Members Daily Post: 09/11/18 (complete)

Daily tips x2, test tips x3, Section 1 (complete), test zone

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack

2.Any Tips/Notes (Daily Tips/Festival Tips/other thoughts)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack

JUMPS

Warwick

2.30 – Finleys Eyes (micro dist) (added info- hncp debut) H3 4/1 UP

3.05 – Travertine (all hncps+ m class/class move) 14 ES+ I3 12/1 S2 S3A S5 UP

3.35 – 

Foundation (all hncps + m class) 14 ES+ 10/1 S2 S3A UP

Jarlath (m class) H3 6/1 WON 6/1>5/1

Modeligo (m class) 33/1 UP

Too Much Too Soon (m dist) H1 I3 11/4 UP

4.05 – 

Anightinlambourn (NHF) 9/2 

Printing Dollars (NHF) 14 13/2  WON 13/2>5/1

 

Hexham

3.15 – Arizona Bound (m class) 10/3 

3.45 – 

Chanceiton (m class/class move/runs) w1 H1 9/2  UP

Only Orvieto (m runs) 30 14/1 S2 2nd 7/1 

 

Fontwell

2.20 – 

Secret Door (all hncps) 10/3 UP

She’s Gina (m TJC) w1 I1 G1 5/1 UP

Poetic Lady (hncp h) ES+ G3 14/1 S1 S2 S3A 

3.25 – 

Sound of Italy (hncp c) w1 ES+ H3 I3 10/11 S3A#

Hard To Rock (m TJC) w2 H3 I3 6/1 S5 (IF 11.00+ BFSP)

 

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KEY

H1/H3= HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)

G1/G3 = Geegeez GoldSpeed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated

I1/I3 =  Inform Racing Speed Ratings – Top Rated or Top 3

14,30 = Geegeez Goldtrainer form’ indicators14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr3010+ runs last 30 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr

S1-S6 : S = ‘Strategy’ and refers to the ‘advised strategies’ in the link below. S1 = ‘Strategy 1’. Added on morning of racing along with the price. w1won last start.   w2won two starts ago (tracking as of 15th Feb 2018)

NEW! Welcome Video 2018/19>>>Watch HERE>>>

The Strategies: Where should you start? Some ideas HERE>>> 

‘Flat Strategies/results‘: Flat 2017 Read HERE>>>(updated to end Sept 2018)

‘Jumps Strategies/results’: Jumps 2017/18 Read HERE>>>(updated to end Sept 2018)

Research Articles: (TTP reports/Test Zone/Monthly Articles/Big Meetings Notes) READ HERE>>>

VIDEOS: Members Repository: HERE>>> . All Public (non members only) Videos HERE>>>

IMPORTANT: More Welcome Info  HERE>>> (please read) (inc must watch videos :)) 

Contact: email:  – info@racingtoprofit.co.uk  … or failing that… racingtoprofit@gmail.com 

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2.Any Tips/Notes (Daily Tips/Festival Tips/other thoughts)

Daily Tips(2017 Sept-Dec: 31/176, +110.75) (2018: 28/318,100p, -18.2) (1 point win /1 pt EW bets) Festival Tips (2018: +152)

Daily Tips

2.20 Font – Poetic Lady – 1 point win – 14/1 (gen)Non runner

3.05 War – Travertine – 1 point win – 10/1 (gen) UP

3.45 Hex – Only Orveito – 1 point win – 12/1 (gen) 2nd 7/1, close.

that’s all, 08.52, write ups…

Travertine – well Jonjo is in superb form and hopefully this one can continue his run, before the wheels come off again. He ticks a lot of decent trainer stats against the stats pack, he’s unexposed over fences, this being his second chase run and first handicap chase. He ran well last time, facing horses rated 10-15lb superior to him at Hereford but was close enough to Scoop The Pot who franked the from in that decent enough C3 at Exeter. He probably would have been ahead of him but for two errors at the 2nd and 3rd last when booted into them. He drops in class here, Kennedy keeps the ride which is a positive in that he knows the horse. Given Hughes has the McCain job now, he may be doing more riding out at others etc and it will be interesting to see who uses him. The CP return, which he’s placed in twice before and may help him focus and his only win was going LH, so that may help. Bar those two fences he generally jumped well LTO having watched it back, travelling strongly, and at least he arrives fit and in some sort of form. This looked a weak enough race to my eyes with plenty having questions to answer also and he could just be better than this lot. I’m not 100% sure he’s well handicapped but chasing could be his calling and he has some decent enough runs to his name. You’d like to see some money come but that isn’t essential for Jonjo at this track, or in general in these colours actually, but it’s never a negative. He was worth a go at the prices to my eyes. Irish Octave is interesting but I thought 6s only fair for one that is a proper hold up horse, can hit a flat spot, and comes with a late rattle. He’s gone well in the past before, and may well fly home again, but I was happy to leave. I wanted a shade bigger given his running style.

