Members Daily Post: 03/11/2018 (complete)

Test tips x3, Big race tip x1, Section 1 (x1), test zone, trends + shortlists

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack

2.Any Tips/Notes (Daily Tips/Festival Tips/other thoughts)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc

*

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack

FLAT

Newmarket 

12.15 – Firebird Song (2YO) 14,30 5/2 

 

JUMPS

Wetherby 

1.30 – Workbench (hncp chase) H3 I1 G3 7/1 S4 S1+S5 PU

3.50 – 

Just Bobby (micro TJC + m dist) w1 H3 I3 G1 9/2 S4 

Zig Zag (m TJC) 9/1  UP

Ex’Selence (m dist) 33/1 

 

Ayr 

1.05 – 

Instinctive (all hncps) 5/1  UP

Orioninverness (m dist) w1 H3 11/2 3rd 

1.40 – Monbeg River (all hncps) G1 9/2 

2.15 – Takingrisks (m dist) 14 5/1 WON 5/1>3/1 

3.25 – Golden Jeffrey (hncp hurdle) 14/1  S2

 

Ascot

3.00 – Sussex Ranger (m TJC) I3 G1 11/1 S1 S2 UP

 

*

KEY

H1/H3= HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)

G1/G3 = Geegeez GoldSpeed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated

I1/I3 =  Inform Racing Speed Ratings – Top Rated or Top 3

14,30 = Geegeez Goldtrainer form’ indicators14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr3010+ runs last 30 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr

ES –‘Elite Squad’ qualifiers:  Flat : HER

ES +Elite Squad ‘Plus’ +   … those stats from stats packs with 10+ winners, 25% win strike rate. 

S1-S6 : S = ‘Strategy’ and refers to the ‘advised strategies’ in the link below. S1 = ‘Strategy 1’. Added on morning of racing along with the price. w1won last start.   w2won two starts ago (tracking as of 15th Feb 2018)

The Strategies: Where should you start? Some ideas HERE>>> (updated end Sept 2018)

‘Flat Strategies/results‘: Flat 2017 Read HERE>>>(updated to end Sept 2018)

‘Jumps Strategies/results’: Jumps 2017/18 Read HERE>>>(updated to end Sept 2018)

Research Articles: (TTP reports/Test Zone/Monthly Articles/Big Meetings Notes) READ HERE>>>

VIDEOS: Members Repository: HERE>>> . All Public (non members only) Videos HERE>>>

IMPORTANT:Welcome Info  HERE>>> (please read) (inc must watch videos :)) 

Contact: email:  – info@racingtoprofit.co.uk  … or failing that… racingtoprofit@gmail.com 

*

 

2.Any Tips/Notes (Daily Tips/Festival Tips/other thoughts)

Daily Tips(2017 Sept-Dec: 31/176, +110.75) (2018: 28/312,98p, -11.2) (1 point win /1 pt EW bets) Festival Tips (2018: +152)

 

Daily Tips

NONE today, a few test shorties below…

 

Festival/Big Race Tips

3.00 Ascot – Sussex Ranger – 1 point win– 14/1 (betfS/PP/BV) 12/1 (gen) UP, weak enough in the market sadly but even so that was an abject effort, can’t think it was the ground but who knows, folded very tamely. If he ever repeats that Chepstow form, you’d like to think he will be thrown in, maybe needing softer now. Fidux hacked up and i assumed something may have more in hand, given he’d had a few goes in handicaps. But in fairness he was only 4 last year, had run some good races, was fit/inform, as was his trainer, who’d won the race twice before in last 10 years. Shame he wasn’t on the stats shortlist, but I was too quick to discount him, as he was 8s or so in the morning, decent enough. 

that will be all for ‘big race/festival’ tips, any picks in the 3m chase will be in the free post…

