Members Daily Post: 21/11/18 (complete)

No tips. Section 1 (complete), test zone

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack

2.Any Tips/Notes (Daily Tips/Festival Tips/other thoughts)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack

x2 late additions,08.08, I missed a G1/G3 off 12.40 Chep and 2.55 Hex…

Chepstow

12.40 – Holdbacktheriver  (HcH)  w1 H3 9/1 

12.40 – Juge Et Parti  (micro LTO) 9/2

12.40 – Albert D’Olivate (all Hc’s, HcH, micro LTO) G310/1 S1 S2

2.15 – Snuff Box (nov HcCh)  w1 15/2 

3.20 – Vivaccio  (HcCh, micro distance) G3 9/1 S1 (IF 11.00+ BFSP)

3.20 – Modeligo  (HcCh, micro TJC) 20/1 S2A 

3.55 – Radical Archie  (HcH) w1 G3 7/1 S1 (IF 11.00+ BFSP) WON 12/1 / 15.00 BFSP, so an S1 on the drifting approach, s1 w1 needed that…

3.55 – Great Fairy  (all Hc’s,HcH) 12/1 S2 

 

Hexham

1.50 – Beyondtemptation   (HcH) G3 20/1 S1 S2A 

2.25 – Apache Pilot   (micro class) 16/1 S2A 

2.55 – Miss Amelia   (micro;s age and runs) G3 14/1 S1 S2 

2.55 – Avondhu Pearl   (micro distance) G1 16/1 S1 S2A NR

 

Warwick

2.35 – Santiago De Cuba   (all Hc’s, micro’s class, LTO)   ES+ H3 13/2 S3A 

2.35 – Malachite   (all Hc’s) I3 3/1 

3.10 – Beat That   (all Hc’s) H3 G1 I3 (only 3 run) 6/4 S4 WON 6/4>10/11 

 

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KEY

H1/H3= HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)

G1/G3 = Geegeez GoldSpeed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated

I1/I3 =  Inform Racing Speed Ratings – Top Rated or Top 3

14,30 = Geegeez Goldtrainer form’ indicators14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr3010+ runs last 30 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr

S1-S6 : S = ‘Strategy’ and refers to the ‘advised strategies’ in the link below. S1 = ‘Strategy 1’. Added on morning of racing along with the price. w1won last start.   w2won two starts ago (tracking as of 15th Feb 2018)

NEW! Welcome Video 2018/19>>>Watch HERE>>>

The Strategies: Where should you start? Some ideas HERE>>> 

‘Flat Strategies/results‘: Flat 2017 Read HERE>>>(updated to end Sept 2018)

‘Jumps Strategies/results’: Jumps 2017/18 Read HERE>>>(updated to end Sept 2018)

Research Articles: (TTP reports/Test Zone/Monthly Articles/Big Meetings Notes) READ HERE>>>

VIDEOS: Members Repository: HERE>>> . All Public (non members only) Videos HERE>>>

IMPORTANT: More Welcome Info  HERE>>> (please read) (inc must watch videos :)) 

Contact: email:  – info@racingtoprofit.co.uk  … or failing that… racingtoprofit@gmail.com 

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2.Any Tips/Notes (Daily Tips/Festival Tips/other thoughts)

Daily Tips(2017 Sept-Dec: 31/176, +110.75) (2018: 28/318,100p, -18.2) (1 point win /1 pt EW bets) Festival Tips (2018: +152)