Only Orveito – well if her new yard every find the key she should prove well handicapped. She won her bumper for Ruth Jefferson and ran very well in a Carlisle novice hurdle over a trip too short. She was 5th beaten 17L but all the horses in front, a few behind, have gone on to much better things, many rated mid 120s, some low 130s. This is her third run for the yard, second of the season, she’s unexposed in handicaps, and she returns to the track she ran at LTO, so knows it well enough now. She ran there as if well worth a go at this trip – the hope is that she improves for this now and the CP also return, used by previous connections. She responded for pressure LTO when outpaced and the horse in front of her LTO has won since. So, there’s some substance there. She also drops into a C5 handicap for the first time, and  a weak enough one on paper at that.  Walford is 5/24,9p all handicap hurdles here in the last 5 years, 4/16,8p all runners the last year, he’s 3/15,7p all runners in the last month and 5/21,10p in all handicaps at the track with Hamilton on. I thought she was well worth a go at double figures. Of course she may not stay, but like a few unexposed winning handicappers in the last couple of days (Scudamore chaser at Market Rasen, Sherwood’s C2 hncp winner at Newbury) hopefully she improves for this step up. Chanceiton has an inexperienced jockey on (yet to win a race/not many rides) which put me off at the prices but is in form, also drops in class and stays. And Top Billing would be of some interest also. Those two look the main dangers to my eyes.

 

TEST Best of the Stats Quals? (11/32,15p, +17)

2.20 Font – Secret Door – 11/4 (gen) UP

2.30 War – Finleys Eyes – 4/1 9bet365/Lad/coral) 7/2 (gen) UP

3.35 War – West Wizard – 4/1 (gen) 2nd

that’s all, write ups on the way…

Secret Door… well I think heavy + first run of the season, were excuses for her last run and she’s the only class winning in the field and one of the few proven over this trip. She’s won some decent C2s in her time also and after  failed chasing campaign earlier in the year, it looks like they may be sticking to hurdles. She has the best form in the book of any in this race I think and just a case of whether she can get back to that level. Her decent 2nd 3 starts ago would be enough to take this I  think and she will appreciate the better ground. It’s a bit of a guessing game with the going here given the going stick and similar readings have been much softer than ‘good’ in recent history, but hopefully it isn’t proper soft. The top two in the weights look out of sorts, Waiheke has fitness to prove which makes 11/2 or so not overly generous but if a1 could be interesting for the red hot Hobbs. Shambra, Solstalla and She’s Gina all have stamina to prove, having done most of their racing/winning over 16f. The latter is a stats qual but has stamina and fitness to prove, and is up in class. In that context I didn’t think 5s was generous but she’s unexposed and did win when last seen, so clearly can’t be discounted.

Finley’s Eyes – well given the odds and the fact I obviously follow Nick blind, I hope his wins, but I liked the chances of this one and thought we could see a very big run here. He didn’t finish that far behind the winner LTO, who’s rated 127. One day he should laugh at a mark of 114. He’s down in class and makes handicap debut. What I thought may make the difference is the field size and I think there should be a decent gallop on- that will be the first time he’s had that to aim at. He is a keen sort who appears to be getting better with racing and has finished off his last two races well – they crawled two starts ago, as they did LTO. I think with a proper pace to settle off he will be transformed. Whether that’s today time will tell, but he clearly has handicap wins in him moving forward. He’s a big horse who travels and jumps well. I think he’s the one to beat here and he won’t be far away, cruising into it as they approach the last. Or chasing Peterbrough, as that would be a decent return.

