Members Daily Post: 12/11/18 (complete)

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack

2.Any Tips/Notes (Daily Tips/Festival Tips/other thoughts)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack

All now ‘Jumps’ for the foreseeable future…

Kempton

3.30 – 

Angles Antics (hncp chase + micro TJC) (added info- hncp debut) G3 9/2 

Song Saa (m age) 14 H3 8/1 

4.00 – Celestial Path (m class) w2 14 8/1 

 

Carlisle

2.05 – Russian Royale (hncp h) I3 11/2 

 

Irish Bonus Stats 

3.35 Thurles – Thisonesforollie (hncp h) 14 4/1

 

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KEY

H1/H3= HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)

G1/G3 = Geegeez GoldSpeed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated

I1/I3 =  Inform Racing Speed Ratings – Top Rated or Top 3

14,30 = Geegeez Goldtrainer form’ indicators14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr3010+ runs last 30 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr

S1-S6 : S = ‘Strategy’ and refers to the ‘advised strategies’ in the link below. S1 = ‘Strategy 1’. Added on morning of racing along with the price. w1won last start.   w2won two starts ago (tracking as of 15th Feb 2018)

NEW! Welcome Video 2018/19>>>Watch HERE>>>

The Strategies: Where should you start? Some ideas HERE>>> 

‘Flat Strategies/results‘: Flat 2017 Read HERE>>>(updated to end Sept 2018)

‘Jumps Strategies/results’: Jumps 2017/18 Read HERE>>>(updated to end Sept 2018)

Research Articles: (TTP reports/Test Zone/Monthly Articles/Big Meetings Notes) READ HERE>>>

VIDEOS: Members Repository: HERE>>> . All Public (non members only) Videos HERE>>>

IMPORTANT: More Welcome Info  HERE>>> (please read) (inc must watch videos :)) 

Contact: email:  – info@racingtoprofit.co.uk  … or failing that… racingtoprofit@gmail.com 

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2.Any Tips/Notes (Daily Tips/Festival Tips/other thoughts)

Daily Tips(2017 Sept-Dec: 31/176, +110.75) (2018: 28/318,100p, -18.2) (1 point win /1 pt EW bets) Festival Tips (2018: +152)

Daily Tips

None today, and that will be it from me until a week Wednesday I suspect, on the tipping front. No doubt there will be profit galore in the comments, as always!

 

TEST Best of the Stats Quals? (11/33,16p, +16)

None.

 

3.Micro System Test Zone

Jumps

Autumn Trainers

4.00 Kemp – Blushing Red (14/1<) 11/2 

D McCain (14/1<) 

3.10 Carl – Rainy City 11/2 

Tom Lacey 

12.55 Carl – En Meme Temps 9/1

 

Fact Sheet 2018/19 

LTO winning trainers

1.15 Kemp – Railroad Junkie 7/1 

Trainers to follow 

2.55 Kemp – The Sweeney (14/1<, 6/1<best) 16/1 

4.00 Kemp – Blushing Red (as above) 6/1 

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Handicap Chase System Starting Points (10/1< best) 

3.30 Kemp – Marienstar 11/4 

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

Note… I fly to Vegas at 4pm UK time, arriving in Vegas at 6pm (1am UK time) or so. I should have Wifi on the plane I hope, so with any luck Tuesday’s first post will be complete within the first couple of hours of the flight/by 6pm your time as usual. You’ll have to bear with me in terms of timings for subsequent posts, but i’ll try and get plenty posted the evening before as standard, and by no later than 8am on the day of racing. I may try and fully complete a post the evening before, including evening prices etc. Anyway, i’ll do my best to ensure you don’t notice much different in terms of timings etc. 

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About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

29 Comments

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  • Sunday’s results….
    Navan 1.05 …… Aramon 12.0………… Win @ 10.7
    Navan 1.35 …… Dortmund Park 10.0. Lose @ 7.56
    Sand’ 2.20 …… Elegant Escape 7.6….. Win @ 4.9

    Tim 11/11/18 7:38 PM Reply


    • Hi Tim.

