Members Daily Post: 05/11/18 (complete)

results x2, Test tip x1, Section 1 (complete), test zone

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack

2.Any Tips/Notes (Daily Tips/Festival Tips/other thoughts)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack

JUMPS 

Plumpton

3.00- 

Royal Hall (hncp hurdle) w2 w1 H1 I1 G1 7/4 S4 UR

Ramore Will (hncp hurdle + mircro TJC) ES+ H3 9/2 S3A

3.30 – Turban (all hncps)ES+ H1 I1 G3 2/1 S3A# S4 WON 9/4 

 

Hereford

No stats profile. 

 

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KEY

H1/H3= HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)

G1/G3 = Geegeez GoldSpeed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated

I1/I3 =  Inform Racing Speed Ratings – Top Rated or Top 3

14,30 = Geegeez Goldtrainer form’ indicators14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr3010+ runs last 30 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr

S1-S6 : S = ‘Strategy’ and refers to the ‘advised strategies’ in the link below. S1 = ‘Strategy 1’. Added on morning of racing along with the price. w1won last start.   w2won two starts ago (tracking as of 15th Feb 2018)

NEW! Welcome Video 2018/19>>> Watch HERE>>>

The Strategies: Where should you start? Some ideas HERE>>> 

‘Flat Strategies/results‘: Flat 2017 Read HERE>>>(updated to end Sept 2018)

‘Jumps Strategies/results’: Jumps 2017/18 Read HERE>>>(updated to end Sept 2018)

Research Articles: (TTP reports/Test Zone/Monthly Articles/Big Meetings Notes) READ HERE>>>

VIDEOS: Members Repository: HERE>>> . All Public (non members only) Videos HERE>>>

IMPORTANT: More Welcome Info  HERE>>> (please read) (inc must watch videos :)) 

Contact: email:  – info@racingtoprofit.co.uk  … or failing that… racingtoprofit@gmail.com 

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2.Any Tips/Notes (Daily Tips/Festival Tips/other thoughts)

Daily Tips(2017 Sept-Dec: 31/176, +110.75) (2018: 28/313,99p, -12.2) (1 point win /1 pt EW bets) Festival Tips (2018: +152)

Daily Tips

NONE today.

I had a good look at Stage Summit in the 2.45 Hereford, but 11/2 or so just felt a bit skinny, given it’s his first run of the season and his first over fences in public. I had a look due to his run in an Ascot maiden hurdle where he ran well, probably on ground softer than ideal. It could indicate that one day he will show a mark of 118 to be fairly lenient – that could be today. Those to have run since from that race are 10/34,18p… three of the four in front have since won five races between them and have ratings in the mid 130s. I like the fact they haven’t wasted time before going chasing here, and they run him at a track where he’s gone well before. I think he needs decent ground. The yard are in fine form, and Pauling is 4/14,6p in handicap novice chases / 0 runs 90 days /0 runs in chases in career … that improves to 4/8,5p with those sent off 8/1 or shorter! The horse should race prominently also. Maybe in that stats context 11/2 is a decent price, but that is the sort i’d want a bit bigger on but he ticks many boxes. The Hobbs horse is the solid one but he’s open to anything with more in hand here. Anyway, use that info as you please. Were he a stats qualifier on this page somewhere, I may well have tipped him in the test below, where i’m a bit more cavalier with those under 8s…

 

TEST Best of the Stats Quals? (8/21,11p, +18)

3.00 Royal Hall – 7/4 (gen) UR second flight, picked the wrong one with Turban bolting up, read that wrong. Damn. 

As of 8.36…. he looks solid here, clear top rated on all the figures, in the form of his life and given this is just the 7th handicap hurdle of his life, still open to further progress. I wouldn’t want to be on anything else in this race. He’s got course form, has the tactical speed for this trip but also stays further – if he hits the front at any stage that could be game over for the rest. He’s got plenty of ‘hot form’ also, his recent wins, and even that AW 3rd, have had subsequent winners in and around him – including Exitas LTO who’s a good horse and who won well at Aintree in that decent veterans handicap chase. On what they have achieved, he should be an evens money shot in this to my eyes and he’s the only C3 winner in the field. The Newland horse is interesting but has stamina to prove- he could well step up for the new trip but you’d want a bigger price to find out. Ramore Will has yet to prove he can win fresh and again may be short given the fitness questions and has to prove his class. Ding Ding may be of some interest but is more exposed than the others. She did win this last year when a C4, but this could be hot enough, despite only 4 runners. Of course these 4 runner races can make an assessment of ‘class’ irrelevant and on ratings the Dr’s is a better horse, but a new trip. Royal Hall will stop improving at some stage and the number of runs will catch up eventually, but he could bring up the four timer here and looks to have been well placed. He’s the one to beat if he runs  his race and my hunch is that Ding Ding may give him the most to think about, as this may well have been the plan and she ran well to a point on her reappearance.

