Members Daily Post: 06/11/18 (compelete)

Lavelle Qual!! + Test x2, Section 1 (comp), test zone, updates

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack

2.Any Tips/Notes (Daily Tips/Festival Tips/other thoughts)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack

FLAT 

Redcar

2.25 – Custom Cat (micro TJC) 18/1 UP

 

JUMPS

Exeter

None. 

 

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KEY

H1/H3= HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)

G1/G3 = Geegeez GoldSpeed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated

I1/I3 =  Inform Racing Speed Ratings – Top Rated or Top 3

14,30 = Geegeez Goldtrainer form’ indicators14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr3010+ runs last 30 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr

S1-S6 : S = ‘Strategy’ and refers to the ‘advised strategies’ in the link below. S1 = ‘Strategy 1’. Added on morning of racing along with the price. w1won last start.   w2won two starts ago (tracking as of 15th Feb 2018)

NEW! Welcome Video 2018/19>>>Watch HERE>>>

The Strategies: Where should you start? Some ideas HERE>>> 

‘Flat Strategies/results‘: Flat 2017 Read HERE>>>(updated to end Sept 2018)

‘Jumps Strategies/results’: Jumps 2017/18 Read HERE>>>(updated to end Sept 2018)

Research Articles: (TTP reports/Test Zone/Monthly Articles/Big Meetings Notes) READ HERE>>>

VIDEOS: Members Repository: HERE>>> . All Public (non members only) Videos HERE>>>

IMPORTANT: More Welcome Info  HERE>>> (please read) (inc must watch videos :)) 

Contact: email:  – info@racingtoprofit.co.uk  … or failing that… racingtoprofit@gmail.com 

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2.Any Tips/Notes (Daily Tips/Festival Tips/other thoughts)

Daily Tips(2017 Sept-Dec: 31/176, +110.75) (2018: 28/315,99p, -14.2) (1 point win /1 pt EW bets) Festival Tips (2018: +152)

Daily Tips

3.15 Exet- Powerful Symbol – 1 point win – 8/1 (gen) Fell 3 out, horse fine, 9/2…painful, that’s the best he’d ever jumped up until that point! A length ahead, and hadn’t been asked at all, so frustrating, he’d have been right there at the end, he was the one overpriced on morning prices. Always annoying when you never find out. He’d have gone very close, but you have to jump and I knew that was a risk, shame he didn’t ping that like every other one. Painful. But all up ok. 

4.15 Exet – Flighty Filia– 1 point win – 16/1 (gen)  UP, abject…silly boy 🙂 – Made worse, or better!! , by the Lavelle Fact Sheet winner at 14s / 16s. 

as of 09.54, write ups…

Oh, I appear to have deleted my original write up. I’ll try and find it, damn…

Nope, no luck… in short, Powerful Symbol…could be more to come on 3rd run after wind op, he’s in form, should try and lead, and I thought 8s was overpriced, whereas everything else felt about right. He has some solid chase form to his name with plenty of his races working out well, inc last time out. It is a step up in class but this isn’t the deepest of C3s and plenty of the others have questions to answer also. His jumping is a niggle…he can hit the odd fence but was very good LTO, and hopefully an easy lead will help, but I think that risk is built into the odds.

Flighty…she’s a bit of a poke and probably not the sort to chance when i’m a bit out of form on daily tips, albeit reading the game well enough in general in recent days. She has the odd decent run, did win on the flat, and her mark looks tempting. She will race prominently and in an open race I thought she may be worth chancing at 16s. I thought she may be in there pitching over the last and she ran better than her finishing result suggests LTO I thought. She has clearly had her problems in the last couple of years but they keep persevering and this may tell us more.

 

TEST Best of the Stats Quals? (9/22,12p, +21)

2.05 Exet – God’s Own –  4/1 (gen) WON 4/1>7/2 

3.45 Exet – Flying Verse – 7/2 (gen) UP 7/2 ..ah, rain may well have scuppered but a slight risk, winner no surprise but thought selection may be better suited, but got that wrong. They should have been closer together in theory, he has seen it out best. Still, i’d have taken 1/2 on the test before the day began.

