Members Daily Post: 02/11/18 (complete)

Ascot Trends x2, Daily tip x1, Section 1 (complete), test zone, updates , Johnson/Daly

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack

2.Any Tips/Notes (Daily Tips/Festival Tips/other thoughts)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc

*

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack

FLAT

Newmarket 

2.50 – Night Story (all hncps) w1 14,30H3 G3 4/1 S5 UP 10/1

 

JUMPS

Uttoxeter

12.55 – Glimpse of Gold (micro dist) G1 8/1 S1 3rd 

3.15 – Zephyros Bleu (hncp hurdle + m age) ES+ 10/3 S3A 

 

Wetherby 

3.05 – 

Guitar Pete (all hncps + m dist)  11/2 2nd 

Born Survivor (hncp chase) H3 I3 6/1 10p R4, WON 5.4/1>7/2 

Just Cameron (m TJC) 20/1 S2A UP

3.40 – Blue Hussar (m TJC) G3 25/1 S1 S2A 

 

*

KEY

H1/H3= HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)

G1/G3 = Geegeez GoldSpeed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated

I1/I3 =  Inform Racing Speed Ratings – Top Rated or Top 3

14,30 = Geegeez Goldtrainer form’ indicators14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr3010+ runs last 30 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr

ES –‘Elite Squad’ qualifiers:  Flat : HER

ES +Elite Squad ‘Plus’ +   … those stats from stats packs with 10+ winners, 25% win strike rate. 

S1-S6 : S = ‘Strategy’ and refers to the ‘advised strategies’ in the link below. S1 = ‘Strategy 1’. Added on morning of racing along with the price. w1won last start.   w2won two starts ago (tracking as of 15th Feb 2018)

The Strategies: Where should you start? Some ideas HERE>>> (updated end Sept 2018)

‘Flat Strategies/results‘: Flat 2017 Read HERE>>>(updated to end Sept 2018)

‘Jumps Strategies/results’: Jumps 2017/18 Read HERE>>>(updated to end Sept 2018)

Research Articles: (TTP reports/Test Zone/Monthly Articles/Big Meetings Notes) READ HERE>>>

VIDEOS: Members Repository: HERE>>> . All Public (non members only) Videos HERE>>>

IMPORTANT:Welcome Info  HERE>>> (please read) (inc must watch videos :)) 

Contact: email:  – info@racingtoprofit.co.uk  … or failing that… racingtoprofit@gmail.com 

*

 

2.Any Tips/Notes (Daily Tips/Festival Tips/other thoughts)

Daily Tips(2017 Sept-Dec: 31/176, +110.75) (2018: 28/312,98p, -11.2) (1 point win /1 pt EW bets) Festival Tips (2018: +153)

Daily Tips

1.20 Weth – Hermanus – 1 point win – 12/1 (WH/BV/UniB) 11/1 (gen) UP, poor. Held her up this time, not sure she likes that. Travelled well enough but then all went to pot as they headed out final circuit. Wrong choice there and wrong fav to take on. The odd glimmer of light but still too much dross on the daily tips front.

