Members Daily Post: 20/11/18 (complete)

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack

2.Any Tips/Notes (Daily Tips/Festival Tips/other thoughts)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc

*

 

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack

Fakenham

2.00 – Foxtrot Juliet (nov HcH) w1 H1 I3 4/5 

3.00 – Master of Finance (all Hc’s) ES+ H3 G3 I3 (only 3 run) 3/1 S3A# S4 

 

Southwell

12.50 – Troufion (micro class) H3 G3 13/2 S1 (IF 11.00+ BFSP) 

12.50 – Ben Arthur (micro distance) G1 I3 9/2 

1.50 – Reckless Behaviour (HcH, micro class) ES+  16/1 S2A S3A

1.50 – Nemean Lion (micro TJC) w1 H3 I3 8/1 S5 (IF 11.00+ BFSP) 

1.50 – Miss Spent (micro age) ES+  9/1 S3A 

1.50 – Young Phoenix (micro’s class and runs) G3  22/1 S1 S2A 

 

2.Any Tips/Notes (Daily Tips/Festival Tips/other thoughts)

None. Everything will be ‘back to normal’ from Wednesday’s post onwards, inc timing of posts etc. I’m completing this post in the airport awaiting a flight home, landing 11am your time Tuesday morning, before heading straight back up to Liverpool. 

 

3.Micro System Test Zone

‘Flat’

The Doyler – 3.10 Ling – Originaire

 

Jumps

A Dunn (25/1< guide)

2.00 Fake – Seven Nation Army

Jumps Fact Sheet 2018/19 

Jockeys/Chasers

1.30 Fake – Dawnieriver

3.00 Fake – Ontopoftheworld

*

Handicap Chase System Starting Points (10/1< guide)

1.30 Fake – Sweet Destination

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

Comments …I see you’ve all had some fun chatting away while I’ve been consuming NFL and Bourbon. Go Saints!

As always there are really only two rules…one be polite . Which you all are even when you’re debating. And two… Never question my integrity. Well you can as you can question anything you please but don’t expect a placid response. Everything else is fair game. 🙂

Strategies…

I saw one question from a new member about advised strategies.

As always the Key is your friend and all the links including the ‘The Strategies: where should you start’.

For Jumps I’d start with S1 S2A and S3A#.  The two former are big odds and can have hefty losing runs but it’s a game of profit and why you should start low and build up over time. Both are more profitable to BFSP and they have had success since introduced near back end 2016 start of 2017. As always I have more confidence in those strategies that also include a ratings pointer. (The red symbols) as they are a constant and are horse based ratings married up against my trainer based stats…” a fusion”.

w1/w2… They had a good summer and were a new idea and the overall stats are ok albeit I believe they may be having a hard time. It could be the winter months test them as a different game to summer jumping. But time will tell.

S1 S2A S3A# and w1 were +403 points or so (inc first two to BFSP) at end of October. I’ll get the mid month updates sorted when I get back later in the week then an update to end Nov . Those combined could/will have losing runs of 50+. S1 and S2 A can have that each and the latter has had -80 at some point which won’t suit everyone. The EW approach for that can ensure shorter losing runs with no return etc.

As always any questions… Post away or email. Those 4 strategies plus Nick and plus Colin were over 1100+ points up for 2018, as an aside!! 🙂

It’s 3pn my time. I’ll try and get the post up within the next few hours, 1am or so your time.

Josh

 

 

About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

50 Comments

You can post comments in this post.


  • Eaton Miller Southwell 13:50 1pt e/w-16/1-Looked overpriced considering he has placed in each of his last 3 races. The form of his 3rd 2 starts ago has particularly worked out well with the first 2 winning twice each since. Also each of the trainers last 3 runs which actually ran their races have all placed so the yard is in solid form. I suspect he might have needed it LTO and should come on for it. Trainer and jockey are 3/5 over hurdles at the track and 9/59, 20p +30.8 over hurdles in general.

    Fayez Lingfield 14:40 1.5pt win-12/1-I don’t get how this one is the outsider of the field. He won the race last year off 2lbs higher last year. Two starts ago he won with first time cheekpieces despite getting away slowly. After being taken off last time they return here. Trainer and jockey are 5/11, 8p in handicaps at the track in the past 3 years. I think this has been the plan and expect him to go very close.

