Members Daily Post: 04/11/18 (Tipsx1/Test x2/complete)

Tipsx1, test x2/Section 1 (comp), test zone

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack

2.Any Tips/Notes (Daily Tips/Festival Tips/other thoughts)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack

JUMPS

Carlisle

1.30 – Knockrobin (nov hncp) 25/1 S2A  3rd 25/1 

2.05 – 

Barrys Jack (micro dist) 16/1 S2A 

Tickerty Boo (m dist) 18/1 S2A 

2.40- Blakemount (hncp chase + m TJC) G1 10/1 S1 S2 

 

Huntingdon

2.50 – Darebin (m dist/age/runs) H3 I1 2/1 

3.55 – King Cool (hncp h + m runs) w1 H3 I3 10/3 

 

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KEY

H1/H3= HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)

G1/G3 = Geegeez GoldSpeed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated

I1/I3 =  Inform Racing Speed Ratings – Top Rated or Top 3

14,30 = Geegeez Goldtrainer form’ indicators14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr3010+ runs last 30 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr

ES –‘Elite Squad’ qualifiers:  Flat : HER

ES +Elite Squad ‘Plus’ +   … those stats from stats packs with 10+ winners, 25% win strike rate. 

S1-S6 : S = ‘Strategy’ and refers to the ‘advised strategies’ in the link below. S1 = ‘Strategy 1’. Added on morning of racing along with the price. w1won last start.   w2won two starts ago (tracking as of 15th Feb 2018)

The Strategies: Where should you start? Some ideas HERE>>> (updated end Sept 2018)

‘Flat Strategies/results‘: Flat 2017 Read HERE>>>(updated to end Sept 2018)

‘Jumps Strategies/results’: Jumps 2017/18 Read HERE>>>(updated to end Sept 2018)

Research Articles: (TTP reports/Test Zone/Monthly Articles/Big Meetings Notes) READ HERE>>>

VIDEOS: Members Repository: HERE>>> . All Public (non members only) Videos HERE>>>

IMPORTANT:Welcome Info  HERE>>> (please read) (inc must watch videos :)) 

Contact: email:  – info@racingtoprofit.co.uk  … or failing that… racingtoprofit@gmail.com 

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2.Any Tips/Notes (Daily Tips/Festival Tips/other thoughts)

Daily Tips(2017 Sept-Dec: 31/176, +110.75) (2018: 28/313,99p, -12.2) (1 point win /1 pt EW bets) Festival Tips (2018: +152)

Daily Tips

1.30 Carl – Jammin Masters – 1 point win – 9/1 (bet365/SB/BetfS) 17/2 gen 2nd..frustrating, I know he gets further, but way he finished suggested he was fit and ground was fine, annoyed they were not more aggressive on him there, as I think could have won that but never mind. He’s got some nice chases in him. Carnage in that race, but winner did it well and was the classy one on hurdles form. Thought he def wanted it softer and Twister 1/27 last 14 days before today, I thought they may be going off the boil! 

I want to have a go at this one as he could be a chaser to follow this year. The yard are in decent form and the booking of Johnson intrigued me- he’d have had the choice between this one and Lacey’s I think, will have ridden both at home I suspect, and he’s won on this one before. I like the fact he has some chase experience already, a couple of decent 2nd in hunter chases when trained in Ireland and the horse that beat him in the last of those has run well twice in recent weeks, hacking up off 118, and a decent 3rd off 129 in the Munster National a couple of weeks ago. Connections have always thought chasing is his game. Good ground looks fine based on those two efforts, he stays further and he races prominently. I expect Johnson to be aggressive and his booking suggests he may be ready to go first time out here. He has some ok enough hurdles form to his name, knows how to win, and responds well to pressure. The market may guide as to fitness but i’ll roll the dice here as he looked interesting. Russell’s looks of some interest but chasing is new to him, as it is to many in here, and his wins were in deep mud. But, he is a danger i think if a1. Nicholls has a great record at the track and his is of interest but was turned over at 8/13 when last seen and has a question about him now. But he does have fitness on his side which could count for plenty and we have him covered with Nick! Hopefully one of these two can take it. Lacey’s could be a danger also and has been nibbled, and maybe i’ve read the jockey bookings wrong, we shall see.

