Members Daily Post: 23/11/18 (complete)

Test x3, Section 1 (complete), test zone , Elite Squad+ updates,

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack

2.Any Tips/Notes (Daily Tips/Festival Tips/other thoughts)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc

*

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack

Catterick

1.50 – 

Straidnahanna (hncp chase + micro class) w2 ES+ 6/1 S3A UP

Same Circus (hncp c + m age) ES+ G3 7/1 S3A S1 UP

The Paddy Pie (hncp c + m TJC/class) ES+ H3 I3 G1 7/2 S3A# S4 3rd 

 

Ffos Las

12.35 – Magical Man (m dist) 14/1 S2 UP

2.15 – Gone Platinum (nov hncps) G1 (only 2 with ratings) 9/1 S1 UP 14/1 

2.50 – Padge (hncp h) G3 14/1 S1 S2 UP

3.25 – No Rematch (NHF) 16/1 S2A 2nd 16/1>12/1 

 

Ascot

2.40 – 

Casse Tete (m TJC) I1 12/1 S2 S5 UR

Ridgeway Flyer (m class/dist) G3 13/2 UP

3.15 – Favorito Bucks (m class) I3 6/1  S5 (IF 11.00+ BFSP)  WON 6/1> 12/1 

3.50 – 

Jollys Cracked It (all hncps) 4/1 WON 4/1>7/1 

Distingo (m TJC) H3 6/1 3rd 7/1 

 

*

KEY

H1/H3= HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)

G1/G3 = Geegeez GoldSpeed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated

I1/I3 =  Inform Racing Speed Ratings – Top Rated or Top 3

14,30 = Geegeez Goldtrainer form’ indicators14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr3010+ runs last 30 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr

S1-S6 : S = ‘Strategy’ and refers to the ‘advised strategies’ in the link below. S1 = ‘Strategy 1’. Added on morning of racing along with the price. w1won last start.   w2won two starts ago (tracking as of 15th Feb 2018)

NEW! Welcome Video 2018/19>>>Watch HERE>>>

The Strategies: Where should you start? Some ideas HERE>>> 

‘Flat Strategies/results‘: Flat 2017 Read HERE>>>(updated to end Sept 2018)

‘Jumps Strategies/results’: Jumps 2017/18 Read HERE>>>(updated to end Sept 2018)

Research Articles: (TTP reports/Test Zone/Monthly Articles/Big Meetings Notes) READ HERE>>>

VIDEOS: Members Repository: HERE>>> . All Public (non members only) Videos HERE>>>

IMPORTANT: More Welcome Info  HERE>>> (please read) (inc must watch videos :)) 

Contact: email:  – info@racingtoprofit.co.uk  … or failing that… racingtoprofit@gmail.com 

*

 

2.Any Tips/Notes (Daily Tips/Festival Tips/other thoughts)

Daily Tips(2017 Sept-Dec: 31/176, +110.75) (2018: 28/318,100p, -18.2) (1 point win /1 pt EW bets) Festival Tips (2018: +152)

Daily Tips

NONE… nothing 8/1+ that caught my eye. I looked at Distingo who’s drifted out to 8s, which may be a shade overpriced but he didn’t tick enough of my tipping boxes and I need to be stricter with myself on that front. I don’t know what the level of his form amounts to and i’m not sure he’s the most straightforward under pressure but he’s fit, in form, and this stiff finish may suit him. Looks a tricky race mind, and the market is hinting that Harry Fry may have Jolly’s Cracked it a1 for this, and he won’t be far away if he’s fit, but short enough given 700+ days off, and a few other interesting ones, so i’ll leave it. You wouldn’t fall off your seat if Padge won for S1, but there wasn’t enough there to go on to tip him as unless knowing the thoughts of connections you’re guessing a fair bit. Given how lightly raced he is for his age, you’d think connections wouldn’t want to waste any opportunity to run him at the track, so we shall see. The market may guide. Three ‘shorties’ below for the test…

 

*

TEST Best of the Stats Quals? (13/39,21p, +17.8 , all 1 point win) (gen 7/1 or shorter) 

