Members Daily Post: 01/11/18 (complete)

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack

2.Any Tips/Notes (Daily Tips/Festival Tips/other thoughts)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack

JUMPS

Stratford

2.45 – Actival (micro class) H3 I3 11/2 S5 (IF 11.00+ BFSP) 

3.50- 

Dr Robin (hncp chase + m TJC) w1 H3 8/1 

Bradford Bridge (all hncps/hncp c+ m TJC) w2 w1 ES+ H1 7/4 S3A 

 

Sedgefield

1.20 –

Millie The Minx (all hncps) 14,30 ES+  16/1 S2A S3A 

Russial Ruscal (m TJC) H3 I1 G3 11/2 S4 S1+S5 (IF 11.00+ BFSP) 

Mutawaasel (m class) (added info – hncp debut) 8/1 

3.30 – 

Tickenwolf (m TJC) I3 5/1 

Same Circus (m runs) ES+H3 I1 7/2 S3A# 

4.00 – Secret Escape (m runs) w2 ES+H1 I3 11/4 S3A# 

 

Irish Bonus Stats

3.10 Clon– Kings Song (HcH) H3 4/1 

3.45 Clon– Thisonesforrollie (HcH) w2 w1 H1 7/4 

 

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KEY

H1/H3= HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)

G1/G3 = Geegeez GoldSpeed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated

I1/I3 =  Inform Racing Speed Ratings – Top Rated or Top 3

14,30 = Geegeez Goldtrainer form’ indicators14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr3010+ runs last 30 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr

ES –‘Elite Squad’ qualifiers:  Flat : HER

ES +Elite Squad ‘Plus’ +   … those stats from stats packs with 10+ winners, 25% win strike rate. 

S1-S6 : S = ‘Strategy’ and refers to the ‘advised strategies’ in the link below. S1 = ‘Strategy 1’. Added on morning of racing along with the price. w1won last start.   w2won two starts ago (tracking as of 15th Feb 2018)

The Strategies: Where should you start? Some ideas HERE>>> (updated end Sept 2018)

‘Flat Strategies/results‘: Flat 2017 Read HERE>>>(updated to end Sept 2018)

‘Jumps Strategies/results’: Jumps 2017/18 Read HERE>>>(updated to end Sept 2018)

Research Articles: (TTP reports/Test Zone/Monthly Articles/Big Meetings Notes) READ HERE>>>

VIDEOS: Members Repository: HERE>>> . All Public (non members only) Videos HERE>>>

IMPORTANT:Welcome Info  HERE>>> (please read) (inc must watch videos :)) 

Contact: email:  – info@racingtoprofit.co.uk  … or failing that… racingtoprofit@gmail.com 

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2.Any Tips/Notes (Daily Tips/Festival Tips/other thoughts)

Daily Tips(2017 Sept-Dec: 31/176, +110.75) (2018: 28/310,97p, -9.2) (1 point win /1 pt EW bets) Festival Tips (2018: +153)

Daily Tips

1.20 Sedge – Millie The Minx – 1 point win – 18/1 (gen) (now 16s) 2nd 20/1 , (32.00 on machine) damn. Decent ride I think as she took a tug again, but stayed on so well after last/winner idling, oh for an extra 1/2 furlong/had she started to motor sooner. Possibly one that got away there, beat by one in some sort of form at least. The hindsight EW of course, always the way.

that’s all for daily tips, 09.22 

This one is clearly a risky poke but my word this is a weak race and to my eyes everything has plenty of questions having had a look at every runner. This is about the trainer’s mo/record at the track really and the fact she’s won with a 28/1 shot here in recent years that had a similar profile- well, that one was more lightly raced in the UK but still hadn’t shown much, and it drifted from 12s or so, and as such i’m not too concerned what the market does, unless this one goes beyond 33s, then i’ll know my fate I suspect. This is also the only track where she’s had winners returning after a break, one of those after 300+ days off. The yard can ready them and the fact they are red hot-  5/14 in the last 30 days- lured me in. Strange things can happen with yards in form, time will tell whether it will be quite this strange!