That’s it for the test.. I looked at Turban but he’s 11 and looks a bit out of sorts. Even in that small field 2s didn’t feel overly generous. That race is all about the Bridgewater horse… for future reference you may wish to note that with all chasers returning 365 or more days off the track, he’s 5/23,7p +32 in his training career. If he’s a1, I suspect he wins that, but his price seems about right. I could have turban wrong but was happy to leave- he is the one ‘been there and done it’ horse in the race. Chasing Headlights is OR 69 and hasn’t showed himself in love with chasing yet, but the CP seemed to work LTO when I think I tipped him. But, the top two are 99 and 101, and it’s asking plenty for both to run nowhere near their marks I think, esp at 5s or so, but it’s one of those races and if DBs doesn’t perform, he or Turban should take this. I’ll sit it out.

I’ll now have a flick through the cards more generally and see if anything else worth tipping in the daily tips.

Sunday was my first double I think, when just putting up two horses on these pages, and both hacked up as I thought they might. Clearly we will be in dreamland if I can repeat that profit pile every 20 bets, which is probably unsustainable but i’ll keep chipping away. Backing winners is good for the mind! Both the biggies ran well yesterday also. The daily tip should have been battling it out with Twisters over the last but got a very strange ride from Dicky. He could have moved him close much sooner. Twisters may have been one that got away – he had the best hurdles form by some way- graded form- and even if just running up to his mark, rather than improving, the rest had a bit to find. There was me thinking the yard were going cold! 1/27  in the prev 14 days before Sunday, but he had a double there, so he’s hit the time of year when they are hard to predict.

The free tip came a decent EW 3rd, finishing best of them from out the back. I knew he’d be held up as he’s a tricky sort, but had he held a more prominent position, even mid pack, he’d have won that I think, but never mind, a small profit on the race.

 

3.Micro System Test Zone

Jumps

A Dunn (25/1< guide)

3.30 P – Chasing Headlights 11/2

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

Strategy Results Updates

Spreadsheet inc Tips / strategy summary for Oct : HERE>>>

Updates on main strategies to End Oct to follow…

Summary, of the ‘strategies: where should you start’ link…

FLAT

S1

OCT 2018 : 1/10,5p, -6.25

2018 to date:  23/93, 42p, +9.9

S4

OCT 2018 : 1/11,4p, -7.25

2018 to date: 40/176, 83p, +12.35

S6

OCT 2018 : 0/25,5p, -25

2018 to date: 24/196, 61p, +56.9 , +73.67 BFSP

Test Zone

OCT 2018 : 4/29,10p, +2

 

Jumps

S1

OCT 2018 : 1/17,4p, -7 , -5.5 BFSP

2018 to date: 7/87, 25p, +36 , +79 BFSP

S2A

OCT 2018 :

  • Win only : 1/15,1p, +11, +7 BFSP
  • ½ EWL 1/15,1p, +1.6
  • 1 point EW: 1/15,1p, +3.25

2018 to date:

  • Win only : 10/160, 30p, +54.6, +102.8 BFSP
  • ½ EW: 10/160, 30p, +46.1
  • 1 point EW: 10/160, 30p, +92.2

 

S3A

OCT 2018 : 8/24,9p, +14.45

2018 to date: 41/184, 59p, +42.86

 

S3A#

OCT 2018 : 5/11,5p, +11.3

2018 to date:  35/110, 50p, +55.19

 

w1

OCT 2018 : 6/23, 11p, +1

2018 to date: 42/139, 56p, +49.25

 

w2

OCT 2018 : 5/28,10p, -3.75

2018 to date: 22/119, 41p, +21.85

 

Test Zone

OCT 2018 : 5/53,10p, -6.5

+ Autumn Trainers: 5/31,9p, +0.63

2018 to date: +39.93

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Thoughts… well the only dent really was a bad end to the flat season for Flat S6, but then it was due a losing run of sorts. Still, that’s a healthy total to BFSP for the year esp BFSP, and a decent ROI.  Flat S1 + S4 may well end up being a bit pointless… I mean they are profitable and will tick along, and the ROI is solid. I suppose they are just not very exciting but in time it all adds up. +22 points between the two is ok.