09.11…

God’s Own… I can’t help myself with him, hitting the Paddy B angle below. He had a light campaign last year but still ran well in two Grade 1s at the back end and this is the easiest race he’s run in for quite some time. He has won this race before as a six year old, has won fresh before, and I just thought that this must be his Champion Chase now. Surely this has been a plan and he will be tuned up to the minute to go well here. He’s on a good mark and if he rediscovered anything like that Punchestown form in April 2017, he’d blow these youngsters away. He finished 8L ahead of Diego Du Charmil when last seen at Sandown, and would have been closer San B but for a bad error. The latter doesn’t exactly arrive here in form. The other two, inc the fav, are Class 2 handicappers. They are fit and well so that will count for plenty, but the fav seems short enough on that basis. Clearly God’s own isn’t a Grade 1 horse anymore but if he retains a fraction of that ability it would be good enough to go close here and I expect a big run. I’d be surprised if he’s here needing it, but the market may guide.

Flying Verse…The prices of the top two look the wrong way round to my eyes here and i’ll side with the qualifier from Chris’ ‘winning hurdlers’ micro below, which i’ve borrowed from him! 🙂 This one has taken a step forward since the visor was applied- well he’s been more straightforward and more consistent. It may stop working again at some stage but hopefully not just yet. He hacked up LTO and that was the best he’s travelled – it may be no coincidence that’s because STD was on for the first time, maybe they just clicked. He looks to like decent ground and the rain got in at Newton Abbot three starts back when 3rd, with Tea Time Fred in 2nd. I’d expect him to overturn that form and the latter isn’t the most consistent and doesn’t like winning. Sam is 6/18,8p with all rides at the track in the last year and David Dennis is 5/10,7p with horses returning within 7 days in the last two years. I’ve watched his last three runs back and he does run as if this stiffer track could bring out more. That’s the reason I think he’ll overturn the form with the fav, who beat him at Bangor two starts ago in a photo. Flying Verse would have just got up I think if flying the last, but he landed on all fours. The winner there was stopping come the line whereas the selection was doing all his best work late- he runs as if he’s a more thorough stayer, and that will make more of a difference than any weight swing etc. Provided he runs his race, he will be there pitching over the last and is the one i’d want to be with. Maybe they will be 1-2 in a certain order, I was happy to leave the rest.

 

3.Micro System Test Zone

Jumps

Paddy Brennan (14/1< guide)

2.05 Exet – God’s Own 4/1 WON 4/1>7/2 

 

Fact Sheet 2018/19

Winning Hurdlers 

3.45 Exet – Fling Verse 7/2 UP

 

Trainers To Follow (late as of 10.17, apols)

4.15 Exet – Misty Bloom WON 14/1 

NOTE : a bonus winner if you backed this one. It did not officially qualify against my new Fact Sheet. I have another Lavelle angle saved, and in the panic this morning following comments below assumed he was, but that was another angle I have saved from some time ago. Too much going on sometimes, anyway, some will have backed it, majority probably not. On we go. 

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

Strategy Results Updates

Spreadsheet inc Tips / strategy summary for Oct : HERE>>>

Updates on main strategies to End Oct…

Summary, of the ‘strategies: where should you start’ for now…

FLAT

S1

OCT 2018 : 1/10,5p, -6.25

2018 to date:  23/93, 42p, +9.9

S4

OCT 2018 : 1/11,4p, -7.25

2018 to date: 40/176, 83p, +12.35

S6

OCT 2018 : 0/25,5p, -25

2018 to date: 24/196, 61p, +56.9 , +73.67 BFSP

Test Zone

OCT 2018 : 4/29,10p, +2

 

Jumps

S1

OCT 2018 : 1/17,4p, -7 , -5.5 BFSP

2018 to date: 7/87, 25p, +36 , +79 BFSP

S2A

OCT 2018 :

  • Win only : 1/15,1p, +11, +7 BFSP
  • ½ EWL 1/15,1p, +1.6
  • 1 point EW: 1/15,1p, +3.25

2018 to date:

  • Win only : 10/160, 30p, +54.6, +102.8 BFSP
  • ½ EW: 10/160, 30p, +46.1
  • 1 point EW: 10/160, 30p, +92.2

S3A

OCT 2018 : 8/24,9p, +14.45

2018 to date: 41/184, 59p, +42.86

S3A#

OCT 2018 : 5/11,5p, +11.3

2018 to date:  35/110, 50p, +55.19

w1

OCT 2018 : 6/23, 11p, +1

2018 to date: 42/139, 56p, +49.25

w2

OCT 2018 : 5/28,10p, -3.75

2018 to date: 22/119, 41p, +21.85

 

Test Zone

OCT 2018 : 5/53,10p, -6.5

+ Autumn Trainers: 5/31,9p, +0.63

2018 to date: +39.93

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Thoughts…well the only dent really was a bad end to the flat season for Flat S6, but then it was due a losing run of sorts. Still, that’s a healthy total to BFSP for the year esp BFSP, and a decent ROI.  Flat S1 + S4 may well end up being a bit pointless… I mean they are profitable and will tick along, and the ROI is solid. I suppose they are just not very exciting but in time it all adds up. +22 points between the two is ok.