Sayer is 7/24,7p, +30 in handicap hurdles at the track in the last 5 years, 6/21,8p over this distance. They include some decent prices and if some money comes for this one, we can start to dream also. The horse hasn’t done much to date albeit there were a few staying on efforts on the flat and arguably her best run was when last seen. That was an ok run in a novice hurdle, the winner rated 112 and winning by 10l as expected, but she was close to her 82 rated stablemate in 3rd, staying on ok there. She’d been kept very busy up to that point and the break may have done her some good. It’s not impossible that she’s filled out/strengthened up and I thought it interesting they now run her here, a target track. She’s down in class and is lightly raced in handicaps. Clearly she needs to improve on that run over CD in May and it could be she’s just useless. But, given the stats above and section 1, the yard form, and the weak nature of the race, I couldn’t help myself. It would be painful to see this one romp home at the odds. Hopefully she’s in there pitching as they turn for home and I get some excitement if nothing else. She could be struggling early though, so we shall see. There are reasons to think that none of the higher rated ones will run to their marks although maybe it’s asking too much for them all to fluff their lines, but i’ll roll the dice. One of these will come in soon enough!

 

TEST Best of the Stats Quals? (3/9,5p, +5.375) 

2.55 Sedge – Pauls Hills – 11/4 WON 11/4>5/1 

3.10 Clon – Kings Song – 9/2 UP 8/1

4.00 Sedge- Secret Escape – 5/2

8.00 Newc – Sienna Says – 7/1 (bet365/BetfS) 13/2

09.22, brief write ups on the way…

Remember that this is a test, where i’m parking my price point prejudice to the side! It has dawned on me the number of people who do well in this price range and when I was at Cheltenham in the box with all the high rollers, it struck me how focused they all were on the top of the market. Bar the two in the big handicap chase I was bullish on, i’m not sure any of them backed anything over 4s. Anyway, time will tell whether i can use my own stats quals on this page to make it pay at that end. At least i’m finding some winners, which is a boost to my mental state if nothing else.

Pauls Hills… won a decent novice hurdle at Towcester which caught my eyes as it’s produced a few winners, inc the horse he beat in 2nd now rated in the low 140s. The front two were miles clear but a few of those behind have won since around the 110 mark. I like the fact they haven’t kept him over hurdles for long as it indicates they think he’s a chaser. He had no chance LTO, returning after a break, and pottering around the back. The race was loaded with horses rated 20+ lb superior and the market told you everything. He now drops into a very very weak race, Paddy has a very good record at the track, and he gets 1st CP – Fergal is 3/6 with those in Novice Handicap Chases. The rest have far more searching questions although Mann’s is interesting, but returning after 564 days. The rest have plenty of questions. I thought he looked the most interesting, has the most scope, and could be the best horse in the race and that one day he could rate a fair bit higher over fences. 11/4 could turn out to be a nice price and maybe now Paddy will be far more aggressive, making all!

Secret Esape.. a prominent racer who is the most interesting/unexposed in this to my eyes with a decent level of form already, especially in the context of this race. He’s been consistent to date and runs as if he may now relish this step up in trip. McCain does well enough with his 60+ day runners here and he should rate higher in time. Again, this is a moderate bunch, Champagne To Go is now 0/12 over hurdles, with maybe Question of Faith of more interest, but he has stamina questions, as does the selection but as a bumper winner, he should enjoy this now.

Kings Song… a weak enough looking irish handicap hurdle and this one has been running well for a while, esp when last seen over hurdles on these shores. He hacked up in a Sedge C3 over 27f, beating Rolling Maul that day who was a bit further back. I tipped him that day and then of course he went on to win three on the bounce, unbacked, summing up my year on the daily tips front! Elliot is 9/32,15p here in handicap hurdles, 4/5,5p when Mr Russel is on top. Decent. I thought he was the one to beat on what they’ve done but the money may talk for some of the others. There won’t be a stronger stayer in here and hopefully DR has him close enough/gets him rolling early. Elliot may have a stronger chance in the last but his jumping has been shoddy and he has a monster actual weight on his back, and he was just a bit too short, even in this test.

Sienna Says…well if she was 8s/9s + maybe i’d have tipped him properly but then again it’s a Newcastle C6 and that’s far from my comfort zone. It’s a big enough field but I thought this one was the most intriguing…she is clear top rated HRB/GG speed, which is a positive and unlike many in here arrives in form, and has a course win to her name. I like the step back up to 6f- doing something different – and she now runs as if she’s worth another go over it. She may not stay, but she could relish this, in what is a poor enough race. She also races prominently and will be in the right spot. She could be able to travel more comfortably over this trip, before kicking and grinding on to victory.

That’s the lot today, hopefully some winners there somewhere! I’ve looked in depth at every stats qual on this page section 1 + 3, and that’s where my pins landed.