That’s all for tips in the members’ posts, i’ve got 30 minutes left to look at that big Cork race in the free post, i’ll see if I land on anything…

 

TEST Best of the Stats Quals? (6/18,9p, +12.375)

2.40 Carl – Looksnowtlikebrian – 3/1 (gen) WON 4/1 

4.15 Carl – Alright Sunshine – 11/4 (gen)

09.49, write ups on the way…

Looksnowtlikebrian… one from the handicap chase system starting points below which looks at LTO chase winners and ticks along at  30% win SR. I think if this one stays on his feet he will win this fairly well, and thus 3s could be a decent price. He can hit a fence although never looks like coming down and he’s entitled to still be improving in that department. I also think he will relish the extra 1.5f here as he was doing all his best work late at the track last time, and was well enough on top come the line to my eyes. He’s still young and unexposed and may have tightened up from that last run,although was clearly fit enough. This is about whether he runs his race/jumps, as if he does, he wins I think. Most in here have searching questions to answer. Cooking Fat was just behind him last time but has also gone up in the weights, doesn’t look as progressive, and i’m not sure will relish this trip as much as the selection. Blakemount is an S1 qualifier and strange things can happen with those! I’ve my S1 stake on, but my head says he has plenty to prove as he was too bad to be true when last seen, even if needing the run. We shall see. Harry The Viking… I won’t be shocked if he’s in the places here. He won this last year, doesn’t like deep mud, and this could be his gold cup. He will be tuned to the minute for this, will race right up there, and won’t be stopping. He is 13 and surely younger legs will have him, but if the selection makes errors, it’s not impossible he picks up the pieces. As they turn for home I suspect he’ll be the one they all have to get past. But he isn’t getting any younger.

Alright Sunshine… one from the Dalgleish fact sheet angle here… well he could blow this lot away as he’s fairly well bred with a lot of speed. He could just be far too quick for this lot, if tuned up and ready to go. Jockey bookings would suggest he could be. If i’m going to back an unraced NHF horse I want the yard to be in form, esp at this price point, and the stats to stack up. KD is 7/24,10p in the last 14 days, 8/24,16p with all NHF runners the last 2 years, 1/3,3p with those at the track, and trainer/jockey are 4/12,8p when teaming up in NHF races. Solid. He ticks all the boxes you want really with this type. He may need the run/experience, but if he’s ready to go he could win this under hands and heels, eased down. I think KD is 1/2,2p in this very race the last two years. Cue the unfancied one bolting up!

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3.Micro System Test Zone

Jumps

D McCain (14/1< guide)

2.40 Carl – Lough Derg Jewel  12/1

Jonjo Hncp Debut 

2.05 Carl – Bahama Moon (10/1< best, 16/1< ok) 7/1 3rd 12/1 (notebook, may want further but he has a few weak handicaps in him, his best run of career to date, no surprise given on handicap debut! 7s was too short this morning for tipping purposes I thought, not sure what i’d have done were he 12s! 

 

Fact Sheet 2018/19

Trainers to follow (Lacey/Dalgleish/Lavelle)

1.30 Carl – Coningsby 12/1 UP (ran out, a monkey)

3.45 Carl- Thomas Patrick  4/1

4.15 Carl – Alright Sunshine 11/4/ Beast of Belstane  12/1 (both 11/1< guide)

Jockeys/chasers

3.15 Cork – Georges Conn  50/1

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Handicap Chase System Starting Points (10/1< best)

2.40 Carl – Looksnowtlikebrian 3/1 WON 4/1 

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

32 Responses

  1. For all new members to RTP and Gordon Roberts.
    If you are going to back alongside me with Colins bets then i recommend that you have a bank of 100 bets ie at £10 a bet you would need a bank of £1000.
    when bank becomes £1500 your bet will be £15
    when bank becomes £2000 your bet will be £20
    when bank becomes £2500 your bet will be £25
    Starting with £5 a bet your bank would be £500
    The beauty of this staking plan is that you are only ever risking your original bank of £1000.
    You must keep the bank for the bets and you cannot draw money out until you have built up enough that you are happy with then draw out.
    Whoever you wish to follow then you must have a separate bank for each one.

    1. Hi Colin, your advice about staking and having a big enough bank is sound advice and is good to be reminded of sometimes. I try to set targets with my roll for the next increase and sometimes decrease in stake which I think is just as important more for mindset rather than profit/loss. It can become quite painful when those long losing runs keep on coming with the occasional false dawn of a couple of winners! So decreasing the stakes takes the panic/ hair pulling / nail biting away for me. I have several tipsters and methods like many others and when I see that most and sometimes all are performing badly I tend to take my foot off the gas and let it ride, much better for the mood I find. I don’t really agree with you about having a separate bank for each tipster though as I see it as more of a portfolio where individual tipsters can be switched off or reduced stake wise accordingly but we’re all different. Anyway if I’m right in thinking you’ve had a tough few months and are turning the corner now which is great and long may it continue for you. I haven’t included you in my portfolio yet for two reasons, one because it’s full and two I have been so busy with work it’s difficult managing what I’ve got already as I’ve made numerous rushed cock-ups along the way and adding to that will only add more! Best of luck to you for the future.

