Members Daily Post: 08/11/18 (complete)

Test tips x4, Section 1 (comp), test zone, important updates…

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack

2.Any Tips/Notes (Daily Tips/Festival Tips/other thoughts)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc


1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack



12.40 – Majestic Touch (micro class/dist) 14,30 H3 I3 G1 16/1 S1 S2A S4 2nd 

2.55 – 

Moon Racer (all hncps + m class) w1 H1 15/2 3rd 

Splash Of Ginge (m class) 28/1 UP

Whos My Jockey (m age) 14,30 G1 12/1 S1 S2 UP

3.30 – 

Silverhow (all hncps) H3 7/1 UP

Kapcorse (hncp chase) w1 30 H3 5/2 UP

Chef D’Equipe (m class/age) 14,30 11/1 S2 2nd 

4.00 – Edwardstone (NHF) 14 14/1 S2 2nd 25/1 


Market Rasen

2.35 – Forgot To Ask (nov hncps) (added info- hncp debut) w1 14 H3 I3 9/1 S5 (IF 11.00+ BFSP)

3.10 – Follow The Swollow (hncp c) 9/1 2nd 

3.40 – Lady Maleficent (all hncps + m class) ES+ 14/1 S2 S3A  UP



1.05 – Millie The Minx (all hncps) 30 H1 I3 G3 9/4 S4 3rd 

2.45 – Notonebuttwo (m class) 9/4 PU

3.20 – 

Onwiththeparty (all hncps) w1 ES+ 9/1 S3A UP

You’re So Right (hncp h) (added info – hncp debut/trainer change) 14 11/4 UP


Irish Bonus Stats 

2.30 Thurles – Synopsis (hncp hurdle) H1 8/1 UP




H1/H3= HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)

G1/G3 = Geegeez GoldSpeed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated

I1/I3 =  Inform Racing Speed Ratings – Top Rated or Top 3

14,30 = Geegeez Goldtrainer form’ indicators14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr3010+ runs last 30 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr

S1-S6 : S = ‘Strategy’ and refers to the ‘advised strategies’ in the link below. S1 = ‘Strategy 1’. Added on morning of racing along with the price. w1won last start.   w2won two starts ago (tracking as of 15th Feb 2018)

NEW! Welcome Video 2018/19>>>Watch HERE>>>

The Strategies: Where should you start? Some ideas HERE>>> 

‘Flat Strategies/results‘: Flat 2017 Read HERE>>>(updated to end Sept 2018)

‘Jumps Strategies/results’: Jumps 2017/18 Read HERE>>>(updated to end Sept 2018)

Research Articles: (TTP reports/Test Zone/Monthly Articles/Big Meetings Notes) READ HERE>>>

VIDEOS: Members Repository: HERE>>> . All Public (non members only) Videos HERE>>>

IMPORTANT: More Welcome Info  HERE>>> (please read) (inc must watch videos :)) 

Contact: email:  –  … or failing that… 



2.Any Tips/Notes (Daily Tips/Festival Tips/other thoughts)


Daily Tips

NONE today.


TEST Best of the Stats Quals? (11/29,14p, +20)

2.45 Sedge – Notonebuttwo – 3/1 (gen) PU

3.10 Market R – Mariners Moon – 5/1 (gen) PU

3.30 Newb- Silverhow – 13/2 (bet365/BetfS/BV/BetB) UP

7.45 Chelm – Heavenly Holly – 2/1 (gen) WON 2/1>11/10 


That’s all for today, 09.08, write ups…


Notonebuttwo – this one is lightly raced for Sue Smith, despite being 11, and i think he’ll go very close here. In May he was looking like the winner of a C4 over CD before tipping up. He returned after a break with a decent run at Hexham, just bumping into a very well handicapped one. I think the trip was too short at Bangor and he was going faster than ideal, and thus tiring turning for home. In any case, all those were C4s and he drops into a C5 here. He races ‘up in the van’ and has course experience, and his inexperienced jockey knows him well. He’ll want to win on him as he may have been used as an ‘education’ horse for him. This trip should suit more and he will find this easier than recent assignments, going a stride slower. I thought there was some juice in his price, just.

