Members Daily Post: 13/11/18 (complete)

Section 1 (complete), test zone

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack

2.Any Tips/Notes (Daily Tips/Festival Tips/other thoughts)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack

 

Huntingdon

2.10 – Distingo  (HcH, micro’s distance and age)  w2  H3 6/1 

 

Lingfield

2.20 – Argyle   (micro runs) 5/1 

3.50 – Britanio Bello   (micro runs) 9/1 

 

Hereford

No stats profile for 2018/19 

 

2.Any Tips/Notes (Daily Tips/Festival Tips/other thoughts)

None.

 

3.Micro System Test Zone

Flat 

The Doyler 

4.15 Chelm- Regular  4/1 

Jumps

R Hobson (33/1< guide EW) 

2.30 Here – Eureu Du Boulay 20/1 

Autumn Trainers

2.30 Here – Irish Prophecy (14/1<) 3/1 

3.30 Here – De Rasher Counter (14/1<) 5/1 

Fact Sheet 2018/19 

LTO winning trainers

4.00 Here – Court Royale 5/2 

Trainers to Follow

3.40 Hunt – Shpadoinkle Day (11/1< guide) 5/1 

 

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

Arrived in Vegas just fine, 9.10pm our time as I type, 5.10 Am your time. Let the fun begin. The New York New York Casino looks a slight upgrade on Yarmouth 🙂

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

42 Responses

  1. U.S. Racing Tips – Del Mar race 6, 11.00 UK time, Pioneer Of The West, 1 point win at 11/2.

    Good luck.

  2. Slaving over a hot keyboard all day and after comparing the results the adjusting the margin %age approach doesn’t appear to make a great deal of difference. It’s kind of a swings and roundabouts effect in that you get more winners but that is offset to a lesser extent by the extra losers. So all in all a minor improvement if I take it down to around the +30% mark. Was about to call it a day when I decided to try the NR =< BFSP test on the data. This is the same utility I use to test any sample data I collect from regular posters, I last used it on Ken's method of AW selection with favourable results as some of you may remember.

    Anyway…. with almost 4 years of records to go at it makes a significant improvement when applied to this particular subset sample. Increase of 6.7 % to the overall strike rate along with a 36% increase in ROI. So this has to be the way to go for the trial. As far as the 2nd and 3rd choice go it's not so impressive in terms of any improvement, but that's most likely down to the fact that most all of these bets are already included as they tend to go off at the larger odds any way. It makes sense that my preferred horse is the one that is most likely to be favoured by the market given that we are all using the same sources for our information. So happy with the logic too.

    I'm gonna run an extra test run of NR =< BFSP +1 just to validate the test later tonight and will give you the final update along with the selections about 12.00 tomorrow.

  3. Neachells Bridge Hereford 13:00 1pt e/w Price available 7/1
    Pointed And Sharp Hereford 15:00 1pt e/w Price available 10/1

      1. The Mazur money was down there! You need to keep it up now though as my wife has started Christmas shopping and we need to fund that.

        1. Not quite lol. Got tipped up by 3 people in the space of 15 mins this morning which killed the price. Only nibbled last night.

      2. Quality as always mate!!!

        Next time your in London, let me know. Will sort the drinks etc!

        The following I copied off the Sporting life regarding Western Ryder.

        WESTERN RYDER – 3.00 Cheltenham, Sunday
        He has the right kind of profile for the Greatwood Hurdle and it’s been the plan to start him off here for a while now. He had an away day last week with Theatre Territory and had a pleasing gallop. It was just putting the finishing touches to him and he’s breezed again this morning (Tuesday); he’s another that goes well fresh. He’s bang on target and, as I’ve said in the past, was a bit unlucky not to go closer in the Sky Bet Supreme at the Festival, and he seems better at home this year. It’ll be his first run in a handicap but his form suggests 145 is a good mark, while he’s also won at Cheltenham before. So he ticks a lot of boxes, with the ground likely to be perfect for him, so it’s now a question of whether or not he’s good enough on the day.