      I understand your picks rely on getting the price you say otherwise no bet but I wondered if you kept track of all your selections regardless of price? I’ve noticed you’ve hit on quite a few winning selections including some decent prices. Good luck with the future selections.

      jamiem 11/11/18 7:43 PM Reply


      • Jamie….. It’s a tough call really cos what I’m doing on here isn’t exactly the way I do it in real life. I work by doing all the analysis in the morning putting together a shortlist for every race I believe could offer an opportunity. I never look at the forecast or the actual betting until I’m finished. I stopped doing it a few years back cos I found that it influences me in terms of creating the short list. I then work out the odds I believe they should be which I accept is not an exact science, but you have to evaluate them in order to find the value. I then add a 50% margin to them so as to make sure they are well in my favour.

        Armed with my prices I then spend my time up and till the race starts trying to get on at the required minimum. Today for example I got on Aramon quite easily as it was trading around the 12.0 mark most all afternoon, was only when the on course bookies opened their market it shortened (as they all do) to some extent it seems these days. It did get back to 12.0 for a very short time but dropped back in to 10.7 shortly before the off. As for Elegant Issue that was 6.2 when I put it up on here and was hoping it might just creep out, but didn’t mainly due to Thomas Patrick drifting like a freight train I think. Either way 6.2 was the best price I saw on EE and I didn’t get on either.

        So having agreed that using BFSP is the fair way to define as to whether a bet is taken or not for results the only other way of doing it would be for me to put up the true chances assessment, (which I don’t mind doing), and allow folks to decide for themselves as to whether the odds on offer are worth the risk.

        Another thing that needs taking into account is that I rarely only have the one horse on the shortlist, so for me there are alternatives, but I know that things will get complicated if I start putting up more than the one selection for any given race. So I’m tending to go for the best one I have that I think is in with a chance of both winning and making the price even though some times I think that its chances of making the odds are probably slimmer than its chances of winning the race.

        Like I said it’s a tough call when you have to do it so far in advance of the race running, but I’m open to ideas if it improves my methods. This is why I keep calling it a ‘trial’.

        Tim 11/11/18 8:26 PM Reply


    • @ Tim, very good results on Sunday, good luck with the trial.

      general6969 12/11/18 9:05 AM Reply


  • Vegas is Vegas and any plans skate on thin ice! I have been a few times and these are my tips:

    Try to sleep at least 6 hours a day; Eat and drink off the strip rather than on it as it is cheaper and the quality does not drop; pace yourself and your money.
    There is a lot to do there apart from gamble. Last time I went I took my wife and she loved it despite not liking gambling.

    If anyone ever goes out there make the effort to fly down to the Grand Canyon National Park for the day and go off to The Hoover Dam for half a day at least. Both are truly spectacular.

    Good luck.

    martin colwell 11/11/18 8:10 PM Reply


    • went to LV a few years ago. Had a great time without gambling a single dollar. Grand canyon and Hoover dam both a must see and taking in a few shows. Rather play the horses than play machines or tables. You can easily get carried away on them. No need to gamble to enjoy LV

      enjoysummers 11/11/18 9:48 PM Reply


      • Thanks gents . Yep we’re not going out there to primarily gamble our savings away haha. Appears there is quite a lot to do besides that and we also have a wedding and finishing up in New Orleans. Not sure we will have time to see GN etc this time as trip condensed enough and in truth probably need a few more days out there than we have. But I’ll be back no doubt.

        Josh 12/11/18 11:18 AM Reply


  • Josh you work bloody hard for us, please do not feel obligated that you need to do what you do when you should be enjoying yourself in a fantastic place have a great time we will still be here when you get back, and if Nick carries on we will be richer too
    take care, and enjoy ” that’s an order “

    halstea 11/11/18 9:32 PM Reply


    • Have a great time. I’d love to be going back again – like Enjoysummers says, all the entertainment is free on the streets and in the upper floors of the gambling palaces. I was staggered first time I went to find Italian gondoliers sculling along a pretty good replica of the Grand Canal on the first floor of the Venetian, above dark exitless cavern of the gambling den below. The whole of the US southwest is native American reserves, and I’d recommend hiring a car and driving out beyond Boulder/ Hoover Dam eg to the Hualapai Reserve, down dirt tracks to the Colorado River – if you don’t want to make the longer excursion to the Grand Canyon. It’s a marvel that anyone ever eked an existence out of these drylands.