Daily Tips

NONE…

I have stared at every stats qualifier on this page with my at times dodgy ‘subjective/form eyes’ using the stats quals as a ‘starting point’ and don’t wish to tip anything at the prices. With any luck i’m very wrong on a few of them, esp the main strategy quals. Four of them do look interesting… Alber D’Olivate who’s being backed and hits a strategy qual, he’s a S1/2 and would be a welcome winner for S1 – He’s lightly enough raced but 13/2 is short now tipping wise given fitness is a guess and he’s a moody sort. Maybe NM has revived him on his second start for the yard and he does know how to win in the slop. On a going day he could just keep galloping. In the 2.55 Hexham – you’ll do well to find a worse handicap hurdle and it shouldn’t take much winning. Both Miss Amelia and Avondhu Pearl are maidens still but lightly enough raced in this code and both have bits and pieces of placed form that would give you hope of a big run, but plenty of finger in the air guessing tipping wise. Fingers crossed one can win for S1. Vivaccio for Venetia in the 3.20 Chep – I looked at him for an age and was on the fence as to tipping him. He was probably the closest I came to getting off the fence but 8s or so felt about right. I suspect that fitness won’t be a question and his mark has plummeted. It wouldn’t surprise me if Aidan races him up there and this is the weakest chase he’s run in for some time. He came back after 600+ days before last season and arguably had the odd excuse – running in some decent C2s/3s and also over 16f which does look short enough for him now and a few times in heavy which may not have suited. This trip around here could be fine. But, he can be keen enough, he isn’t the biggest and can hit a fence. And while I think this trip may be ideal he does still have to prove he stays. I won’t fall off my seat if he wins, hopefully doing so at 11.00+ on BFSP starting price (you can set that anytime you wish) and hitting S1 that way, and indeed for the VW November angle in the test zone. He may look very threatening turning for home if still on his feet.

Anyway, there were enough doubts at the prices for me to tip, esp given my form before I went away, so i’ll leave them for that purpose.

 

TEST Best of the Stats Quals? (11/33,16p, +16)

None…this is my test where I look at shorter priced stats quals on this page, generally anything under 7s/8s, but nothing today. Solstice Star WON, damn may go well for a long way but he stole his win LTO as he poached a lead and was able to doss out in front until they turned for home and wasn’t exactly emphatic, but he’s fit and in form, he stays and handles the mud, and most of the others have questions to answer on that front, but 7/2 isn’t exactly generous I didn’t think. Queen of Hearts could be interesting but makes hurdle debut after  a break so 5/2 seems short also, but she could be worth watching this season as she had some good bumper form, albeit against her own sex and the yard are going well.

Hopefully I’m wrong on a few of the strategy quals today! 🙂 Best of luck with any bets.

 

3.Micro System Test Zone

Jumps

A Dunn (25/1< guide)

3.55 C – Foxy lass 33/1

Autumn Trainers

3.55 C – Fortia (14/1<) 10/1 DNQ

A Honeyball 

1.00 W – Drops of Jupitor (10/1< guide)

R Hobson (33/1< guide)

12.40 C – Echo Watt 25/1

3.45 W – Filipine 40/1

V Williams November (16/1< guide)

2.15 C – Snuff Box 8/1

3.20 C – Vivaccio 9/1

 

Jumps Fact Sheet 2018/19 

Trainers to Follow

1.20 H – Senor Lombardy (11/1< guide) 5/4

2.55 H – Chanceanotherfive (11/1< guide) 11/2

LTO Winning Trainers

12.40 C – Solstice Star 10/3 WON 7/2 

12.40 C – Holdbacktheriver 9/1

1.10 C – Queenohearts (12/1< guide) 9/4

3.55 C – Radical Archie 15/2 WON 15/2>12/1 

Jockeys/Chasers

2.15 C – Mr Mcguiness (25/1<) 25/1 DNQ

3.20 C – Modeligo (16/1<) 20/1 DNQ

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

I’m back in the flat in Liverpool so it’s now ‘back to normal’ with timings of posts  – Section 1 + 3 by 6pm night before (Tues-Sat,some flexibility on Sunday/Monday) and then the final touches on the morning or racing – the generally available prices I add around 8am, and then the strategy (S) symbols, and any section 2 ‘tips’.  Remember as of 6pm when Section 1 above is posted, you have all the info you need to follow any strategies the evening before if you wish, using oddschecker for prices etc. As always info on what all the strategies are can be found in The Key above. Or of course you can just wait until i’ve ‘completed’ section 1 on the morning of racing if you so wish. 

My thanks to Mike and Chris for sending me Section 1 while i’ve been away. There are days in the last week that i’d have really struggled to post without them! 🙂 Oh, and i’m now a fan of the NFL. Go Saints!

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Post Comments

Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

45 Responses

  1. Colin, do you not share your results to the prices that you advise? Surely a lot better than SP that you quote? Do you back them to SP or advised?

    Sorry if I’ve missed the answer to this previously

    1. Chris, Colin puts his results up weekly and monthly. Initially he only posted results to SP but in the last 3-4 months he’s also been putting up results to BOG. I can vouch for the accuracy of Colin’s results.