that’s all for today, 09.27…

I wanted to take a chance on this one at a price and time will tell whether taking on the top two is foolish or not. This mare is the only class winner in the field and has experience of the track. She’s hard fit from a summer campaign and does know how to win. If she got back to the form of those Cartmel/Bangor wins, she’d be the one to beat in here as this doesn’t feel much stronger than a summer hurdle, albeit maybe one of top two will suddenly appear thrown in. I thought this one could get an easy lead as most in here liked to be held up, and she’s made all before. The booking of Jonjo junior caught the eye. He is going places and looking back it’s fascinating that he didn’t ride between May-early Oct, on instruction from Senior no doubt, to protect his very valuable 7lb claim (when up against the pros). He was seen to great effect at Aintree and his dad has one at Uttoxeter today, and he may have considered using him on that one. The yard are in form, 2/7 in the last 14 days and they try a couple of things different here. This one responded to blinkers on her first two runs and then they appeared to wear off, albeit I think there may be valid excuses for subsequent runs. Anyway, they remove all headgear here and that can do the trick with some horses when it’s been worn for a few runs. This is also only her second run in a handicap beyond 17f or so and she does run as if well worth a go at it. The breeding may give some hope with the odd relative and she did win a bumper in the mud, which is always some sort of indication that the horse may get middle distances or further in time. In any case, Jonjo may be able to dictate and kick, putting more emphasis on speed/fitness, and in her two wins she showed a great battling attitude. Her profile suggests she wants decent ground. After her two wins she ran at Stratford where the rain got in- it wasn’t good, but was outpaced there but did plug on. It was soft enough at Cartmel also where a big blunder a few from home seemed to end her race and she didn’t seem to jump well out of the ground. She appeared a month later in a C3 over 16f where held up, having been racing prominently in a small field, possibly outpaced again. The run the last day may be more of a concern as she just never looked happy. So, she does need to leave that behind, but the headgear removal may play a part, and hopefully they try and dictate again. It may be clear early enough if i’m to get a run for my money- if she jumps out to the left and is slow again, as with LTO, i’ll be cursing rolling the dice again!

Elliot’s needs to step forward and the selection has achieved a better level of form in handicap hurdles already but he is lightly raced and this intermediate trip may be ideal based on his last run, but seemed short enough. As did OBrien’s given that good ground is a question, as is fitness, he is usually held up and his jockey is 1/34 in handicaps, 0/18,6p over hurdles… he can ride, but all of those factors make his price look skinny to me, but he is the one that could just be much better than this lot. FOB has a very good record with improving horses from other yards.

So, we shall see. I thought the selection was overpriced. If she travels and jumps well on the front end early, i’ll have something to cheer turning for home, with the hope that this trip may bring out more.

 

*

Blue Hussar... i’m not going to tip him but will mention him, mainly in context of the two strategies he hits, and if you follow those, esp win only, he looks like worth attacking on that front EW. It’s hard not to be scared of the fav and if he turns up in the same mood as LTO, surely he wins well again. Newland is a master…taking a horse that scraped home at Galway off 109, BHA took no risks and put him on 124, and he won with his head in his chest at Chelt in a decent enough field, albeit the time of year when they can be more spread out. BH is unexposed over hurdles with decent enough flat form and he’s fit. He will appreciate this decent ground also and races prominently. He should give any EW followers of those two strategies a decent run for their money at 20s I think, on paper. If the fav runs his race he should win, but you never know.

 

TEST Best of the Stats Quals? (5/15,8p, +10.375)

2.50 Newm – Night Story – 4/1 UP 10/1 (i won’t dwell on that one!)

3.05 Weth – Born Survivor – 9/2 WON 4/1 (after R4) > 7/2 SP

that’s it for the ‘shorties’ best of the stats quals on this page, 08.53, to my eye at least…

Night Story – an interesting runner in here and I think it’s about whether he handles the ground- I like the fact he ran poorly twice on GF, and his sire/dam have produced winners on soft/heavy. It could be these are the conditions he wants. He has a progressive profile, is in form, and runs as if this trip is well worth a crack. It could bring about plenty of improvement and he looks a solid galloping sort, rather than one that quickens off a pace. Appleby is in great form- it feels like he’s been red hot all season in truth, and he does very well in staying races, 43/138,78p, +72 SP in recent years. He does have a few things to prove but if handling/improving for conditions, I thought he could win this well. If he doesn’t then the fav may well do, but needs to step up plenty if some of those above run to form. Not many in this have proven winning form on soft in handicaps. Given the amount of AW racing i’d have thought Appleby must think he’s worth a go in conditions, although as I write he’s taking some walk in the market! Never fear a drifter, bar those running for first time on soft- damn. Money is down 🙂 . Hillcrest Fire may be a danger of sorts at the prices, 14s, and looked interesting enough also.