      manyanga 11/11/18 10:15 PM Reply


  • Nothing from me tomorrow

    Nick Mazur 11/11/18 10:05 PM Reply


  • RT +21.25
    No bet Monday from me.
    Have a great holiday Josh

    kevo19 12/11/18 12:03 AM Reply


  • no tips but i’m having a fun 50p ew patent on
    kempton 2-55 landin 40-1
    carlisle 2-05 trooblue 9-1
    carlisle 3-10 calivigny 13-2
    all prices bfsb

    martin whittle 12/11/18 12:12 AM Reply


  • Minus 3pts yesterday…selections disappointing so today is another tricky affair so extra caution advised. Qualifiers are all from Southwell so could be AW carnage:
    12.35. South. Showboating
    14.15. South. Sbrasse
    15.20. South. Love U Whatever. Gd lck if playing

    silver 12/11/18 12:38 AM Reply


  • Have a brilliant time bud. As already stated there are so many things to see and do besides gambling. Last time I went one of the highlights was dinner at the top of the stratosphere in a revolving restaurant!

    Thanks again for everything you do on here, I have and continue to learn so much and of course I never would have become involved in Blessed and Super were it not for you and this page!

    Enjoy!!!

    dougandnicky 12/11/18 6:49 AM Reply


    • Cheers Pal. Yep it’s not primarily a gambling focussed trip. A mixed group and two of them are getting married on Wednesday! Finishing up in New Orleans which will be great. Not sure we will have time to go and see the big sights such as GC but I suspect I’ll be back out there one day!

      Josh 12/11/18 11:15 AM Reply


  • a quick question,Loose Chips (hncp chase) I1 G3 7/1 S1+S5 (IF 11.00+ BFSP) ,i got matched at 11.0 anyone else ? which makes it a s1 & s5. does the price have to be generally available to be included in results?

    martin whittle 12/11/18 8:10 AM Reply


    • Hi Martin, those S1s (or S5s, which haven’t done that well as yet!) qualify two ways… 1 – they are 10/1 or bigger on morning prices that I add (and thus add an S1 next to them, and regardless of their price from that point, they qualify) or 2. If under 10/1 on morning odds, they qualify if 11.00 or bigger at BFSP. You can set a minimum BFSP price when placing a bet, of 11.00, and the best will only be matched if that price or bigger at the off. I can’t be advising strategies that require prices to be monitored, someone could look at this post at 8.30am if needs be and place all their strategy bets at that point in time and leave it for the day.
      Josh

      Josh 12/11/18 8:25 AM Reply


  • in these days of bookie slagging (quite rightly) it’s nice to be able to praise one, B365 actually emailed me to tell me i had a £15 risk free bet in the Kempton 2-55 because of their 4-1 feature race offer from yesterday 🙂

    martin whittle 12/11/18 8:20 AM Reply


    • B365 is top of the pile for me too. The only BOG bookie I have left apart from newcomer BlackType. I still receive regular £5 credits from them. What I like most is how well their software works…. and the fact they haven’t gubbed me!

      manyanga 12/11/18 8:26 AM Reply


  • With Josh being away and not expecting anything in the section 2 tips I was planning on taking a closer look through the micro systems in section 3. Can anyone recommend a particular feature / system within section 3 worth starting with?
    Thanks, Jack.

