Members Daily Post: 22/11/18 (complete)

Test tips x3, Section 1 (complete), test zone

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack

2.Any Tips/Notes (Daily Tips/Festival Tips/other thoughts)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack

Market Rasen

1.25 –

Aaron Lad (all hncps) ES+ G3 13/2 S3A  WON 13/2>7/2 

Townshend (m runs) H3 8/1 UP

Perfect Man (hncp h) I1 7/2 UP

2.35 –

Cougars Gold (m age) 13/2

Showem Silver (m class) G3 28/1 S1 UP

 

Wincanton

None

 

Irish Bonus 

2.40 Thurles – Cold Shoulder (hncp h) H1 13/8 UP

 

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KEY

H1/H3= HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)

G1/G3 = Geegeez GoldSpeed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated

I1/I3 =  Inform Racing Speed Ratings – Top Rated or Top 3

14,30 = Geegeez Goldtrainer form’ indicators14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr3010+ runs last 30 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr

S1-S6 : S = ‘Strategy’ and refers to the ‘advised strategies’ in the link below. S1 = ‘Strategy 1’. Added on morning of racing along with the price. w1won last start.   w2won two starts ago (tracking as of 15th Feb 2018)

NEW! Welcome Video 2018/19>>>Watch HERE>>>

The Strategies: Where should you start? Some ideas HERE>>> 

‘Flat Strategies/results‘: Flat 2017 Read HERE>>>(updated to end Sept 2018)

‘Jumps Strategies/results’: Jumps 2017/18 Read HERE>>>(updated to end Sept 2018)

Research Articles: (TTP reports/Test Zone/Monthly Articles/Big Meetings Notes) READ HERE>>>

VIDEOS: Members Repository: HERE>>> . All Public (non members only) Videos HERE>>>

IMPORTANT: More Welcome Info  HERE>>> (please read) (inc must watch videos :)) 

Contact: email:  – info@racingtoprofit.co.uk  … or failing that… racingtoprofit@gmail.com 

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2.Any Tips/Notes (Daily Tips/Festival Tips/other thoughts)

Daily Tips(2017 Sept-Dec: 31/176, +110.75) (2018: 28/318,100p, -18.2) (1 point win /1 pt EW bets) Festival Tips (2018: +152)

Daily Tips

NONE, nothing at a price today.

 

TEST Best of the Stats Quals? (12/36,18p, +16.5 , all 1 point win)

2.35 MR – Ryalex  – 2/1 (gen) 2nd – don’t think he quite stayed sadly, thought he was winning that all day long as they turned for home! Brave from the winner.

2.40 Thurl – Cold Shoulder – 13/8 (BetfS/PP) 6/4 (gen)UP – rubbish.

3.20 Winc – Clondaw Rigger  – 5/2 (gen) WON 5/2>9/4 

that’s all for the shorties test, 09.13, write ups…

Ryalex…one from the test zone below today and I thought this one could be the same price as the fav. Barring accidents i’d fall off my seat if one of the top two didn’t win this albeit Showem Silver would be a nice winner for S1 – i tipped him LTO thinking the better ground/headgear/RH may work wonders but he was awful, seemingly giving up a fair way out with no excuse. You couldn’t back him with any confidence (with subjective/form eyes, which isn’t the point of the strategies. He’ll prob dot up now).  Anyway…Ryalex… I’m hoping his younger legs prevail here as he’s unexposed, dotted up 10 days ago, and could relish this new trip. The ground is a niggle but over this distance I think it will be fine. He handles it, he’s just been outpaced over shorter on it before, to my eyes anyway. He will race prominently and if he can get into a rhythm may make the 284 mile trip worthwhile. Love The Leader…he may dot up again but this is his 4th run since the 9th of Nov and that will catch up with him at some point, hopefully today! yes he won easily LTO but it was an awfully poor race and this is deeper on paper for me – well he has a proper challenger in the selection at least. He could win well again but i’ll take the 10 year old on.

Cold Shoulder… i had the ‘who’s going to win’ blinkers on here, rather than agonising over whether he’s overpriced (having dodged Keithley’s winner yesterday which was frustrating) – I think he could win like an odds on shot, given the opposition have too many questions to answer for me. This horse has really clicked on his last two starts and seems versatile as to conditions. He couldn’t have won much easier at Ayr and he is the one to beat. Cromwell’s is interesting but has fallen the last twice over fences and will have been trained for chasing, so i can leave him reverting back to hurdles. Connections may just want him to enjoy himself again, rather than being ultra aggressive. The rest look a rather moderate/exposed bunch to my eyes. This is all about whether Elliots runs his race. He won’t need to improve on that last run. He wins if he does, and he should win well.