I feel obliged to back this one really, at the prices! He ticks all of my main stats/trends below, and appears in Section 1 above. He’s got a decent level of form already, is unexposed with the promise of much more to come and in theory, one day, should show himself to be thrown in… the horse who beat him by 1.5L in that Chepstow race -We Have A Dream for Henderson – won his next two and is now rated 156. He didn’t seem to run his race at Cheltenham, too keen, but that was the triumph hurdle. He is the pace setter in this and I think Jamie will be able to lead if he wants to. He was a strong galloping sort last year and if he’s grown/filled out some more, he could be decent enough. Certainly better than this mark in time. The question then is whether he’s here to run his race. Well, having looked at the 20+ year stats in this, Gary Moore is 2/18,7p in the race, those two winners earlier in the millennium. With runners in this race sent off 12s or shorter, he’s 2/9,7p. So, I hope he does come in a bit, especially as all recent winners of this were 12s or shorter SP. If he stays around 14s or goes to 16s+, then I suspect that will be another point loaned back, temporarily. Gary has had Baron Alco and Traffic Fluid go very close in recent weeks after lengthy breaks, so I don’t think fitness will be an excuse, IF this is the plan. He’s one to track anyway.

I didn’t think any other horse in this looked over-priced to my eyes. The Nicholl’s horse could be the danger and was the first instinct as he’s race fit, and he is putting 1st blinkers on him – not sure if that is a positive. But 11/2 is about right to my eyes, not overly generous, and he may want a stronger gallop at this trip. Global Citizen could be the class act, but I can watch him at 7/2, 4s. I can’t have the rest but maybe this smaller field than usual will make some of my trends irrelevant, time will tell.

*

TEST Best of the Stats Quals? (6/18,9p, +12.375)

1.30 Weth – Workbench – 13/2 PU

2.05 Weth – Oscar Rose – 3/1 UP

2.15 Ayr – Taking Risks – 4/1 WON 4/1>3/1 

that’s it for ALL tipping today, 10.52, brief write ups…

Workbench- this old timer looked a shade overpriced and I tipped him at Uttoxeter I think three starts back where getting out-stayed late on. He then ran well at Perth where he’d have been closer had he not stumbled late on. Having looked at this, on what these have all done over fences to date, he has the best form. A repeat of either of those two seconds should put him bang there. Of course there are a few unexposed/could be anything types but they seem short on what they have achieved. Smith’s horse beat a very poor field- horses in the 40-80 range and won as he should. This will be a new test, but he is open to stacks of improvement and hits the chase starting points angle in the test zone which looks at LTO winners. But, his price felt about right. He may just been progressing at a rate of knots. Jefferson’s was running well LTO when sprawling on landing late on. He’s inexperienced and steps up in trip now. That may help. He’s a danger but happy to watch at 7/2. Nightfly has stamina to prove and Copper West has a few questions now also. I’m probably asking for a beating taking on all those lightly raced ones, but I thought this price was decent. He’s back over fences and the blinkers return. The form will be rated around him I suspect, if he runs his race.

Oscar Rose- 3s could be ok here and given her last run surely Paddy will attempt to make all again-  nothing in here regularly forces the pace and I thought her race fitness may count for plenty. She’s also less exposed/younger than the two in the market around her, and they both have fitness to prove. This one stays further and if she gets away on the front end she won’t be stopping. It will then just be whether she’s stopped improving/the others run up to their marks – there are reasons to think that they won’t.

Taking Risks – he’s run well fresh before, not beaten far/’staying on’ and Richards can ready them. The money is a positive and the yard are in form. Ultimately he just looks so well handicapped I couldn’t resist. With this 10lb claim he’s on 112. He’s only 2/7 over hurdles and one of those was a decisive handicap win off 122, with no claim. The jockey has a winner to his name and looks decent enough, those he’s ridden that have been fancied haven’t been far away. He could just be chucked in here, if 100% fit. At 4s I was happy to roll the dice, esp given that the yard look like they’re about to fire.

One winner will do from those, fingers crossed! Hopefully a fun 45 minutes or so. Remember this is a test, albeit one that’s started ok, where I comb through every stats qualifier on this page (section 1 +3), leave my price prejudice to the side, and see if I can make it work at the top end of the market. The first 15 bets are some indication of what’s possible and all the winners have been over sticks.

