3.15 Cork – The Gatechecker – 1 point EW- 10/1 (gen, 4 places)
I had a brief look at the trends for this race and a winning profile of sorts… ran 11-45 days ago, Top 5 LTO, (5/10 won LTO), 0-2 handicap chase wins (1-2 best). That profile finds the last 10 winners (10/48,16p, +81).
Those that hit this profile.. Minella Beau / The Gatechecker / Sizing Rome / Major Destination / Velocity Boy / Justmemyselfandi / Hugo N Taz
The Gatechecker…on what they have achieved to date he is by far the best of those in that list to my eyes and 10s looks a decent enough price. If he runs his race i’d be disappointed were he out the places here. He’s only one of two LTO winners in the field, Sizing Rome being the other, and that’s a big positive in this race historically. He’s in the form of his life and won an ok chase two starts back with plenty in hand. He looks to be going the right way and this may have been the plan, given they protected his chase mark with a hurdles run LTO, where he was well handicapped against his chase mark. He’s fit, in form, and it now looks as though everything is clicking. He has the right level of experience for a race like this but at the same time promise of more to come. The trainer has only had one runner in the race in the last decade and that came a decent 3rd. Mark Walsh stays on and he gets on well with the horse, and it’s not impossible he had the choice of the two JP horses in this. I tipped Timiyan LTO where he didn’t run that well but knowing my luck and my record of LTO losing tips winning on their next start, he’ll now run his race! Anyway, this is the one I wanted to be on. He runs as if he will relish this trip but there’s only one way to find out. This horse can be a bit of a monkey but seems to have turned a corner since they changed his work rider at home – apparently the young french girl speaks to him in a way that gets his mind focused on the job! Hopefully he jumps off fine and gets into a rhythm and I have something to cheer as they turn for home.
Leaving an Elliot/Mullins horse may be dangerous in a race like this, but the former is 0/8,0p with his runners in this to date. I thought Minella Beau needs to step up and lacked experience, but he is unexposed with more to come and the trainer is red hot, as always!
Best of luck.