Clondaw Rigger…as I think this one will…provided the ground isn’t too lively but I have to trust connections on that front and with some morning frost hopefully it rides slower than GF, but in any case he won LTO on GS, and hasn’t run on faster than that over fences or at 3m, so it’s hard to say he won’t handle it. He’s in the best form of this lot, jumps like a stag, travels well, and has every chance of following up. He’s fit, in form, and open to progress. He was chased home by an unexposed one LTO with the rest of them in a different county. If this was officially soft I think he’d have been put in 6/4 or so, but i’ll take the chance that he will be just fine. I tipped Asking Questions at Chelt LTO but will keep a watching brief at 3s- he does now have to prove he stays, seemingly not relishing the trip as I thought he may do, but this is calmer waters. The yard are a bit hit and miss at the moment also. Guerrilla Tactics has some solid chase placed efforts without winning a handicap chase yet and has had 60 days off, so I can leave him. I’d be mildly surprised if one of those three didn’t win this, but the selection is the one to beat for me, on what they’ve done over fences to date/recent form.

That test profit pile should be +19.5 having talked myself out of Solstice Star yesterday. I failed to put enough emphasis on how many were making seasonal reappearance and that should have been enough to tip me over the edge at 7/2, as on reflection the race wasn’t too competitive and I gave him a strong enough mention, while staying rooted to the fence. Never mind, we live and learn.

 

3.Micro System Test Zone

A Dunn (25/1< guide)

1.15 Winc – Thahab Ifraj 22/1 WON 66/1 ! (85.00 BFSP, gulp) 

 

Jumps Fact Sheet 2018/19 

LTO winning trainers

12.55 MR – Keep The River (10/1< guide) 9/2 UP

Jockeys/Chasers

3.20 W – Clondaw Rigger  9/4 WON 9/4

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Handicap Chase System Starting Points (10/1< best)

2.35 MR – Les Fremantle 40/1 UP / Ryalex 15/8 2nd

3.20 W – Clondaw Rigger 9/4 WON 9/4

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

The latest feature post from Adam Norman,read HERE>>>(notebook horses from a track-side pro punter) (when logged into members club, if you click ‘home’ you should see all posts etc if you wish) 

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A reminder... that during the week there is no new content (edits to section 1, 3 or tips) after 10am mon-friday, 11am weekends. When logged in, you need to refresh your browser I believe in order to see any new updates or indeed any new comments from members.

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

35 Responses

  1. ELITE update,first of all it is a method i backed for many years but was difficult and time consuming to find the bets,now have found a short cut thanks to the computer.
    Watched it for the past couple of years and in both years there as been 40/1 and double priced winners so in October decided to back them only SP was recorded
    11 winners from 65
    7/2,11/2,5/1,20/1,5/1,10/1,6/4,16/1,7/2,7/4,4/1
    Profit + 21.75 points at SP no BOG recorded
    November
    6 winners from 35
    SP 9/2,2/1,11/2,6/5,4/1,7/1 – 4.8 points
    BOG 11/2,11/4,6/1,9/4,4/1,8/1 -1/2 point

    November as been a difficult month for most so have to be happy with the results so far,obviously will only record from November when i started proving the bets here,October was to show the potential.
    So treat with care and you must have a decent bank.

    Colin

    1. October was very good but November has been very tough to date. I have done very well to keep my losses down to £559 to date, which is about 8% of my turnover. I have not had as many bets as usual which will be part of it. I cannot really see a reason why November would be a sticky month other than it is just randomness?

      1. I’ve found November a terrible Month over the years which I’ve put down to not only unsettled weather causing going guesses but turf horses desperate to win, NH races unsure of fitness and superior horses now joining in on the AW.

      2. Started putting up colins bets Sep 2017
        SP only
        Sep +34.95
        Oct + 64.63
        Nov – 41.52 minus November
        Dec + 10 45
        2018
        Jan + 46.44
        Feb + 38.22
        Mar + 37.82
        Total at SP + 153.17
        This November – 4.5 at SP
        Month off next November then into the AW

      3. echo that Martin ive put the cue on the table for the month monitorimg results instead. think i was 10% of turnover but had a horrid cheltenham and need to understand why

    1. Nick
      Raised my stake on your return from Japan,are you thinking of going back!!! Ha Ha
      Only joking will turn around today and hope i have a winner today for it is needed after another 2nd yesterday.
      All the best
      Colin

      1. Well still +15 and +3 to BFSP in November but yeah could be better. Part of it is having had plenty of good luck the past few months I’m getting the other side of the coin but that will soon turn.

  2. RT +9.75 profit slipping away……
    435 Nc Only Spoofing 9/1
    630 Wo Finoah 11/4
    730 Wo Monumental man 6/1
    830 Wo Staffa 9/2

  3. RECENT TIPS
    Daily
    M 2.35 – Showem Silver on 1st run @ 28
    …………Cougars Gold on 4th run @ 11/2 (both new stats qualifiers?)
    N 1.55 – Highwayman on 4th run @ 7
    W 7.30 – Kupa River on 2nd and 5th run @ 10
    Festival
    W 3.20 – Asking Questions on 1st run @ 3
    GL
    Mike

  4. COLINS BETS

    7.30 Wolverhampton Letmestopyouthere BOG 9/2

    ELITE BETS

    3.05 Market Rasen Derrynane BOG 11/4
    7.30 Wolverhampton Monumental Man BOG 12/1

  5. Hi Yarker

    Over the years all my ratings have come from the Daily Mail that is my starting point and then go to Racing Post cards on the computer to check class, as horse won over the distance etc.
    This method served me well over the years.
    Before anyone comes on yes i have slated the Racing Post over the years and most certainly will not buy the rag,but what i need it for it is on the computer free and George Mallory when asked why climb Everest,his reply was because it is there,that is me with the RP computer.

