Members Daily Post: 19/11/18 (complete)

Section 1 (complete), test zone

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack

2.Any Tips/Notes (Daily Tips/Festival Tips/other thoughts)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack

Plumpton

1.30 – Zante (HcH, micro down class) 9/2 

1.30 – Brother Bennet (all Hc’s) 20/1 S2A 

2.00 – Mr Fickle (HcH) w1 G1 I3 3/1 

2.30 – Boy In A Bentley (HcCh, micro’s class and distance) H3 3/1 

3.05 – Royals and Rebels (all Hc’s) I3 14/1 S2 S5

3.05 – Rogue Dancer (all Hc’s) G3 8/1 S1 (IF 11.00+ BFSP) 

3.35 – Sizing Sahara (all Hc’s) ES+ G3 16/1 S1 S2A S3A 

 

Hereford

None. No stats profile this season

*

KEY

H1/H3= HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)

G1/G3 = Geegeez GoldSpeed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated

I1/I3 =  Inform Racing Speed Ratings – Top Rated or Top 3

14,30 = Geegeez Goldtrainer form’ indicators14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr3010+ runs last 30 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr

S1-S6 : S = ‘Strategy’ and refers to the ‘advised strategies’ in the link below. S1 = ‘Strategy 1’. Added on morning of racing along with the price. w1won last start.   w2won two starts ago (tracking as of 15th Feb 2018)

NEW! Welcome Video 2018/19>>>Watch HERE>>>

The Strategies: Where should you start? Some ideas HERE>>> 

‘Flat Strategies/results‘: Flat 2017 Read HERE>>>(updated to end Sept 2018)

‘Jumps Strategies/results’: Jumps 2017/18 Read HERE>>>(updated to end Sept 2018)

Research Articles: (TTP reports/Test Zone/Monthly Articles/Big Meetings Notes) READ HERE>>>

VIDEOS: Members Repository: HERE>>> . All Public (non members only) Videos HERE>>>

IMPORTANT: More Welcome Info  HERE>>> (please read) (inc must watch videos :)) 

Contact: email:  – info@racingtoprofit.co.uk  … or failing that… racingtoprofit@gmail.com 

*

2.Any Tips/Notes (Daily Tips/Festival Tips/other thoughts)

None.

 

3.Micro System Test Zone

Irish Raiders (16/1< guide)

3.05 P – Cruising Bye

Jumps Fact Sheet 2018/19 

Jockeys/Chasers

2.30 P – Dr Dunraven (9/1< best)

3.05 P – Cruising Bye (9/1< best)

12.45 H – Keppel Isle

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

/

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

72 Responses

    1. It does look a shocker on Monday. I see that the Bowens have two at Plumpton, which is a long way from Wales; 2.30 Dr Dunraven and 3.05 Cruising Bye. Alan King has a decent record there and has Chosen Path on the 1.00.

      Did you get 5 places on Western Ryder? I was not expecting to but did.

      1. Nicks last 2 days show what a nonsense result keeping is outside normal places at SP. Putting aside whether one got his mentioned prices and BOG included, a 6th place with William Hill only, money back on a no start and a 1st fence fall cash back, 5 places today makes it just ridiculous. Thats not to say what a great job he and others do on here, much appreciated. Just trying to cut through the bullshit usually found on professional tipping services.

          1. Thats a gimme and the only way, what anybody says of their returns cannot be validated because life is too short to check all the nonsense.

          2. Chubnut, I thought that’s what computers are for, sorting the wheat from the chaff, or getting rid of the nonsense!
            I don’t find it time consuming with a computer comparing advised prices with exchange and industry prices at all and is pretty helpful in highlighting nonsense. Of course it’s subjective to the point where everyone bets at different times but I guess most of us have some sort of routine for that. Detail is important to some and can be very helpful and doesn’t have to be time consuming. There are many ways to improve on a tipsters selections with detail.