    Nick Mazur 19/11/18 9:10 PM Reply


    • Excuse the rant but it drives me mad when I see sheer idiocy. Breden ran yesterday and won easily so the collective idiotic public decided back him down from 6/1 to 3/1 and shock horror he is a non-runner and we get hit with a much bigger rule 4 than we should have. The mind boggles what the average punter must be thinking (or not as the case may be)!

      Nick Mazur 20/11/18 10:50 AM Reply


      • What about The Young Master at Cheltenham. He wins on Friday and the bookies keep him in as second favourite for a race on Saturday. He is fairly obviously going to be a non runner but the bookies keep him up there and when he does formally come out on the day they can slap on a rule 4 to pre pull out bets. Watch out for these ones as it may be a Saturday ploy for bookmakers?

        As for punters generally, they are the public and can act as they wish as we have seen in referendums etc. I think on this site we are in advance of mug punting etc and so let us not worry about what others do but just cope with it.

        martin colwell 20/11/18 11:09 AM Reply


      • of course it wouldn’t be the bookies shortening it up prior to being withdrawn to get a bigger R4 🙂

        martin whittle 20/11/18 11:15 AM Reply


  • Just one for today:
    12.50. South. Ulis De Vassy.

    One for the shortlist is Ubla 15.40 @ Lingfield …I have bet both….gd lck if playing

    silver 19/11/18 9:35 PM Reply


  • Hey the post yesterday was tongue in cheek for you more serious members. I might get some peoples goat up but at least there’s more members interacting and voicing their opinions, which cant be a bad thing. I’m sure we can get some good debates going and we can all learn from each other. Maybe even things like how you get smilie’s on here

    chubnut 19/11/18 9:58 PM Reply


    • Ha. You’ve always been polite Chubnut and yep I agree with all of that. Polite debate is never a bad thing. Yea I need to look at what I can do with comments as picking up tone through words is bloody difficult. Onwards.

      Josh 19/11/18 10:10 PM Reply


    • Thanks to Ken Mckenzie giving you a way out with his i believe your claiming the lay angle was tongue in cheek i certainly do not, so attacking Nick and myself again along with others is a bit of fun,Nick and myself work hard to put up free bets to help members on here to beat the bookmaker i feel that you want to grow up,for again you are now trying to have ago ref serious people on here.
      Assure you that you are not funny only giving offence to many people on here for which is not called for.
      This is the end of debate.

      cleafe 20/11/18 7:05 AM Reply


      • I couldn’t agree more.

        enjoysummers 20/11/18 7:31 AM Reply


        • Well put, don’t rise to the BAIT!!

          Solent 20/11/18 10:01 AM Reply


  • I really hope this Site
    Will no longer Paste up any other Tipster Services. be it SPa2 .
    Ron Williams .
    Not the place.
    Paying for a Site
    Don’t want Ads .

    Richard Hannell 19/11/18 11:14 PM Reply


    • Hi Richard, I agree in terms of the members post and plenty of the recent chat would normally take place in the free posts but i’ve binned them off while away as to save time and pointless clutter, and all those who post regularly on there are members anyway, and they’ve just posted up such comments here, such as those who tip in golf etc, but the free posts will be back on Wednesday.
      Cleary with other peoples services i’ve advertised i’m not going to close down any discussion on such things as every service discussed is always with the best intentions and ‘sunlight is the best disinfectant’, but if possible i don’t like that to take place in the members club – but you’re free to ignore such discussion in comments. ‘the site’ / my list /comms etc will never be free from other services, esp when I judge them to be decent on the evidence available, and then a decent trial/low financial risk/ risk free/money back period available. My members club is very different from anything else but there is an appetite from some to have a small portfolio etc and there are some very good services around, very different from what I do on these pages etc – albeit in truth there are no ‘tipping’ services that could match some of those members who post tips etc! (and arguably my big race tips when looking at ROI!! 🙂 )
      That aspect is an important part of the diversification of my business, and in part is why i’m able/have always promised members fees remaining static on the subs you sign up to, and indeed the prices as they are etc, as I don’t want them to be too steep as to perturb £2-£5 punters etc.
      Anyway. Point noted 🙂