Mariners Moon- 5s just lured me in. I mean he is 1/44 in his career but this is only his 4th run over fences- so at least he’s unexposed in this sphere, if not generally! His first chase run may have been over a trip too short in August and he jumped right there. At Warwick two starts back he jumped well and lost by a neck, having been bumped in the closing stages but staying on well. This 2m5f could be ideal. LTO was over 3m, he swung into it off the home bend, having also raced wide for most of the way, but his stamina gave out between the last two. Sean is back on and the horse goes RH chasing for the first time which looks sure to suit. I expect an aggressive ride and he should be up there in the right spot. The hood appears to have helped and he’ll pick up a weak chase soon enough, albeit if not today he may have to wait a while for decent ground.  The Fergal OBrien horse is a big danger, his price felt about right but if he repeats that last run he won’t be far away and is the right fav. Hopefully my jockey is worth plenty in this though, but Brace, while inexperienced is highly regarded by team FOB.

Silverhow – poor old Silverhow. Apologies to all. I mean he’ll probably swerve left and UR at the first now, having approached it too fast! I jest, but that is the one niggle, him going this way round esp when it hots up over the last few, but he jumped straight enough at Chepstow until getting tired. I thought he should be 4/1, 9/2 or so and as such 13/2 was fair. If he jumps he won’t be out of the places. He is just so obvious in this, that even I could see it! 🙂 He’s unexposed over fences still but with enough experience. He has some solid form in the book already, certainly some of the best chase form on offer in terms of what they’ve all achieved over fences to date and he comes here on the back of a run, unlike many. Tizzard won the first running of this race in 2016 and I suspect this has been the plan. He was allowed to drift back through the field LTO, and potter away, but still travelling ok turning for home without his jockey asking much of an effort. He doesn’t stay that trip I don’t think and he takes a drop in class here. Horses behind him that day have won since, and the race could be worth tracking. Of course Traffic Fluid won NTO also. I really should never back a hold up chaser ever again and thankfully this one will be up there. His improved form, esp at Sandown, came with the jockey being more aggressive, and making all. They will have him right up there today, in the best spot. Tizzard and Power are 5/25,10p in handicap chases and it’s interesting he’s over here today, given a meeting at Thurles but maybe he had no options there. Tizzard is 3/11,5p in handicap chases at the track in the last two years. He really is the solid one in here and I can see why the money is coming. I nearly put him in the Daily Tips but didn’t want to be that cruel, and in any case, i’m trying to keep that for bigger odds ones, 8s+. And well if he was 8s+ when I looked, he would have had that added curse. But on my judgement this is still value. Dangers…well the fav is short on his first run, up in class, and is a hold up horse. But he’s in the ‘could be anything’ category. The Hobbs horse would go well if fit, but again he is usually held up, but could run ok. And the Nick Williams horse WON could be the biggest danger…they can ready them and he’s unexposed but with chase experience also. A big run from him wouldn’t surprise me and I may throw some change at him.

Heavenly Holly – well this is a test and lord help me i’ve dived into the AW, but such is my focus on the stats picks on this page, I have to look at them I suppose! 🙂 This one is being backed and I thought shouldn’t be bigger than the fav…mainly as she will likely come on for that last run, has course form, and get’s 7lb from her. That could make the difference. The yard are red hot, it was a decent enough race LTO, Doyle is on for the first time- TJC stats here are silly, Palmer does well with those on second start etc etc. She looked solid. No doubt their unraced qualifier below will dot up at 7s, but that looked hot enough on paper given the yards represented and a few with runs already.

That’s it for today… eyes on Duhallow Gesture who could be worth following. I thought 9/2 on her reappearance was only ok. She has some smart bumper form, but there are some race fit rivals here including the fav who I was a tad scared of.