      1. Cheers Ken, I’d seen the BOG prices but opportunities for BOG are getting less and less. Always thought betting at SP was a hard task so wondered if betting at the advised prices on a morning of was a profitable compromise between the two.

      2. Hello Ken, can I ask you for your opinion on Inform, do you also use GeeGeez. I am not asking for your methods, just your thoughts on both services
        Regards
        Edward

        1. Hi Edward. Sorry this is a bit late, been busy with grandchildren tonight. I think Inform’s data is very good but until now you haven’t had direct access to their database to analyse results and create systems (unlike Geegeez and HRB who allow you to query their database). I had to create my own spreadsheet to record the data and develop my system which takes a lot of time to input.

          However, that is about to change. They are introducing a system builder with direct access to the database (5 years data, I believe). Once it is issued I will give it a try to see if it helps to reduce the time I was spending on it most nights. I’ll let you know how it goes.

          1. Hello Ken, thanks for your reply, I already subscribe to Geegeez and considering subscribing to Inform ( I have been a subscriber in the past). Just not sure, Horse race base .
            ? Undecided.
            Thanks Again
            Edward

    2. Chris have been closed down by every major bookmaker not just restrictions and i am not a wealthy man if you are a consistent winner and the accounts department keep transfering money into your account then they will close you down.The only firm i can have a small bet is Coral and that is a struggle to get £5 ew on my golf bets.
      My health as been deteriorating two different cancer issues but my hips have gone waiting for an appointment for my left one,so chasing around the bookies at 64 is not easy and once again when your face is known they will not take your bets.
      Anyway to answer your question i back on Betfair exchange at SP so my income has plummited and Ken mentioned that i now put BOG prices by Bookmakers SP to show the comparison which is alarming.
      SP BOG
      Jun – 31.56 + 10.35
      Jul + 7.36 + 37.62
      Aug – 20.06 – 4.78
      Sep + 1.71 + 15.60
      Oct + 10.87 + 26.33

      – 31.68 + 85.12

      Started putting BOG up in June for it had been a rough month at SP and so the following 3 months turned rough as well at SP,also on here at times there are some fancy claims ie the individual took a price however others would struggle to get on and not a fan of over night prices for many of the top named tipster forget to include the R4 in their results,and i am not talking about on here,but sure so do.
      It annoys me when my honesty and integrity are questioned for even when i put BOG prices there must be two bookmakers showing the price will never put the price of a stand alone bookmaker and all R4 are deducted.
      It is a hard game to win at for once you consistently beating SP the bookmaker will close you down,having said all this i enjoy putting my bets up so can hopefully help anyone take money of the bookmaker and we all know they are accountants and not bookmakers now.
      Thank you Ken for conferming my results for we have been emailing one another and Ken as been using is computer and stat skills to see if we can improve the profit over a period of time.
      CHRIS sorry to you for i did answer your question and also showed my frustration by venting a little anger for it still astounds me that Nick and others put info up for free.
      I have had my own tipping line in my own name Colin Leafe and also had a tipping line called Elite racing which was with Optimum Racing and had a Golf Line also with Optimum Racing.
      Lastly if anyone wishes to take me on at SP win only bring it on NICK you are excluded and no i am not scared.
      Cheers
      Colin

      1. 99.9% of the comments towards your tips on here are positive, I wouldn’t let the odd niggle bother you like it clearly is.

        Thanks for answering my question, I’m just considering my options for 2018 as I expect it’ll be hard to get my bets on and was just seeing if you had the results for using shops or bookies like Blacktype that guarantee to lay so much per races. I see now you do purely to SP, cheers.

          1. Chris (& Colin). Would it not be better to seek a price on BF similar to bookies odds, at say 10am, when a market is starting to form? Depends on your bet size but you can always request a price and if not matched take BSP. I’d think over the long term this would pay more than BSP?

          2. Hi Ken
            Looked at this sometime ago Betfair Exchanges around mid morning nothing worth while in the pot and come close to race time the bookmakers have manipulated the Exchange market for since PP bought Betfair the prices have tightened up,Ladbrokes bought Betdaq who i have not used,but you can be assured they did not buy the Excanges for the good of the punter.
            Betfred took over the Tote and have about destroyed it totally against what the racing word wanted they predicted Betfred would do this never see any any promotions for Tote.
            The only way is to scoot round as many shops as you can and take the early price for many of my bets do appear to be well backed,once you are noticed keep collecting they will not take your bets.
            With restrictions and closing accounts they dont half _uck you up.