      Josh 20/11/18 1:16 AM Reply


      • I hope you carry on with any services you think you can recommend . I tried Ron Williams although in profit decided it wasn’t for me .I was lucky enough to try SP2A at the start of the last NH season and are still well in profit although disappointing results since about June I trust you to only act in good faith and its up to members to decide for themselves if the want to trial them . Let the buyer beware

        davemox 20/11/18 9:12 AM Reply


        • Lets just give Ian at SP2A a break for a while. He has said that he would seek feedback before Christmas re the service and we can all comment constructively to him then. I have some thoughts and I will share them with Ian as I have done in the past. Then you can make the decision whether to renew with that service or not.

          martin colwell 20/11/18 9:39 AM Reply


          • Hear hear. If you’re unhappy unsubscribe.
            Hugh

            alpha2 20/11/18 11:04 AM Reply


          • Martin. In addition to this did they not start that profit guarantee scheme in the summer? Basically if they don’t make a certain ROI figure in the time you are a member then they either refund you or add time onto your sub free of charge. Fair play to them for that not many tipsters out there offer that as far as I’m away? I agree give them a break.

            Stan 20/11/18 12:54 PM Reply


            • Yes they did and perhaps Ian needs to make more of this guarantee and show how it is works in practice, i.e. give a anonymous example.

              martin colwell 20/11/18 1:00 PM Reply


              • I did the three month trial and got a refund without any issue when I decided not to stay on.

                I found it was a difficult service to use when you’re already using other tipsters. Having a further 3 or 4 selections for races when you already have one or two only ever seemed to benefit the bookie.

                Chris Sengelow 20/11/18 1:20 PM Reply


        • I totally agree with Davemox. Keep on posting details of Tipsters you respect – it’s up to us whether we take them up or not. At the end of the day, it is no good blaming someone else if a bet loses as the buck stops entirely with the person making the bet.

          Phil Covberdale 20/11/18 4:27 PM Reply


  • Fakenham
    2.00 – Foxtrot Juliet (nov HcH) w1 H1 I3
    3.00 – Master of Finance (all Hc’s) ES+ H3 G3 I3 (BUT ONLY 3 RUN!)

    Southwell
    12.50 – Troufion (micro class) H3 G3
    12.50 – Ben Arthur (micro distance) G1 I3

    1.50 – Reckless Behaviour (HcH, micro class) ES+
    1.50 – Nemean Lion (micro TJC) w1 H3 I3
    1.50 – Miss Spent (micro age) ES+
    1.50 – Young Phoenix (micro’s class and runs) G3

    traf69 19/11/18 11:21 PM Reply


  • just one selection for tomorrow,
    Southwell 12-50. Barton Rose 12-1 1/2 pt ew sky 4 places. drops back to 2m4f after a poor showing over 2m7f lto, only 1lb above last winning mark and has a c/d win

    martin whittle 20/11/18 2:35 AM Reply


  • GOLF BETS

    No bet this week

    Last week was certainly strange with Fitzpatrick and Molinari both struggling until the final two rounds,for Matt feel that maybe he needs a rest and the Christmas break is looming would advice him to finish now until January and totally relax and recoup and come back stronger.
    Kisner had a poor couple of rounds then he flew for the final two rounds and somehow tied 7th so we have a reduced return.
    Henley for whatever reason missed the cut on one of his favourite courses,not heard if he was carrying an injury or anything but surprised that he missed the cut.

    cleafe 20/11/18 7:28 AM Reply


  • At last a selection 12.50 Southwell Troufion 1pt e/w
    Comes with the caveat that the horse has been off 547 days; although it has won for this trainer after 92 days off before and Caroline Bailey herself has a 15% strike rate with horses off for 60 days or more.
    Hugh

    alpha2 20/11/18 7:43 AM Reply


  • RECENT TIPS
    3m+
    S 1.20 – Vino Griego on 2nd run @ 3
    GL

    Titus 20/11/18 8:41 AM Reply


  • Monday’s result…..

    Here’ 3.50…….First Figaro………. 9.8… Won @ 7.32 🙁

    Back with today’s update later.

