Members Daily Post: 25/11/18 (complete)

Section 1 (complete), test zone

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack

2.Any Tips/Notes (Daily Tips/Festival Tips/other thoughts)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack

Exeter

12.50 –

Slaying The Dragon (hncp h) I1 8/1 S5 (IF 11.00+ BFSP)

Gonnabegood (micro TJC/class/runs) w1 30 H1 4/1 

1.50 –

Royal Palladium (hncp chase) 4/1 

Only Gorgeous (m class) I3 G3 11/2 S1+S5 (IF 11.00+ BFSP)

2.50 – 

Dark Invader (all hncps) w1 I3 9/1 S5 (IF 11.00+ BFSP)

Un Prophete (hncp chas3+ m class) w2 G3 8/1 S1 (IF 11.00+ BFSP)

3.50 – 

Peterborough (all hncps + hncp h) I3 12/1 S2 S5 

Mutanaqel (m dist) 8/1 

 

Uttoxeter

1.10 – Frankie Rapper (hncp h 5 yrs + m TJC) ES+ H3 I3 G1  7/2 S3A# S4 

2.10 – Indirocco (m TJC) ES+ H3 G3 2/1 S3A# 

2.40 –

Notwhatiam (m TJC/age) w2 ES+ H3 6/4 S3A 

Silva Eclipse (m runs) 7/1 

3.10 – On Ragland Road (hncp c) 14/1 S2

3.40 – White Lilac (m class) 25/1 S2A

 

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KEY

H1/H3= HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)

G1/G3 = Geegeez GoldSpeed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated

I1/I3 =  Inform Racing Speed Ratings – Top Rated or Top 3

14,30 = Geegeez Goldtrainer form’ indicators14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr3010+ runs last 30 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr

S1-S6 : S = ‘Strategy’ and refers to the ‘advised strategies’ in the link below. S1 = ‘Strategy 1’. Added on morning of racing along with the price. w1won last start.   w2won two starts ago (tracking as of 15th Feb 2018)

NEW! Welcome Video 2018/19>>>Watch HERE>>>

The Strategies: Where should you start? Some ideas HERE>>> 

‘Flat Strategies/results‘: Flat 2017 Read HERE>>>(updated to end Sept 2018)

‘Jumps Strategies/results’: Jumps 2017/18 Read HERE>>>(updated to end Sept 2018)

Research Articles: (TTP reports/Test Zone/Monthly Articles/Big Meetings Notes) READ HERE>>>

VIDEOS: Members Repository: HERE>>> . All Public (non members only) Videos HERE>>>

IMPORTANT: More Welcome Info  HERE>>> (please read) (inc must watch videos :)) 

Contact: email:  – info@racingtoprofit.co.uk  … or failing that… racingtoprofit@gmail.com 

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2.Any Tips/Notes (Daily Tips/Festival Tips/other thoughts)

Daily Tips(2017 Sept-Dec: 31/176, +110.75) (2018: 28/318,100p, -18.2) (1 point win /1 pt EW bets) Big Race/Festival Tips (2018: +152)

Daily Tips

None today.

 

TEST Best of the Stats Quals? (13/43,21p, +13.8 , all 1 point win) (gen 7/1 or shorter)

None today.

Saturday was frustrating, two falls from horses who usually jump well enough. Apparently those Haydock fences were stiffer than expected, more like the ‘old days’ and some just didn’t handle them/were clipping the tops/propping on landing etc. No excuses though and it seemed to be the making for some of them, given that’s the best Vintage C has ever jumped and probably the stiffest fences it would appear. And Bristol D M just loves Haydock, what a performance of jumping and galloping. I appeared to pick all the wrong ‘shorties’ for the test but that’s going to happen so I have to deal with it. The content (section 1/3) found 3 decent winners under 8s on morning odds and sadly I wasn’t near any of them, but at least one of them won for S3A# so it wasn’t all doom and gloom! 

