Members Daily Post: 10/11/18 (complete)

Section 1 (complete), test zone , Badger Ales shortlist

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack

2.Any Tips/Notes (Daily Tips/Festival Tips/other thoughts)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack

FLAT

Doncaster

11.45 – Tangled   (micro age) 8/1 

2.45 –

Shady McCoy   (all Hc’s) H1 G3 7/2 S2 

Daniels Flyer   ( micro age) 9/1 

 3.15 –

Restorer   (all Hc’s)  w1 25/1

Reshoun   (all Hc’s)  w1 H3 11/1 

Baydar   (all Hc’s) 14/1 

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JUMPS

Aintree

2.40 –

Hells Kitchen   (micro class)  w2 14 G3 10/3

3.20 –

Baby King   (micro class) w1 H3 G1  13/2 S1 (IF 11.00+ BFSP)

Luckofthedraw   (micro runs) w1 H3 I3 4/1 

 

Kelso 

12.15 – Horst   (nov HcCh) w1 7/1 

12.45 – Landecker   (micro runs) 7/1 

 2.30 –

Mighty Thunder   (micro TJC) H3 7/2 

Bennys Secret   (micro distance) G3 10/1 S1 S2 

 3.05 – Simone   (nov HcCh) H1 11/4 

 

Wincanton

1.15 –

Skellig Rocks   (micro’s distance and age) 12/1 S2 

Leg Lock Luke   (HcCh) ES+ G1 9/1 S3A . S1 (IF 11.00+ BFSP)

1.50 –

If You Say Run   (micro hc debut) 30 H3 G1 2/1 

Talent To Amuse  (HcH, micro +c) 14,30 12/1 S2 

3.35 –

El Bandit   (micro Hc debut) w1 30 6/1

Kings Lad   (HcCh) w2  ES+ H1 I3 G3 16/1 S1 S2A S3A# S4 

On Demand   (HcCh) w2  ES+  28/1 S3A

 

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KEY

H1/H3= HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)

G1/G3 = Geegeez GoldSpeed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated

I1/I3 =  Inform Racing Speed Ratings – Top Rated or Top 3

14,30 = Geegeez Goldtrainer form’ indicators14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr3010+ runs last 30 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr

S1-S6 : S = ‘Strategy’ and refers to the ‘advised strategies’ in the link below. S1 = ‘Strategy 1’. Added on morning of racing along with the price. w1won last start.   w2won two starts ago (tracking as of 15th Feb 2018)

NEW! Welcome Video 2018/19>>>Watch HERE>>>

The Strategies: Where should you start? Some ideas HERE>>> 

‘Flat Strategies/results‘: Flat 2017 Read HERE>>>(updated to end Sept 2018)

‘Jumps Strategies/results’: Jumps 2017/18 Read HERE>>>(updated to end Sept 2018)

Research Articles: (TTP reports/Test Zone/Monthly Articles/Big Meetings Notes) READ HERE>>>

VIDEOS: Members Repository: HERE>>> . All Public (non members only) Videos HERE>>>

IMPORTANT: More Welcome Info  HERE>>> (please read) (inc must watch videos :)) 

Contact: email:  – info@racingtoprofit.co.uk  … or failing that… racingtoprofit@gmail.com 

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2.Any Tips/Notes (Daily Tips/Festival Tips/other thoughts)

Daily Tips(2017 Sept-Dec: 31/176, +110.75) (2018: 28/318,100p, -18.2) (1 point win /1 pt EW bets) Festival Tips (2018: +152)

Daily Tips

None, I have actually flicked through all the jumps quals on this page and nothing really jumps out at me, at the prices. No doubt i’ll be wrong about one or two but didn’t wish to tip any.

