Members Daily Post: 07/11/18 (complete)

Tip x1, Test x3/Section 1(comp) , test zone , much chat in Section 4

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack

2.Any Tips/Notes (Daily Tips/Festival Tips/other thoughts)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack

FLAT 

Nottingham

1.05 – Nette Rousse (2YO) 14,30 

2.50 – 

Machree (all hncps) w114,30 H3 I3 12/1 UP

Samovar (all hncps) 14/1 UP

3.20- 

Pearl Noir (all hncps + micro class) w2 G1 16/1 S6 UP

Honey GG (all hncps) w1 14,30 I1 G3 7/2 S2  2nd 

3.50 – Debatable (m class) H3 9/2 WON 9/2>4/1 

 

JUMPS

Musselburgh

12.45 – Urban Kode (hncp h) H1 I1 11/2  3rd 

2.25 – Island Heights (hncp h- class/dist subset/refer to guide; + m TJC) ES+H3 4/1 S3A  WON 4/1>7/2 

3.00 – Kelpies Myth (hncp h + m TJC) ES+16/1 S2A S3A 3rd 16/1>12/1 

3.30 – Vinos Choice (hncp h) H3 I3 3/1 UP

 

Chepstow

12.55 – 

Better News (all hncps + hncp h + m runs) (added info- hncp debut) 14/1 S2 UP

Newquay Cards (hncp h) 9/1 UP

2.00 – 

Deadly Move (all hncps + m class) ES+18/1 S2A S3A UP

Our Reward (m class) w1 14 H1 I1 G1 10/3 S4 UP

2.35 – 

Judge Earle (all hncps + m TJC) ES+ 11/1 S2 S3A UP

Marble Moon (hncp h) w2 w1 H1 I3 10/1 S2 S5 UP

3.10 – Enola Gray (nov hncps) 12/1 S2 3rd 10/1 

 

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KEY

H1/H3= HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)

G1/G3 = Geegeez GoldSpeed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated

I1/I3 =  Inform Racing Speed Ratings – Top Rated or Top 3

14,30 = Geegeez Goldtrainer form’ indicators14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr3010+ runs last 30 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr

S1-S6 : S = ‘Strategy’ and refers to the ‘advised strategies’ in the link below. S1 = ‘Strategy 1’. Added on morning of racing along with the price. w1won last start.   w2won two starts ago (tracking as of 15th Feb 2018)

NEW! Welcome Video 2018/19>>>Watch HERE>>>

The Strategies: Where should you start? Some ideas HERE>>> 

‘Flat Strategies/results‘: Flat 2017 Read HERE>>>(updated to end Sept 2018)

‘Jumps Strategies/results’: Jumps 2017/18 Read HERE>>>(updated to end Sept 2018)

Research Articles: (TTP reports/Test Zone/Monthly Articles/Big Meetings Notes) READ HERE>>>

VIDEOS: Members Repository: HERE>>> . All Public (non members only) Videos HERE>>>

IMPORTANT: More Welcome Info  HERE>>> (please read) (inc must watch videos :)) 

Contact: email:  – info@racingtoprofit.co.uk  … or failing that… racingtoprofit@gmail.com 

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2.Any Tips/Notes (Daily Tips/Festival Tips/other thoughts)

Daily Tips(2017 Sept-Dec: 31/176, +110.75) (2018: 28/316,99p, -16.2) (1 point win /1 pt EW bets) Festival Tips (2018: +152)

Daily Tips

2.35 Chep – Lord Ballim – 1 point EW– 20/1 (Lad/Coral) 18/1 (gen) UP, poor. Nick the saviour again! Outside of big races i’ll be retiring into stats picks only I think, to see if I can find some sort of big odds form as i’m proving a tad useless with those 8s+ on the daily front. 