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3.Micro System Test Zone

Flat 

R Fell

6.30 Newc – Elusive Heights 7/2

8.00 New – Sienna Says 13/2

The Doyler

1.30 Ling – Kodiac Pride 3/1

3.40 Ling – Listen To The Wind 7/4

 

Jumps

Paddy Brennan (14/1< guide)

2.55 Sed – Pauls Hills 11/4

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Handicap Chase System Starting Points (10/1< best)

2.45 Strat- Atlantic Storm 8/1

3.50 Strat – Bradford Bridge 7/4 / One Forty Seven 9/2

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NEW! 2018/19 Fact Sheet Quals

(from the new report in section 4 below) 

LTO Winning Trainers

3.50 Strat – Dr Robin  (8/1<)

Jockeys

2.45 Strat- Dream Bolt (9/1< best)  12/1

3.50 Strat- Dr Robin (9/1< best)  8/1

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

 

Blessed To Empress– 4.10 Lingfield

Lump on! – I jest, don’t! 🙂 This is a a bit of a fact finding mission really. Well, the plan is to sell her in December in a broodmares sale. We’ve had so much fun with her, with three wins on the board already, but she is what she is, and the conclusion is that further progress aged 4 is unlikely. And Amy, with a max 35-40 boxes -which is where she wants to stay- rightly wants to improve the quality over time. We are running her over 7f here and have one of the most experienced jockeys in the race on top. We all think she may enjoy this trip, and any distance versatility may look good at the sales. Whether she does stay we shall find out. There isn’t much pace on paper here which may alleviate her wide draw if she can get out and across without using too much gas. That’s the danger, as well as being stuck wide. I’ll have a sporting EW at 10s+ and only that. Hopefully this trip may tap into something. She owes us nothing but it would be good to see her run well a couple more times before saying our goodbyes.

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Jumps ‘Fact Sheet’ 2018/19

READ HERE>>>

I’ve been busy pulling a few angles/starting points together to keep us going through the winter and to refresh the Test Zone. 

 

About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

55 Comments

You can post comments in this post.


  • Hi Josh,
    early days with the new stats so 1st up a query: Is ES+ for Circus at Sedge a mistake or should Escape be one also?

    Bonus Irish @ Clonmel
    3.10 – Kings Song (HcH)
    3.45 – Thisonesforrollie (HcH) w1,w2
    Mike

    Titus 31/10/18 7:00 PM Reply


    • cheers Mike, yep not sure how I missed the ES+ off that one, follows on from one above on my notepad, same stat! Good spot. I’ve completely forgotten to look at the Irish stats, i’d best get back in that habit. thanks as always.

      Josh 31/10/18 8:18 PM Reply


  • I spend 4 to 6 hours a day studying potential bets and one would think that if I posted my thoughts ( for free) people would be grateful but no, they want me to spend more of my precious time accounting the selections performance at various prices. Early prices, BOG,

    chubnut 31/10/18 7:00 PM Reply


  • boosted odds, SP, Betfair exchange and BFSP. No wonder poor Ken drew stumps, unpaid work is fine until it becomes labouring. I repeat my earlier post that if someone is earning cash from tips then they need to validate their selections but on a free forum then let people post and make your own mind up. If you need to know, ask others. I think Josh wants his cake etc expecting people to pay a subscription, let them post plays then ask them to validate those plays. Our forum colleague Colin does a sterling job of keeping a toll but even he admits having no BOG and like most is probably restricted in accounts so the whole process, once you include when people read the plays is nonsense.

    Rather than have a barren forum lets have the freedom of none professional tipping and let individuals (hopefully adult) make their own minds up.

    chubnut 31/10/18 7:15 PM Reply


    • I validate any selection/systems picks at the price readily available when placing the best. That is fine. Betfair SP is popular but not the be all and end all. Just post selections at the price you get. Do not get stressed Chubnut, it is only horse racing.

      martin colwell 31/10/18 7:49 PM Reply


    • What are you going on about Chubnut? You’ve completely lost me.
      Do point me to those people requesting such breakdowns that haven’t voluntarily shared them… I await with baited breath.

      Or is this a periodic moan, because you haven’t sounded off for a while?

      You’re free to post (or not in your case) whatever the hell you wish.