        1. Cheers for your comments greatly appreciated afraid too much time on my hands upto 8 weeks ago even with pain would walk 3 to 4 miles a day,now only walk to the shops which is not far,from being active all your life difficult to adjust to this.
          Talking of time will have to try and review some old methods and see if they are still workable,for Elite just had a 2nd which is no good for me win only.

  2. 2 bets yesterday Plus 4pts minus 3pts…profit + 1pt as Ulis De Vassy finished 4th with Sportsbook (WH payed 3 places) @SP 16/1 so given the current fracas with Chubnut et al have recorded this as a point profit as I backed it for a 4th place and recorded it at SP price (apologies if that offends those who dislike recording profit and losses at SP) and as the other selection achieved 6th place and I could not find a bookmaker paying 6 places have recorded it as as loss!! Will be absent for a week or too so no posts…. hope everyone kisses and makes up by the time I return…if not…c’est la vie! Be good!

  3. Smart Boy Chepstow 12:40 1pt e/w-10/1-Looks a solid bet here. Has come out of a hot looking race with the winner coming 2nd in a class 2 NTO, the 3rd coming 2nd in a listed race and winning a class 2 and the 6th winning a class 3. He drops down in class to a class 4 here. That was his seasonal re-appearance and he appeared to fade late so should come on for this. He is one of only 3 runners who is race fit here which is also a plus given the rain. Should be able to either lead or race just behind Dickie here. Was 2nd here at the track last season in his only previous visit to the track so we know he handles the track which is crucial at Chepstow. The only potential concern is whether he will stay but going by breeding he should improve for the step up in trip (half brother to Outlaw Pete who used to run the 3m7f Cross County races for fun on the mares side and plenty of stamina on the sire side). Jockey and trainer have a solid 4/20, 7p +11.4 in class 4 hurdles this year.

  4. Firstly. Colin, I’m sorry to hear about your health issues and that you took my comments personally, I can assure you none were ever with you in mind. On the contrary I applaud you for using the only transparent way of recording results, which very few do. You do have a lot on your plate and I wish you the best going forward. (My dad swore Hawthorne extract helped his prostate cancer immensely)

    Wolv 5.50 Prince of Time 1pt EW

    Turf sprints are my forte while having numerous angles that change constantly to fill the boredom of few bets. One of these comes from the use of Geegeez gold instant expert where I look at H’caps of 3YOs + only. Firstly in the WIN segment I’m looking for no green in the class column, which shows the race isn’t that competitive. Then in the PLACE segment I’m looking for a sole horse that shows green in the class column + one other ( going, Trip or course)

    The theory is you have a horse who has proven form in a certain class in a race possibly sub standard that class. Obviously there are other concerns such as pace, draw, price etc which I can comment on later. The point I’m trying to put across is one can have a completely mechanical system based on individual horses that doesn’t rely on bare factual overall figures.

      1. General,
        Its gone 13/25 4 places since July. Small sample I know but I think the theory is very solid. For a system with its main strength in its place form the 4 places are a concern at the moment. The beauty of this is it shows you that you can have said mechanical systems and couple it with traditional form reading. I’ve always struggled with mechanical systems and thrown the towel in quickly on a bad run, this type of system just gives you more control.

    1. interesting angle. it’s 0/6 over today’s distance of 6f. isn’t that a factor in whether to bet or not? Seems best over 7f

      1. the figs should read 25 losers so 13 W from 38 bets 4 places. the sight of Anne Hegerty on TV must have unhinged me. This system throws up an average of one a week. I didn’t see any yesterday and only one today, maybe I didn’t explain the parameters well enough.

    2. Chubnut thanks for your kind words but for the life of me cannot see how you can back this one hope that i am wrong.All races below 6 furlong never won over this distance.

      20/9/14 C2 5/9
      2/5/15 C5 12/12
      21/2 17 C6 3/12
      14/4/18 C5 11/11
      1/11/18 C6 11/12
      Tonights race 6f good draw but with 5 3yos in the race and out the 5 one of them must still be improving and will probably have the legs to beat a 6yo which never won over the distance.
      Hope that i am wrong.

      1. Thats the downside of mechanical systems and we all know what happens when you leave them. I see Hugh Taylor tipped a 50/1 shot EW that come 2nd @ 11/2 !! crazy stuff.