that’s all for today, 09.33, write ups on the way…

I started the day intent on just sticking to any stats quals on this page (outside of Big|Festival Race/trends races etc) and if this one doesn’t run his race maybe i’ll rein myself in and try and put all my daily focus into those, albeit there was nothing at 8s+ i wanted to ‘tip’ on this page, but hopefully I may be wrong on the odd one esp when hitting a strategy etc. Anyway, this one is just too big, whatever he does, he is no 18s shot in this. It’s a bit insulting. I have worked on the basis that this ground may be testing enough on the soft side albeit as it rides currently it’s no excuse, but softer ground would raise questions for plenty of the others as much as anything. With the jockeys claim, who’s ridden him well on recent starts, he is technically 1lb below his last winning mark over fences. He arrives fit and in form, and he stays well enough. He nearly won at Worcester three starts back doing all his best work late, closing all the way to the line, the front two miles clear. He ran well at Sedgefield where a late error didn’t help but he was running on, and 27f may well have just stretched him. He returned in a decent C3 chase after a 12 week break LTO, where he hit the front a few out and looked as though he may win. He was beaten by an unexposed Smith horse, the first winner for the test below, and just got tired/stamina gave way late on up that hill. But that was a run from a horse in form to my eyes. He can be a bit tricky and will be held up, which is why you want a price and in part why i’ve gone EW. But he has a good record when making a quick return – 3 of his 5 career wins have been when returning within 18, 10 and 2 days – and if he runs his race he will travel into this looking very threatening. There’s enough pace on paper and he has a long straight to wind up here. Fingers crossed he runs his race, but clearly on these bigger pokes my daily eyes haven’t been in great form for a while.

In part I thought many of those above him have questions- all those at the top of the market have to do something new, esp if the rain arrives as expected. Newland’s is in form and a danger but has to prove that soft in handicaps is fine but he probably won’t be far away. Socksy has a very good record fresh but is 0/4,0p in handicaps 2m7+, and while fitness may not be an issue, stamina is a question – which makes 6s or so only fair. Maybe she’ll now relish it. She’s yet to win above C4 also. Whitley Neill can take some rousting, is a lazy bugger and it’s his first run beyong 2m4f. Of course he’s unexposed and may relish it, but soft a question for him if the rain comes. But again I don’t think 7s is overly generous in that context. Marble Moon- well if this was on summer ground i’d have stared for longer but softening ground is a question – in the form of his life though, but the handicapper may be catching up. If he handles the ground he would out-run 12s and would at least win for w1/w2.

I’ll mention Django and hopefully either Nick or I are correct here. I can see why he’s interesting, esp with Junior booked on. As noted previously he’s worth watching when riding for his Dad given that he deliberately didn’t have a ride between end of March and October, I assume to protect his excellent claim. This one should come on for that last run, won’t mind soft – the question is stamina which he has to prove, but he’s lightly raced and the hope is that he improves for it. He has looked outpaced at times over shorter so I can see the case, but the selection is more than twice the price when I looked. But, clearly I won’t mind if either wins, but I could do with a winner and Nick has is sitting on a big enough pile for now! His other two can win! 🙂

I couldn’t touch the rest with a barge poll and if I haven’t mentioned the winner my eyes really will need de-rusting. Luugharne wouldn’t be a shock but I think the market will guide as to fitness, 0/4,2p on seasonal reappearance so he has run well. One of the more interesting outsiders.

Anyway, I can’t back them all. Lord B looked far too big, and time will tell. If he runs like he did LTO, i’d be disappointed were he out the front three, assuming some of the market principles don’t stay/handle the ground!

 

TEST Best of the Stats Quals? (10/25,13p, +21)

1.25 Chep- Meep Meep – 3/1 (gen) UP 9/4..poor, NHF runs could have been deceptive, as didn’t handle that ground at all I don’t think. That wasn’t her, but winner looks very smart, did run in Champion bumper. a ‘nice type’ !

3.30 Muss – Vinos Choice – 10/3 (bet365/WH/BV) 3/1 (others) UP, too keen, ran ok, may need stronger pace, needs to drop head. Could need further.

3.40 Chep – Kateson – 2/1  WON 2/1 

That’s it for today on the shorties ‘best of the stats quals’ test front, 08.29….