      I’ve made one simple request, that i’ll repeat, in case you missed it a couple of months back…

      If you are going to post regular tips/thoughts (which are always appreciated, like all comments, whatever they me be, even your grumpiness)… a simple monthly/cumulative P/L TO THE PRICES YOU GET… would be great. For the simple fact that if you are going to put the time into posting, surely you are doing so to help others try and win some money over time? How are people meant to know to follow such sterling efforts if they don’t know how they have been doing, especially anyone new. Of course if there are write ups then even better, as that’s great for education, but that’s what i’d think some find time consuming also.

      How the hell else are they meant to make their mind up? Track your tips for 6 months, when you may have been posting for 6 months already and doing well. for example.

      You are free to ignore all of that and just post, but when someone asks how they have been doing, periodically, don’t throw your toys out the pram.

      I’m at a loss as to where that comment has come from. You just enjoy creating a bit of jib, and like a bit of sparring. We’re all different, and if that’s how you wish to engage in the community then fair enough. Ken can speak for himself, but his decision is nothing to do with any expectation of posting results to X, Y, Z. Clearly that’s ridiculous.

      I assume you account for your own personal bets performance, to the prices you get, whenever they may? Even if it’s to one bookie, at stand out price. It doesn’t really matter. Surely you have your own personal P/L to hand.
      There are only a handful who post in the way described above and they all keep on top of results in a way that suits them- mostly for their own peace of mind. And writing such results every now and then is just a repeat of what they keep personally.

      You’ve lost me, but you know where the door is if you’re so upset. I’m happy to terminate. Another accusation without any foundation. You do confuse me at times.

      You continue to be the only member to ever post anything negative, but then it’s good for us all to be kept on our toes.

      Now, where’s that slice of victoria sponge I have laying about….

      Josh

      p.s Colin doesn’t have access to BOG accounts, hence why he records to SP through his own choice, and through his own choice also now does BOG as a comparison. Nick records results to the prices he obtains at the time of posting, and for his own benefit to compare, has starting recording them to BFSP also I think. Up to him. There are only a handful, who post in the way, with monthly P/L, which seems to have agitated you. Everyone else is brilliant chipping in with their thoughts every now and then, sometimes with write ups etc. Each to their own. Your comment is all a bit rich for someone who I don’t think has ever posted a comment based on the selection of a horse? Albeit I could be wrong and apologies if so. I don’t know if you follow any of the regular posted but i’d be intrigued as to why you do follow them…

      Josh 31/10/18 7:58 PM Reply


      • Poor old Chubnut seems a little put out with you Josh. It appears to me you’re not running your blog how he wants it run and the fact he’s paying for the privilege of you running his blog ( sorry, your blog ) is getting under his skin a bit. Could be the tipsters he follows aren’t winning and needs to vent though. He’s very entertaining in very odd way!

        Chris Albin 31/10/18 9:35 PM Reply


        • Well each to their own and sunlight is the best disinfectant and all these gripes always best out in the open but if I don’t agree with it then I’ll respond as such. I’m still confused as to the main thrust of the argument but I’ll stop trying to understand. And he’s always polite enough which is rule number one. It’s a tricky balance getting the feel right. I want anyone to feel comfortable posting thoughts periodically / tests/ tips etc . It’s the mix that makes it good but if you’re going to put your neck above the parapet regularly I thought it makes sense for simple transparency for all the positives that then follow. Mainly…more people probably following and winning more money. But on flip side comments need to maintain the recreational feel good vibe. Which is does 99.9% of time. And 9O% or so of members never comment which is equally fine.

          Josh 31/10/18 9:57 PM Reply


    • Chubnut, you really don’t need to feel sorry for me. Posting results was never a problem as that is one thing that is an automatic calculation from the data I gather. It is my method of selection and recording the data that takes the time and because I’m either working or playing golf during the morning, I have to do this the night before. Thanks for your concern though 🙂

      Ken McKenzie 31/10/18 9:33 PM Reply


      • Ken….. I’m surprised you continued it through the summer months TBH. My activities on the sand are autumn and winter only. During the summer it tends to attract a lot of horses needing race experience and trainers using it to see if it can perk up turf horses that have gone stale etc,etc…. along with the let’s give it a go herd cos we can’t win an egg and spoon race on the turf. Anything but attracting dedicated sand players.

        To be fair to the the trainers you can’t keep sand horses in training all year round for just the odd decent meeting that comes up during the summer, especially when there’s so much quality turf action on the go.

        When I think about it I don’t really see the point of AW racing during the summer months. My advice is to just cover the best times, for me is Oct’ – Jan’, but forget February onwards because it doesn’t take the punters long to get the measure of the form book given the small pool of sand horses there is to work with.