1.50 Catt – The Paddy Pie – 10/3 (gen) 3rd

2.25 Catt – One Night In Milan – 5/2 (gen) WON 10/3 

3.15 Ascot – Vice Et Vertu – 7/1 (gen) 2nd 8/1

that’s the lot, 09.31 write ups…

The Paddy Pie…well I think this one or Cloth Cap (maybe worth a saver) win this on form/fitness/profiles as they are the two most interesting/most open to progress. I’m a bit on the fence as to whether this one will stay this trip and in fairness Jonjo’s looks like the more thorougher stayer BUT, he could just have been beaten by the better horse LTO, the front two miles clear, with the winner running an ok 3rd in the Badger Ales on his next start. This one will get better with racing and Danny will have him more prominent than Cloth Cap I think and that track position may help. This is probably one of the easier 24/25f tracks and if he’s going to get home, he shouldn’t have an excuse here. He’s consistent and generally jumps well. He was also sold after his last run to John Wade, having been owned by the trainer, and he’s a good judge. No doubt Sue will want to reward such support with immediate success. Smith+Cook are 5/9,7p in handicap chases at the track in the last 2 years and it would be a decent enough winner for S3A# which has had a cracking year so far as per notes below. A 1-2 for the two mentioned, with Pickamix in there pitching somewhere, wouldn’t surprise me.

One Night In Milan… I fancied him LTO when just clipping the top 4 out and failing to get the landing gear down. As falls go it was very soft so no surprise to see him back out quickly. He’s bred to relish this new trip, Hughes takes over, he’s still in form and in the ‘could be anything’ category as a handicapper. I don’t think he’s stopped improving yet and I thought he may make 5/2 look a decent price come 2.30. Only one way to find out!

Vice Et Vertu…7s seemed a couple of points too big here to my eyes. He has a very good record fresh and i’d be shocked if he wasn’t fit enough to run his race here. Whether that will be good enough time will tell but he knows how to win, gets on well with Paddy and generally jumps/stays well. He has fewer questions to answer than many in here in what looks a tight enough handicap. It is an interesting race and maybe it will be too hot for him but it’s a decent pot and if he’s to nab one of these it could be at this time of year. He can be moody, not usually when Paddy is on, so fingers crossed he can get a tune out of him again.

I stared at Sir Egbert for an age, but just talked myself out of him at 5s…it is his chase debut, he used to be keen enough over hurdles and won at Taunton when having a strong enough pace to settle behind, and he now steps up in trip – which he may relish. It’s his first run of the year, the hood is off, and there are some interesting rivals. Maybe 5s will look a decent price come the finish and Lacey is 5/13,7p in all novice handicap chases since the start of 2017. Maybe I have him wrong but just a few too many niggles at the price I thought. I was happy to leave everything else under 8s on this page for test tipping purposes but no doubt i’ll be wrong about the odd one!

 

3.Micro System Test Zone

Paddy Brennan (14/1< guide)

2.05 Ascot – Bennys Bridge 14/1

3.15 Ascot – Vice Et Vertu 6/1 2nd

 

Jumps Fact Sheet 2018/19 

Trainers to Follow 

1.20 Catt – Valkenburg (11/1< guide) 6/1 UP

2.25 Catt – One Night In Milan (11/1< guide) 5/2 WON 10/3 

3.35 Catt – Nickelsonthedime (11/1< guide) 10/11

2.15 Ffos L – Sir Egbert 9/2 2nd 5/1

Jockeys/Chasers

2.40 Ascot – Ridgeway Flyer 13/2 UP

2.40 Ascot – More Bucks (9/1< best) 11/1 UP

3.15 Ascot – Favorito Bucks 6/1 WON 6/1>12/1

3.15 Ascot – Minella Daddy (9/1< best) 4/1 UP

12.45 Catt – Super Charge (10/1<) 16/1 UP

*

Handicap Chase System Starting Points (10/1< best)

12.35 Ffos Las – Strong Resemblance 15/8 2nd

*

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

 The Elite Squad+ 

Just a quick chat on these. I’ll update the results come the end of the month, esp the ‘Where should you start’ link in the Key. S1 had a much needed winner recently, S2A has taken a bit of a battering but has done better EW, while w1 after a decent start is trying to give plenty of points back. I raised some caution at the time with w1/w2, simply given that the success at the time was based on summer jumps, and the winter may reveal more. Logically I think it will be fine and with S1/S2A, those losing runs are nothing out of the ordinary and have been seen before, and all are in line with the winning win SRs etc. But as always the emphasis is on starting small, having big enough banks to cope and building up over time.