    JTJ 12/11/18 8:33 AM Reply


    • Hi Jack. The full results breakdown in the Key has most of test zone updated to end Sept bar the Fact Sheet which is now being tracked. The Tom Lacey one has proven itself to be solid I think but you can see the results in link above. Im cautious to advise backing any systematically and I need to see myself if I can make them work as starting points and landing on enough tipping wise. Section 3 is starting to look like a good source of winners so just a case of landing on enough. It’s not impossible that the fact sheet as a portfolio could be a 100+ a year approach as all angles very logically sound and some focus on horse being in form as much as the trainer. But it has to prove itself.
      I know what the next step should be and that’s applying some of the strategy /ratings pointers approach to the test zone but I’m not at that stage yet esp time wise !
      Josh

      Josh 12/11/18 11:06 AM Reply


  • RECENT TIPS
    Daily
    C 2.05 – Baby Tickler on 1st run @ 14
    S 12.05 – Break The Silence on 1st run @ 5
    S 12.35 – Weld al Emarat on 6th run @ 11/2
    ………….Maazel on 1st run @ 20
    Festival
    C 2.35 – Dolos on 3rd run @ 6/4
    3m+
    K 2.55 – Holly Bush Henry on 3rd run @ 20
    GL

    Titus 12/11/18 8:34 AM Reply


    • w/e 11/11 figs

      Daily runners = 38
      Winners = 5 @ bog 10, 10, 7, 7, 3, @ sp 10/3, 10/3, 6, 6, 11/4
      p/l @ bog + 3
      p/l @ sp – 12.59
      There were 3 / 0 plcs @ bog 12, 12, 14, @ sp

      Festival runners = 12
      Winners = 1 @ bog 8, @ sp 8
      p/l @ bog – 3
      p/l @ sp – 3
      There were 1/ 2 plcs @ bog 14 , @ sp 12, 12

      3m+ runners = 8
      Winners = 1 @ bog 7/2 , @ sp 6/5
      p/l @ bog – 3.5
      p/l @ sp – 5.8
      there were 0 / 1 plcs @ bog @ sp 16

      PLACES @ 10’s+ DO NOT INCLUDE WINS

      Titus 12/11/18 5:36 PM Reply


  • COLINS BETS
    Southwell
    12.35 Fieldsman BOG 12/1
    2.15 Buonarroti BOG 8/1
    2.15 The Last Debutante BOG 13/2
    2.45 Someone Exciting BOG 14/1
    3.20 Epitaph BOG 14/1

    ELITE BETS
    3.20 Southwell Karezak BOG 15/2

    cleafe 12/11/18 9:49 AM Reply


  • Irish trained runners in England and Wales –

    12.05 Sou, Earl Of Bunnacurry;
    2.05 Carlisle, Victoria Says and Hidden Dilemma.
    2.15 Southwell, Sbraase;

    This trial system runs until the end of November. To date it is minus 20.25 points.

    Other updates:

    Trainers with a 33% win strike rate in the past 30 days with at least 5 runners – Minus 4.5 points. I am running this system until end 2018.

    U.S. Racing Tips – + 40.5 points. I have become more selective with these tips. I will run them until end 2018 and then decide whether to continue.

    Golf Tips (on the free blog) – + 79 points. This one ticks over nicely.

    martin colwell 12/11/18 10:57 AM Reply


  • I’m following Josh and Nick today with no selections either. I already know that it doesn’t pay for me to get involved in poor quality events and there every shortlist looks like the RP betting forecast today, so I know it doesn’t bode well when that happens. I might spend a couple of hours reviewing the trial cos I’ve already given it some thought.

    The problem as I see it is down to the difference in approach. With the trial I am being forced into narrowing it down to just the one horse whereas with the original method I take a shortlist of usually 2, sometimes 3 possibilities (after I’ve removed the really short odds horses), and shop for the best deal. Naturally there is almost always a preferred horse, which checking back turns out to be 29 times from the 35 runners I’ve put up on here.

    Right now I’m applying the same margin of +50% across the shortlist irrespective of as to which I prefer. This came about because I found that it helped to prevent ending up with 2 qualifying horses in the same race but that is not the case for the trial given that there is always only the one horse.

    So I’ll have a play with the margins on the spreadsheet this afternoon to see how far I can push the first choice horse but, I have to admit to having done this before and it always ends up on having to miss out on some of the winners.

    Some famous gambler once said…. ‘no matter what you do you can never have all the winners’. Can’t remember his name though!

    Tim 12/11/18 11:56 AM Reply


  • NICE ……….. nice winner for the autumn trainer angle there .. great ride from young patrick cowley from the front !

    wd
    gb

    GEORGE B 12/11/18 4:12 PM Reply


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