 

3.Micro System Test Zone

V Williams/November (16/1< guide)

1.50 Exet – Royal Palladium 4/1 

2.50 Exet – Un Prophete 8/1 

Paddy Brennan (14/1< guide) 

1.50 Exet – Bells N Banjos 13/2 

Tom Lacey 

3.40 Uttox – Quri 11/4 

 

Jumps Fact Sheet 2018/19 

Trainers to Follow

3.40 Uttox – Quri 11/4 

Jockeys/Chasers

1.50 Exet – Abbreviate 10/1 

1.50 Exet – Looks Like Power (16/1<) 15/2 

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Handicap Chase System Starting Points (10/1< best) 

2.50 Exet – Night of Sin 4/1 / Watcombe Heights 4/1 

3.10 Uttox – Mortens Leam 13/2 

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

*

 

 

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

52 Responses

  1. Hi Josh
    Saw your tweet today via my computer
    Might Bite either has a problem,nowhere near race fit or the Gold Cup has absolutely bottomed him out.
    My view for what it is worth.
    Nowhere near fit unable to buy into this one when there is a million pound bonus at stake,feel that Nicky Henderson would have him fit for today.
    Gold Cup bottomed him out can buy into this one.
    Has a problem for me the problem are the Haydock fences,since they have been rebuilt for this season and they are to high and to stiff,Nicky Henderson went out onto the course to inspect them prior to the race and i wonder if he regrets not pulling Mighty Bite out of the race.
    Not heard of any fatalities today however when the lesser class of horse tries jumping these fences then Haydock can have problems.
    Colin.

    1. Hi Colin, yep appears the professional agreement is they were too steep/stiff and horses generally are not trained for those. Some like the winner and Vintage Clouds seemed to relish them but they certainly caught out two of my shorty test fancies. It appeared that if you didn’t wing them and see a stride you were in trouble as they were too big to get in close to and pop over without catching top/landing too steep etc. Maybe MB was just put off by them having not seen anything like them before! Maybe it was just a mental/confidence issue as it was too bad to be true. But I wouldn’t be surprised if his spring campaign has left a longer term mark but hopefully not.

  2. With him winning at Aintree after the Gold Cup I’d say it didn’t bottom him out….
    The plot thickens!!!

    1. Yea bottoming out horses is a tricky one and no exact science. He was in a different training cycle then and it’s not impossible that the Aintree run on top of his Chelt efforts have combined to catch up with him. That Gold cup was brutal but take your point about Aintree run. Who knows. Hopefully he gets back to his best as seemingly no excuse for me for that, unless he was just intimidated by the fences.

      1. Henderson horses sometimes have theses runs. Look at the great Sprinter Sacre and how he came back. I think it is just a blip for ‘Bez’ AKA Might Bite.

  3. today’s selections.
    Exeter 12-50 Slaying The Dragon 9-1 1/2 pt ew sky 5 places
    Uttoxeter 1-10 Pershing Missile 11-2 1/2 pt ew
    i did look at Frankie Ballou 10-1 in the 3-10 but feel he needs the ground a bit softer so i’ll look at the going again nearer the off in case of any significant rain.

  4. Saturday’s results…..
    Ling’ 2.00…No Nonsense…….. 11.0 Lose @ 9.69
    Ling’ 2.35…Princely…………… 11.0 Lose @ 13.5
    Wolv’ 8.15..Congress Place….. 11.0 Lose @ 14.2

  5. just been looking at the Navan 2-30, Spider Web 8-1 looked interesting after winning the Munster National over this distance and same going lto but the runner up in that race Na Trachtalai Abu 22-1 is 5lb better off for 3/4 l defeat and might be worth a small ew at the price.

  6. COLINS BETS
    November so far proved a difficult month so far SP – 2 BOG + 6 points
    ELITE BETS
    SP – 3.8 BOG + 1/2 point

    Counting today 6 betting days of November left plenty of time to see black in both SP and BOG,last November was a bad month last year,for Colins bets only.

  7. Traf69
    Will you do an update on the profit/loss of Trainer Track Stats for i am sure that you have an healthy profit when they are recorded as per rules of 10/1 or less.
    Not a fan of priced sensitive for you do really need to have access to every race about 10 minutes before the off which is difficult for many with job commitments etc,another area one horse is priced at 14/1 and one of the fancied horses becomes a N/R so the 14/1 odds go to 10/1 and becomes a bet,so for me it will be a false bet for on the ratings it should not win.
    Cheers
    Colin

    1. Hi Colin,

      I’ll ask Matt if there are any plans to update the results or not, but I haven’t been keeping tally to be honest.

      Chris

    2. If we are talking about the trainer track stats pack that Matt from Geegeez produced it was losing quite a few points in the first six weeks. I then gave up following it. Perhaps it has picked up recently?

      1. put my BFEXSP returns up the other day
        Oct – 2points
        Nov + 9.73 points
        Today there are 4 potential bets and they all are on the border line of 10/1 last time i looked,it could well improve with some better quality runners coming out from December onwards so will see how it goes in December but once again grey areas when price sensitive.