        1. Asking tipsters to record their results to SP is hugely unfair IMO. So much of their edge is gained from spotting the value on early prices and I’m not sure they would recommend betting the selection at the price available at SP, as all value has gone.

          I think you have to accept that with most popular tipsters (Hugh Taylor, Pricewise etc) the price of their selections will go down as everyone jumps on the bandwagon, so your never going to get the same P&L off their picks as they advertise. You either have to accept a lower P&L, be quicker to the punch, or not bother. It doesn’t take much weight for prices to crash, that will never change.

          1. James not being unfair to record SP for many people are unable to get their money on with the bookmakers restrictions,and if anyone have access to BOG then they are not winning,on the bets i put up showing the difference of early price and BOG and it is amazing the difference in profit talking 100% plus some months,take July’s returns
            Bookmakers SP + 7.36 points
            BOG + 37.62 points
            Proven on here i am over 100 points up at SP with my bets and yes could claim much higher returns if i wished,most tipsters are scared to record SP,along with most of them will not even send their result when requested that includes Henry Rix,Steve Lewis Hamilton and Racing Post Pricewise,and with RP i had to proof my bets to them years ago and they would not send out their flagship tipsters results to me,says it all.

          2. I’m not talking BOG, nobody should claim their P&L using BOG.

            Even if you have restrictions you can get on before the off somehow, exchanges etc

            If someone puts up a tip the night before at a generally available 12/1 then it gets backed in the morning to 9/2 before the off, you think the tipster would still advise the bet at this price?

            A successful gambler worth their salt should work on a value basis on their price versus a market available price, if there isn’t value they wont bet, so why should they use SP when it may mean their selection is no longer a selection?

  1. By the way, I hope anyone following me copped on to drifting prices and traded out on betfair all the losers that I’ve posted. That makes my record 3/0

  2. Plumpton
    1.30 – Zante (HcH, micro down class)
    1.30 – Brother Bennet (all Hc’s)

    2.00 – Mr Fickle (HcH) w1 G1 I3

    2.30 – Boy In A Bentley (HcCh, micro’s class and distance) H3

    3.05 – Royals and Rebels (all Hc’s) I3
    3.05 – Rogue Dancer (all Hc’s) G3

    3.35 – Sizing Sahara (all Hc’s) ES+ G3

    Not enough stats for Hereford

  3. 7.00 Kempton 1 Waqaas Osborne, J A 11.00
    This stallion can be backed blind at most all weather tracks and definitely at kempton . just taken 23.00 on betfair … fair e/w bet for me 🙂

    enjoy 🙂
    p.s. i achieved my holy grail at the weekend and have filled up all 100 slots with micro angles on my hrb system 🙂
    keep having fun and churning all this incredible knowledge between us all 🙂
    gl
    gb 🙂

    1. and just noticed my old favourite in the same race .. have to have a saver on him at this time of year as well 🙂
      7.00 Kempton 3 Black Isle Boy (IRE) 7/1

      🙂
      gb

    2. still have no fear .. i got my money back with “BOG OFF AND MONEY BACK” if your jockey falls asleep in the stalls and forgets what he is at kempton for and comes fifth instead fourth at the very least ! 🙂

      tomorrows another day ………………. so i believe ????? 🙂
      when the fun stops ….shoot me !! 🙂

      gl/gb
      🙂

  4. RECENT TIPS
    Daily
    H 12.45 – Hands of Stone on 6th run @ 9/2
    K 4.30 – Echo Cove on 6th run @ 33
    K 5.30 – Mountain Rescue on 4th run @ 11/2
    K 6.30 – Sunblazer on 1st run @ 11/4
    Festival
    K 5.30 – Mountain Rescue on 5th run @ 11/2
    3m+
    P 3.05 – Snowball on 1st run @ 25
    GL
    mike

    1. w/e 18/11 figs

      Daily runners = 20
      Winners = 3 @ bog 11/2, 13/2, 7/2, @ sp 4, 9/2, 3
      p/l @ bog – 1.5
      p/l @ sp – 5.5
      There were 2 / 1 plcs @ bog 100, 14, @ sp 33,