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Friday summed up my iffy form really. Plenty of positives, namely the stats in general in both section 1 and 3 are finding plenty of winners. (albeit not for the main strategies, with many on a bit of a losing run, but that’s why you must have adequate banks and start small) Sadly in two of the five races I looked at (inc Test below) I picked the wrong sodding one. I’m pleased to see that as so often a few of you good members made the right choice in the comments. You’re a wiser bunch than I at the moment. The 14/1 2nd at Hexham was just painful, esp given my run, having looked like she would swoop into the lead but just couldn’t get stay past the winner who dug in. Still, more positives there and that’s the sort of profile that should bring me joy if I can find some focus. One of you emailed me with the firm belief that I spread myself too thin and it’s no surprise the big odds tipping has taken a hit. He’s probably right. I’ll see what I can do about that. Jonjo’s – he’ll win a chase on his next three starts I suspect, esp if they have more confidence in the horse and race him more prominently. You get what you deserve when holding up an inexperienced chaser, esp at Warwick. Just moronic. Still, both comfortably beat SP, halving in price, but a winner or ten would be welcome now. 

 

TEST Best of the Stats Quals? (11/32,15p, +17)

None, again none of the shorter priced ones looked that exciting. One Night In Milan may be the best of them but he’s up another 6lb and 5/2 felt about right, but he shouldn’t be far away as that doesn’t look the strongest race. 

 

3.Micro System Test Zone

FLAT

The Doyler

12.20 Donc – Purbeck Hills 4/1 

12.55 Donc – The Night Watch 11/2 

 

JUMPS

Paddy Brennan (14/1< guide) 

12.15 Kelso – Aristo Du Plessis 5/1 

1.20 Kelso – Jovial Joey 3/1 

3.05 Kelso- Troubled Soul 2/1 

A Honeyball Mares 

1.50 Winc – G For Ginger (10/1< guide) 12/1 

Autumn Trainers

1.15 Winc – Buster Thomas (14/1<) 7/2 

 

Jumps Fact Sheet 2018/19 

Trainers To Follow (Lacey/Lavelle/Dalgleish) 

1.55 Kel – Monsieur Co (11/1< guide) 11/4 

2.30 Kel – One Night In Milan (as above) 5/2

3.40 Kel – Glorious Lady (as above) 13/8 

1.50 Winc – Talent To Amuse (14/1<, 6/1< best) 12/1 

LTO Winning Trainers

3.20 Aint – Theflyingportrait 8/1 

2.40 Aint – Candy Burg (8/1<) 14/1 

Jockeys/Chases

1.15 Winc – Skellig Rocks (16/1<) 12/1 

2.40 Aint- Warriors Tale (9/1< best) 12/1 

3.20 Aint – Mcgroarty (9/1< best) 8/1 

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

Stats/Trends: Wincanton/Cheltenham Nov Meeting: Read HERE>>

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Badger Ales ‘Shortlist’

Well this isn’t the strongest stats profile in the world, as above in the link, so should be treated with some caution. 

Those carrying 11-7 less (exc claims) / Max dist RUN 3m1.5f or further/Top 4 LTO or Did not complete… that leaves 10/49,19p, +60 the last 10 years… that only removes 7 runners, leaving…

El Bandit / Bigbadjohn/Captain Bucks/Fingerontheswitch/Sam Red/Sumkindofking/Belmount/Aunty Ann/Dancing Shadow

Those that WON on their last start are 5/10 in the last decade. Positives for El Bandit / BigBadJohn/Aunty Ann/Fingerontheswitch/Sam Red 

Those with a win in last 3 starts from that list above : El Bandit / BigBadJohn/Aunty Ann/Fingerontheswitch/Sam Red / Belmount/ Sumkindofking 

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Blessed To Empress... forgot to mention she’s running in the 7pm Chelsmford in what could be her last race for us, before being sold in a broodmares sale 🙁 . I can’t make it sadly, nor if she runs one final time next Friday which is a possibility. I haven’t looked at the race in depth but the fav looks hard to beat to my eyes, and I suspect the rest are playing for places. She is up in class and may find this too hot but will give her all as always, and you never know! Not one to have a wager on I doubt, not sure, but of course being a shareholder I’ll find it hard to resist an interest EW nibble! 🙂 

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

50 Responses

  1. I am being treated to a nice meal tonight but looked at one race so a couple now and rest in the morning:
    My Lord and Master Doncaster 15:15 1pt e/w-Will record to 9/1 5 places
    Grey Britain Doncaster 15:15 1pt e/w-Will record to 33/1 5 places

    1. It was me….and he ate a lot!!!!

      I am on Grey Britain at 40/1. I did like My Lord And Master anyway and so am on as well.