Likewise Imperial Alcazar looked interesting…well you can only go on the stats really and I did think this looked a deep race on paper- well Hendo has one which concerned me! But Fergal and Paddy, since start 2016, are 10/28,13p, +54 BFSP on NHF horses having their first career start. Maybe on that basis alone he’s worth a bet.

No doubt they’ll both bolt up now and i’ll be cursing 🙂

Best of luck. And to Silverhow, who now has about 20 stone on his back.


3.Micro System Test Zone


The Doyler

5.15 Chelm – Rachel Zane 7/1 

7.45 Chelm – Heavenly Holly 9/4 

J Osborne/headgear

5.45 Chelm – Society Shock 28/1 


Autumn Trainers

2.35 MR – Allez Jacques 33/1 UP

A Honeyball/Mares

2.25 Newb – Duhallow Gesture (10/1< guide) 4/1 3rd 

Paddy Brennan (14/1< guide) 

2.55 Newb – Ocean Cove 12/1 UP

4.00 Newb – Imperial Alcazar 5/1 UP


Fact Sheet 2018/19 

LTO Winning Hurdlers

12.40 Newb – New Quay  4/5 

Trainers to Follow 

3.20 Sedge – Youre So Right 3/1 UP

1.30 MR – Forget Me Knot 8/1  UP


3.10 MR – Mariners Moon 9/2 PU

2.35 MR – Some Chaos 3/1 WON 7/2 


4.Any general messages/updates etc

‘Important’ NOTE:

On Friday i’m off on my travels, first to Bristol to meet up with my old Uni housemates, and then on Monday i’m flying to Vegas. First time. Gulp. It’s bad timing really given Chelts November meeting but it’s been in the diary for a couple of years and sadly the others wouldn’t bring it forward to September! It’s the only ‘holiday’ I have booked in before the end of April, bar a fleeting trip to Milan in Feb to watch Snow Patrol, but I suspect that will be it until the summer. As always i’ll try my best to limit disruption and you won’t notice much difference when it comes to Section 1 + 3. (‘the core’) . Mike is going to help me as always when I’m away, sending me section 1 quals, and ‘Geegeez Chris’ is going to add the ratings pointers etc and send them back to me, before I upload onto the site etc. Anyway, all that means is that I can try and switch off as much as possible, while ensuring the service level is maintained. I think i’m 7 hours or so behind, so i’ll see how that pans out and when I can post. Given my ‘big odds’ tipping, a proper week away may be no bad thing. Blimey that’s been woeful. Still, the tipping profit keeps rolling in within the comments! 

Stats/trends notes…

In preparation… I have pulled together some stats/trends for you. There is the Badger Ales Chase on Saturday (i plan for my Sat to be as normal and i plan to attack it myself) and also the two big handicaps from Cheltenham next week…The Greatwood Hurdle and The Betvictor Gold Cup. The stats for the former look solid. There’s also a table of ‘trainers of interest’ with all their runners for previous 5 meetings.

So, if you enjoy that sort of research to help with your own, you can read that HERE>>> 


Wednesday was ok. Well… i’m enjoying the fact section 1 and esp 3 are throwing up plenty of winners. That gives me hope I may land on plenty, whether in the ‘test’ or actual daily tips. Venetia Williams had a couple of runners at Chepstow and they both ran very well- suggesting she may well have her string where she wants them…so maybe ‘Venetia Time’ will get back to normal.


From yesterday…


Please remember THE KEY IS YOUR FRIEND! 🙂 I have updated the research articles link to include ‘the fact sheet 2018/19’ and the TTP Jumps report 2018/19 is there also (that’s where all jumps section 1 qualifiers originate from) Plus loads of other old stuff in there as usual.

The Strategies: Where Should You Start‘ link in the Key is also your friend.