        Tim

        Tim 01/11/18 9:00 AM Reply


        • All comments excluding any reference to Blessed of course Tim!! 🙂

          Josh 01/11/18 9:31 AM Reply


          • Some people might say that summer AW meets are provided purely to benefit owners and trainers at the expense of the punter but……. I’m not one of ’em Josh! 😀 Ha Ha!!

            Tim 01/11/18 11:44 AM Reply


            • Ha, well given she’s won at 10s>4s or so, and 16s at Chelm, and i’d like to think a few on here had nibbles on both (+Brighton 8s>3s I think), that could well be the case!! ha.

              Josh 01/11/18 11:56 AM Reply


        • I get what you’re saying but I made a profit of 58pts from May to Oct, so it is till possible to win over that period. As I said, I’m not stopping because of a poor Oct, it was just taking up too much of my time. I see there are 3 AW meetings today. Glad I stopped when I did 🙂

          Ken McKenzie 01/11/18 1:29 PM Reply


          • I have been at the HIT sales all week , you was very good , will be missed

            brian dunn 01/11/18 2:21 PM Reply


            • Thanks Brian. Appreciate the kind words. Never say never but need a break.

              Ken McKenzie 01/11/18 7:20 PM Reply


  • London Racing Club Breeders Cup preview for Saturday’s racing:

    4.00 Breeders Cup Filly and Mare Sprint over 7F.

    Bob Baffert trains Marley’s Freedom and it is favourite circa 7/4. This is a race where 4 or 5 year old win. Finlays Lucky Charm has course form and at 8/1 looks a good each way bet.

    4.38 Turf Sprint over 5.5 F.

    Another race where 4 or 5 year old win. This is a race won by American horses. Bucchero has solid form and is expected to be suited by the track and goes off at 10/1. Will Call is 2 from 2 at the course and will go off at a big price. Stormy Liberal should be swerved at the price due to his behaviour at big noisy race meetings.

    5.16 Dirt Mile.

    This is a race won by 3 or 4 year olds. Catalina Cruiser is drawn wide and at 11/10 is not value. City Of Light has a decent draw and looks better value at 3/1. Bravasso is a three year old with a lot of experience, has run in the triple crown races and is considered to be working well. The 16/1 available looks the each way bet.

    6.04 Filly and Mare Turf over 1M 3F.

    Europe had had some success in this race but not recently. Wild Illusion may find the distance too far? Chad Brown has 5 runners in this race! Sister Charlie has been off for a while but that may be a good thing? 3/1 available at present.

    6.46 Sprint over 6.33F.

    Roy H returns but is drawn wide. Imperial Hint is in top form. At the prices Promoses Fulfilled looks the each way value and is the best three year old in the field. 6/1 is available.

    7.36 Turf Mile.

    Repeat winners occur in this race. It looks open this year. The U.S. runners are strong in this race. It is not a race won by front runners usually. Oscar Performance is 3 from 3 at the distance. At 13/2 this is the each way value. Polydream is a bit short at 5/2 and One Master goes up in distance and is expected to struggle.

    8.16 Distaff 1M 1F Dirt:

    Four year olds are favoured in this race. Not a good race for favourites. Monomoy Girl looks a banker at 2/1 and has Abel Tasman to beat.

    8.56 The Turf over 1M 4F:

    Arc runners go well but not the winner. This is a negative for Enable but as she has not had a hard season, it may not be such a negative? From the two draw Enable will have to make all. At 4/7 she does not look great value.
    Waldgeist likes to come late and the race will be ran to suit him. So the 6/1 looks solid each way.
    Aiden O’Brien has a good record in the race and saddles Magical. At 8/1 this is the each way bet.

    9.44 The Classic on Dirt over 1M 2F.

    Mendelsson is considered one dimensional and Aiden O’Brien has a terrible record on this race.
    Accelerate ‘s trainer (Sadler) has an awful Breeders Cup record as well, 0 from 41.
    McKinzie is trained by Bob Baffert. However he is a tail swisher in a finish.
    West Coast is also Baffert trained and is ridden by Johnny Velasquez for the first time. The horse has solid Dubai World Cup from and will go well and likely go close.
    Thunder Snow is drawn in stall one and cannot win.
    Roaring Lion has no chance. He will not like the dirt or the crowd or the course and the kick back.
    Catholic Boy is considered to be the winner and the nap of the day. He is currently 7/1 and is a trye 10F horse.