In total above, ignoring the ‘test zone’ which I don’t advise backing systematically as such, there is +403 points profit sat there in 2018 to date… if backing Flat S6, Jumps S1 + S2A (win only) to BFSP, and the rest to the generally available morning odds I add around 8am.

I’ve always wanted there to be at least a +100 point portfolio from a small handful of systematic strategies based on Section 1, and it looks as though those above, as has been the case for some months now, are the place to focus. +100 points even at £2.50 per point or £5, covers subs and leaves a fair bit left over to spend as you please. It ensures some daily action, without any form analysis, while giving a foundation in which to consider attacking the various other content. But, as always, it’s about choice and following whatever you please.

I’d take +403 in the next 12 months from all those above right now!

As previously discussed…some caution as to Jumps w1 and w2. I only say that as most of those stats are built on the summer jumping qualifiers. Logically I think it should continue – especially trainers with LTO winners sending them to tracks they do well at etc, and the fact the horse is obviously in form, which counts for plenty in the jumping game. But, the winter game is more competitive and we will hit soft ground at some point. Whether that has an impact only time will tell.

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New welcome/intro video for anyone new… links in Key also updated inc welcome info link…

 

 

New Feature Posts

Adam Norman’s second article… a brilliant/informative read again… HERE>>>

 

 

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

43 Responses

    1. Thanks both, you can’t cut corners in this game but pleased we seem to have a decent enough systematic portfolio as a decent foundation/to give members choice etc. The ‘bread and butter’ . Still, always need to be thinking ahead and getting to stage I should try some private testing on odd other ratings sets maybe. But, looks like S3A# and W1 could be a +100 point a year combo just over sticks, that would be decent as well.

  1. Monday’s…….

    Plum 2.00 We’llcwhathappens….. 16.0 3rd 21.2
    Plum 2.30 Presenting Berkeley…. 12.0 Fell 7.8
    Here 2.45 Samson…………………. 16.0 2nd 13.0
    Here 3.45 Keppel Isle…………….. 12.0 Unp 7.0
    Here 4.15 Milldean Silva…………. 6.0 L 10.6
    Kemp 5.30 Plunger………………… 12.0 NR
    Kemp 6.30 Golden Iris……………. 7.5 2nd 4.65
    Kemp 7.30 Rakematiz…………….. 10.0 3rd 14.8

    So far, of the four that made the odds and were backed, we’ve had two 2nd’s and two 3rd’s so not unhappy, but would be nice to get one in the back of the net early in the trial. Running total -4pts.

    Tim

  2. One winner + 2.25 pts…3 losing win only bets (short price and 7 runners) minus .75pts on the day. Today’s Qualifiers:
    13.45. Wolv. Athassel
    13.55. Red. Twin Appeal
    14.00. FH. Ballyfinboy
    15.05. FH. Balynaclash Warrior
    15.55. Wolv. Udogo
    16.05. Red. Imperial Legend
    16.15. Exe. Ladies Dancing
    16.30. Kem. Pikes Cross Corner
    As ever, caution advised if playing…Gd Luck

  3. Nothing from me either, looked again and again at the 16:15 @Exeter, but, still couldn’t decide, so, wait till a better day i feel.
    If I was pushed think its between Double Court and Scorpion Star, but, not confident of either, only throwing shrapnel on them.

  4. RECENT TIPS
    Daily
    R 1.55 – Brother McGonagall on 4th run @ 25
    R 3.00 – Chinese Spirit on 7th run @ 5
    W 2.15 – Just Glamorous on 5th and 6th run @ 8
    K 4.30 – Barrsbrook on 4th run @ 7
    Festival
    R 1.55 – Tommy G on 4th run @ 5
    R 4.05 – Silver Starlight on 7th run @ 10
    GL

  5. Moderate stuff today. Two that might be an OK price now and then get backed:

    6.00 KP Torolight and 7.30 KP Galileo’s Spear.

    A qualifier for ‘Trainers with a 33% win strike rate in the past 30 days’ – 2.05 Exe Theo.