Born Survivor – I think this is between the top two in the market but the Nicholl’s horse does need to step forward again and when seen left handed over fences did jump out to his right at times, so a minor question there, but he looks solid but not over-priced. Surely this has been the plan for BS, for a team who are turning into a superb target outfit, as well as being bloody good in general. Harry is here and not at Uttoxeter, the horse is unexposed over fences and could have a big season, he’s 2/2 at the track and has won fresh before. I think Dan must have pencilled this in some time ago and he likes decent ground. I don’t think he will be far away and even at 9/2 that could be a shade overpriced. He shouldn’t lack for fitness here, and the pupil and the master may be battling this out over the last. I couldn’t have the others at the prices personally.

We shall see how they go. I am enjoying posting up some winners at least and am quite enjoying the challenge of trying to make the stats quals pay at the top end of the market. We will see in time whether I can keep that profit pile ticking along but clearly i’d bite your hand off for that points return every 13 bets. I should add I am backing the selections with my own money, small enough stakes but that’s important for the approach, as not putting anything on means it’s not a true test.

Hopefully one of these two can do the job and the market suggests it may be team Skelton.

Onto Saturday’s big race trends… i’ll be back with those by 12.00 at the latest.

 

3.Micro System Test Zone

Jumps 

Fact Sheet 2018/19

LTO Winning Hurdlers (thanks Chris!) 

3.40 Weth – Storm Rising 1/2 WON

Jockeys 

3.05 Weth- Just Cameron (10/1<) 20/1 DNQ

3.50 Uttox – Saucysioux (9/1< best) 20/1 UP 40/1

LTO Winning Trainers

1.45 Down R – Bedrock (10/1< guide)  12/1 (only Samcro to beat) WON 12/1…blimey

*

Flat 

Top of the Class

12.30 NewM – Journey of Life 6/1 UP

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

Jumps ‘Fact Sheet’ 2018/19

READ HERE>>>

I’ve been busy pulling a few angles/starting points together to keep us going through the winter and to refresh the Test Zone. 

*

Strategy Results update... spreadsheets are in the update process, nearly there… I promise to discuss those early next week, Monday being well, inc updating the various links in the key to month end.

*

Richard Johnson/ Henry Daly

Geoff asked me in Thursday’s comments to have a look at these two, in handicaps, and well…we may all be thanking him for such a request as it looks as though I have a new micro to throw in the ‘Fact Sheet 2018/19’ ! 

I looked at the last 5 full years + 2018 to date, so since start of 2013.

ALL RUNNERS  / 16/1 or shorter SP (all winners, but not many quals above and odd place)

Those with 0-7 career runs (so unexposed) : 96 bets / 32 winners / 59 places (inc wins) 33% sr / +122 BFSP

Those with 0 wins in handicap national hunt race type (covers all races not just handicaps): 122 bets / 37 wins / 68 places/ +127 BFSP

And combining the two for a decent enough little micro…

All runners / 0-7 career runs / 0 win in hncp NH race type / 16/1 or shorter SP

78 bets / 27 wins / 45 places / 33% win SR / +131 BFSP

They are 13/27, 17p, +45 BFSP since the start of 2017.

Those 27 wins are from 22 different horses. Let’s hope and pray Daly keeps the same owners / and that he takes the same approach to buying/sourcing his horses, as if he does, that angle should tick along until the day Johnson isn’t the go to man for the yard.

Thanks Geoff 🙂

**

 

Saturday Big Race Trends

To follow, i’ll get anything of note posted by Friday lunchtime, with shortlists etc to follow. I’ll be focusing on Ascot…

The 2m Listed Handicap Hurdle + the Sodexo Gold Cup handicap chase. I suspect they’ll be tips in both Sat morning.