Anyway, a quick touch on the Elite Squad+ … that’s any Jumps qualifier in Section 1 that has a ES+ next to their name, indicating the stat they qualified against from my report had at least 10 winners at a win SR of 25% in the study period. Those with such a symbol are also knowns as S3A . As with the three above in the 1.50 Catt, you don’t need to wait until the morning for me to add an S3A next to them, the ES+ is all you need for that one. 

In recent days they’ve gone through the +50 point mark for the year and now stand at, as of 20th: 212 bets / 48 wins / 68p / +57.11 points (to 1 point win bets)

Now, ES+ double/treble rated… (so ES+, plus 2 or 3 red symbols), also known as S3A# (The Paddy Pie is an example from the 1.50) are a subset of the above and are on…

119 bets / 38 wins / 54 p / +61.44 points

Both appear to be ticking along just fine as stand alone systems and I suppose unsurprisingly those with 2 or 3 ratings pointers (giving some context to the horse, along with my trainer stat) are doing much better, esp win SR and ROI.

Anyway, that info is presented to use/ignore/question as you please 🙂 From the new year I may start recording them separately. As it stands now the S3A results above include the S3A# results also.

*

66/1 winner? Well done if you backed the 66/1 (85.00 BFSP) winner in the Test Zone for A Dunn. Would appear a few of you did. Sadly I didn’t have a penny on! (urgh, horrid, and I did stare at him for a time. He’s now #1 on my missed winners pile! But you can only smile…) I failed to track his price and thought 22s in the morning was short enough given his profile. The hindsight bet is always the most obvious of course, but on reflection some sort of case could be made, esp 66s. All the headgear was stripped off which was a ‘way in’ or maybe a reason for an improvement, he’d won a novice hurdle, placed in a handicap hurdle and preferred decent ground. That was only his 9th hurdle run. Probably more importantly you could pick big holes in the rest and provide valid reasons for why none of them may run up to their marks- a few were mudlarks/had hard races recently, some may have needed the run, or also looked out of form. The race was much weaker than I initially gave it credit for albeit the selection still required some leap of faith. The trainer was 0/33,3p in the last month or so which I noted at the time and that swayed me at 22s I think. Never mind. Always something to learn and the day I start wading into those with my ‘form eyes’ will be a fun day indeed! 🙂

 

 

Share on facebook
Facebook
Share on twitter
Twitter
Share on pinterest
Pinterest
Share on linkedin
LinkedIn
Share on telegram
Telegram

Post Comments

Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

33 Responses

  1. U.S.Racing Tips – Thursday evening.
    Del mar race 8, 10.30 UK time, Oleksandra, 11/2 now, 2 points win.

    Good luck.

    1. The selection was a loser. From a high of 50+ points on the American racing we have slipped to +35.5 points. I agreed with the guy in Canada who I work with on these selections was that if we slipped to + 30 points we would bank that profit and call it a day. We are getting close to that mark and so it is up or quit from here.

  2. Thursday’s results…….
    MR 12.55…… Keep The River…… 7.4…..Lose @ 7.2
    Thur’ 1.35….. Los Alamos……….. 5.0…..Lose @ 4.1
    Winc’ 1.45….. Railroad Junkie….. 4.5…..Lose @ 5.5
    Newc’ 2.55…. Moonlight Spirit… 10.6…..Win @ 8.34
    Winc’ 3.20….. Ruperra Tom…….. 9.0…..2nd..@ 15.0
    MR 3.40…….. Ruthless Article….. 8.6….Lose..@ 5.9
    Newc’ 4.05…. Zorro’s Girl………… 8.6….Lose..@ 7.2
    Wolv’ 6.00….. Elenora Delight ….. 11.0…3rd…@15.8

    R/t 3W 22L +12.2

  3. Choral Music Kempton 19:45 1pt e/w 20/1

    I will have a second look in the morning since there are a few I like who are not quite a value price at the moment.

  4. RECENT TIPS
    Daily
    A 3.15 – Le Boizelo on 2nd run @ 11
    F 12.35 – Cougars Gold on 4th run @ 4
    ………….Colmers Hill on 4th run @ 14
    D 6.30 – Secret Wizard on 1st run @ 16
    Festival
    A 3.50 – Flying Tiger on 4th run @ 4
    3m+
    A 3.15 – Tintern Theatre on 4th run @ 10
    GL
    Mike

  5. COLINS BETS

    7.45 Kempton Rampant Lion BOG 9/1

    ELITE BETS

    No bet today winner at 4/1 and a 2nd from 2 bets yesterday

  6. Not tipping anything else today but have had a small trixie on Flying Angel (14:40A), Flying Tiger (15:50A) and Blistering Bob (20:15K)

      1. Reminded me of a Gordon Strachan anecdote. The interviewer said to him “hey Gordon, can I I have a quick word?”. He replied “yea, velocity”.