    Tim 20/11/18 8:55 AM Reply


    • good tip Tim, well done.

      general6969 20/11/18 9:04 AM Reply


  • NH tips
    S 12.50 – Barton Rose @ 12
    F 2.00 – Ormskirk @ 8

    info/test picks
    F 1.00 – Frozon @ 16

    Titus 20/11/18 9:02 AM Reply


  • POI:
    2.50 SOUTHWELL : PROPHETS PRAYER 8/1 ON BETFAIR
    An interesting micro on Emma Lavelle’s runners after a 26-60 day break
    A. Coleman is about 50% on these types of runners for the trainer as well and they place about 60% and Southwell is a well known hunting ground for this trainer as well especially in this type of class race. ( for me worth an e/w dabble 🙂 )
    gl/gb 🙂

    GEORGE B 20/11/18 9:23 AM Reply


    • bally hell non runner 🙁
      gl/gb

      GEORGE B 20/11/18 2:56 PM Reply


  • COLINS BETS

    No bet today

    ELITE BETS

    1.00 Fakenham Too Much Too Soon BOG 7/2
    3.40 Lingfield Big Bad Lol BOG 7/1

    cleafe 20/11/18 9:36 AM Reply


  • Sporting Index Tipsters Proving
    Yesterday Chris put this up had a look 12 months proving
    SP only
    Tic Tac Tips + 19.1
    Simply The Best Horses + 9.3
    2020 Racing HSR + 2.1
    Speed Ratings.Com 0.00
    Chris said that their are 4 from 52 tipsters in profit.
    Makes my 100 plus points outstanding which have of course been proven on here.

    cleafe 20/11/18 10:15 AM Reply


    • And every point made was free just like Nick and the Martin’s and Ken and Chris and Titus and so many others that are willing to share the fruits of there 3-4 hours of study on here every day and by the by it takes the same amount of hours work to produce a losing bet but if tipping was that easy Carlsberg would do it
      As a follower of a lot of regular posters thanks for all the work to produce FREE selections daily
      Aaron

      Aaron 20/11/18 1:42 PM Reply


      • Aaron in my 3 to 4 hours research have 10 cans of Carlsberg and then stick my trusty pin into the paper to find a bet so easy.
        Thank you for your kind words it amazes me how anyone cannot see how good Joshs site is,and in your words the bets are FREE.

        cleafe 20/11/18 2:22 PM Reply


  • It was 4 tipsters from all the tipsters that had made at least 52 tips in the last 12 months and been tipping for 12 months 🙂

    Chris 20/11/18 10:30 AM Reply


    • And yes 100pts profit is outstanding 🙂 🙂

      Chris 20/11/18 10:33 AM Reply


  • Nothing from me today.

    Tim 20/11/18 12:32 PM Reply


  • Research on SP2A go onto

    tipping league.co.uk

    and scroll down the tipsters for a long way and you will find 25 services under the SP2A banner,are there any more or is this it,could be a simple explanation,if i was a member would certainly ask the question.

    cleafe 20/11/18 2:12 PM Reply


    • Why are you going do this route, there’s no need for all that. I’ve done all the due diligence before I set up the first 3 month money back trial with Ian in Oct 17 and in that first three month period they made over 300 points. All you need is on racing index under the one daily tips banner , elite and mentions. I’m not going to explain their model etc but it’s not 25 services etc.
      That’s the end of that discussion. It can take place in free comments. As of July there’s been a profit guarantee so when poor performance a full refund on subs can be requested.
      Any more SP2A chat can be taken up with them or me via email
      Josh

      Josh 20/11/18 2:27 PM Reply


      • Josh i apologies to you in public should have emailed you like i intended to do having found that Tipping League,but with all the criticism i have been receiving over the past months for trying to find winners which as you know that i have been successful over a long time just snapped and was horrified as i said finding 25 services under their banner.
        Will email you the reason why i snapped and cannot put on here.
        Cheers
        Colin

        cleafe 20/11/18 2:48 PM Reply


        • I must have missed all the criticism sent your way??? Unless I missed plenty earlier in the week I didn’t flick through. You tip horses to SP and win only. I mean there’s nothing to criticise there haha. I wouldnt let it get to you.

          Josh 20/11/18 3:03 PM Reply


          • sent you an email to info not racing to profit that stressed out so what the hell for have three major health issues and have to wait another two weeks to see if prostrate cancer as come back and dec/jan review appointment on bowl cancer and also awaiting appointment for a new left hip so yes my rhino skin was not thick enough and i saw red for have enough on my plate at the moment.
            What hurts most is no dancing very frustrating,but the pain in the hip is non stop.

            cleafe 20/11/18 3:52 PM Reply


  • As a new member I am a little disappointd that most of the “COMMEMTS” is filled up with back stabbing and rather pointed comments. Would it not be better to have all members tips in one place under a heading SELECTIONS and then use the COMMENTS section for those who want to rant and rave. That way we would not have to worm our way through the dross to find out who is suggrsting what to have a bet on. Thanks to all who do put up tips please let’s seperate them out from the rest.