*

 

Ascot: 2m Listed Handicap Hurdle

10/126, 30 places

10/10 aged 4-6

  • 9/10 aged 5 or 6 (4yo, 1/17,6p)

10/10 priced 12/1 or shorter SP (0/58, 6p above)

10/10 had 0-3 runs this season (4+, 0/21,0p)

10/10 had 0-7 runs in handicap hurdles (8+, 0/34,4p)

  • 7/10 had 0-1 runs in handicap hurdles (7/41,13p)

 10/10 ran 16-20 days ago or 151-240 days ago.

  • 6-15 days: 0/30,3p
  • 21-150: 0/34,4p
  • 241+ : 0/6,1p
  • Some caution, sort of stat to use as a guide, esp hovering around 150 days off.

9/10 yet to win beyond 2m1f. (1/31,6p had)

9/10 had 0-1 runs prev 90 days (2+, 1/34,1p)

6/10 had 3-4 runs in hurdles (6/19,9p, +21… 4 runs only, 5/11,7p, +24)

Track LTO

  • Ayr: 3/6,3p (Scottish Nat meeting)
  • Sandown x2, Huntingdon x2
  • X1: Aintree/Chester/Chepstow

Trainers

  • X2 – A King / N Henderson / J P Ferguson (no longer training)
  • X1 – Hobbs / Nicholls / Lavelle / P Phelan

Other

  • Top 3 in weights: 4/30,8p (clear top weight, 0/8,1p)
  • Top 5 in weights: 7/52, 15p, +10 BFSP (inc last 4, class horses place to focus..?)
  • 0 wins going right handed: 0/19,3p

*

Sodexo Gold Cup Handicap Chase

10/146, 34p

10/10 NOT GB Bred (0/29,3p)

10/10 carried 10-1 to 11-3 exc claims

  • 10-00: 0/16,1p
  • 11-4 + , 0/37,8p

10/10 had 3-6 career wins

  • 1-2: 0/12,3p
  • 7+ : 0/27,4p

10/10 had 0-3 wins in all handicaps

  • 5/10 had 0 wins in all handicaps : 5/27,12p, +45
  • 4+ : 0/27,1p

10/10 had 1-3 chase wins

  • 0: 0/2, so caution there/ignore
  • 4+ : 0/38, 5p

10/10 had 0-2 handicap chase wins

  • 6/42,17p, +45 had 0
  • 3+ : 0/33, 3p

9/10, 12/1 or shorter SP (14/1+, 1/71,8p, inc 33/1 winner 2009)

7/10 had 0-5 runs in handicap chases (7/62,24p) (0 = 3/14,8p, +48)

  • 14+ : 0/18,0p

5/10 had 11-15 career runs (5/34,11p, +35, inc the last 3 winners)

5/10 ran in a non handicap last run

  • 5/39,17p
  • Handicap: 5/107, 17p

Track LTO

  • Chelt 2/35,11p
  • Fontwell: 2/4,2p

Trainers

  • No multiple winners in last 10 years: x1, Skelton / G Moore/V Williams/C Longsdon/V Dartnall/E Griffin/N Henderson/D Pipe/Jonjo O’Neill
  • P Nicholls: 0/14,6p , Hobbs 0/9,2p

Other

  • Top 2 in weights: 0/20,4p
  • 2+ distance wins: 0/26,3p
  • 1 win this season: 4/20,5p, +44
  • Claiming jockeys: 0/26, 3p
  • Horse ran 1-20 days ago: 0/30, 4p

*

Stats shortlists, 10/10, to follow at some stage later on Friday.