      2. This may help Colin, from my figs and I threw a few stakes away taking +10 odds on ones I thought had a good chance in the first week or two.
        1st best of TTS 4/10, profit to 18/11+ 9.5 @ bog after a rocky start. No winners shortened from 10+ early odds.
        1st bet of Directors Cut 29/9, profit to 18/11 + 15 @ bog. No winners shortened from +10 early odds.
        Taking early odds without BOG would give + 7.875 for TTS and + 12.5 for DC and both would be less if waiting for the off.
        Mike

        1. Thanks Mike will scrub the 4 potential bets today for home life reasons son popping in to see me for a couple of hours before going back to Uni so cannot justify watching the computer to check prices whilst he his here.
          Will probably only look at the clear cut priced bets in future.
          Cheers
          Colin

          1. You could consider a bot to place a bet automatically if certain price conditions are met. I bought a “betsender” licence for a one-off fee of about £100. There are possibly better options out there but it would certainly do that job very well. You can check it out at betsender.com

          2. Cheers Francis total clueless on technical areas and TTS is a one off,do not know where my son gets his from for just left and he has a video interview with Cisco tomorrow for their computer department,he also has one with BT,Virgin and more so he does all my computer issues,its astounds me when he his in Nottingham and he takes over my computer to sort out any issues.
            A job with Cisco is his dream job.
            Colin.

          3. Yea it wouldn’t be worth the outlay if you didn’t have any other uses for it. Fingers crossed for your son, hope he gets the job he wants.

  8. Cracking Destiny Exeter 12:50 1pt e/w 8/1
    Three Star General Exeter 13:20 1pt e/w 12/1
    Asylo Uttoxeter 13:10 1pt e/w 13/2
    Landin Uttoxeter 14:40 1pt e/w 28/1
    On Raglan Road Uttoxeter 15:10 1pt e/w 14/1

  9. RECENT TIPS
    Daily
    U 1.10 – Quiz Master on 3rd run @ 4
    Festival
    N 2.30 – GrandPartner on 7th run @ 50
    3m+
    E 1.50 – Royal Palladium on 3rd run @ 4
    U 2.10 – Capard King on 5th run @ 6
    N 2.30 – Rogue Angel on 5th run @ 16
    …………Arkwrisht on 6th run @ 14
    …………Timiyan an 2nd run @ 25
    GL
    These odds ar efrom 9.30 ish but lost connection til now.
    Mike

  10. Hi Folks, like the look of poormans hill in the troytown. Looks to have a progressive profile.
    D. Williams travels to Uttoxeter with Haventthefroggiest. Find that intersesting.
    Hill fort in the 12.50 Exeter looks overpriced.

    Good luck

    1. Jarrod
      Intrigued to know your reasoning how you can fancy Dai’s runner Haventthefroggiest at 200/1.
      D.Williams travels to Uttoxeter which is not to far from where he trains in Swindon so not exactly a long distance traveller.
      Sam Twiston Davies been riding a few of Dai’s lately and he has ridden a winner for him,however Sam is riding one for J scott and Sam is now freelance and he chose not to ride Dai’s,hope Haventthefroggiest runs well for you and especially for Dai.
      Colin

  11. Jesus after the bad last jump in the first race when looking like the winner I thought the loose horse was going to screw us over but nice winner there.

    1. great stuff Nick .. some great advice once again … again it’s just nice when you pinpoint one of my existing fancies .. i then double stake accordingly (asylo 🙂 )
      gl/gb

  12. Is it just me or are Venus’ horses falling a lot so far this season? I’ve backed a few the last couple of week and I’ve noticed a lot have fallen. Always good to see them get up off the floor and dart off again but think I’ll hold off on backing hers for the time being.

  13. p.o.i. 🙂
    Totals are in for my week saturday to saturday PROFIT/LOSS
    Bets Wins Win% P/L (SP) Places Place% BF Places BF Place% P/L (BFSP)
    62 21 33.87 gbp 39.0 30 48.39% 30 48.39% gbp 57.743
    gl/gb
    should give other people hope 🙂
    thanks for your help on here once again 🙂

    1. stuff it .. those figures were all neat and in line when they left me !!
      i am not copy and pasting anymore 🙂
      gl/gb

  14. Would someone like the job of updating section 1 results every day. Its nice to be able to do a scroll through to see whats happened without checking all the race results individually 🙂

  15. Nothing much of interest today for me. Rain is forecasted for tomorrow so I’m hoping that the softer conditions may bring some fresh horses out.

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