West Wizard – he is the one to beat in here I think as he returned to form with a vengeance two starts back, from a horse that went on to win NTO at a decent enough level. He’s been rated much much higher in the past but has only had 8 chase starts over this distance, which seems to be ideal for him. He has experience of the track and was travelling well, albeit still a long way from home, when UR at Ffos Las. Paddy gets a go today, a RTP favourite albeit his ‘agricultural style’ doesn’t please everyone, and I though if he stands up, he’s the one the rest will have to worry about, and 4s was fair. The Skelton horse is a danger- he’s fit and very consistent, but I don’t think would live with the selection at his best and he has a better level of form. We shall see if I have picked the right one between the two, as I stared at them both for an age.

That’s the lot. Tomorrow’s post ‘the core’ should be completed in normal time this evening, maybe by 7pm as i arrive in Bristol at 5.20, but plan to get plenty done on the trains etc. 

 

3.Micro System Test Zone

Flat 

R Fell

5.15 Newc – Elusive Heights 9/1

7.15 Newc – Molly Mahem 40/1

 

Jumps

Paddy Brennan (14/1< guide)

3.35 War – West Wizzard 4/1 2nd

A Dunn (25/1< guide)

3.25 Font – Polo The Mumm 16/1

 

Jumps Fact Sheet 2018/19 

Jockeys/Chasers

3.05 War – Gardiners Hill (9/1< best) 9/1 WON 9/1>9/2

3.05 War – Irish Octave (25/1<) 6/1 Fell

3.35 War – Modeligo (16/1<) 33/1 DNQ

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

Stats/Trends: Wincanton/Cheltenham Nov Meeting: Read HERE>>

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

29 Responses

  1. Peterborough Warwick 14:30 1pt e/w Price available 14/1
    Oriental Lilly Newcastle 18:45 1pt e/w Price available 7/1

  2. Thursday’s…..

    Newb’ 12.40….. French Crusader….. 10.0 Win @ 6.34
    Newb’ 2.25…… Sula Island…………. 11.5 L @ 8.0
    Chel’ 6.45…… Primero…………….. 13.0 Win @ 21.4
    Chel’ 7.45…… Iconic Girl………….. 16.0 L @ 12.6
    Chel’ 8.45……. Charleston Belle…… 16.0 L @ 13.9

    Good day….. happy with that as it’s been a tough week so far with very few quality novice races to go at. R/T 1W 5L +15.4

  3. Interesting day yesterday with Moorlands Mist winning at 20/1 SP along with Gentlemen returning a 16/1 winner, both at SP prices for a combined return at 1/5 th odds of plus 43.2 pts…(.Gentlemen returned 26.1 BFSP)…losing bets, including the double selections in two of the bets amounted to minus 16 pts….overall plus of 27.2 pts on the day so made up for previous poor results…. Both the winners were 19lbs and 20 lbs, respectively, below their last winning marks…Tricky Qualifiers for today as some selections very closely matched so have avoided picking any of them….Again caution advised, with selections below in what looks like tricky fields.
    15.05. War. Kilmurvy
    15.15. Hex. Dartford Warbler (Frank The Slink if rain comes)
    15.35. War. Foundation Man (27lbs below last win)
    15.45. Hex. Top Billing
    18.30. Dun. Victorious Secret
    19.15. New. Gone With The Wind
    19.45. New. Little Choosey
    20.30. Dun. Isharah.
    Gd Lck if playing

  4. Had some spare time tonight so thought I’d put up qualifiers at Newcastle:
    5.15 Grandee 9/1
    6.45 Oriental Lily 6/1
    7.15 Mossy’s Lodge 5/1
    7.45 Silk Mill Blue 5/1 & Highwayman 15/2
    8.15 Smuggler’s Creek 7/1
    8.45 Round The Island 8/1

    All 1pt win and a small exacta/rev forecast in the 7.45

    Some good news in the offing. Inform Racing have announced that they are testing a system builder which should be available in the next few weeks. Hopefully this will allow me to automate my system and save me hours of data entry. If that happens I may be back full-time.

    Good Luck

    1. Ken, you are a tipping addict!

      Like I said before if you need help with systems simplification just shout.

