, having rated much higher in the past. His only career wins to date have been over this CD off 115 and 125. His mark of 110 looks interesting and you’d think Venetia will find a race for him at some point this season. He ran some credible races last season and nearly all of them were much better than this one. Plenty were on soft+ and rarely for horses from this yard, i’m not sure he wants it that soft. They also ran him over 20f+ a few times but didn’t appear to relish those trips. I suspect he may stay further now and as such I hope they’re aggressive with him here and have him prominent. If he can get into a rhythm in 2nd/3rd he should be there at the end. He’s won on seasonal reappearance before and seems to go well fresh. Fitness won’t be a problem if Venetia wants him a1 on his first run of the year and he has raced up there before. Both his wins were also under Aidan and he’ll have been booked for the job, given I suspect she’d have put up Charlie D were it not for their decent record together. I thought he could be a point or two shorter in this.

Tommy Silver – he’s the classiest horse in this race and I thought well worth another go at this sort of distance. It isn’t the strongest of races and Harry C usually has them in the right place. He appears to have rightly judged than in chases, if the horse is able to settle etc, then being front rank/front 1/4 of any chase field really is the place to be. They will go a stride slower over this trip/this class I think which should enable him to go his pace, hopefully fairly prominent. I don’t like hold up chasers at the best of times, but certainly not around this track, nor indeed Ludlow or Muss. He’s still unexposed as a handicap chaser, has a decent mark against old form, and the yard are red hot. It could be he doesn’t stay but my hope/expectation is that he improves now for this trip, having run with credit to a point over 16f at Aintree when last seen. The Morrison horse could be a danger but she is usually held up and will need some luck/a fine round of jumping, which she may deliver. Roll The Dough is solid but is open to attack from classier rivals and i’d like to think one of the top two would be too good but if they falter he may pick up the pieces. I suspect Dickie could have ridden at any of today’s meetings given the trainers with runners on the cards, and interesting he’s at Kempton for only two rides.

Civil Unrest – 5s just lured me in here as I thought that was a tad insulting and he should be second fav, around 7/2 or so, based on his form/recent runs. He is 12 now and i’m asking him to do something different – well with the claims this would be a win from 1lb higher than he does so before, but he’s fit and running well. I also thought he’d get an easy lead here and he could just keep galloping. Hopefully he jumps well and plays catch me if you can. I wasn’t sure why the Dalgleish horse would overturn that Kelso run but maybe he needed it and his new trainer could still be working him out. But he is now 0/6,0p over fences and I thought his price and the selections were the wrong way round. But he’s young and we haven’t seen the best of him yet. That leaves Cap St Vincent who looked about the right price. He won an atrocious race LTO for me, having had a look at it, and he benefited from a few going too hard and falling in a hole. His jockey thought he’d be better over further and he was held up there. Maybe they will be more aggressive with him and track Civil Unrest, if he has the pace to do so. But this will ask a question of him as he will have to close CU at some point hopefully, doing so while jumping at speed. It could be he hacks up again and I have backed the forecast (could be reverse) at 8/1 for interest, with him and CU. If both stay on their feet i’d have thought they would be the ones battling it out, but time will tell whether i’ve read that correctly!

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I thought those three looked of most interest at the odds. Quri was annoying yesterday- I looked at her but judged 11/4 was about right/short enough- she’d yet to win, was making handicap debut and stepping up to 3m or so – those factors were a positive at her eventual SP of 15/2, but not at 11/4 in my judgement. A shame she wasn’t that price in the morning, or even 4s+, as we’d have been celebrating a winner but I know in my own head I read the race well enough. Anyway, it just goes to show that sometimes the market doesn’t have a clue, and Lacey’s (esp in his silks) can’t be the biggest of gambling yards as you’d have thought if they were her price would have kept shorter. They must have known she’d stay and was thrown in. 

 

3.Micro System Test Zone

D McCain (14/1< guide)

3.50 Lud – Rockalzaro 13/2 2nd 7/1

V Williams/November (16/1< guide)

1.40 Lud – Vivaccio 7/1 UP

 

Jumps Fact Sheet 2018/19 

Trainers to Follow

12.45 Muss – Triangle Rock 9/1 2nd

1.55 Muss – Born For War 5/2 WON 11/4 

3.00 Muss – Monsieur Co 9/2 UP

3.30 Muss – Glorious Lady 11/8 WON 11/8>13/2! 

Jockeys/Chasers

2.35 Kemp – Tommy Silver 7/2 2nd

LTO Winning Hurdlers Starting Points(late, 09.33, missed first time)

3.40 Kemp- Fairway Freddy  WON 6/4>13/8 

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Handicap Chase System Starting Points (10/1< best)

3.00 Muss – Cap St Vincent 11/8 WON 11/8>6/5 

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

24 Responses

  1. Mixed feelings today given it was nice to get a winner but a little gutted at missing out of Peterborough but life goes on.

    Robinshill Ludlow 13:40 1.5pt win-9/2-This looks like a horrible race. The favourite is a much worse horse over fences than he was over hurdles. Tornado in Milan prefers softer and is now 12. Poker School hasn’t won for almost 2 years and is still rated above his last winning mark and Vivaccio hasn’t for over 4 years although at least the mark on down is sliding. Finally I don’t think Atlantic Storm is good enough and his trainer hasn’t had a winner since June 2016. On the face of the selection is also out of form but I think there are excuses for his last 4 runs. He didn’t stay 2m5f and is not good enough for Grade 1 or even Grade 3 chases and last time he was making his seasonal re-appearance off a 180 day break. Five starts ago he won this race off 2lbs lower with the same jockey on board. He is 2/3 at the track with the jockey on. (would have been 3/3 if not for falling at the last when an almost certain winner) He should be favourite for this and money has already started coming.