      Good luck.

      1. Well you kept telling me to order more and food is a definite weakness of mine particularly when it’s that good. Will go again. Thanks again for the meal mate.

    2. blimey .. wakey wakey .. that’s the first leg of my super fandango goliath romped in .. thanks nick …. you make an impossible dream seem possible 🙂

      it just doesn’t get any better than this for me 🙂

      thanks top work
      gb

    3. Big thank you for today nick. Really appreciate all the hard work you put in . From write ups to tips. You are one top class tipster .

  2. Friday’s Results……

    Font’ 1.50….Dino’s Benefit…… 7.0…. Won @ 8.65
    War’ 2.00….Huntsman’s Son… 6.5…. L @ 8.8
    Font’ 2.25….Waiheke…………… 10.5..L @ 9.0
    Newc’ 6.45…Playmate…………. 9.5….L @ 19.9

    R/T……….. 2 W.. 7 L.. + 21.05

  3. Evening,

    As per usual with the flat I’m taking 3 into the big one and probably still won’t come close and unfortunately it’s one of Nicks tips, sorry Nick…
    Anyway hoping the jumpers will swell my coffers even if the flat ones go down the pan..
    14:40 @Aintree
    Romain De Sonaim 11/2 gen 1pt win
    Warriors Tale 14/1 PP 1/2 pt ew
    15:15 @Doncaster
    MyLordandMaster 9/1 1pt win
    Reshoun 12/1 1/2pt ew
    Everythingforyou 16/1 1/2pt ew
    15:35 @Wincanton
    BigBadJohn 9/1 1pt win
    Captain Bucks 11/1 1pt win

    Good luck and hope all horses and jockeys come back safe and sound!

    1. Today was my famine day . Had to come and luckily got on Lady Freyja, like i have said before, different gravy that fella!!
      Onto tomorrow…
      Helluva ride from Bryony Frost though, some jockey she is, with or without that claim she is something special!

  4. minus 3.5 pts. yesterday, with Little Choosey winning at 15/2 SP but not a big enough price to offset the losing bets…both Dartford Warbler and Frank The Slink were a tad unlucky for one of them not to win with both placing in the same race but were 7/1 and 17/2 so no place points as win only bets….Today’s Qualifiers below…as usual caution advised if playing:
    11.45. Donc. Withernsea
    14.40. Aint. Romain De Senam
    15.15. Donc. Baydar
    19.00. Chel. Young John
    19.30. Chel. Squire
    Gd Lck

  5. The first Race Trace qualifiers for a few days:
    3.20 Aintree Baby King 7-1 (Tom George has won the race twice from three runners)
    11.45 Don – Tough Remedy 13-2 (Keith Dalgleish 2/2)
    2.25 Winc – Secret Investor 13-8 (Paul Nicholls 6/10)
    1 pt win each. So far 2 bets +3.5

  6. two for today,
    Doncaster 3-15. Lorelina 33-1 WH 7 places, the step up to 1m6f lto didn’t work but goes back to 1m4f where she scored a hat trick of wins this summer looks fairly treated and William Cox’s claim will help.
    Wincanton 3-35. Kings Lad 16-1 sky 5 places, made a couple of early errors lto in the Sodexo gold cup but won a very competitive class 2 before that. goes on any ground.
    both 1/2 pt ew.

  7. I really cant find anything I like over the jumps today so just the one more:

    Lady Freyja Doncaster 11:45 1pt e/w

    1. Ha ha you are a legend indeed. I hope there are no undercover bookies on here or you’ll be head hunted at this rate and I don’t think i can afford that to happen. Seriously though, fantastic stuff mate. thank you

    2. Boom Boom Boom….he won too easy mate!

      Find those that get up in a photo to keep under the bookies radar.