  5. Hello all, think today might be feast or famine day. Here i go neck on the block.
    14:30 Warwick
    Dexcite 9/2 gen 1pt win
    Mick Thonic 10/1 gen 1/2pt ew
    15:05 Warwick
    Irish Octave 11/2 gen 1pt win
    Gardiners Hill 12/1 gen 1/2pt ew
    15:35 Warwick
    Jarlath 7/1 pp 1pt win
    Mr Satco 6/1 365 1pt win

    Good luck and hope all horses and jockeys come back safe and sound.

    1. Well done with Gardner’s Stewart, easy. As is my want of course I pick the wrong decent odds stats qual, one for the Bowen fact sheet there. Lovely ride. Less so on mine. Didn’t expect him to be out the back of the tv now in a handicap/down in class/headgear. Always asking for trouble, and he found it, having to jump over a faller when trying to close, game over. Wasn’t sure GK up to this level but on reflection not the strongest of C4s.

        1. Feast today Josh…. Really happy i got the early odds on those and so happy the jumpers are back!
          I do the two and it works for me, profit is the name of the game after all!!

          1. Famine for me sadly. Awful scenes, always more annoying when I pick the wrong ones but at least the stats are finding winners, albeit some of strategies could do with a few going in. Painful day for me. yep plenty of logic for going double handed, working well.

  6. RECENT TIPS
    Daily
    H 2.10 – Durbanville on 1st run @ 8
    …………Le Drapeau on 1st run @ 8
    …………Cash To Ash on 1st run @ 10
    H 3.15 – McGintys Dream on 7th run @ 14
    H 3.45 – Only Orvieto on 4th run @ 12
    N 7.15 – Totally Magic on 7th run @ 11/2
    N 7.45 – Highwayman on 3rd run @ 9
    3m+
    F 1.15 – Snowball on 1st run @ 12
    W 3.05 – Amiral Collognes on 1st run @ 14
    GL

  7. Chris M Selections
    Hexham:
    14:10 – River Icon (5/1 gen)

    Warwick:
    15:05 – Irish Octave (6/1 gen)

    Newcastle:
    17:15 – Black Isle Boy (9/1 gen)

    Dundalk:
    20:00 – Atlas (9/1 gen)

    Good luck with any bets today.

  8. I thought Mr Satco in the 15:35 at Warwick was interesting but about the right price at 6/1 last night however 16/1 is silly so have had 1pt e/w

  9. COLINS BETS
    Newcastle
    7.15 Let Right Be Done BOG 8/1
    8.15 Smugglers Creek BOG 7/1
    8.15 Rebel State BOG 9/1
    8.15 Grey Destiny BOG 16/1
    8.45 Lucky Lodge BOG 3/1

    ELITE BETS
    3.15 Hexham Inchcolm BOG 11/4
    3.35 Warwick Too Much Too Soon BOG 7/2

  10. Trainers with a 33% win strike rate in the past 30 days – 5.45 Nc Lexington Palm.

    Irish trained runners in England and Wales – 2.45 Hex Hitchcock; 3.45 Hex See Double You.

    Good luck.

  11. Friday’s possibilities……

    Font’ 1.50….Dino’s Benefit…… 7.0
    War’ 2.00….Huntsman’s Son… 6.5
    Font’ 2.25….Waiheke…………… 10.5
    Newc’ 6.45…Playmate…………. 9.5

    Tim

      1. Cheers Chris…. Having those last 2 come in for me has took the pressure off me a little now cos there’s always the chance that you will start it at a bad time and burn out.

        Was going to put up a reminder in case anyone was going to follow just reminding them of the rules. Not that there are any rules really. Is only two I guess….

        1) The odds I put up along with the selection are the minimum odds I will accept for the bet to go down.
        2) All bets are defined by the BFSP, so as Josh pointed out you can just place the bet with minimum odds and leave it, or shop around for something better if you prefer.

  12. Skelton’s horses are massively out of form so avoid them like the plague at the moment. Should give value to other runners as plenty of his are over bet.

  13. with heavy rain forecast over south yorkshire tonight i’ve had a couple of quid ew on What About Carlo @50-1 3-15 Donny as if he gets soft ground i would imagine he’ll probably halve in price.

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