 

3.Micro System Test Zone

Flat

R Fell

6.00 Newc – Beadlam 8/1

Top of the Class

12.15 Newm – Firebird Song 5/2

*

Jumps

D McCain (14/1< guide)

2.25 Ascot – Ink Master 5/1

2.50 Ayr – Raise A Spark 2/1

Paddy Brennan (14/1< guide)

1.30 Weth – Copper West 4/1

2.05 Weth – Oscar Rose 4/1

*

Fact Sheet 2018/19

Trainers to follow (Lacey/Dalgleish/Lavelle)

3.25 Ayr – Taxmeifyoucan 13/2

3.55 Ayr – Nickelsonthedime 4/1

LTO wining trainers

1.15 Ascot – Chequered View 7/1

1.15 Ascot – Atomic Rumble (8/1< SP) 7/1

2.15 Ayr – Rolling Maul (8/1< SP) 3/1

3.25 Ayr – Potters Story (8/1< SP) 4/1

Jockeys/chasers

3.35 Ascot – Play The Ace (9/1< best) 16/1

2.25 Ascot – Rock On Rocky 14/1

*

Handicap Chase System Starting Points (10/1< best)

1.30 Weth – Abolutely Dylan 4/1

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

Jumps ‘Fact Sheet’ 2018/19

READ HERE>>>

(I’ll move this into the ‘research articles link’ in Key after Saturday, where you can also find the new TTP report) 

*

*

Richard Johnson/ Henry Daly

Geoff asked me in Thursday’s comments to have a look at these two, in handicaps, and well…we may all be thanking him for such a request as it looks as though I have a new micro to throw in the ‘Fact Sheet 2018/19’ ! 

I looked at the last 5 full years + 2018 to date, so since start of 2013.

ALL RUNNERS  / 16/1 or shorter SP (all winners, but not many quals above and odd place)

Those with 0-7 career runs (so unexposed) : 96 bets / 32 winners / 59 places (inc wins) 33% sr / +122 BFSP

Those with 0 wins in handicap national hunt race type (covers all races not just handicaps): 122 bets / 37 wins / 68 places/ +127 BFSP

And combining the two for a decent enough little micro…

All runners / 0-7 career runs / 0 win in hncp NH race type / 16/1 or shorter SP

78 bets / 27 wins / 45 places / 33% win SR / +131 BFSP

They are 13/27, 17p, +45 BFSP since the start of 2017.

Those 27 wins are from 22 different horses. Let’s hope and pray Daly keeps the same owners / and that he takes the same approach to buying/sourcing his horses, as if he does, that angle should tick along until the day Johnson isn’t the go to man for the yard.

**

 

Saturday Big Race Trends

 

Ascot: 2m Listed Handicap Hurdle

10/126, 30 places

10/10 aged 4-6

  • 9/10 aged 5 or 6 (4yo, 1/17,6p)

10/10 priced 12/1 or shorter SP (0/58, 6p above)

10/10 had 0-3 runs this season (4+, 0/21,0p)

10/10 had 0-7 runs in handicap hurdles (8+, 0/34,4p)

  • 7/10 had 0-1 runs in handicap hurdles (7/41,13p)

 10/10 ran 16-20 days ago or 151-240 days ago.

  • 6-15 days: 0/30,3p
  • 21-150: 0/34,4p
  • 241+ : 0/6,1p
  • Some caution, sort of stat to use as a guide, esp hovering around 150 days off.

9/10 yet to win beyond 2m1f. (1/31,6p had)

9/10 had 0-1 runs prev 90 days (2+, 1/34,1p)

6/10 had 3-4 runs in hurdles (6/19,9p, +21… 4 runs only, 5/11,7p, +24)

Track LTO

  • Ayr: 3/6,3p (Scottish Nat meeting)
  • Sandown x2, Huntingdon x2
  • X1: Aintree/Chester/Chepstow

Trainers

  • X2 – A King / N Henderson / J P Ferguson (no longer training)
  • X1 – Hobbs / Nicholls / Lavelle / P Phelan

Other

  • Top 3 in weights: 4/30,8p (clear top weight, 0/8,1p)
  • Top 5 in weights: 7/52, 15p, +10 BFSP (inc last 4, class horses place to focus..?)
  • 0 wins going right handed: 0/19,3p

 

Shortlist

Ignoring odds for now…aged 4-6, 0-3 runs this season, 0-7 runs in handicap hurdles…

Global Citizen / Simply The Betts / Divin Bere / Sussex Ranger / Sparkleandshine

0-1 run in handicap hurdles can be marked up. All the above except Divin Bere. 4 hurdle runs only is a positive, Sussex Ranger the only one to hit those.