    1. Hi Colin, thanks for sharing, very interesting. I remember some years ago being told that Spotform in the Mail was based on Timeform.
      I hope you’re health issues have a positive outcome.
      Good Luck
      Edward

      1. Thanks Edward its just the waiting game and all three raised there ugly heads at the same time,its the hips major problem stopped me walking long distance and no dancing so sadly lot of non activity so brain becomes to active thinking wrong thoughts.

  6. Thursday’s possibilities…….

    MR 12.55…… Keep The River…… 7.4
    Thur’ 1.35….. Los Alamos……….. 5.0
    Winc’ 1.45….. Railroad Junkie….. 4.5
    Newc’ 2.55…. Moonlight Spirit… 10.6
    Winc’ 3.20….. Ruperra Tom…….. 9.0
    MR 3.40…….. Ruthless Article….. 8.6
    Newc’ 4.05…. Zorro’s Girl………… 8.6
    Wolv’ 6.00….. Elenora Delight ….. 11.0

    After yesterday’s debacle (2 winners and a 3rd), I’ve decided to just put them up and to hell with it. Usually rule applies. Some are gettable at the moment but no doubt some won’t make the BFSP minimum.

  7. 3.30 NEWC : GOOD BOY ALFIE 20/1
    P.O.I.’S
    Sire is prolific for this surface
    horse has won here before ( all be it over 7f)
    trainer won this race last year
    jockey is in tip top form
    and alfie is the name of my dog 🙂 (one of my first go to angles obviously)
    just a bit of interest on an otherwise dour day for my betting interests 🙂
    gl/gb

  8. wow josh thats some micro system a 66/1 winner in the 1.15 well done my son for finding that one, only had 50p e.w. but very happy with that

    1. That my friend is 50p EW more than I had!! 🙂 That angle hadn’t been doing great, well 1/22 this year, -17, and 0/20,1p those above 33s SP in study period, but was a ‘guide’ price, given odd biggy around 33s has gone well/won… I thought 22s was short this morning, i did look at him for tipping purposes but hard to make much of a case albeit not many goes in handicap hurdles and had won a novice on decent ground. Totally missed his drift, and his BFSP of 85.00!! which I may have had £2 on, but prob no more than that.
      But, glad you had a piece, good fun cheering him home if nothing else. That’s the point of that section and all quals, to do with as you please. That angle is the sort where they will just pop up every now and then, making little sense on paper.

  9. and now aaron lad …. under the old “r2 the p to the sp2 to the a ” double act 🙂
    great stuff innit 🙂

    gl/gb

    1. With any luck the tide may be about to turn for them! fingers crossed.
      A win for Elite Squad+, aka S3A … they went through 50 points a few days back, and before today were 47/214,69p, +57.11 points up for the year I think, now +63.61 or so if nabbing 13/2. That’s ticking along fine, maybe I need to be a bit more bullish with advice on that one, albeit S3A# has similar but higher ROI, and results for those included in those just mentioned. Still, nice to have another stats only angle that seems to be ticking along just fine.
      Josh

    1. I have to applaud you for level stakes, a man after my own heart. Very well done!

      I backed the horse last time at Wolverhampton in first time visor, gave it a miss today.

    2. good stuff Chris, do you have any figures to hand to backing them all blind in test zone?? Do you do it to BFSP? Yep…price always tricky…where you see ‘guide’ or ‘best’ that isn’t a strict cut off based on the research as some indications/history that the odd biggie goes well etc, it’s more as a guide to confidence I suppose. When it’s a price then a < , ie 16/1< , that is a strict rule based on the research but we saw with Venetia how that can be futile, given her 20/1 winner the other day, her first in that angle in the research period having been 0/27 or so with those above 16s. So, the biggies do drop in. Quite the return. WELL DUNN!! 🙂

  10. The Geegeez TTS qualifiers seems to be doing well now after a slow start. Does anyone have an idea of the profit? I decided to abandon it for this year but will go for it next year if it turns out to be productive this year

    1. At BFEX SP at approx 4% this stayed static for 12 months at least fiddling ards

      Oct – 2.21 points
      Nov – 2.975 points including todays winner.

      Find it difficult for yesterday out the three,one was under 10/1 but drifted out to 16/1,so unless you can be available 10 mins before each of the races then for me difficult to follow,never keen on these price sensitive methods for you only need one of the favs to pull and then it will make possible 14/1 a bet even though on the ratings not good enough to win.
      Will give it next month to see if it performs better with more quality runners out.
      Look at the prices about 10.30 and make a decision if a bet or not.
      Will be interesting to see what Traf69 figures are.
      I do look at Oddschecker for the guide price and then back on BFEX SP.
      Hope this is an help.

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