    Gordon 20/11/18 2:18 PM Reply


    • Oh that’s a rare day Gordon! I’ll blame the fact I’ve been away as normally I’d have jumped in at some point.
      Firstly I/we are lucky there are any comments at all. I don’t have a way of separating such comments. That’s sounds easier said than done. In time you may end up following a handful of posters and I’d like to think it’s not too challenging to scroll through and find those as and when. I wouldn’t judge the tone and direction of travel of comments on last few days 🙂

      I do want to develop a tipping league type element that would actually log bets etc and could be viewed as a separate tab but that’s requires some investigation /investment etc. There’s always something to improve on and I’ll ponder some more. In general the comments work just fine and most tips are posted by 10/11 by members and everything after that is usually chat of one sort or another!

      Josh 20/11/18 2:33 PM Reply


      • glad your back josh .. for some semblence of semblenceness . 🙂
        like many others i am very preturbed how this site just implodes into factional bickering every now and again .
        we are all presumably on here to help each other ??
        back stabbing , tipster crucifying are all totally unjust . this site should be just like the old f.w. woolworths pic n mix counter .. you takes your fancy weigh in and pay at the counter ……… how much your life depends on it is upto you and no one elses 🙂
        WITH JOSH / SP2A / NICK WE HAVE THE BEST TRIO AVAILABLE TODAY ….. USE THEM OR LOSE THEM 🙂
        i am having fun here anyhow 🙂 on y va !!!
        come on the “prophets prayer” .. god knows i need one 🙂
        gl/gb

        GEORGE B 20/11/18 2:54 PM Reply


        • AND ANOTHER THING 🙂 …………. can we please keep all the golf thoughts/tips off this site please and release it on the freebie side of the fence as you wish …. unless lee westwood is running in the 3.30 somewhere .. i am not interested in golf …. on this “racing … that’s “RACING” for profit !! thats what i am paying for and thats all i want 🙂
          gl/gb

          GEORGE B 20/11/18 3:49 PM Reply


          • That was a one off George! 🙂 They had nowhere else to post them as I decided to not put up any free posts while I was away. Said posters stick to those rules in normal times.

            Josh 20/11/18 3:54 PM Reply


        • George
          Noticed the last few days that you have been putting up a few bets which is always welcome,do you have any past results for us to go over to show your success.
          On the golf you are not interested some other members have said this but with Martin Coldwell and myself success rate they have started backing alongside us,this year golf is fast coming up for the christmas break so it may be keep your eye on the results till then for a profit is a profit.

          cleafe 20/11/18 5:06 PM Reply


          • Thanks cleafe
            That’s fine message understood … hadn’t realised you were unable to list on the freebie channel while josh was away 🙁 … so understood now thanks 🙂 . Well i have just finished my 30 year apprenticeship giving all my hard earned money to the bookies . And i am now turning the tide the other way and progressively winning it all back .. thanks to this great site of wisdom 🙂 . I am certainly in no position yet to confidently advise tips for everyone to blindly follow .. but i do have lots and lots of saved micro angles that i have gradually weeded out to leave me with the more profitable ones. i am still in the “fun” stage of my backing life and i only wish to post and pass on “POI’s” as and when they pop up 🙂
            i do have all the profits and losses for them on my hrb system however .. which helps me instantly prove whether they are a viable angle to continue with 🙂

            all good
            keep up the good work team r2p 🙂
            gl/gb

            GEORGE B 20/11/18 5:55 PM Reply


  • Hi Gordon good to have you on board sorry for you initial experience of the site it is not normally like that,have had criticism over many months for recording at SP even though very successful.
    You will have many happy days on RTP in the future.
    Cheers
    Colin

    cleafe 20/11/18 2:58 PM Reply


  • Yes, Chubnut has started something of a fracas! I think some members need to take themselves less seriously, it’s only one person’s opinion v another, not the UN

    Re SP2A, I tried the three month trial in summer, was not impressed and cancelled. However Ian was nothing but courteous and professional throughout, my money was refunded very quickly, and we parted amicably. You cannot say fairer than that.

    Mark Curtis 20/11/18 3:15 PM Reply


Post A Reply