      Festival runners = 8
      Winners = 0 @ bog , @ sp
      p/l @ bog – 8
      p/l @ sp – 8
      There were 2 / 2 plcs @ bog 12, 14, @ sp 10, 11

      3m+ runners = 9
      Winners = 0 @ bog @ sp
      p/l @ bog – 9
      p/l @ sp – 9
      there were 1 / 1 plcs @ bog 12, @ sp 12

      PLACES @ 10’s+ DO NOT INCLUDE WINS

  5. NH Tips
    P 3.05 – Fly Home Harry @ 14
    P 3.35 – Balkinstown @ 13/2
    H 3.20 – Pembroke House @ 5

    Info/test picks
    P 2.30 – Mr Raj @ 9
    K 5.00 – Diocles of Rome @ 2
    K 5.30 – Samphire Coast @ 14

  6. COLINS BETS

    2.45 Hereford Cougar Kid BOG 7/2

    ELITE BETS

    2.30 Plumpton Boy In A Bently BOG 11/4
    Good winner at Cheltenham yesterday with Palmers Hill SP 7/1 BOG 8/1

  7. Has to be a day for the desperate over the jumps today. Going to take a look at Kempton later so I might still find something of interest, but right now I’m desperate for a haircut so it’s off to town. Will post again later.

  8. There’s an Irish Raider down in the test zone 305 Cruising Bye but its trained by Bowen. Should it be the Barry John Murphy horse, now a non runner? Cheers

  9. Chubnut
    Unable to understand why you only appear to criticize successful members on here,obviously you are having ago at Nick and myself,back to that worn out record!!!
    Record at SP and BOG to be open and transparent and show the difference in profit which can be quite amazing,and not everyone can have access to early prices and BOG,so anyone who managed to have a return on 6th place then that is a bonus for them,however my results are for the majority and not the individual,that is why my results are honest and transparent for everyone and yes i am honest and above board and do not manipulate the results.
    Chubnut your quote ” by the way, i hope anyone following me copped on to drifting prices and traded on Betfair ”
    Forgive me for i never noticed any advice to lay if the prices drifted and the majority of people will back early to get on with their day,so anyone who did not have a crystal ball would not have been aware of this,looks good implying that you won on the races where the prices drifted fantastic figures you have.
    Now if one of these drifters won no doubt you would have claimed it as a winner and forgot the lay.
    This tipping is a very hard game and over all the years that i have done it still have fears when people are following my bets with their hard earned money,one thing i can do is look into the mirror knowing that i am honest with the results not many tipsters can do this.
    Lastly if you spent less time trying to be clever criticizing members on here you would have plenty of time to record your bets,for i still record mine with a pen into a ledger which takes a couple of minutes.

    Record at SP and BOG to show the difference in profits for which it is quite amazing,not everyone have access to early prices for they are on restrictions so anyone who managed to have a return on 6th place then that is a bonus to them

      1. Thanks Peter,certainly not bothered about him having done 9 years in the forces and then 30 years in selling along with tipping horses have a skin thicker than a rhino’s,but for the life of me cannot work out his agenda or what kick he gets out of it.
        Anyway my favourite film is one flew over the cuckoos nest what is yours?
        Cheers
        Colin

        1. I used to be on a great little forum called Gummy Racing back in the mists of time. It got taken over in the end by people who just wanted an argument and the disillusioned guy who ran it pulled the plug.
          Hugh

    1. Well said Colin. Any contributor on a forum providing their views freely has the right to record their results in whatever format that suits them, however people certainly shouldn’t be criticised for recording to SP. It is very useful to know the bare minimum that can be achieved by following a contributor’s bets. I can’t place bets with bookmakers until late morning and can rarely match the best BOG price and so knowing the bets will definitely be profitable in the long-term to SP or BFSP is incredibly useful.