Share on facebook
Facebook
Share on twitter
Twitter
Share on pinterest
Pinterest
Share on linkedin
LinkedIn
Share on telegram
Telegram

Post Comments

Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

33 Responses

  1. 2.15 Newmarket – Canberra Cliffs 1pt e/w 14/1 (B365)
    I realise there’s 2 flies in the ointment here in the shape of 2 3yos who could be anything but after looking at the record of this horse over D, G & class I think 14/1 is worth a pop.
    On turf in 10 runs over the distance in handicaps it has placed 10 times!.
    It’s placed 2/3 on the going and 5/6 in class.
    And it’s down to its last winning mark.
    Cue the tailed off!! 🙂

  2. 7.21 Churchill Downs Breeders Cup Juvenile Turf – Sergei Prokoviev currently 5.9 on BF looks great value to me.

    It has been hard to keep the faith with Sergei but he came good at last in The Cornwallis and should be ok with the rain they’ve had as he won his maiden on soft.

    These were my paddock comments from The Coventry.
    Sergei Prokofiev – I’ve posted up a couple of pictures of him. He is a superb specimen, a clear size bigger than anything else in the parade and beautifully proportioned. I think that due to his running a less efficient race than the two in front of him he was beaten here but will eventually rate higher. For the first furlong he was too free and Ryan had to settle him at the back. When he started to make up ground, Frankie on Calyx was doing the same but Sergei P’s run was monetarily held up by Kuwait Station and I Am A Dreamer coming back into him. At the same time Advertise and Calyx were having uninterrupted runs. Having got between the first two as he started to make up ground fast Oisin on Advertise started to drift right toward Vange and Ryan decided to go even further right toward the centre of the course and forfeited another vital couple of yards as Advertise and Calyx continued to run straight. Ultimately he was beaten but he looked like a true Group 1 horse to me. 108

  3. Just back to wrap up the results for October.

    Staked 139pts, Profit -23.02pts, ROI -16.56%

    A poor month to end up on but overall from 12 Dec to Oct (excluding April) +128.73pts profit, so not all bad.

    Good Luck with all your bets.

    1. Hi Colin. To answer your question about old method vs new method, from September when I changed, I would’ve made a loss of 34.5pts with the old method, whereas I made a profit of 24.98pts with the new method over the same period. My gut instinct was way off!!

      1. Hi Ken
        Thanks for that much appreciated.

        Not bored yet then? enjoy your break,for Arnie says i will be back.
        Cheers
        Colin

        1. Haha. Yes getting withdrawal symptoms already. I’m looking at how I can cut down on the time I spend selecting the picks. If I can get that down to 1 hour per day, I may be back 🙂

      2. I hope you return soon with selections Ken
        For the most part of you did extremely well and I’m sure there are more than a few of us disappointed to lose your postings…although I fully understand the time & effort involved means it becomes difficult

        Regards
        Andy

        1. Thanks Andrew. I felt I needed the break but now I’ve stopped I’m already missing it. Bizarre really! Working on how to reduce the time I spend on the selections. Discipline is the key I think. Don’t have the racing on in the background is probably where I should start. Too easily distracted.

  4. Minus 8 pts for yesterday so system not going well inspite of a 4/1 winner…will persevere but if results do not improve over the next month will conclude this system was a non starter. Today’s Qualifiers below and cautioned advised.
    14.20. DR. Redclue
    15.40. Weth. Sleepy Haven
    15.50. Uttx. Dawnieriver
    18.00. Dun. Danz Gift
    20.00. Dun. Three Majors
    21.15. Kemp. Swiss Cross
    Gd Lck.

  5. U.S. Racing Tips for Friday – 8.00 Churchill, Neswspaperofrecord x 4 points win at 13/8; 9.22 Churchill, Line Of Duty x 2 points win at 7/2; 10.05 Churchill, Standard Deviation x 1 point each way at 16/1.

    Qualifiers ‘Trainers with a 33% win strike rate in the past 30 days with at least 5 runners’ – 1.40 Newmarket, Aldana.

    Irish trained runners in England and Wales – 1.20 Wetherby, Askari and 2.30 Wetherby, Chief Justice.

    M.Scudamore handicap chasers <20/1 – 3.50 Uttoxeter, Dawnie River.

    Good luck.