Meep Meep looked a point too big here and I’m glad to see the money come. She has fitness on her side against the two other market principles and she gets 7lb for the mares allowance. She may appreciate some cut and I suspect Scudamore may play catch me if you can, given she stays further I think. She has the best NHF form in the race along with Alan Kings. The latter is a big danger as is the George horse but I though 3s was too big for the selection. She won’t be far away at all here and of course has hurdling experience in live play now. I’ll fall off my seat if one of those three doesn’t win, there could be a 1-2 or a 1-2-3 there somewhere, maybe. I suppose the Hobbs horse may go ok but the market will guide.

Vinos Choice – comes here fit and ran his best race with the hood on LTO. He’s unexposed over hurdles and I thought looked a shade too big also, albeit his price isn’t moving as yet. The two above him are more exposed and don’t really like winning that often. Campbell won’t want to get too far back here as this one stays further to my eyes, but he will want to settle him. He could be getting better with experience and I was happy to roll the dice. He looks the most interesting on paper and did win his bumper.

Kateson – the market may guide here on his first run of the season and maybe that price was short enough in that context but I simply couldn’t ignore his bumper form – he was just ahead of the King horse in the race above in that G2 at Aintree. He has the best bumper form by a long way in this and if he transfers it to hurdles will demolish this lot. Well, that’s the theory. Fitness isn’t a problem for this yard if they want them tuned up first time. The market can guide in these races and it has poured on manvers House, who looks like the main danger. Some nibbled for Dashel Drasher also – and Scott is red hot, and he had some decent bumper form. Maybe it’s between the three of them.

One winner from the three again would be fine and keep the profit pile ticking along, so fingers crossed.

Dalgleish…well he could have 2/3 winners at Muss if the market is a guide. I looked at all his on this page but the prices felt about right. I will have got 1 or 2 wrong I think and the odd one may make 6/4 or so look massive, but they all have to do something different. Chica Buena makes handicap debut and is in form but it was a poor race LTO. She gets around 1 stone from Iolani for a 5lb difference on ratings when you take account of claims and the age/mares allowances etc. She is inexperienced though and this is a new test but she could be nice. Good Boy Alfie looked interesting as did Born For War, but the latter has stamina to prove, but may relish it. And that Southwell race has worked out very well. He should prove himself thrown in one day. Money for the S3A qualifier above – Island Heights, which is interesting. Hopefully a ‘shorty’ I got wrong for tipping purposes.

Right, that’s the lot.

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3.Micro System Test Zone

Flat 

The Doyler

5.20 Chelm – Flarepath 7/4

Jumps

Paddy Brennan (14/1< guide)

4.15 Chep- Champagne Well 10/1

Tom Lacey 

1.25 Chep – Meep Meep 10/3 UP

‘NEW’ (as with prev years) V Williams/November

3.10 Chep – Enola Gay (16/1<) 12/1 3rd 10/1 (second place for yard on card..VW appears to have them ready)

 

Fact Sheet 2018/19 

Trainers To Follow (Lacey/Lavelle/Dalgleish)

1.15 Muss – Good Boy Alfie6/4 UP / Valkenburg 11/2 UP (11/1< guide)

2.25 Muss – Born For War (as above) 6/4 UP

3.00 Muss – Chica Buena (as above) 6/4 WON 6/4>11/10

1.25 Chep – Meep Meep 10/3 UP

3.40 Chep – Kateson 2/1 WON 2/1 

LTO winning trainers

2.35 Chep – Marble Moon 10/1 UP

Jockeys/Chasers

2.00 Chep – Clondaw Rigger 5/1 WON 5/1 (damn, got him wrong for the test, others had ground Q, he was fit and well, unexposed. Next time) 

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Handicap Chase System Starting Points (10/1< best)

2.00 Chep – Our Reward 10/3 UP/ Whin Park 9/4 UP

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

Housekeeping

Please remember THE KEY IS YOUR FRIEND! 🙂 I have updated the research articles link to include ‘the fact sheet 2018/19’ and the TTP Jumps report 2018/19 is there also (that’s where all jumps section 1 qualifiers originate from) Plus loads of other old stuff in there as usual.

The Strategies: Where Should You Start‘ link in the Key is also your friend.