    Good luck.

    martin colwell 31/10/18 7:31 PM Reply


    • Superb stuff Martin, thanks a lot. I’ll try and remember to copy/paste into Saturday’s post.

      Josh 31/10/18 8:19 PM Reply


    • Excellent stuff Martin…really appreciate the post….. Breeders Cup meeting may not be to everyone’s taste but I personally love this annual celebration and went to Santa Anita for the 2016 meeting so your info much welcomed…thanks for sharing..

      silver 31/10/18 9:01 PM Reply


    • Martin was there any mention of concrete roses chances in the juvenile fillies turf (same race as just wonderful and the mackem bullet ) did you happen to note ? Thank you

      Aaron 01/11/18 3:28 PM Reply


  • The end of the month as come and so it is time for results updates.

    Trainers with a 50% place strike rate in the past 14 days with at least 5 qualifiers – Minus 17.75 points in 2.5 weeks. I did say at the start that I thought it would be a loss maker. The time period of the sample is small but I am going to give up on it. I intend to go forward with ‘Trainers with a 33 win rate in the past 30 days with at least 5 qualifiers’.

    Irish runners in England and Wales excluding Aiden O’Brien – minus 13 points in 2.5 weeks. I also said that I expected this one to be a loser at the start. However I intend to go another month with this one.

    U.S. Racing Tips – Plus 38.5 points in 2018. This one was a loser in October and I have become more selective. We will see how we go at The Breeders Cup and during November?

    Golf Tips (on the free blog) – Plus 77.25 points in 2018.

    I will also be including some new systems selections of mine In November.

    martin colwell 31/10/18 8:01 PM Reply


  • Yesterday – 3pts…hope for better today! Caution advised..Selections as follows:
    13.00. Ling. Helfire
    13.20. Sedg. Captain Brown
    14.45. Strat. Eastlake
    16.10. Ling. Swiss Cross
    17.10. Wolv. Ace Maker
    18.15. Wolv. Pike Corner Cross
    19.45. Wolv. Come On Dave
    20.00. Newc. Black Hambleton.
    Gd Lck.

    silver 31/10/18 8:52 PM Reply


  • Qualifiers re ‘Trainers with a 33%+ win rate in the past 30 days’ – 7.15 Wol, Aluqair, 5/2.

    Irish runners in England and Wales excluding A O’Brien – 3.05 LP, Law Girl, 4/1.

    Emma Lavelle in Handicaps at less than 3 miles – 3.50 Stratford, Vendredi Trois, 8/1.

    martin colwell 31/10/18 9:03 PM Reply


  • RT +14.5
    200 Lin Salateen 3/1
    745 Wo Captain Lars 9/2
    845 Wo Monumental Man 4/1

    kevo19 31/10/18 11:03 PM Reply


  • today’s selections.
    Sedgefield 1-20 Alys Rock 14-1 bv 1/2 pt ew (10-1 sky 4 places),been chasing recently winning once here but been poor since, last win over hurdles was a c&d last year and runs off same mark today. many runners in this have a question mark against them and the selection seems to save her best for Sedgefield.
    Stratford 3-50 Soupy Soups 6-1 1/2 pt ew seems to have finally got the hang of chasing winning his penultimate start and running well lto, up in trip from those races but has won over further when hurdling. cheek pieces tried today.

    martin whittle 01/11/18 1:13 AM Reply


  • Chubnut really does like a good debate…
    Here is mine for today in what is a weak looking contest.
    13:20 @Sedgefield
    Russian Rascal 13/2 gen 1pt win.
    Been here, done it, likes to ride up with the pace and even though the weather ain’t as warm i do believe this track is made for him!

    All the best!

    Stewart 01/11/18 7:40 AM Reply


  • Need to be away early today.
    RECENT TIPS
    S 1.20 – Budarri on 7th run @ 9/2
    S 4.00 – Reivers Lodge on 5th run @ 14
    L 1.00 – Echo Cove on 5th run @ 6
    N 5.30 – Foxrush Take Time on 4th and 5th run @ 10
    W 6.15 – Totally Magic on 6th run @ 18
    W 7.45 – Primos Comet on 2nd run @ 6
    Festival
    L 2.00 – Kimberella on 4th run @ 11/4
    …………Sea Fox on 2nd run @ 14
    L 3.05 – Alwaysandforever on 3rd run @ 9/2
    3m+
    S 3.50 – Vendredi Trois on 4th run @ 9
    GL

    Titus 01/11/18 7:49 AM Reply


  • For those interested in the Breeders Cup, Matt @ Geegeez covers this extensively every year and this year’s report is free to Gold subscribers.

    traf69 01/11/18 8:57 AM Reply


  • I posted this on yesterday’s comments, but in case people don’t check back…

    Re : ChrisM’s strategy…

    “Hi guys, I remember writing something along these lines elsewhere in the past and I think I’m right in saying that if you eliminate horses dropping in trip by 1.5f or further, the results improve further.

    ie down by 0.5 of 1f , same trip or further than LTO.