  2. U.S. Racing Tip – Sunday evening, 10.30 UK time, Del Mar race 5, Sought More Pep, 1 point win, 11/2 at present.

    Good luck.

  3. RECENT TIPS
    Daily
    K 2.35 – Workbench on 4th run @ 16
    Festival
    L1.40 – Sternrubin on 3rd run @ 9/4
    L 3.20 – Prime Venture on 4th run @ 9/2
    GL

    1. w/e 25/11 figs

      Daily runners = 21
      Winners = 2 @ bog 7, 14, @ sp 9/2, 5
      p/l @ bog + 2
      p/l @ sp – 9.5
      There were 3 / 3 plcs @ bog 16, 16, 20, @ sp 16, 16, 20

      Festival runners = 10
      Winners = 1 @ bog 10/3, @ sp 10/3
      p/l @ bog – 5.7
      p/l @ sp – 5.7
      There were 2 / 2 plcs @ bog 10, 50, @ sp 10, 20

      3m+ runners = 11
      Winners = 1 @ bog 10/3, @ sp 10/3
      p/l @ bog – 6.7
      p/l @ sp – 6.7
      there were / plcs @ bog , @ sp

      PLACES @ 10’s+ DO NOT INCLUDE WINS

  4. Morning,

    Two for today, waiting for the rain to come and then i think things will calm down.

    WALTZ DARLING 20/1 gen 1/2 pt E/W
    CULLY MAC 16/1 pp 1/2 pt E/W

    Results up to date will follow after taking a week off.

  5. 15:40 Kempton – Fairway Freddy

    Josh, this is in my HRB qualifiers as the quick returning winners angle you borrowed for your jumps fact sheet. Can’t see it above 🙂

    1. Ah yes, neither can I see it above! 🙂 But there he is, sat in one of my HRB accounts, no idea how I miss these at times! cheers.

      1. Given the amount of systems you must track I can imagine it’s easy to miss the odd one! Another nice winner from that though to keep it ticking along 🙂

    2. thats a ” defo ” one more for my hrb system as well ( especially between 1-4 days 🙂
      ) …… thanks chris m … already noted one of your other systems a few weeks ago … really appreciate you enlightening us to them 🙂 .. keep up the good work .

      gl/gb

  6. Tim Vaughan in the north – Musselburgh.

    12.45 Eric The Third and Fields Of Glory.

    3.00 Cap St Vincent.

  7. just about squeezing out an e/w patent today on :

    13.05 ludlow : baron du plessis
    13.40 ludlow : poker school
    2.35 kempton : roll the dough

    gl/gb

  8. Josh,
    Can I ask?
    When you do your research on HRB,how many years do you go back?
    I research back four years but I’ve had conflicting advice that I ought to be going back five years and then been told three years is far enough.
    Any thoughts please.
    Andy

    1. Hi Andy,
      I wouldn’t say there is a set rule… with trainer angles you’ll never have enough statistical data really to be happy as such- but we are dealing with behaviour and that’s why the logic/patterns etc are even more important. I was a tad unsure which I suppose is why I added in the new section to TTP this year, with 5 years for general stats as well as the 3 years data as usual.
      I’m comfortable with three for trainers – because their techniques can change, their owners, jockeys and agents they use say, and all of that can impact on how well they do.
      Outside of trainers, then who knows, the bigger data set the better I suppose, depends what you are researching. For big race trends say, i’m happy with 10 years, and stick to that, and if I judge there not to be enough of a stats pool i’ll be cautious.
      I don’t think there’s a right or wrong answer, with trainer angles you’ve just got to be confident to a degree that you’ve tapped into a habit/approach that may be repeated. In part that’s why I introduced ratings pointers also, that ‘fusion’ which in theory may give more confidence to some approaches long term and of course they’re based on the horse etc generally.
      Josh

      1. Cheers Josh,
        My research is trainer based,creatures of habit.
        I’ll try three years and see if my results improve.
        Andy

  9. Jumps Fact Sheet 2018/19

    Today enjoyed its fourth big drifting winner in the last week with Glorious Lady following on from Quri, Favorito Bucks and Radical Archie. This is becoming Mazuresque in its profitablilty

    1. Yes, and I do wish they were those prices in the morning haha, as i’ve had tipped three of them for sure, not 100% on Radical A, but other three. It could be that the fact sheet ends up working systematically, i’ll have updated results come end of this month and we shall see, and which angles etc. Would be nice if it worked as a group albeit a lot of bets, but there to use as you see fit!
      Josh

    2. Colin seemed to think it wasn’t overly profitable to SP which I was surprised at given the number of witness it seems to have found recently.

      Do you have anything recorded for BOG results? Do you back both A and B? Do you use the 10/1 and under only as suggested in the pack.

      I decided to abandon it for this year but looking to pick it up next year if it’s a system that finds winners

      1. you’re talking about TTS aren’t you? Danegold was talking about the fact sheet in my section 3 above 🙂 I’ve no idea on TTS, I haven’t been following it.

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