On first look I know there seems to be plenty going on but as a starting point, you can follow Jumps… S1, S2A (ew an option), S3A# (S3A fine also, but S3A# is where i’d start) and w1  (+w2 an option, but for now i’d say w1)

You can follow all or none of those. The first two are big odds, very profitable but a bumpy ride.

Then there is the ‘tipping’ – there is my stuff in Section 2. I’m always bullish with my Big Race/Festival tipping over time, inc C2/G3 big 3m+ handicap chases in free post. My daily tips need some work, but I may have found a new calling with the ‘shorties’ test.

And then there’s the comments/other members. More shrewdies in there than I can count. I would say Colin and Nick probably have the biggest following but that’s because they’ve been posting the longest- and well, they are bloody good! Plenty of others are hot on their coatails, Chris, Stewart, Chubnut had a flying start, All the Martins etc!!

All of that is covered in the NEW! welcome video, guess where that is, yep THE KEY! 🙂

Be patient, and take your time.


Venetia Williams/November

We have been following this for a few years now but the last two have been a bit iffy..well 2017 was 3/18,6p, 0 BFSP. 2016 was 3/17,6p, +16 BFSP.

Venetia Williams/November/Beginners Chase+Hncp chase+hncp novive chase / November / NOT 1 run only last 90 days / 16/1 or shorter SP

2012 – 126 bets / 38 wins / 59p / 30% win SR / +158 SP / +190 BFSP 

Last year we tracked into December also, because she’s been slow to start the last couple of years and that’s all been down to the lack of rain. That could be the case again this year, they could be a few weeks behind where they normally are, but fitness usually isn’t a problem when everything is firing. We shall see how it goes in the test zone this year.



Post Comments

Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

41 Responses

  1. Wednesday’s….

    Newc 4.00 Insurplus……. 11.5 2nd @ 7.6
    Chel 5.20 Saikung……… 8.0 L @ 5.4
    Chel 6.50 Roof Garden.. 10.0 L @ 8.0

    No bets taken so running total remains at -5. Back tomorrow.

  2. See Josh, I told you the shorty stats qualifiers were worth focusing on

    Well done so far and enjoy Vegas!

    1. haha, well it’s been a good start! I should have been closer to 6/4 and 11/2 (that one more annoying) winners on Wed, but that was more of a positive than a negative, close. Still, +21 every 25 points outlay would be nice. I will get the bigger odds eyes sorted one day! cheers, i’ll try my best. Can’t wait.

  3. Thanks for all the kind comments guys.

    Mon Palois Market Rasen 14:35 1pt e/w Price available 12/1
    Silverhow Newbury 15:30 1pt e/w Price available 10/1

    1. Hi Nick, just signed up. I’m told you’re a man to follow. Can I ask if I can find a record of all the bets you’ve recommended on here, or even just your strike rate and ROI?

      1. I don’t have strike rates but I average 1-3 bets a day I would say so roughly at a guess 60-75 a month and most of which are 1pt e/w and currently at +509.33 from the start of the year.

    2. Not wishing to tempt fate but worth mentioning the 15:30 is a bet365 feature race so a free bet in the 17:45 at chelmsford if it wins.

    3. I can only assume every bookie in the country has a picture of Nick in their offices with a target sign on his head. Fantastic work, well done.

      1. If only they knew my face. (I am not quite yet at the point of having to bet at a bookies but that time must be coming)

        1. It’s OK, some of them make you a cup of tea or coffee.

          Also they do not pay attention to bets under £50 and so you can spread them around if you need to.

  4. First off…great stuff from Nick…many congrats…we can but dream to come close!!…..Yesterday a minuscule loss with plus 8.8pts against minus 9pts, with one non runner….Brokopondo placed at 10/1 SP…Island Heights won at 7/2 SP and Novabridge placed at 14/1 SP……so .2pts down on the day at SP prices…..Todays Qualifiers below:
    13.05. Sedg. Landscape
    13.20. Thurl. Aranhill
    14.45. Sedg. Gin Cobbler (Stormbay Bomber very closely matched)
    15.10. M/R. The Jugopolist (Shows Over very closely matched)
    15.20. Sedg. Moorlands Mist
    15.30. Newb. Thomas Crapper
    15.40. M/R. Handsome Dan
    19.15. Chelm. Gentlemen
    20.45. Billyoakes.
    As always caution advised if playing… Gd Lck.