  6. RECENT TIPS
    Daily
    U 12.55 – Glimps of Gold on 1st run @ 8
    K 7.45 – Noble Gift on 9th run @ 25
    D 9.00 – Every Chance on 3rd run @ 18
    GL

  7. Onto decent jumps racing….

    15:15 @uttoxeter
    Sackett 6/1 gen 1pt win
    Boruma 20/1 hills 1/2 pt ew
    15:05 @wetherby
    Guitar Pete 11/2 1pt win
    Cracking Find 9/1 1/2 pt ew

    All the best!

      1. Thanks Josh, Bryony is flying again! I just missed out on 7/1 with Sky bet this morning, so, posted 6/1 as that was the general price this morning. Rattled the crossbar with the other 2, knew the favourite was beatable on this going, let’s hope the rain comes!!?

        1. Well they all need some rain I think… I’m pleased for my sake you did rattle the crossbar in that chase haha, but your winner wasn’t a long wait after so thankfully we both finished the day happy enough!

    1. GL Chris, I don’t get the love for Cracking find, but I must have mis read him as plenty seem to be giving him a good chance. I don’t think he’ll be good enough/up to this level if top two run their races, but i’m preparing myself to drown in egg. If Danny starts popping along on front end I may be in trouble. I don’t rate his chase form, certainly not for a C2/1 listed race like this. The great game of opinion, and as I write i’m probably already regretting putting my neck on the line!

      1. Josh your write up above about the winner was spot on in the end. Cracking Find ran a good race but I would have liked to seen him ran from the front but then again he may have been pipped at the post. You were right about the niggle against his ability but I noted him in my tracker when he ran wetherby LTO, really looked like he was improving. The step up in class was a niggle but given some of the horses in the race were not fresh I felt the odds held some value for him. My shortlist was Cracking Find and Guitar Pete, although I did have some money on your mention/winner above. Tricast would have been a nice thing…

        1. yep, i could see the fitness case, but I looked at his last three chases and the depth/horses around him and there wasn’t much there for me, esp not like the two that finished in front of him. I thought he may be better on softer, but I think he’s ran his race. Born Survivor was a 10lb superior horse than him on figures going into this, and he himself was still open to improvement and it looked to me like this had been the plan. But he’s run close to a 137 horse, so maybe he is still well handicapped if finding the right race. He has solid ‘northern’ form, but for me always had a niggle against something from a Nicholls/Skelton sent up. I’ll get plenty of them wrong mind.

    2. Hi Chris M

      Not sure if my messages got through ok the other day .. but thanks for the time n effort giving us the systems/angles you put up the other day and thanks josh for telling me where i was going wrong inputting the system facts n figures 🙂
      All looking fine n dandy now 🙂

      appreciate it
      thks
      gb

  8. New Thread,almost the perfect start yesterday 2nd sp 9/1 not the clearest passage approx 2 furlong out beaten a neck

    3.25 Newmarket Hawridge Flyer BOG 11/2

    1. I always back my systems, whether my own or those adopted, regardless of who they are up against. A nice 14/1 winner on the changes. Micros only work if you ignore the other runners as they will put you off.

      In a double with Dawnie River as well (My other micro qualifier today).

    2. well i must admit to throwing a £5 at him BFSP after a quick glance /hit 16s, but can’t say I expect fav to get beat! And i’m not backing the facts systematically as yet, we shall see how they do live, but a healthy amount of winners would be welcome as will increase chances of me landing on some of them in section 2! On reflection, that was Samcro’s first run on decent ground over hurdles, i’m not sure he enjoyed it, Bedrock a decent animal 149 , hacked up LTO and progressive over hurdles, liked the ground and was hard fit. No idea if fav 100% fitness wise, but on figures has still run to low 150s there, gave the winner 5lb also. Great training/placing from Jardine, prob hoped for 2nd at best but that was worth 10k in a 4 runner race, instead picked up 25k for 1st, great stuff.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published.