      1. Hi Chris
        For me separate banks are a must for anyone having say five tipsters or methods that they are backing,then at some stage they hit a losing run at the same time you can reduce the stakes but at some stage you will have to top up the single bank.
        Have had 6 winning months out of 10 and in November from 4 bets profit is + 7.5 points all level win stakes at Bookmakers SP + 100 points up this year which is outstanding,my experience of tipsters they do not believe in recording Bookmakers SP,and after adding BOG in June for a comparison i can claim fantastic figures and many of my bets are well backed but i have the courage to record my performance with Bookmakers SP.
        If your tipsters are out performing me at Bookmakers SP me then please send me a list Excluding NICK,However will be interesting to see my BOG figures over a year are.
        BOG/Early price
        June + 10.35
        July + 37.62
        Aug – 4.78
        Sep + 15.60
        Oct + 26.33 Total + 85.12
        Also 2 bookmakers have to show a price before i will put it up,most tipsters will use only 1 who stands alone and no one can get the price only serial losers.
        Most years when i had my tipping service only had 1 or 2 losing months per year at BOG/Early prices

        1. That’s fantastic results recording to SP Colin, bloody fantastic! How many bets do you average per week and what range are most of your bets in? Oh one final thing, what sort of time do you post usually?

          1. Place bets between 10 to 10.30 most mornings.

            Had a long Sunday on here will look at my book another day,but do strongly recommend a bank of 100 bets and build up the profits in time.
            If you had a bank of 50 and had 30 loses then that is 60% of your bank gone along with a lot of confidence and i become known as a Banker been there got the T shirt.

  2. COLINS BETS

    No bet today

    November Bookmakers SP + 7.5 points to 1 point win BOG + 7.5 points 2 winners from 4 bets

    Possible bet on the New Thread will decide later

    1. Hi Colin
      not sure if this has been asked before but I’ve not read it, the bets you put up are from another Colin and not by yourself?

      1. No!… think of ‘Colin’s Bets’ as the branding! 🙂 They are his bets, but helps separate from any other horses he may discuss including this new thread, and if you see Colins bets, you know they are his tips!

      2. Started up another old method of mine which i revisited or watched for the past 2 years but did not record them till i backed the bets in October,my name is at the bottom of the bets Colin Leafe and have only had 2 bets in November one 2nd at SP 9/1 and the other winning at 9/2 BOG 11/2.
        To stop any confusion will name it Elite which was a name i used when tipping with Optimum Racing.

  3. No write ups sorry, trying to get on before prices go on one of them!?
    I know they are literally 2nd/3rd favourites, but, can bet non runners will do me over, so, better night before!
    14:05 @Carlisle
    Take a Break 11/2 hills 1pt win
    Bahama Moon 11/2 sky 1pt win
    14:40
    Cooking Fat 6.2/1 Bfxchange 1pt win
    Bako de la Saulaie 6/1 BetfairXchange 1pt win
    Good luck and hope all horses and jockeys come back safe and sound!

    1. Good week for you Kev. I’m quite enjoying just sitting back and following you and Colin. Keep them coming.

      1. Thanks hope it continues on the same trajectory, losing runs inevitable of course, so the bank methodology described by Colin is crucial. Good luck to all

  4. very poor week so far, 2 for today at Carlisle.
    2-05 Green Zone 11-1 1pt ew, very consistent runner has won off a higher mark than this slight worry is the drop in trip.
    3-10 One For Harry 9-1 1pt ew, dual C&D winner could do with a bit more rain ideally and mark is a bit high but most have question marks or looks to be a pipe opener for them
    that’s all for tips but i will mention Tir Dubh Huntingdon 3-55, i’ve been waiting for her to show some return to form but to no avail but being a glutton for punishment i’ll give her one more chance , runs today off 76 was rated 100+

  5. One non runner and one loser yesterday = -1pt. Qualifiers today. Caution advised
    14.30. Naas. Castle Guest
    14.50. Hunt. Un Beau Roman.
    Gd Lck if playing.