  7. Geegeez instant expert system.
    0/1 -2 pts
    3.50 Ascot Distingo
    I’m going to post level stakes 1 pt EW all selections at SP but in reality I bet anything from £5 to £30 ew depending on other factors. IE, I’m only having 10 ew as Distingo has only had one run in h’cap company..

  8. Today’s possibilities……..

    Ascot 1.50……Commanche Red…….. 8.6
    Ascot 2.40……Royal Village………….. 11.0
    Ascot 3.50……Distingo………………… 8.6

    Be back later with an AW update for this evening.

  9. Was favourito bucks an I3 or G3? Just spotted that it has the IF 11.00+ BFSP comment next to the name but also an I3.

    I didn’t back it as an S1 unfortunately!

      1. an I3 sadly/thankfully?! Yea hit the S5 drifter angle albeit that was a late update after post, as appear to have missed the S5 drifting notes, but that ones been on the naughty step for a very long time/not been performing that well! I’ve no idea how he’s drifted to 12s, shame he wasn’t that this morning, nearly tempted myself in at 6s but picked the other one instead in the test. Damn.
        But any horse with a I or a G, if it’s 10/1+ in morning its’ an S5 or S1, or if shorter it quals when drifts to 11.00+ BFSP. Hopefully becomes second nature even on odd time I forget to add the correct note!
        Josh

        1. Yes as an S1 backer I just look straight for those red G1 and G3s. After FB won, I briefly thought I was on but not to be unfortunately!

          As long as I’m backing the strategies as intended that’s good enough for me! A monster S1 will go in soon enough, yesterday helped.

          1. yep, they’ve ticked along well since introduction but is a 10-14% win SR angle which means will be some dips, but in theory should keep repeating over time. Yep that drifting winner helped couple days back as they had been on a losing run, but that was on the back of a decent enough run. That’s the way it goes, slow and steady and accumulate over time.

  10. Just to drive everyone mad (including me) my selection today was Mr Medic in the 2.40 at Ascot. I posted this in a terrible hurry about 10am via my mobile as I was up in Northants looking after my ailing mother and she has no broadband.

    I have just got home and checked in to see to my horror that it is not in today’s thread.

    Below is the winnings receipt from Bet Victor. I took 18’s when it was generally 16s but as they don’t give me BOG I failed to get the sp of 20’s.
    The bfsp to which I report was 24 (23’s)

    EW Mr Medic @18/1
    Stake Return
    £35.00 £413.00
    Won
    Mr Medic
    Outright
    ASCOT 14:40
    @18/1
    Bet date: 09:50, 23 Nov 2018
    Transaction ID: 96140337500

    This buggers up my record keeping for this particular thread but I can’t resolve the issue in my head. Can’t bear the thought of being accused of after-timing even if that is what this looks like.

    Arbitration please.
    Hugh

    1. haha, well Hugh as after-timing efforts go you’ve gone to some length there!! 🙂 (JOKE!)
      Sadly I don’t think you can include it in your thread total as no-one knew about it! You can just take great solace from the fact that you are clearly reading it well at the moment, and of course that healthy financial return. That’s annoying on the record keeping front but if you’re keeping a running total for those posted on here say, they have to be posted! Otherwise that’s a can of worms for us all.
      Josh

    2. Hugh
      Are you in the pay of the bookies!! very frustrating when this happens certainly could have done with that one,no pressure then tomorrow.
      Cheers
      Colin

  11. Ok guys, thanks. I knew the answer really but having just started the thread to miss out on what would have given me a confidence cushion is frustrating.
    The way in was Walford’s recent record at Ascot 2 wins 3 places in the last 12 months and the horse having previously twice won off a similar breaks.

    Indulge me if I harp on about this when I next have a long losing run!
    Hugh

    1. I think the ticket should be sent to Josh for forensic verification, maybe a lie detector test on Jeremy Kyle show and an interrogation by Matt Chapman to put this one on the board. Next thing you know people will start cancelling picks because they drift !!

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published.