Members Daily Post: 31/10/18 (complete)

write ups, Daily Tips x1, Test x3, Section 1 (complete), test zone

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack

2.Any Tips/Notes (Daily Tips/Festival Tips/other thoughts)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc

*

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack

FLAT 

Nottingham

2.40 –

Samovar (all hncps) 14/1

Tan (micro dist/class) 13/2

4.10- Motahassen (all hncps) 14 H3 I1 4/1 S2 

 

JUMPS

Fakenham

1.30-

Master of Finance (all hncps 5 yrs) ES+ I1 15/2 S3A S5(IF 11.00+ BFSP) 

My Brother (all hncps 5 yrs + hncp h) 14 ES+ 5/1 S3A 

 

*

KEY

H1/H3= HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)

G1/G3 = Geegeez GoldSpeed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated

I1/I3 =  Inform Racing Speed Ratings – Top Rated or Top 3

14,30 = Geegeez Goldtrainer form’ indicators14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr3010+ runs last 30 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr

ES –‘Elite Squad’ qualifiers:  Flat : HER

ES +Elite Squad ‘Plus’ +   … those stats from stats packs with 10+ winners, 25% win strike rate. 

S1-S6 : S = ‘Strategy’ and refers to the ‘advised strategies’ in the link below. S1 = ‘Strategy 1’. Added on morning of racing along with the price. w1won last start.   w2won two starts ago (tracking as of 15th Feb 2018)

The Strategies: Where should you start? Some ideas HERE>>> (updated end Sept 2018)

‘Flat Strategies/results‘: Flat 2017 Read HERE>>>(updated to end Sept 2018)

‘Jumps Strategies/results’: Jumps 2017/18 Read HERE>>>(updated to end Sept 2018)

Research Articles: (TTP reports/Test Zone/Monthly Articles/Big Meetings Notes) READ HERE>>>

VIDEOS: Members Repository: HERE>>> . All Public (non members only) Videos HERE>>>

IMPORTANT:Welcome Info  HERE>>> (please read) (inc must watch videos :)) 

Contact: email:  – info@racingtoprofit.co.uk  … or failing that… racingtoprofit@gmail.com 

*

 

2.Any Tips/Notes (Daily Tips/Festival Tips/other thoughts)

Daily Tips(2017 Sept-Dec: 31/176, +110.75) (2018: 28/310,97p, -9.2) (1 point win /1 pt EW bets) Festival Tips (2018: +153)

 

Daily Tips

3.10 Notts – Sunblazer – 1 point win – 12/1 (bet365/BV/Unibet) 11/1 (gen) UP 16/1, that was over before it began. Held up, mid race move, stuck 4 wide, ran ok to a point. Looks like they’re working him back for an AW campaign, worth watching on next 3 starts. The main danger just got up.

09.17, write up…

I thought this price was a tad insulting but the market may well guide here. Kim Bailey is in red hot form, 9/24,15p in the last 30 days and with any luck that will rub off on this one. He’s never won after a break before and given his odds of 40/1 i’d like to think he will come on for that last run, where he was never put into the race. He usually races further forward when on song/expected to go well. He’s only one of two horses in this with a win over the trip, albeit plenty have placed and a few have won over further. He also relishes good to firm ground (2/7,4p..all turf wins/places)  and connections won’t have many more opportunities this year to get a win into him on turf. It could be this is a further prep for a spin back on the AW but he’s running in his ideal rest pattern – he’s 8/24,16p all flat/AW handicaps returning 16-30 days. He’s tough, he tries and he’s only 1lb above his last winning mark – 2lb below it with the claim, from a jockey who’s placed on him 4 times but yet to win. But at least he knows the horse well. He drops in class here and it’s his first flat run in a C4, having been running in C2s/3s all his flat turf career to date, winning a C3 at Newmarket last November. This is only his 3rd turf run since that win. It could be that unlike his trainer he’s just out of sorts, in what has been a light campaign so far, but at the prices I thought he was worth chancing. If he was guaranteed to run his race then he should be a 9/2 shot or so in this, to my eyes anyway.