      Unfortunately there will always be people looking to knock success but what you and Nick do (and others such as Hugh, Titus, Chris, Ken, Stewart, Martin etc) out the goodness of your heart is certainly not lost on me and is much appreciated.

      1. Francis not many months ago you put up returns for one month that was quite a few points above what i claimed,obviously you had access to a bookmaker who stood alone on prices for will not make a claim unless two bookmakers show a price.
        When you are constantly winning and beating the price does not take long has you have found out for the bookmaker to restrict or close you down.
        Do not know if you read my response to JamesP,worth a read.
        It amazes me on here sometimes maybe been lucky having rode horse in show jumping and cross country for the RAF rode racehorses on the gallops ,have had over 30 years friendship with trainer Dai Williams and in the early 90’s he had 80 horses in training and every holiday would be down the stables stopping over,also seen the bookmaking side for Adrian a mate had three shops and used to go to the courses with them,Ladbrokes forced him to sell he now has 30 pitches at different courses.
        Guess have had a terrific education over horse racing and riding and enjoyed every minute and if i can help anyone beat the bookmakers then for me it is worth it,and has you said it is for Free!!!heaven help it if they had to pay £1000 plus for many of these unscrupulous tipsters charge,what do people want,it is beyond my thinking.
        Cheers
        Colin

        1. Yes you are right, I have bettered the returns historically. I have been closed down by a few in that time, the worst offenders being Ladbrokes. I was a grand down with them and I got closed down, beggars belief really!

          But generally I was able to better the returns by having access to a few bookies (Sunbets in particular (RIP)) and taking a price on the exchanges where it looked like that would be favourable. Zac Brown is one that sticks out in my mind as an example where I massively bettered the returns by using the exchanges.

          I get others argument that you can only assess value if you know what the price is but you are not advocating everyone to bet at SP, just simply proving that a long-term profit can be made for everyone granted you have a suitable bank etc.

          If you have access to BOG and can track exchange prices during the day then great but if not, you can sleep safely in the knowledge that you can even take BFSP on Colin’s bets and in the long-run you will do very well. Can’t say fairer than that really. Keep doing what you’re doing!

    2. Colin and Nik along with others post their selections in good faith and many are profitable – as Colin says he could post higher profits using BOG etc but declares his returns to SP – there is a really good profit and should be commended for this. I mostly bet simply using Betfair SP – that often gives better returns than SP but not guaranteed odds – it is up to each individual to try and maximise returns

      I agree with Chubnut regarding some of the supposed top tipsters charging extremely high fees and then claiming profits to early prices etc when the reality is the SP returns produce a loss – as Col says BOG doesn’t usually exist for successful punters

      I don’t have a problem with Chubnuts posts but sometimes he offers criticisms which inevitably seem to be referring to members on this site – completely unfair – they are posting for our benefit and without any expectations of charging fees – nobody has to follow

      I also agree with Colin with your reference to trading out for profit – never mentioned in your original postings so to try and claim credit is no different to these highly paid tipsters who claim improbable profit margins – you can’t have it both ways

      Anyway keep posting but try not to be so aggressive towards the contribuors; it merely creates rancour which isn’t necessary

      1. I think Chubnut’s post re trading out was meant be tongue in cheek. At least that’s how I saw it. Don’t agree with much of what he posts but I found that quite amusing.

        1. Ken you see the good in everyone afraid on this one agree to differ,most on here when jesting put up HaHa to let people know that it is fun or tongue in cheek.
          Further down Chris put up sporting index tipsters and only 4 out of 52 are showing a profit to SP,would be top by a country mile with 100 plus points,not good enough for some.
          How is the retirement going not got the shakes yet and withdrawal symptoms from not posting?
          Cheers
          Colin

          1. Cheers Colin. I’m quite happy out of it for now. I’ll have a look at Inform Racing’s System Builder when it’s released to see if that helps but not particularly missing it. I’m making enough profit following the tipsters on here and finding plenty to do with my spare time.

