Below is a test tipping section from the members’ post…essentially bar Big Races/festival races with are over +200 points for 2018 (inc the free tips of which all the profits have really come from the big C2/G3 marathon chases) my daily tipping has been a bit crap all year. In part I have a self imposed price point where i’ve always been a bit naff with anything under 8/1. So, I thought i’d test myself and use all my stats qualifiers from my members posts, which find plenty of winners, as starting points and to be less precious on ‘price’. I’m still looking for value, or trying too, but am happy to look towards the top of the market. I’d take +16.5 points every 36 bets, but we shall see if I can keep it up.
Anyway, those three horses below hit one or more of my stats and that was the starting point, before attacking them with my subjective ‘form/analytical’ eyes…
TEST Best of the Stats Quals? (12/36,18p, +16.5 , all 1 point win) (gen 7/1 or shorter)
1.50 Catt – The Paddy Pie – 10/3 (gen)
2.25 Catt – One Night In Milan – 5/2 (gen)
3.15 Ascot – Vice Et Vertu – 7/1 (gen)
that’s the lot, 09.31 write ups…
The Paddy Pie…well I think this one or Cloth Cap (maybe worth a saver) win this on form/fitness/profiles as they are the two most interesting/most open to progress. I’m a bit on the fence as to whether this one will stay this trip and in fairness Jonjo’s looks like the more thorougher stayer BUT, he could just have been beaten by the better horse LTO, the front two miles clear, with the winner running an ok 3rd in the Badger Ales on his next start. This one will get better with racing and Danny will have him more prominent than Cloth Cap I think and that track position may help. This is probably one of the easier 24/25f tracks and if he’s going to get home, he shouldn’t have an excuse here. He’s consistent and generally jumps well. He was also sold after his last run to John Wade, having been owned by the trainer, and he’s a good judge. No doubt Sue will want to reward such support with immediate success. Smith+Cook are 5/9,7p in handicap chases at the track in the last 2 years and it would be a decent enough winner for S3A# which has had a cracking year so far as per notes below. A 1-2 for the two mentioned, with Pickamix in there pitching somewhere, wouldn’t surprise me.
One Night In Milan… I fancied him LTO when just clipping the top 4 out and failing to get the landing gear down. As falls go it was very soft so no surprise to see him back out quickly. He’s bred to relish this new trip, Hughes takes over, he’s still in form and in the ‘could be anything’ category as a handicapper. I don’t think he’s stopped improving yet and I thought he may make 5/2 look a decent price come 2.30. Only one way to find out!
Vice Et Vertu…7s seemed a couple of points too big here to my eyes. He has a very good record fresh and i’d be shocked if he wasn’t fit enough to run his race here. Whether that will be good enough time will tell but he knows how to win, gets on well with Paddy and generally jumps/stays well. He has fewer questions to answer than many in here in what looks a tight enough handicap. It is an interesting race and maybe it will be too hot for him but it’s a decent pot and if he’s to nab one of these it could be at this time of year. He can be moody, not usually when Paddy is on, so fingers crossed he can get a tune out of him again.
I stared at Sir Egbert for an age, but just talked myself out of him at 5s…it is his chase debut, he used to be keen enough over hurdles and won at Taunton when having a strong enough pace to settle behind, and he now steps up in trip – which he may relish. It’s his first run of the year, the hood is off, and there are some interesting rivals. Maybe 5s will look a decent price come the finish and Lacey is 5/13,7p in all novice handicap chases since the start of 2017. Maybe I have him wrong but just a few too many niggles at the price I thought. I was happy to leave everything else under 8s on this page for test tipping purposes but no doubt i’ll be wrong about the odd one!