    1. Ballyarthur – would ideally like a bit more cut in the ground but this looks his distance and level, 6lb higher than last winning mark , the Twiston-Davies’s look to be in good form and with the price drifting out to 28’s it looks to be good value.
      Frozon – out to 25’s, upped in distance on his handicap debut looks to have got in off a fair mark, to be fair this selection is more of a hunch than anything else.

  5. Morning,

    Well done Nick and it looks like I’m jumping on the bandwagon ( backing up) your suggestion on Silverhow today..ah well, if ot all gets us profit, so be it!
    14:55 Newbury
    MOON RACER 9/1 gen 1pt win
    JERSEY BEAN 8/1 gen 1pt win
    15:30 Newbury
    DE DOLLAR MAN 13/2 gen 1pt win
    SILVERHOW 8/1 gen 1pt win

    Good luck and hope all jockeys and horses come back safe and sound!

    1. Ah yes, good pick there Stewart, bolted up! Top work, decent day. Sadly the weight of expectation on Silverhow was too much haha – he just couldn’t go that pace at all, never looked comfortable. Def prefers RH also, I think that confirmed that, esp when under pressure. May get away with it on softer in a smaller field, and he prob is best leading which he could never do there. Ouch.

    S 1.05 – Millie the Minx on 1st run @ 5/2
    C 8.45 – John Joiner on 8th run @ 9/2
    Mey 4.50 – Night Circus on 4th run @ 16
    N 2.55 – Clondaw Cian on 5th run @ 25

  7. Chris M Selections
    12:40 – Majestic Moon (16/1 gen)

    13:20 – Mindsmadeup(11/2 gen)

    18:45 – Petite Jack (9/1 gen)

    6.45 Petite Jack BOG
    7.15 Areen Heart BOG
    8.45 Kraka BOG

    12.40 Newbury Capitaine BOG

    No winner yesterday,did the Evans stable back Athassel 25/1 when put up to 11/1 SP,ran a poor race in the end.
    Nick what can i say mate keep it up.

  9. Guys I very rarely bet ante-post (first time since Cheltenham I think and even longer without NRNB) so this is likely to blow up in my face particularly as there isn’t any NRNB safety net but struggling to see how I won’t be tipping Western Ryder for the Greatwood next Sunday unless his price totally plummets so have had 0.5pt e/w (stake size is due to it being AP would be tipping 1pt e/w if race was tomorrow) on it now. Will record to 14s even if some 16s about.

    1. Nick what a brave man you are so far ahead do not know what the conditions will be on the 18th,let alone will it run,will wait for the night before or on the day to back it.
      Hope it runs and wins

      1. Yeah that’s why I rarely do it but he is a rare exception in that he will have no issues on either good or soft ground and whilst heavy wouldn’t be ideal he has won on it and ran well in the Supreme so wouldn’t be a disaster.

  10. Surely there is a conflict of interest issue with the Tizzard yard being sponsored by a bookie, same goes for Skelton yard. Just thought i’d throw the thought out there….

    1. Have had my say on this before amazed that the BHA allow this for this leaves the door open for possible corruption,which of course is not going to happen.
      To think a few years ago the bookies were going ballistic over Barney Curly readying one for a major punt,being backed from 20/1 to evens and romping home,they were wanting him banned from training horses,Good old Barney for he kept finding one to beat the bookies every so often and it was always a major gamble.