      1. In fairness I would have also tipped up De Rasher as well but after Sunday I was a little bit more deliberate and by the time I decided to tip him he was 5/1 which I thought was a little short. Given the current price I was in error!

        1. Was going to tip both of them last night, where the prices were 9/1 with PP for Pointed and 7/1 for DeRasher, got sidetracked with something and then woke up this morning doing a Homer Simpson Doh! when saw they were 8 and 5`s respectively, thought, blow it after yesterday and not backing Ryalex…we shall see.

  4. minus 3 pts from selections yesterday so hope it is not three times unlucky…same caveats about being cautious apply if playing..Qualifiers:
    14.40. Hunt. Azure Fly
    14.50. Ling. Savello
    Gd Lck.

  5. Morning,

    Forgot to put up yesterday due to a lapse in my concentration, had Ryalex and Rainy City, but, when Rainy Cities early price went, I thought stuff it…then Ryalex goes and absolutely annihilates the field. Ah well, you live and learn.
    Onto today`s..
    15:00 @Hereford
    THE DRONE 7/1 gen 1pt win
    POINTED AND SHARP 8/1 1pt win
    15:30 @Hereford
    DE RASHER COUNTER 5/1 1pt win
    CONNA CROSS 13/2 1pt win

    Good luck and hope all horses and jockeys come back safe and sound.

    1. Stats from last week,

      28 bets 4 winners 1 place…
      +2.45 pts profit at EP
      -5.1 pts loss at SP

      running totals

      41 bets 8 wins
      +16.45 pts profit at EP
      +3.4 pts profit at SP.

      Slight loss at SP after a terrible weekend, blame the flat for that, but, onwards and upwards!
      If I would just stick to the jumps…haha.

  6. One Race Trace qualifier – Stuart Edmunds is 2/2 in the 1.10 Huntingdon. Red Royalist is 6/1.
    Edmunds also 3/7 with novice hurdlers at Huntingdon, Gethings/Edmunds 2/4 at Huntingdon this season 6/14 overall. Edmunds 8/29 with horses joining from other stables.
    Only concern is patchy form of stable and would like to see some money for it. 1pt win.
    To date 5 bets 1 win, +0.5.

  7. I am following recent losing tips but only for 2 more runs, but now that the turf flat has ended wondered whether to carry on with those coming out on the AW. sea fox 515 Chelmsford is an example from today. Any ideas?

    1. Hi Mick,
      I highlighted t’other day the profitability of the AW for recent tips although it is only a small sample. Not sure sticking to 2 runs is the way forward if following though. Check the weekly/monthly stats usually posted late on Mondays. There is no break down of AW in them and I won’t be going through a years stats to find them but recently they’ve gone well.
      Mike

  8. RECENT TIPS
    Daily
    He 2.30 – Eureu du Boulay on 3rd and 4th run @ 22
    He 3.00 – Oscar Sunset on 1st run @ 20
    Hu 1.40 – Midnight Gem on 5th run @ 7
    Festival
    C 5.15 – Sea Fox on 2nd run @ 5
    C 5.45 – Flying Tiger on 4th run @ 11/4
    GL

  9. GOLF BETS Free post not up yet
    RSM Classic
    Russell Henley 1 point ew 35/1 1/5 8 PP, 35/1 1/5 7, 33/1 1/5 7
    Coming into form at the right time where he plays the two courses at Sea Island well,with Bermuda grass and windy conditions having 4th,6th and 10th on his last three starts.
    Kevin Kisner 1 point ew 40/1 1/5 7 BF,SB, 35/1 1/5 8 35/1 1/5 7 BFSB, 33/1 1/5 7 CO
    Another who enjoys the conditions at Sea Island,having won in 2015 with the record score of 22,and he has finished 4th twice in 2014 and 2017.