    3. Great start Nick with Lady F, sadly I missed this post, but did back it from another source. So not too bad.

      I only missed your post by 10 mins as I have been busy. As usual thanks for your terrific selections.

    4. Sir Nick

      You are a legend! Booom what a great start to a busy Saturday of racing. Thanks very much always appreciated.

      Cheers

      Steve

        1. FFS, me and my mate who are members on here were playing footy for our over 40s team and missed it. Brilliant stuff again tho Nick.

  8. RECENT TIPS
    Daily
    D 11.45 – Kings Pavilion on 2nd run @ 14
    D 2.45 – Danielsflyer on 6th run @ 9
    A 2.40 – Warriors Tale on 3rd run @ 12
    …………Some Invitation on 1st run @ 10
    K 3.05 – Avondhu Pearl on 2nd run @ 14
    W 1.15 – Forth Bridge on 1st run @ 9/2
    W 3.00 – Air Horse One on 2nd and 5th run @ 25
    ………….John Constable on 1st run @ 33
    W 3.35 – Ramses de Teille on 1st run @ 9
    Festival
    W 3.00 – Smaoineamh Alainn on 2nd run @ 28
    N 1.05 – Mastermind on 5th run @ 40
    N 3.25 – Burren Life on 2nd run @ 14
    …………Discorama on 2nd run @ 13/2
    C 6.00 – Making Miracles on 2nd run @ 9
    3m+
    A 1.35 – Regal Encore on 1st run @ 16
    N 12.30 – Arkwright on 6th run @ 66
    GL

  9. COLINS BETS
    Doncaster
    11.45 Presidential BOG 9/2
    11.45 Roller BOG 11/1
    3.15 Eddystone Rock BOG 12/1
    Wincanton
    3.35 Kings Lad BOG 20/1
    3.35 Belmount BOG 25/1

    ELITE BETS
    Wincanton
    1.50 G For Ginger BOG 14/1
    Aintree
    2.40 War Sound BOG 6/1
    Doncaster
    2.45 Fire Brigade BOG 15/2
    3.15 Hochfield BOG 25/1

  10. COLINS BETS
    November
    Bookmakers SP + 8.5 points all 1 point win
    BOG + 13.5 points profit all 1 point win

    ELITE BETS
    Bookmakers SP + 1/2 point all at 1 point win
    BOG + 2.25 points profit all at 1 point win
    2 winners from 8 bets

  11. Chris M Selections
    Wincanton:
    15:35 – Kings Lad (18/1 gen)

    Aintree:
    15:20 – Theflyingportrait (10/1 gen)

    Doncaster:
    15:15 – Eddystone Rock (12/1 gen)

    As I scrolled down the page to post these I see Colin has already tipped 2 of my 3, so apologies for making them losers Colin….. Good luck with any bets today 🙂

  12. Saturday’s possibilities…..

    Kelso 12.15…..Horst…………. 9.5
    Naas 12.25…..Saint Calvados 7.5
    Aint’ 1.00…One For The Team 10.0
    Naas 1.05..Espoir D’Allen….. 7.0
    Kelso 1.20…Fixed Rate………. 8.0
    Winc’ 2.25…Majestic Moll….. 7.5
    Winc’ 3.00…Redicean……….. 12.0
    Aint’ 3.55…Montego Grey…. 10.0

    That’s all for jumps but might have a couple for Chelmsford this evening, just not had time to get through them all yet. So check back about 4.30 if you’re interested.

  13. What more can I add to what has already been said Nick, other than thank you once again. Different class !!

    Chris R.

  14. tough to go against Nick but To be wild in the 3.15 is considered a group horse that needs give. Its drifted on betfair which seems to be happening more and more nowadays and can be backed at 20s+ 3s 5 places.
    3.15 Donc To be wild 1 pt ew 20s+ 5 places
    4.30 Chelms Tobeornotobe 1 pt ew 5s
    0.5 ew double 16s @ 5s BFSB

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