    Karl Burke all weather runner – 8.00KP Sunday Prospect.

    Good luck.

    1. Yep quite correct Mike thanks for your eagle eyes…he is sat there in my HRB qualifiers report, not sure how I missed him!

        1. I was going to mention it but was beaten to the punch. Spotted it last night and got 20/1 this morning.

          Well done to Colin who had the tricast in the 2.50 at Wolves plus another winner.

  6. Chris M Selections
    Wolver:
    12:35 – No Bills (10/1 gen)

    Redcar:
    14:25 – Mikmak (9/1 gen)

    Fairyhouse:
    15:40 – Fintown Boy (9/2 gen)

    Kempton:
    18:00 – In the Cove (4/1 gen)

    Good luck with any bets today 🙂

  7. COLINS BETS

    Wolverhampton
    2.50 Power Home BOG 7/2
    2.50 Whatwouldyouknow BOG 6/1
    2.50 Ravens Raft BOG 11/2
    Redcar
    1.55 Parry’s Mountain BOG 4/1
    1.55 Twin Appeal BOG 11/2
    4.05 Silver Starlight BOG 14/1

    1. Parry’s Mountain well Tim Easterby’s stable had a right punt on this one 4/1 to 7/4 they certainly expected this one to win which it did

      1. Well done Colin, decent profit assured on the day, esp to bog. Got a nice price on both those winners. Oh, and a cheeky tricast for good measure!

  8. not sure who it was , getting old memory going, but 2-3 months ago somebody did a bit of a write up on Marmelo’s chances in Melbourne cup and i had a few quid ew ante post @25’s so thank you a nice little return.

  9. Not much competitive novice action for me today. Several I fancy but they’re all 1st or 2nd fav’s and would need to drift out to a level that would most likely put me them off if they did. So only the one possibility for me today. I make it second best given the sire’s excellent form given today’s race conditions, but find it’s the outsider of the 3 runners. So let’s just hope the pace collapses as is often the case in these types of event and the hot fav’ gets scuppered.

    Exe 2.40 Hoo Bally Diva…….. 6.0

    1. Quite! Can’t believe I missed it on first post, as didn’t put it up until after tipping was all done! Damn, still I won’t complain but she was unexposed at least and yard red hot. I won’t complain.

      1. Didn’t the Lavelle angle require at least one career win or is this the Autumn trainers angle? I’m losing track!

          1. Ah ok. The point I was trying to make was that in that angle it specifies the horse must already have won at least once if I’m reading it correctly, which meant it shouldn’t have been a qualifier. Who cares if you backed it!!

          2. Ahhh!!
            Would appear I was right all along.

            He doesn’t hit that Fact sheet angle
            He hit another one I was tracking haha. I need to re-label my Lavelle micros as clearly getting confused!
            So, a bonus winner for some.

  10. Hi everyone,off to chepstow tomorrow,any advice, opinions would be greatly appreciated.
    Cheers All.
    Excellent day today by the way with all input.
    Well done

    1. Hi Sticher, i’ll see if I have time for a brief ‘through the card’ ! 🙂 But yep flick through comments etc as someone will fancy something no doubt.
      Josh

  11. Josh well done on the Best Of The Stats another winner from 2 bets moving along nicely

    Is this fake news heard that you are renaming your Daily Tips to Daily Lay Ha ha only joking,but what is happening you are on a terrible run sure you will turn it around soon,my wallet hopes so.

    Cheers

    Colin

    1. Oh I have no idea. Well they are running ok, my big odds eyes clearly not working at the moment! I mean -14 isn’t terrible, it’s not great if you started when they were +30, but hopefully the festival pile is soothing any current wounds! 🙂 Albeit they are on a losing run also from their high. More focus required. It will get there. Need to be more patient.

  12. well my interpretation of the angle ( trimmed a little admittedly 🙂 certainly picked up the lavelle runner i am obviously pleased to say 🙂
    Race Data – All of these categories specify only the types of races included.
    Race Distance NOT Between 5f And 1m4.5f
    Race Class Class 3 Class 4 Class 5
    handicap
    H Race Type Chase Hurdle NH Flat
    H-Run (NH Race Type) Between 0 And 6
    NOT any of the below jockeys :
    Coleman, A
    Trainer Lavelle, Miss E C

    keep up the good work everyone 🙂
    p.s. there is another lavelle qualifier tomoz 😉

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