On first look I know there seems to be plenty going on but as a starting point, you can follow Jumps… S1, S2A (ew an option), S3A# (S3A fine also, but S3A# is where i’d start) and w1  (+w2 an option, but for now i’d say w1)

You can follow all or none of those. The first two are big odds, very profitable but a bumpy ride.

Then there is the ‘tipping’ – there is my stuff in Section 2. I’m always bullish with my Big Race/Festival tipping over time, inc C2/G3 big 3m+ handicap chases in free post. My daily tips need some work, but I may have found a new calling with the ‘shorties’ test.

And then there’s the comments/other members. More shrewdies in there than I can count. I would say Colin and Nick probably have the biggest following but that’s because they’ve been posting the longest- and well, they are bloody good! Plenty of others are hot on their coatails, Chris, Stewart, Chubnut had a flying start, All the Martins etc!!

All of that is covered in the NEW! welcome video, guess where that is, yep THE KEY! 🙂

Be patient, and take your time.

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Emma Lavelle

One way or another I posted a bonus winner that I shouldn’t have on Tuesday! That horse did not hit my Fact Sheet, but I hope some of you had a nibble, but majority won’t have. I have a few Lavelle angles saved up and that was one of those, throwing me momentarily. She is just in bloody good form at the moment and all her runners are worth a look, and the more unexposed the better really, in general. 

The test angle I had saved in my HRB account… was…

(‘ve momentarily lost my marbles…this angle below is the autumn trainer’s angle!!) 🙂 

Emma Lavelle / handicaps / class 3-4-5 / August to Dec / 0-6 runs in National Hunt handicap type / any odds (so, it focuses on the unexposed ones) 

Since start of 2013, before today….

154 bets / 40 wins / 69 places / 26% sr / +66 SP / +84 BFSP 

In 2018 it was 4/19,7p, +17 BFSP before today. That may be improved on now! 

Maybe I need to start posting those also. I’ve always had a ‘thing’ for that yard, i’m not sure why. I just know, a bit like Tom Lacey, that it usually doesn’t take her long to get a win with young/unexposed horses. She’s also had a circular sand gallop installed over the summer which all the big boys/girls have, and I just think they may be fitter than ever before, esp after a break, and their jumping muscles may be more developed etc. Anyway, that’s the nerd in me but i find such things fascinating. 

One ‘qualifier’ against that angle above…

3.10 Chep – Balibour 

She also has Shang Tangin the 4.15

Now, he hits another test angle haha. 🙂 But that one was 3/29, -17 last year, but 2/8,3p +12 in 2018. That simply looks at all her NH runners aged 3-5 in October/November. Of those priced 20/1 or shorter SP… 53/175, 85p, +206 BFSP since start of 2010. It’s been a bit in and out since start of 2014. +155 of that profit was in 2010/11/12.

Anyway, ignore/absorb as you please!!

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Venetia Williams/November

We have been following this for a few years now but the last two have been a bit iffy..well 2017 was 3/18,6p, 0 BFSP. 2016 was 3/17,6p, +16 BFSP.

Venetia Williams/November/Beginners Chase+Hncp chase+hncp novive chase / November / NOT 1 run only last 90 days / 16/1 or shorter SP

2012 – 126 bets / 38 wins / 59p / 30% win SR / +158 SP / +190 BFSP 

Last year we tracked into December also, because she’s been slow to start the last couple of years and that’s all been down to the lack of rain. That could be the case again this year, they could be a few weeks behind where they normally are, but fitness usually isn’t a problem when everything is firing. We shall see how it goes in the test zone this year.

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Chepstow ‘through the card’ 

I’ve run out of time sadly, apols, but plenty of Chepstow based content on here today / and in comments.

 

NOTE…

I’ve got in a right muddle with this Lavelle debacle! 🙂 Confusing myself with names I’ve given each saved system… Lavelle’s winner yesterday was an ‘autumn trainer’ qualifier, as is Balibour above. Saved now properly so won’t happen again before end of month, not sure why i got confused as have posted the others. 