In total above, ignoring the ‘test zone’ which I don’t advise backing systematically as such, there is +403 points profit sat there in 2018 to date… if backing Flat S6, Jumps S1 + S2A (win only) to BFSP, and the rest to the generally available morning odds I add around 8am.

I’ve always wanted there to be at least a +100 point portfolio from a small handful of systematic strategies based on Section 1, and it looks as though those above, as has been the case for some months now, are the place to focus. +100 points even at £2.50 per point or £5, covers subs and leaves a fair bit left over to spend as you please. It ensures some daily action, without any form analysis, while giving a foundation in which to consider attacking the various other content. But, as always, it’s about choice and following whatever you please.

I’d take +403 in the next 12 months from all those above right now!

As previously discussed…some caution as to Jumps w1 and w2. I only say that as most of those stats are built on the summer jumping qualifiers. Logically I think it should continue – especially trainers with LTO winners sending them to tracks they do well at etc, and the fact the horse is obviously in form, which counts for plenty in the jumping game. But, the winter game is more competitive and we will hit soft ground at some point. Whether that has an impact only time will tell.

 

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

30 Responses

  1. Reading some of the posts on here and other Forums its obvious that many are early on in their mission to beat the books. The demon with statistical betting or any mechanical system is the feeling of complete loss of control when results go tits up. Even for form junkies and market followers nuts tend to tighten with losers. What many fail to realise is Psychology plays a huge part of Gambling in any form and acknowledgement of those forces ingrained in our psychic need to be understood.

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    Your Money and Your Brain How the New Science of … – Invest Impactly

  2. U.S.Racing Tip – Santa Anita race 8, 10.50 UK time, Kazan, 1 point each way, 13/2. If we go to 7 runners then 1 point win. If a non runner then Prince Earl same bet.

    Profit update tomorrow. Good luck.

  3. Sunday’s…..

    Cork 2.10…. Clara Sorrento 14.0……. 2nd @ 19.1 🙁
    Hunt 2.50…. Sad Eyed Dylan 7.0……. Unp’ @ 3.86 (2 NR’s did us a favour) 🙂
    Carl 3.10…. Aspen Colarado 11.5…… Won @ 7.2 🙁

    So -1pt on the day. Back about 12.00 tomorrow morning, but it don’t look very competitive so not expecting a lot of possibilities.

    Tim

  4. minus 2 and one non runner yesterday…Today’s Qualifiers. Caution advised.
    13.45. Hereford. Aristocracy
    14.15. Hereford. Hopes Wishes
    15.30. Plump. Turban
    15.45. Hereford. Accessallareas.
    Gd Lck.

  5. one for today,
    Hereford 1-45. Phangio 12-1 sky 4 places 1pt ew, below last winning mark and the headgear worn then returns, acts on going and has won over distance.
    full result update to follow later.

    1. last weeks results. staked 13 pts, returns 5.85 pts, down 7.15pts.
      results to date. staked 48.5 pts, returns 70.10 pts, up 21.60 pts.
      these are the results of my actual bets and include bog on most.

  6. Morning,

    13:45 Hereford
    APACHEE PRINCE 11/2 gen 1pt win
    Was top on my form ratings and has a bit of speed, albeit a bit one paced, if he gets a lead, which I’m hoping they should let him do in this conditions race, he could gallop them all into submission!
    GEORGINA JOY 15/2 gen 1/2pt ew
    Been running quite consistently of late, allegedly something was amiss lto, hopefully rectified this time, price was 12/1 on opening yesterday evening, so, someone has had a nibble. We shall see..
    As always good luck and hope all horses and jockeys come back safe and sound.

    1. Morning,

      Will start to record from now on a weekly / monthly basis.
      Last weeks
      13 bets 4 winners
      14pts profit at early prices (E.P.)
      8.5pts profit at Starting Price (S.P.)
      Quite a difference there I think you’ll agree.
      I know I have tipped before, but, will keep on top of recording things on here, to help with the profit/loss moving forward. Nice little experiment for me anyways!