  5. General,
    Its gone 13/25 4 places since July. Small sample I know but I think the theory is very solid. For a system with its main strength in its place form the 4 places are a concern at the moment. The beauty of this is it shows you that you can have said mechanical systems and couple it with traditional form reading. I’ve always struggled with mechanical systems and thrown the towel in quickly on a bad run, this type of system just gives you more control.

    1. Thanks for this Chubnut, sounds interesting. Would be appreciated if you could post qualifiers for a few months?

  6. Will do Mark,
    Funny enough your question points out another failure in our understanding the Psychology of chance. As Humans we are constantly looking for patterns, probability and validation. That’s genes working for our survival, betting horses doesn’t need that extent of conformation, trust your instincts.

    Our gut feelings are very important when it comes to gambling and staking, I think we all know when we are overstepping the mark. Easily forgotten with winners hence reading the book I mentioned in a previous post.

  7. COLINS BETS

    4.50 Wolverhampton Red Stripes BOG 9/1

    ELITE BETS

    12.40 Chepstow Juge Et Parti BOG 11/2
    1.50 Hexham Minella Fiveo BOG 9/1

  8. RECENT TIPS
    Daily
    C 12.40 – Smart Boy on 1st run @ 9
    ………….Echo Watt on 1st run @ 50
    C 1.40 – Duke of Kilcorral on 2nd run @ 7
    H 2.55 – Miss Amelia on 5th run @ 9
    …………Avondhu Pearl on 3rd run @ 14
    H 3.30 – Budarri on 8th run @ 8
    Festival
    C 2.15 – Robinroyale on 3rd run @ 66 (the odd 4plcs at less odds about if doing e/w)
    K 6.40 – Hathal on 1st run @ 8
    …………Via Via on 2nd run @ 14
    3m+
    C 12.40 – Western Climate on 5th run @ 22
    C 2.15 – Billy Bronco on 1st run @ 11/2
    GL
    Mike

      1. Avondhu Pearl a non runner so 5.5pts profit to sp and 7 to prices at time of posting. A good time to remind anyone following my NH efforts that I use a 100pt bank.
        Hugh

  9. Too many snags for me today. Found some interesting runners but they all come with compromises that put me off. Top Ville Ben for example had me excited but the jockey has only the one win from 33 rides over fences. I notice Alpha spotted that one too. I’m hoping Mr T Dowson smartens up his act for you Alpha.

    Others I liked included Ballybough Nora, but the trainers record with debutantes at all tracks is appalling so that one bit the dust too. Sabrina Fairchild also has great appeal and plum draw too but…… D E Sheehy (the pilot) is 0 from 53 @ Dundalk. Who hires a jockey that has such a poor track record? You wouldn’t hire a surgeon that was 0/53 to so much as cut your toenails for you. Nuff said…. rant avoided. I can only conclude that owners have more money than sense.

    Either way I won’t be risking my money so not risking yours.

    1. Whose stats are you using Tim? RP suggests 20 from 245 which is only 8% but a lot better than 1 from 33. I actually saw him as a positive not just for his 3lbs but because of my observation of him over the last year. I think he is going to become a top northern jockey.
      Hugh

      1. I use Proform for jockey stats. I just checked again and his record for non handicapped events is 1/33. He is better in handicaps where he scores 8.53% but I’m reluctant to use handicap scores for apprentices cos they are generally by nature more experienced horses they are riding.

        Maybe I was over thinking it…. or maybe Mr T Dowson read my post. 🙂 Either way well done for picking it.

      2. Hugh/Tim
        T Dowson noticed that he is a 3lb claimer so he is progressing and gained a lot of experience,his he still riding for the same trainers what the stats are showing or are their new ones this year who are latching onto his ability.
        P Kirby in form at the moment so what is Dowson percentages with him could be far better than the blanket stats are showing,and when a young jockey is starting out he will not be on the better animals in the trainers yard till he has proved himself,so not to keen on blanket stats.

  10. ….. and Ballybough Nora came third at 20’s! Lucky I wasn’t watching that one or I’d have been taking a hasty shower with a fresh pair of underpants now.

  11. …… and then Sabrina Fairchild only goes and wins! Sometimes I think following the form is just a POS! Excuse me whilst I just go stick my head in a bucket of water.

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