    I’m sure someone can do the numbers on that 😉 “

    traf69 01/11/18 9:08 AM Reply


  • Chris M Selections
    Noting from me today, not much value to be had. The 3 jumps meets don’t take my fancy, need some rain to soften the ground.

    Chris M 01/11/18 9:33 AM Reply


  • Josh re E Williams stats on fact sheet, I don’t understand the distinction for the final line as all above are LTO winners in an NH race type. What have I failed to appreciate?

    chrisrees 01/11/18 9:39 AM Reply


    • Yep the second bullet is the subset of the first one (essentially focused on the handicaps) , fewer bets, higher ROi, but more importantly it’s then the subset of those handicaps…

      1+ handicap win in national hunt race type: 28/63, 41p, +190 BFSP

      That’s 190 BFSP from 63 bets, vs +204 from 130 bets for the first bullet. Just a way to focus in if you so please / to mark up those with that profile, and i’m always one for handicaps first and foremost.

      Hope that makes sense, they all look at LTO winners. Most of those in those stats above, may well have won a handicap in NH race type before, but some will have won a novice/maiden say.
      Josh

      Josh 01/11/18 10:19 AM Reply


      • Thank’s for that clarification, I need to change my blinkers to no headgear.

        chrisrees 01/11/18 11:34 AM Reply


  • COLINS BETS

    No bet today

    Will be starting another thread today which i backed in October winning at Bookmakers SP + 21.5 points to level stakes.Colins bets will not change

    October returns
    Bookmakers SP +10.875 to level stakes.
    BOG + 26.333 to level stakes.

    colin leafe 01/11/18 10:02 AM Reply


  • Colin, I apologise for saying you were doing well a couple of days ago. I seem to have jinxed you a little!

    traf69 01/11/18 10:04 AM Reply


    • Had gone through my mind!!!

      colin leafe 01/11/18 10:19 AM Reply


  • This new method i backed many years ago with good success,decided to drop it off my portfolio for i went through a mad time thinking that tipsters new more than me which cost me a lot to find out that they did not.

    4.10 Lingfield Violets Lads BOG 10/1 will all be 1 point win.

    Watched it again over the past few months did not record them,however decided to back them in October,results are all to level stakes.

    11 winners from 65 bets 7/2 20/1 10/1 6/4 7/2 4/1 11/2 5/1 5/1 16/1 7/4
    Bookmakers SP + 21.5 points profit.

    If you decide to back them alongside me you will need a decent bank and remember i have only proven records for October.

    colin leafe 01/11/18 10:18 AM Reply


    • Phenomenal work yet again on the tipping front Colin. I am intrigued by the new method. Can I just ask, is this new method purely systematic or is it a combination of systematic and your own form study?

      Francis 01/11/18 10:30 AM Reply


      • Hi Francis

        Picking the bets is systematic,then intuition and experience comes into play,my guide lines for any bet is
        going has the horse won on todays going clerk of the courses are a pain for not giving the true going ie yesterday Nottingham GD/FIRM even Pinnoccio would have found this hard to belief.
        Grade has the horse won in this grade if being dropped a grade then worth a second look,going up in grade is more difficult unless an improving 3 or 4 year old.
        Distance is another main criteria if the horse is dropping back then normally OK,but if going up in distance would prefer that it is proven that it can stay,the trainer often believes on the gallops it will stay but under racing conditions at the course they often do not.
        Draw on the flat is important especially in sprints.
        Having said all this Octobers results are systematic only.

        Having said all this Octobers results are totally systematic

        colin leafe 01/11/18 11:44 AM Reply


        • Thanks for taking the time to respond and providing insight into your methods. It would be rude not to follow the new method too but will set up a separate bank and start with slightly smaller stakes and (hopefully) build up.