      1. Thanks Stewart, yes no need to over exert on the results front 🙂 The prices you get is just fine, but monthly rolling as a min I think is useful, esp if you are going to post regularly. I’d be interested in BFSP ahead of SP, suspect that may be higher than SP even after commission but who knows. Making profit to SP is brilliant if you can, i’ve no idea how Colin does it.

      2. Stewart, I’ve only been here six months or so but remember your tips catching the eye before your bream. Do you have any previous stats at all? Thanks

  7. RECENT TIPS
    Daily
    P 3.30 – Chasing Head;ights on 5th run @ 7/2
    H 3.45 – Hands of Stone on 1st run @ 4
    K 7.30 – Vincents Forever on 6th run @ 20
    GL

    1. w/e 4/11 figs

      Daily runners = 24
      Winners = 3 @ bog 11/2, 12, 11/2 @ sp 11/2, 12, 3
      p/l @ bog + 2
      p/l @ sp – 0.5
      There were 1 plcs @ bog 25 @ sp 25

      Festival runners = 13
      Winners = 2 @ 5, 5 bog @ 5, 5
      p/l @ bog – 1
      p/l @ sp – 1
      There were 1 plcs @ bog 14 , @ sp 14

      3m+ runners = 6
      Winners = 0 @ bog , @ sp
      p/l @ bog – 6
      p/l @ sp – 6
      there were 0 / 1 plcs @ bog @ sp 12

      PLACES @ 10’s+ DO NOT INCLUDE WINS

  8. Chris M Selections
    Noting from me today, can’t find much to catch my eye. Did look quite closely at the 6:30 Kempton, Golden Iris and Ventura Blues were almost bets but too many niggles against them and a few improves in the field.

    Results:
    Re-Cap w/c 22/10/18:
    14 bets – 3 winners & 1 NR
    S/R: 23.08%
    ROI: 123.08%
    P/L: +16 pts

    Overall:
    463 bets – 80 winnners and 12 N/R
    S/R: 17.78%
    ROI: +10.47%
    P/L: +48.66 pts

    June: -10.4 pts
    July: +33.68 pts
    August: -0.97 pts
    Sept: P/L+30.25 pts, ROI: 55%, SR: 20% (58 bets, 11 winner, 3 N/R)
    October: -0.9 pts, ROI: -1.45%, SR: 11.29% (64 bets, 7 winners, 2NR)
    November: -4pts (ongoing)

    Well Tuesday last week saved my bacon for the month, if someone would have told me last Monday that I would end up less than 1 point down for the month I would have laughed but that’s betting for you. Still overall a poor month in my opinion, I know I can do better. Some nice rain showers to bring some cut to the ground and get the winter NH runners on the go would be welcomed in November.

  9. 1.45 Her, Aristocracy, 2 points each way at 5/1 BOG. I think that this horse has more to come and can show up in a lowly event.

    6.30 KP, Private View, 2 points win at 7/2 BOG. Stoute handicapper on the sand and can exploit its mark.

    5.30 KP Guvenor’s Choice, 1 point each way at 9/1. Karl Burke all weather runner.

    Good luck.

  10. Tuesday 0400 Gold Cup
    I’m backing Nakeeta this year to improve on his first attempt and having had a specific prep. for the race this time.
    Was drawn wide in 2017 but has the inner this time (and a change of jockey?), so I think a real chance to get closer than the 5.5l deficit last year. 100/1 with B365.

  11. Hi Traf69

    Thank you all at GG with the freebie Trainer Track Stats that you put up for us all,slow start in October,losing me – 2 points,however November started with a bang with 4 winners from 5 on saturday,my profit for November is + 24 points.
    Once again thank you

  12. Today’s…

    Plum 2.00 Wellcwhathappens….. 16.0
    Plum 2.30 Presenting Berkeley…. 12.0
    Here 2.45 Samson…………………. 16.0
    Here 3.45 Keppel Isle…………….. 12.0
    Here 4.15 Milldean Silva…………. 6.0
    Kemp 5.30 Plunger………………… 12.0
    Kemp 6.30 Golden Iris……………. 7.5
    Kemp 7.30 Rakematix…………….. 10.0

    Looks a lot but not expecting many will be taken on price.

    Tim

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