      1. Yes, Colin, they are no longer ‘bookies’ if you can no longer win – as the furore over FOBTs shows (See also virtual racing, casino games, online gambling, video games etc) as the punter has the odds fixed against him. Such businesses are no longer bookmakers (they now ban ‘winners’ or heavily restrict them) because they no longer are making a book in the established sense but are trying to ensure that every activity returns a profit and no losses, if possible.
        Nowadays, these are global casino businesses.
        I think that the BHA should intervene and prevent sponsorship of stables as it is against the interests of the general public.
        NB I’ve tried to be concise so as not to swamp RTP.

        1. I must add that if a race was fixed the ‘bookies’ would scream ‘blue murder’ but they can fix their results….

    2. I don’t see a problem with it, and if anything, makes everything more likely to be legit etc. Clearly odd issue when those that do blogs etc use privileged info before it’s made public, as with Hendo/Unibet, but such is backlash from that last season, they won’t make mistake again I don’t think. Many many trainers will have some sort of bookie sponsprship I think, esp all those at top table. Nicholls/betfair. It makes more info coming out in public more likely I think. And in any case, many bookies would have trainers/owners accounts marked etc, I think, so would know if a horse was fancied, and would take cover/duck it – that will have been happening ever since racing/bookies.

      I don’t know what the conflict is. A trainer is in danger of/would lose license if ever saying this def won’t win today, i’d lay lay lay to his sponsor!! That’s a risky game. Most will go with ‘we expect he’ll come on for the run’ etc.
      I doubt many if any do private daily briefings on their sponsor’s runners.


      1. Josh wished i had your faith a bookie will have a direct line into the stables runners and when he knows one is not fancied and cannot win he only needs to push the price out 1 point and will make a killing with the extra bets knowing that he cannot lose.
        A small percentage of jockeys over the years have taken money not to win a race,for a grade 4 course the jockey may if lucky pick up £200 in the win bonus and someone offered him £1000 to ensure the horse does not win,greed and money can win.
        All sports go through corruption and greed be it
        Cricket recently the Pakistan players, and one remember before the South African captain who died in a small plane crash believed the bookies had him killed.
        Snooker had a cheat not long ago cannot remember his name.
        Football, Asian bookmakers have been accused on many occasions of influencing the outcome of matches.
        Most sports will have a cheat or two money rules so for me bookies should not sponsor trainers.

        1. Totally Agree With You Colin
          Totally Toothless Anyway, Nowadays .
          Had Said as much in posts Some time ago.
          Josh Does Not agree.
          Fair Enough .
          Think Said Before My Father Was Bookies Runner in The 1930s
          and Yes quite a lot of Corruption going on.
          Rule 4s Withdrawn Favs.
          Jockeys Just not Trying .
          See it Everyday of the week
          Very Much playing against a Stacked Deck as was said in Shane.
          Guess you just have to be aware
          and Take note of the Dodgy Goings on.
          Quite Honestly anyone who Believes this is Not happening
          Needs to Go to SpecSavevers
          and get Rose Tinted Specs Changed .

          1. Ah well my view has always been that the majority, 95%+ is straight, the runs of most horses can be explained, and even if that’s too high, enough is straight for all of us to enjoy the game and profit from it long term, so I don’t think about it that much really. Like any endeavour involving humans esp where money involved, there will be some skulduggery but it is what is is.

  11. Thursday’s……

    Newb’ 12.40….. French Crusader….. 10.0
    Newb’ 2.25…… Sula Island…………. 11.5
    Chel’ 6.45…… Primero…………….. 13.0
    Chel’ 7.45…… Iconic Girl………….. 16.0
    Chel’ 8.45……. Charleston Belle…… 16.0


  12. In the 8.15 Chelmsford I was sitting on the fence with Father McKenzie at 15/2 hoping it might be 8+ this morning,my comfort zone,trainer is in fine form,is 4/20 with the 4yo+ at the course and Ryan Tate makes a profitable combo,but the non runner has made it a no bet unless the horse drifts in the live market,its a poor race so no need to dwell on the form

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