  10. This what my hrb is telling me my untrimmed 🙂 systems (100) would have given me over the last year :
    Bet Wins Win% P/L (SP) Places Place% BF Places BF Place% BFSP P/L
    3310 877 26.5% 1183.24 1490 45.02% 1552 46.89% 2162.7485

    emmmmmmmmm …. probably too many bets so need to trim it down somewhat .. nothing like being transparent 🙂
    welcome to my world … i think i need help 🙂
    thanks for all the info on this site once again 🙂
    gl / gb 🙂

  11. Nothing for me at Kempton tonight, however there is one on the jumps that takes my interest at Hereford in the 3.50. Has excellent sire stats for c/c, distance and going, but the best bit is that Venetia Williams with first time out horses transferred from another yard is 3/5 at Hereford (60%) and 27.8% on sharp/undulating tracks in general.

    Is one of those that could just end up running like a drain, but at 9.8 (currently 10.5 on B/f) I believe it’s worth a bet given VW’s talent for placing her horses in the right races.

    Here’ 3.50…….First Figaro………. 9.8

    1. WELL DONE TIM !! nicely worked out … mind u a bit of bumping going on .. but a bit too far out to affect anything ?? i hope !! ???
      gb 🙂

  12. Hi Josh
    Hope you are enjoying yourself, sounds like it will be hard not to!!
    Jealous about the NFL, watching Dallas is one of a long to do’s on my bucket list
    Just wanted to let you know Aintree have a black Friday offer on for the Dec 8th meeting, half price tickets, £22 down to £11 – I know you went last year that’s all, in case you are not on their email list or not picking up your emails – just got mine
    Cheers
    Harry

    1. Chris sorry to hear that and i feel for Ian and the gang at S2A for when Josh first introduced them via RTP from all accounts they were flying,hope that you are still in the black.

    2. S2A has long losing runs which I’m afraid is inevitable at the odds suggested – last week there was a 2nd @ 50/1 (100 on Betfair) and another @ 16/1
      It only needs a few to win to transform returns which is why you need a big bank…and a strong will to absorb any losing sequence

      1. You say that but they tip a lot of horses in the 5-10/1 range too. It feels to me like they’ve tried to chop and change so much this year that they’ve lost their way a little. This time last year they were absolutely flying. At this moment in time I also won’t be renewing as I have far more success using a select group of free tipsters, although this view may change before my subscription ends.

      2. I agree with the comments about SP2A, they’ve been under performing for quite some time. I don’t have much confidence in backing any of their selections so they’ve sunk to the bottom of my list. I back them at minimum stakes and will continue to do so til the end of the year whereby if there’s no improvement I’ll stop backing them. The Elite service is pretty terrible in my opinion and not worth the money so that will definitely be ditched soon unless there’s a big improvement as many of the selections are far too wide of the mark and offer very little value, not many of them come anywhere near to fitting any trend profiles for the big races and seem to be selected as if it were a normal race. Clearly trends don’t always work but most of the time they’re a lot closer than runners that are way off any trend profile.
        However I think the overhaul of the set up and website along with personal issues has had a massive impact on their performance along with the unusual weather and I’m prepared to weather the storm for a little longer, so best of luck to them going forward but they definitely need to up their game somewhat.
        I don’t think it’s a good idea to chop and change services and most should be given a year to prove their worth especially the ones that proof their tips, the ones that don’t then that’s another matter altogether.

        1. Agree entirely about the elite service, most weeks name half the field and then claim you had the winner on your shortlist. Got blocked on Twitter recently for asking if the ‘elite’ referred to the racing or the tips, oops.