 

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

52 Responses

  1. AW Season Thoughts

    I doubt many readers have any great love for the AW racing,but a 12/1 winner pays the same and with pretty uniform going there is less to consider,the contenders are much of a muchness and win in their turn,just have to find the few weeks when trainer is firing.
    Tomorrows meetings are at Chelmsford and Newcastle
    John best has 2 running at Chelmsford
    6.20 Seaquinn 12/1
    7.20 Mallarkey 8/1
    Kieran Fox has been having a poor year going 94 and 244 days without a win while Best is 43 and 141 days,but trainer and jockey combine well here,if they continue around the 20% mark,there is usually plenty of margin in the prices to have another profitable winter.
    I rarely venture to Newcastle but James Bethell usually has decent priced winners to pay to follow and has Portledge 5.40 at 9/1

    Southwell starts of next week and I still think is the sand

    1. Well done Gerry, good pick out. So good in fact Nick decided to copy you haha 🙂 Seems like you may have some fun again this winter on the sand. Top stuff.

      1. I think Nick would probably have put a little more research into his bets,Josh,but I think you can have a bit of fun and a bit of profit between here and mid feb,especially when southwell starts.Hopefully Karl Burke and Roger Fell have as good as last year

  2. Tuesdays…

    Only the one… the 12.0 outsider in a 3 horse race today, but at least my summation that it should have been the 2nd fav’ proved to be correct as it did come a respectable second without ever really troubling the fav’, beating the actual 2nd Fav’ by a good 20 lengths.

    So no cigar this time, but there’s always tomorrow. Running total -5pts.

  3. Well done on your winners today Colin. Ticking along nicely. I just realised I made a mistake with one of your bets. Instead of betting on Silver Starlight, I mistakenly bet on Cupid’s Arrow at 16/1. Romped home 🙂 My excuse is that I was on the golf course, without my glasses! Nice mistake to make. Usually happens the other way round with me.

    1. I assume the lack of glasses doesn’t affect the golf game Ken haha. He did bolt up rather well. We all deserve some luck like that every now and then! Well done.

  4. Overall loss yesterday -3.5pts ..one non runner ..loss limited by having win only bets when the price is too short (10/1 usually both for 1/4 and 1/5 odds) Ladies Dancing placing @ 18/1 SP @ 1/4 odds restricted the loss…but system still not performing well so caution advised with qualifiers for today if playing:
    12.45. Muss. Andhaar
    14.25. Muss. Island Heights
    17.50. Chelm. Athassel
    18.40. Newc. Novabridge
    19.40. Newc. Burtonwood
    20.00. Dun. Beau Satchel
    20.30. Dun. War Room
    21.00. Dun Brokopondo
    Gd Lck

  5. Mere Anarchy Chepstow 12:55 1pt e/w Price available 10/1
    Django Django Chepstow 14:35 1pt e/w Price available 10/1
    Portledge Newcastle 17:40 1pt e/w Price available 9/1

    1. woke up in a lot of pain so had time to have a good look waiting for the painkillers to kick in.
      Nottingham.
      2-50. Bahamian Sunrise 8-1
      3-20. Kodicat 7-1
      3-50. Thorntoun Care 14-1
      Musselburgh.
      3-00. Kelpies Myth 11-1
      all 1/2 pt ew
      i’ve also had a small ew in the 2-50 on Broadhaven Honey 14-1
      write ups later time allowing.

      1. I hope you feel better soon. Try a bit of meditation. I only get back ache etc, nothing serious, but it does help in clearing pain from the brain.

        I has a nice 17/2 winner in yesterdays tips. Today I like Oxwich Bay, 3.10 Chp, 1 point each way and 4.00 NC Insurplus, 1 point each way. Both circa 10/1 now.

        Good luck.

        1. so do i 🙂 ,unfortunately their not sure what it is but after numerous tests they know what it isn’t, at least they have ruled out some of the nastier options, bone cancer,MS,arthritis, gout and any sort of inflammatory disease. their best guess at the moment is calcified growths ,i’ve got them in my knuckles and shoulders. just waiting for a scan to see what that shows.