Given the form of Nicholls, the fact he’s won the race before, the horse won on the flat when last seen here and comes here fit, and his form in March/April 2017, Divin Beremay be the bet, to my eyes anyway. But i’ve yet to have a good look, in what is a smaller field than usual. Global Citizen is the class horse but has to shoulder top weight on his return and 7/2 may be skinny enough given that and the break.

*

 

Sodexo Gold Cup Handicap Chase

10/146, 34p

10/10 NOT GB Bred (0/29,3p)

10/10 carried 10-1 to 11-3 exc claims

  • 10-00: 0/16,1p
  • 11-4 + , 0/37,8p

10/10 had 3-6 career wins

  • 1-2: 0/12,3p
  • 7+ : 0/27,4p

10/10 had 0-3 wins in all handicaps

  • 5/10 had 0 wins in all handicaps : 5/27,12p, +45
  • 4+ : 0/27,1p

10/10 had 1-3 chase wins

  • 0: 0/2, so caution there/ignore
  • 4+ : 0/38, 5p

10/10 had 0-2 handicap chase wins

  • 6/42,17p, +45 had 0
  • 3+ : 0/33, 3p

9/10, 12/1 or shorter SP (14/1+, 1/71,8p, inc 33/1 winner 2009)

7/10 had 0-5 runs in handicap chases (7/62,24p) (0 = 3/14,8p, +48)

  • 14+ : 0/18,0p

5/10 had 11-15 career runs (5/34,11p, +35, inc the last 3 winners)

5/10 ran in a non handicap last run

  • 5/39,17p
  • Handicap: 5/107, 17p

Track LTO

  • Chelt 2/35,11p
  • Fontwell: 2/4,2p

Trainers

  • No multiple winners in last 10 years: x1, Skelton / G Moore/V Williams/C Longsdon/V Dartnall/E Griffin/N Henderson/D Pipe/Jonjo O’Neill
  • P Nicholls: 0/14,6p , Hobbs 0/9,2p

Other

  • Top 2 in weights: 0/20,4p
  • 2+ distance wins: 0/26,3p
  • 1 win this season: 4/20,5p, +44
  • Claiming jockeys: 0/26, 3p
  • Horse ran 1-20 days ago: 0/30, 4p

 

Shortlist

NOT GB bred / 0-3 hncp wins / 0-3 chase wins / 0-2 hncp chase wins…

Adrien Du Pont / Geordie De Champs / Ramses De Teillee / Solighoster 

10-1 to 11-3 is the ideal weight range, but always caution with such stats… Georgie and Solighoster tick that box.

3-6 career wins is the ideal range.. all but Ramses hits that one.

Those four are all in the 11-15 career run range also. So, stats profile wise, in theory the winner will be one of those four!! Easy 🙂

 

Share on facebook
Facebook
Share on twitter
Twitter
Share on pinterest
Pinterest
Share on linkedin
LinkedIn
Share on telegram
Telegram

Post Comments

Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

45 Responses

  1. It was a lovely sunny (but biting wind) day at Wetherby earlier and am planning on going to the meet tomorrow if the Leeds fans stay clear. No footy for them tomorrow which bodes ill winds generally and clogged up lavs. I’ll be in a certain establishment early doors for a late breakfast and hopefully a chat with Sue before I empty my wallet on Dylan. Then down to the market place for a couple of beers and watch the buses pull in. With a bit of luck, where they have to be for a bonfire fight is uppermost in their minds and all will be quiet on the western front. Well…eastern in this instance.
    Mike