    No more bets

      1. Nick with it being up yesterday decided to put Colins bets especially AW,hoping that after a week or so could attract a few new members,opportunity missed then.

        At least yesterdays free post bets showed a 40% profit from 1 winner from 5.

  10. COLINS BETS
    Chelmsford
    6.15 The Eagles Nest BOG 9/2
    7.15 Sparkalex BOG 16/1

    ELITE BETS
    3.30 Hereford Opening Batsman BOG 20/1

      1. Always been a class act,becoming long in the tooth at 12 years of age and his trainer Harry Fry is no fool,he would retire him if he declined to much.
        Not had the fastest start with Elite but it will come and a couple of fair priced winners will put us in profit.

        4 winners from 20 bets
        Bookmakers SP – 2.8 points
        BOG – 1/2 point

  11. Usually on the free site.
    NH
    He 4.00 – Cougar Kid @ 8

    info/test
    He 1.00 – Kilcullen Bellamy @ 16
    He 3.00 – Larch Hill @ 16
    He 3.30 – Too Many Diamonds @ 13/2
    Hu 2.10 – Distingo @ 8
    L 2.50 – Kilinakin @ 40
    L 3.50 – General Bux@ 2
    C 5.15 – Albishr @ 18
    C 7.15 – No More Commisery @ 14

  12. I have decided to pop my head above the parapet with the National Hunt.

    I’ll keep records to BFSP but also put up price at time of selection. All bets will be to 1pt win or e/w

    Lingfield 3.20
    1pt e/w Notre Ami 8/1 generally 8.5 in places.
    Hugh

  13. Apologies to anyone who follows my selections for no post yesterday, took a couple of days to come to a decision on where my selections are going.

    Unfortunately I have come to the decision to pause my selections. I’ve had a tough month or so where the profit has not really come and the main reason I feel for that is my work commitments. Since mid October I been required to do the same amount of work to get the selections as before but with less time and I feel that has affected my ability to pick the right horse in a race.

    I plan to get back to posting selections once my work commitments come back down but that does not look like happening until well into next year. It’s such a great community here and I plan to contribute whenever possible but just not the regular basis I have been doing since June.

    So I sign off ” Chris M Selections” with 41pts of profit , strike rate of 17.56% and ROI of 8.77% since mid June. To be honest, when I started posting if someone had told me I would still be in the green come November I would have been more than happy so I feel like leaving it here rather than seeing potentially more decline in those figures seems the right thing to do.

    I look forward to following regular tipsters and also some of the newcomers over the next few months 🙂

    1. very open and honest dialogue Chris, I hope work doesn’t get on top of you and you continue to contribute to the forum

      All the best
      Paul

    2. Well done to date Chris. I fully understand your reasons for taking a break. Hopefully you’ll be back soon.

  14. Emma levelle handicappers still trucking along, I have 41 points profit over the past three months. Today she has:

    2.30 Hereford, Irish Prophecy and 3.30 Hereford, Pointed And Sharp.

    Karl Burke all weather runners on the all weather are 41.25 points since March. Today he has

    4.45 Chelmsford, Assimile and 6.15 Chelmsford, Guvenor’s Choice.

    Good luck.

  15. On the minutes today so will put first one up here now and the rest below in the next 15 minutes.

    Ling’ 12.50….. What A Hoot…… 7.4

  16. Tuesday’s possibilities….
    Ling’ 1.20…… Cavok (2nd Pref’)…. 12.0
    Hunt’ 2.10 …. Distingo……………. 6.2
    Here 2.30 ….. Going Gold………… 7.4
    Ling’ 2.50…. Broughton’s Rhythm 6.2
    Ling’ 3.20 ……Notre Ami…………. 11.0
    Here’ 4.00…….Court Royale………. 11.0
    Chel’ 5.45 ……Jamabiya…………… 8.6
    Chel’ 6.15 ……Governor’s Choice.. 9.8

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