    3. Christopher…to clarify SP2Arun by me is different to Josh’s S2A. I have no knowledge of how Josh’s S2A is performing, but at SP2A we are in the midst of out worst trot in 8 years. Exacerbated by the fact that at this stage in last few years on hock deep ground we were flying and throwing in big priced winners for fun. The losing spell goes back to mid June, and despite a few bright interludes in 2nd half of August in particular has not returned to anything like the form to which we are accustomed. As any professional and ethical Tipster and indeed serious punter will know, there are times when the harder you try, the worse it gets. We’ve tried tinkering, we’ve tried short breaks, and we keep praying for rain. Ultimately you are only as good as your most recent tips, so at the moment things are pretty crap, but it was not that long ago that we were in the “greatest thing since sliced bread” category (members words not ours)…so whilst there is no hiding place, we won’t ever hide. Thought it important to differentiate though between SP2A (independent service) and josh’s excellent S2A…Regards

  13. Just to add about tipsters, if you ever need any proof of just how bloody hard it is then looking at the racing index tipsters that have posted over 52 tips for the last 12 months and only 4 of them show a profit to SP. Hard work this year indeed. A few show profits to BSP but possibly skewed by one or two monster prices who knows.

    1. Chris with sporting index showing only 4 tipsters showing a profit to SP have any of those made 100 points or am i top?
      Joking aside it just shows how good this forum of Josh’s is,why look anywhere else!!!!

  14. Got the email from skybet today. I’m no longer eligible for any free bet promotions and in addition to this they’ve decided to take away BOG from my account. All this despite my account actually been at a loss over the last twelve months. They really are a set of turds aren’t they!

    1. Stan was not going to put anything else up tonight,may be wrong have your betting pattern changed by who you follow for if your account been in the red for 12 months it does seem strange,however the bookmakers have access to most tipsters and if it shows that you are following certain tipsters then that is the only reason they have put you on restrictions,give it 4 weeks and you will have a job to put a fiver on,and totally agree they are turds possibly one of the worst accounting firms calling themselves bookmakers.

      1. Evening Colin.

        I wouldn’t say my betting patterns have changed too much and if they have I’d go as far as to say they have got better for example I used to bet the evening before but nowadays I’ll only bet on the morning of race day. The only thing I could think of is I use them quite a lot as they offer enhanced places on a lot of the big races so i tend to use them whenever they offer the extra place. I still have a few other bookies left so it’s a case of taking my buisness elsewhere.

        1. I watched an interview with the CEO of skybet a few weeks ago and more than once he said it was their policy to actively weed out winning/savvy punters. ‘Our shareholders would expect nothing else’ or words to that effect the smug bastard.

      2. Like I said a few months ago I don’t recognise sky bet as a bookmaker and any tipster that advises their prices and extra place concessions are having a laugh because they will cut you off

  15. Hello, since we are talking about following tipster/strategies, does anyone have records of following any of Josh’s strategies? As far as i understand , i should follow S6 for flat and S1 and S2A for jumps?

    1. Hi there. If you click on the Links in Section 1 above where it says “HERE>>>” in red text, you can find summaries of Josh’s results for Flat and Jumps. Flat only applies to turf flat and doesn’t include AW.

  16. Eaton Miller Southwell 13:50 1pt e/w-16/1-Looked overpriced considering he has placed in each of his last 3 races. The form of his 3rd 2 starts ago has particularly worked out well with the first 2 winning twice each since. Also each of the trainers last 3 runs which actually ran their races have all placed so the yard is in solid form. I suspect he might have needed it LTO and should come on for it. Trainer and jockey are 3/5 over hurdles at the track and 9/59, 20p +30.8 over hurdles in general.
    Fayez Lingfield 14:40 1.5pt win-12/1-I don’t get how this one is the outsider of the field. He won the race last year off 2lbs higher last year. Two starts ago he won with first time cheekpieces despite getting away slowly. After being taken off last time they return here. Trainer and jockey are 5/11, 8p in handicaps at the track in the past 3 years. I think this has been the plan and expect him to go very close.

  17. i have been a member of this site almost from its inception and i enjoy members comments and their tips be it winners or losers(much prefer winners},to me R.T.P. is the best value site/blog for the ordinary punter and josh deserves great recognition for all his hard work ln making this(in my opinion the best in britain)

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