    1. ha ha, i’ll be there tomorrow too Mike. Running the Abbey Dash 10k tomorrow so alcohol will be limited, drop me an email on paulebrey4@hotmail.com with your mobile if you fancy and be good to put a name to the face. Interesting on the Smith horse what you say

  2. 1.30 Weth NIGHT FLY 2 pts @ 7/2 365
    4.15 Newm Presidential 2pt EW @ 6/1 Billy 4 places
    0.5 pt EW trousers down double with Billyhill 10/3 & 6/1

        1. Haha. Quite! He’ll be back soon but if any of us can do half as well with daily tipping as he’s done in last year then we will be in profit dreamland!

    1. Well that was worth the wait!! 🙂 You and Colin agreeing on one, had to be a good sign! And the double. Had a suspicion that would happen haha.
      Brilliant start, you’ve set a high bar now!

  3. Luckily for you guys a rare post from me but looks like London might be a plan in 4.15 nmkt tomorrow. Beaten 3/4 length last year and 13lb lower this time and been nibbled.

  4. 3:00 Ascot.
    Caius Marcius for me purely because STD leaves Divin Bere to ride for Richards for what I believe is the first time. I like Simply The Betts too.

    1. Don’t wait for me Mick, I am checking out how the 40 presenters do over jumps before posting again – not too rosy at the minute!

  5. Two winners from three selections from Friday’s Breeders Cup tips.

    Saturdays selections, all each way:

    4.00 Finlay’s Lucky Charm 15/2.
    6.46 Promises Fulfilled 11/2.
    8.56 Magical 13/2.
    9.44 Catholic Boy 13/2.

    Good luck.

    1. yep good picking Martin, and you got it spot on about going hard on that shorty, made 13/8 look a monster price, won like a 1/10 shot! one hell of a ride from Buick on Line of Duty also superb to watch. That turf course looked hard work, but yet again across both tracks plenty of ‘wire to wire’ winners as they’d say!

  6. minus 5 yesterday…with only Three Majors placing @10/1 SP…win only bets in races of under 8 runners contained the losses but still not good enough…only two Qualifiers tomorrow:
    14.25. Ascot. Garde La Victoire
    16.15. Nmkt. Harlequin Striker
    Gd Lck

  7. Morning,

    Would love to stick with Bryony again today, but, midweek is the best time to catch her, ( prices early on are better as they come from “unfashionable” stables).
    So, as the rain hasn’t got into the ground we are now looking at decimated fields at Wetherby.
    So have had to go to my least favourite course (Ascot), I never really understand why they have to chop and change with running rails there, but that is a different matter altogether! ( surely the ground doesn’t need to be preserved in November for the “royal” meeting? I know the chase course is different, but, if it wasn’t broke in the first place, so, why fix it?)
    I could bang on all day about things like that….booking fees have started creeping in on raceday tickets also…£4 per ticket extra for my Aintree tickets in December, now, i ain’t no skinflint, but, i’m going to watch racing, not some popstar that my kids want to watch, rang them up and asked why i had to pay, they said it was a ” handling” fee, to which i said “You don’t even chuffing handle them, its all computer generated….?” “Well, its a standard fee”…I said if you went to see your g.p. and after you had picked yer medicine up the pharmacist turned round and went its an extra four quid for “handling” what would you say….? No reply..I didn’t really like Jon McCririck, but, he was always banging on about us coming racing…this my friends may be the final nail in the coffin of the “casual” punter and shifting it over to the more corporate side of things. Greed in the end fails even the greedy!
    Anyway onto todays…
    13:05 @Ayr
    Blakerigg 9/2 (was 10/1 last evening, managed to get that, but, value has gone now!) 1pt win
    Mr Hughes going here instead of Wetherby was interesting, wind op, liking of a flat track etc, loads of positives with this one and everyone has latched on.
    Nakadam. 15/2 gen 1/2pt ew
    He is the nearly horse and should again shoe in a place, if he does have his head in the right place though, he could potentially gallop these into the ground..it is a big if though, hence the ew.