          Francis 01/11/18 2:24 PM Reply


    • Hi Colin, is this new method alongside your method you used for the winter a/w season last year or instead?
      Hugh

      alpha2 01/11/18 10:39 AM Reply


      • Hi Hugh
        Colins Bets on AW and NH along with turf flat racing now will always be integrated together and it will be up to you if you wish to back the AW only.
        All results during the summer have included the three codes.
        Only separated the AW for a bit of fun after one or two slated the AW and i wanted to prove that you can win on the AW,for me a 3/1 winner at Lingfield pays the same as a 3/1 winner at Ascot,which i think the goal was achieved not only by myself but with Ken Mckenzie and now Kevo is having a good go on the AW will watch his results with interest.

        colin leafe 01/11/18 11:58 AM Reply


  • I had a bit of time on the bullet train so had a quick look. Would have posted sooner but took an hour to get £30 ew matched at 22/1 on BetConnect since I suspect it won’t take much to crash the price. Expect more at a similar time tomorrow.
    Aylas Emperor Sedgefield 16:00 (or 1am if you’re in Japan) 1pt ew

    Nick Mazur 01/11/18 10:26 AM Reply


    • Our long lost son, welcome back! But do enjoy the remaining few days of your holiday! Ever committed.

      Josh 01/11/18 10:39 AM Reply


    • Konbanwa stranger

      Titus 01/11/18 10:39 AM Reply


    • hurry back Nick the classic bike’s in for an engine rebuild and carb re-balance and you have only paid for half of it and i need some re-chroming done 🙂

      martin whittle 01/11/18 12:46 PM Reply


  • Very interested to see how Activial 2.45 Stratford gets on in his stable debut for Tom George. I was on the gallops with a Geegeez syndicate at Anthony Honeyball’s a couple of years ago, shared gallop with Harry Fry and Activial came past with Harry’s string.
    He was an absolute eyecatcher and Paul Barber who was also there opined what a class animal he was. He has not won a race since and I gave up following him after landing at the bottom of the cliff.
    Anyway, I am happy to see him back out again and wish this most beautiful of horses all the best. I won’t encumber him with any of my hard earned today.
    Hugh

    alpha2 01/11/18 10:45 AM Reply


  • Josh, we touched on it last season, maybe worth a look now, Richard Johnson riding for Henry Daly in handicaps. Could you use your data to check if this is profitable ?

    geoffwylde 01/11/18 11:51 AM Reply


  • Hi everyone, Arrived at my daughters in Australia overnight so if this lot go’s pete tong I’m blaming the red wine & jetlag.
    ALL E/W

    Sedgefield 1.20 My Renaissance 18/1, the last time this ran over hurdles he ran behind Ange Des Malbereaux who has progressed 20lb since, had first time tongue 2 days ago and fell at the fourth, cheekpieces added today and back over hurdles.

    Stratford 3.20 Mr Dorrell Sage 9/2, Won after break and wind surgery before falling next time,Trainers horses running well enough.Trainer/Jockey only runner/ride today.

    Stratford 3.50 Vendredi Trois 12/1, Cannot understand why this horse is such a big price, has placed in all his last six in races valued between 5 and 10k, trainer has had 5/7 runners placed in last 14 days.

    Now I’m Cheating my lucky 15 was one short the red wine has kicked in so bring on Nick the Master and added his selection from the 4.00 at Sedgefield.
    Good Luck everyone.

    Greg

    Gregory Phillips 01/11/18 12:23 PM Reply


  • that’s it a Nick tip and Josh’s, completely emptied my Unibet bank on those 2 and a little ew double, mind you there was only £18-76 in it which i had forgot about 🙂

    martin whittle 01/11/18 12:51 PM Reply


  • Well that placing has just increased her paddock by 10k, well done josh

    Paul 01/11/18 4:15 PM Reply


    • ha, brilliant run esp from that draw and energy she’d have used early. Doubt 10k but may have added 5k for my 5% ! We shall see, given us so much pleasure, will be a sad day when she’s gone but next year will be so tough for her, bumping into more progressive horses, 3 year olds with their allowances etc. I’d like to think she’ll make 15, hope for 20! But no idea what market is like now, but she’ll produce plenty of fun types!

      Josh 01/11/18 4:26 PM Reply


  • Well done with B T E Josh, I thought she ran well, for a few seconds even might win. I had a dabble ew with PP at 16/1 so a pleasing result.

    Richard 01/11/18 4:16 PM Reply


    • thanks Richard, such a thrill, yep edge of seat all the way through that and she hit front just about at one stage, maybe early energy used impacted her, not sure, but great run nonetheless, never has a 3rd around Lingfield been so exciting!

      Josh 01/11/18 4:27 PM Reply


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