  6. -1pt yesterday…..one non runner..Today’s Qualifiers…Caution advised.
    14.30. Naas. Castle Guest
    14.50. Hunt. Un Beau Roman.
    Gd Lck if playing

  7. Risk And Roll Carlisle 13:30 1pt e/w-9/1 available-I was drawn to this race by the fact that all bar two are making their seasonal re-appearances and the other one that isn’t is coming off a 2 month break. Nicholls also rarely brings a horse up here and is 5/7 in the past 5 years at the track. The horse gets a massive 4yr old weight for age allowance which i know the trainer likes to exploit and he generally does well with his 4yr old chasers 18/57, 30p. He has placed in a listed race in France and is 2/2 in class 3s so far. Should come on for the run and looked to have a solid chance.
    Chtibello Carlisle 15:10 1.5pt win-9/2 available-I don’t get why this one isn’t favourite. He was running well in graded company most of last season and the handicapper has been very lenient I thought. If this was 2m on soft he would probably be an odds on shot but his Scottish Hurdle win was on ground no too different than today and I think its worth trying this longer trip and no reason why he won’t be able to handle. Trainer is 2/4, 3p +16 in handicap hurdles at the track. This looks by far the easiest race he has raced in some time. On top of that most of his main rivals are making their seasonal debut and the ones that aren’t don’t appear to amount to much.

  8. RECENT TIPS
    Festival
    N 3.00 – Whiskey Sour on 2nd, 4th and 5th run @ 18
    …………Makitorix on 2nd run @ 33
    3m+
    C 3.15 – Rogue Angel on 4th run @ 7
    …………Timiyan on 1st run @ 16
    GL

  9. ELITE
    To stop any confusion my second betting portfolio will be known ELITE which was the name i used when tipping for Optimum Racing for was already using my own name on another line and will be total separate from COLINS BETS which will stay the same.

    3.10 Carlisle Dubai Angel BOG 13/2

    It is an old method which i used many years ago and have been watching it again over the past 2 years which did not record,decided to start backing them in October which produced 11 winners from 65 bets returning a profit of + 21.5 points level stakes at Bookmakers SP did not record BOG.
    November had 2 bets the first finishing 2nd at 9/1 and a winner SP 9/2 BOG 11/2.
    Ken Mckenzie latched on to them and hopefully more would have.

    The bet will only be recorded from 1 November 2018 and if you decide to follow this method and Colins Bets then i strongly advice 2 separate BANKS.

  10. Had a corking past couple of weeks so decided to enter into the spirit on here by attempting to spread my good fortune out a little. Probably just given it the kiss of death there but will give it a shot and see how we go. The thing about my approach is you have to get the odds. Can’t make the odds = NO BET. Is no earlies either, is all done to BFSP, although I usually play about 5 minutes before the off but BFSP will be the official record for results purposes so as to maintain integrity.

    Not the best day quality wise, so only the three possibilities for me today….

    Cork 2.10…. Clara Sorrento 14.0
    Hunt 2.50…. Sad Eyed Dylan 7.0
    Carl 3.10…. Aspen Colarado 11.5

    Remember…. they don’t make the odds, the bet doesn’t go down. Will make it a regular post around about this time every day so check back if you want to follow them.

    Tim

    1. good stuff Tim, and I like the price guide, as if to BFSP, you can set the minimum and leave it be, a with S1. Best of luck and hopefully the mockers haven’t been put on them!

  11. Thanks for taking time Colin for the info. Very useful. Thanks to Josh for the e-mails, should I need them.

  12. OMG .. What a ride by mr johnson …… he could be good !! ….. i kept shovelling on the euros as he was kept out of the back .. 14.00 i think on da machine …. the last bit i took …… and then like knife through butter he came ………. great pick josh thanks !!
    happy george 🙂

    1. well done George… oh i didn’t think to look at in running on machine, I knew he’d be held up enough but Dicky got him closer there than LTO as they headed for home. Winning like that was expected from me, just whether he hit a fence too hard but that was actually his best round of jumping to date!

      1. yes just read your write up again josh .. spot on .. uncanny 🙂 …… i have always followed this horse any way ….. i think he pulls up the stumps as soon as he can’t see another horse ?? .. great ride in that case form dicky ! 🙂
        on we go with more gunpowder in the satchel ! 🙂

        1. yea does seem to idle a bit maybe but he tries. They clearly ride him like that for a reason, maybe Vaughan thinks he needs settling and yea not realising he’s in a race until late in the piece. Anyway, happy with that for the test tips.

          1. Tim Vaughan in the North micro again! I did not post it up as Junior football and other things got in the way. You have to look out for this one though.

  13. Josh well done with Best of Stats looks like you may have found a road into that minefield of stats in section one,i for one have always found it difficult.

    1. Thanks Colin, starting to look that way but a long way to go! I should really be making better use of my stats work! I’ve clearly had a misplaced price/value prejudice. I am enjoying looking through the ‘shorties’ and working out what still may be value etc, and it’s from a solid foundation given the stats. Backing winners does help the mindset also and hopefully that rubs off on the bigger odds ones. Maybe that price range on daily and this approach is the way forward, in tandem with the 16+ runner C2 handicaps which I enjoy.
      It is using all the stats quals, plenty of winners been from test zone. I’ll keep chipping away and see where we get to.

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