    13:15 @Ascot
    Darling Maltaix 6/1 gen 1pt win
    Nicholls, Saturday, top meetings, always got to be considered, this one is about best priced of the one’s i fancy of Nicholls, so, for that reason enters into the value bit of my thinking.
    Chequered View 15/2 gen 1pt win
    I kept looking at this one, unfashionable trainer, shortish odds, why do the bookies fear this one? I assume its cause she is a front runner and the form of her last run was boosted yesterday, if Nick was here would he have picked this? Maybe, so for that reason she’s in!
    15:35 @Ascot
    Traffic Fluide 5/1 gen 1pt win
    Dad and son did really well at this meet last year and i believe this horse may be a class above these, as per though, its whether its on a going day. Should be spot on after Chepstow and i believe likes going right handed, so, another plus there!
    Geordie des Champs 13/2 1pt win
    I assume everyone and there mother will be backing this horse today, Josh will probably tip it also, as, it looks the form pick in the race at the best “value”… Mr Geraghty on board, who is a jockey i still rate, even though he has had a bit of bad press recently, never underestimate the wounded animal, they still have a nasty nip!!

    Good luck and all horses and jockeys come back safe and sound!

  8. Chris M Selections
    Down Royal:
    13:55 – Count Simon (14/1 gen)

    Ascot:
    15:35 – Art Mauresque (10/1 gen)

    I said it earlier in the week and I will say it again, we need some rain for the NH meets. Just a little cut rather than been declared GD/GF would be welcomed 🙂

  9. RECENT TIPS
    Daily
    A 1.05 – Craiganboy on 3rd run @ 10
    W 1.30 – Workbench on 3rd run @ 13/2
    Festival
    A 1.50 – Sternrubin on 2nd run @ 9/2
    3m+
    A 3.35 – Geordie des Champs on 1st run @ 13/2
    D 2.30 – Outlander on 7th run @ 7
    D 3.40 – Heist on 7th run @ 33
    GL

  10. I’ve tipped the Pipe horse in the 3.35, 1 point win 14/1, all in free post. In the end given stats pointers etc and his profile, I couldn’t leave him at that price!

  11. The Twisler Ascot 13:15 1pt e/w Price available 8/1
    Art Mauresque Ascot 15:35 1pt e/w Price available 10/1
    Juanito Chico Newmarket 14:00 1pt e/w Price available 12/1

  12. Is there any long term logging of results from members selections so that one can see the strike rate for individuals who post their selections?

    Do you have an e-mail address by which members can contact you other than the click on tag which does not give one an opporunity to use any other e-mail programme

    1. HI Gordon,

      Nope it’s not that formal on that front, in terms of those who post/their tips. Many will update monthly or keep a running tab of simple P/L, but you’re best asking. Colin is over +100 for year now I think to bookmakers Sp, Nick 450+ points or so to 1 point EW, and various others I can’t remember off the top of my head. Those two have been posting what i’d call ‘tips’ for the longest, most regularly, with others dipping toe in and doing likewise with own tests etc, the likes of Chris, Stewart during jumps and others dipping in with selections/thoughts every now and then.
      I’ve no idea on SRs mind, most focus on P/L / ROI I think, but that can be useful in helping to map out potential losing runs etc.

      If you’re on the winter season ticket in effect you’ve a full 60 days to observe and work out who you may or may not wish to follow, which strategies if any etc, and in general how you use the content. It can take time, as i’m aware there’s plenty going on/to choose from.

      Email- yep there are two address in the Key above, repeated below…

      Contact: email: – info@racingtoprofit.co.uk … or failing that… racingtoprofit@gmail.com

      Josh

  13. just one for me today.
    Newmarket 4-15. Dark Intention 14-1 1pt ew, jockey is 2/4 on board and she drops back into a C4 after a poor run in a C1 lto, only 2lb higher than her win at Chester in a C3 before that 14-1 looks overpriced.
    i looked closely at a couple of others including Josh’s tip , if Traffic Fluide goes to 5’s i’ll have a good punt with WH as an almost risk free bet as they are paying 5 places.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published.