  6. Morning,

    No write ups sorry.
    12:45 @Musselburgh
    ANDHAAR 6/1 gen 1pt win
    URBAN KODE 13/2 gen 1pt win
    12:55 @Chepstow
    KAPGA DE LILLY 13/2 gen 1pt win
    MERE ANARCHY 8/1 gen 1pt win

    Good luck and hope all horses and jockeys come back safe and sound!

  7. RECENT TIPS
    Daily
    C 2.35 – Django Django on 3rd and 4th run @ 10
    C 3.10 – Llancillo Lord on 1st run @ 40
    M 12.45 – Rorys Valentine on 3rd run @ 25
    N 2.50 – Show Palace on 4th run @ 11/2
    N 3.20 – Mable Lee on 7th run @ 5
    N 6.40 – Social Butterfly on 1st run @ 11/2
    N 7.40 – Casterbridge on 3rd run @ 3
    C 7.50 – Monoxide on 3rd and 4th run @ 7
    Festival
    N 2.15 – Teruntum Star on 3rd and 4th run @ 5
    3m+
    C 2.35 – Western Climate on 4th run @ 33
    GL

    There are some weekly and to-date figs on the posts 5/11 and 29/10 I put up last night.
    Mike

  8. COLINS BETS

    Chelmsford
    5.50 Jack Nevison BOG 3/1
    5.50 Athassel BOG 25/1
    6.50 Its Not Unusual BOG 11/4

    ELITE BETS

    2.25 Musselburgh Born For War BOG 7/4
    7.40 Newcastle Another Angel BOG 7/2

    1. Evening Colin.

      Do you advise Win bets only or do you tip EW aswell?

      I’m relatively new to this members area and I’ve seen your name pop up quite a bit. Congratulations on your success.

      Cheers.

      1. Hi Stan, in case he missed it.. all his bets are 1 point win I believe. I forget what he’s up to now, but has gone through +100 points for the year to bookmakers SP, much higher if you can get BOG etc. That’s for ‘Colins Bets’ his Elite is a new test of sorts/an old angle he used to follow with some success, resurrected.

      2. Hi Stan and welcome aboard Joshs RTP,only just picked up and Josh answered your question,only advice i can pass on whoever you follow you will need separate BANKS for whoever will have losing runs.
        Josh,Nick and myself will at times have lengthy losing runs,as will all tipsters on here will.

        Colin

  9. Chris M Selections
    Nottingham:
    14:15 – Copper Knight (7/2 gen)

    Musselburgh:
    15:00 – Kelpies Myth (16/1 gen)

    Newcastle:
    19:40 – Cherry Oak (11/2 gen)

  10. 2.50 Notts Bellevarde 1.5 pts ew 16/1
    It must have been some time since I had a winning drifter with William Hill as they said they had informed me by email ( probably an old one) that my account no longer received BOG. They were unable to give me a date of the email or send a copy to a new one, things just get tougher.
    YTD: 2/0 +35.2

  11. I thought I would post a couple of horses from my Race Trace system – following trainers who target particular races and have a strike rate over 60%.
    1.50 Muss – Noah and the Ark – Donald McCain has won this 4 times in recent years from 5 runners. Seems to be drifting around 3-1, but his several of his previous winners were a similar price or bigger.
    3.50 Nott – Debatable – Michael Appleby has won this the last two years and two from two overall. Has Becky Smith booked and looked a good bet at 5-1, now 9-2.

    Andy N

    1. Cheers for Debatable Andy, nice one. Your method sounds right up my alley, do you intend to post regularly?

      Thanks again

      1. Hi Mark

        Yes, will give it a go as I have a subscription to Racing Post now. Hard work finding qualifiers otherwise.
        Cheers,
        Andy N

  12. Is still generally poor stuff for novices, can only assume that trainers are holding on for softer conditions to arrive for their better horses. So finding nothing of interest on the turf leaves me with just the 3 AW possibilities for today….

    Newc 4.00 Insurplus……. 11.5
    Chel 5.20 Saikung……… 8.0
    Chel 6.50 Roof Garden.. 10.0

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