The rest have plenty of questions also, many looking out of sorts. All of Tarte Tropezienne’s best form is with cut and he’s had a few runs on fast without doing much, but he’s fit and in form. Questions though, in context of price. Lucky Deal’s only handicap win was a 4 runner race over 11f but was in form when last seen. Maybe the break has done him good but he’s started to ‘stay on’ plenty, without getting his head in front. He’s been off the track for 67 days and Johnston is  4/60 in the last 14 days – always hard to know if his yard is out of sorts given how often he runs them and maybe plenty have had enough for the year. Anyway, I didn’t think his price was generous but i’d mark him as the main danger. Potters Lady Jane has to prove stamina but runs as if the trip may bring out more. But she arrives on the back of an abject effort, trying to follow up a win, and now gets headgear. A chancy one at 8s but if returning to the form of that run two starts back may go well. I was struggling to make much of a case for the rest.

So, we shall see. If his price comes in a few points and he races more prominently, i’ll expect him to go close enough. If he stays static/drifts, and is held up, I won’t get too excited. Fingers crossed he can pull the daily tips back into profit.

 

TEST Best of the Stats Quals? (2/6,4p, +5.5) 

(a test looking at what I would call ‘top of the market’… those stats quals – section 1 +3, generally under 8/1. A solid start if nothing else) 

2.40 Notts – Tan – 6/1

3.30 Fake – Beau Sancy– 7/4

4.10 Notts – Motahassen– 3/1

that’s it for shorter priced ones, 08.38, write ups…

Tan- ordinarily i’d have a 8/1 or so cut off in a race like this, and in general that’s my minimum price point but maybe 6s could still be decent enough. He was 9lb out the handicap the last day and it was on soft. He drops back 3 classes here into a more realistic level and on decent ground hasn’t really run a bad race on the turf for Appleby. If he repeats that recent Notts run, or the Ripon one, then he will be bang there at the death. I’d be surprised if he was out of the top 4. He races prominently, may try and lead, and is best on good to firm it seems. Appleby is 5/14,8p in C5 5f handicaps at the track, and is 5/20,10p with 1st time CP in class 5 handicaps on the turf, since 2014. They could eek out some more improvement/help him focus when under pressure late on. Samovar, the other section 1 stats qual, is interesting and will be up there. The ground was a question as they’ve never run him on GF, and his best form has been with cut, so a bit of educated guesswork there but if handling it may go well.

Beau Sancy – this could still be a decent price, given that if he’d jumped better he’d have won by 5L+ the last day for me, and the front two miles clear. He travelled between his fences there like a fresh/in form/well handicapped horse but by his jockeys own admission only ever does enough. Going this way round may help and Gavin is learning about him with each ride. There’s more in the tank I think and the others have questions also. Skelton’s was held up the last day and you’d think was fit enough to run better. Edmunds horse is exposed over fences but is in form from hurdles for his new trainer and I suppose is interesting, but the recent chase form/unexposed nature of BS swung it for him. Little Windmill’s best chasing form has been over further. he will try and lead but I wondered if this may happen too quickly in the latter stages, but his jumping/galloping may take him a long way on a career high mark. Ulis has a few too many questions for me, but you cannot totally discount albeit is certainly on the exposed end of the spectrum. He’s won fresh before over fences though.

Motahassen – well if this was on softer you’d be very very confident but he’s only run on decent ground once, and that was over 7f when held up. He seems to want further and has been transformed by more forceful tactics. I think they will try and make all and he arrives in form still to my eyes. He’s done a but too much on recent starts but this race isn’t as deep as some of those, and a more patient waiting ride in front may work wonders. A couple of others can go forward but i think they will fade away soon enough. The niggle is whether he puts down on the ground and that may make 3s short enough, but if he handles it he could take this like an evens money shot, and they may not see which was he’s gone for his inform trainer.

Remember these are test bets and for tracking purposes, you’re free to use/ignore them as you please. We shall see what the P/L pile looks like at 50 bets, and see if I can get my ‘short odds’ eyes working.

 

3.Micro System Test Zone

Jumps

Handicap Chase System Starting Points (10/1< best)

3.30 Fake – Beau Sancy 15/8 / Hepijeu 11/4

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

*

Share on facebook
Facebook
Share on twitter
Twitter
Share on pinterest
Pinterest
Share on linkedin
LinkedIn
Share on telegram
Telegram

Post Comments

Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

42 Responses

  1. Nothing so far tonight. Fingers crossed for Merweb in the 8.15, who has been backed in from 25/1 to 7/1.

    Kempton tomorrow. Qualifiers:
    6.15 Divine Messenger 4/1 & Zeshov 6/1
    7.15 Continuum 25/1 (EW)
    8.15 Widnes 25/1 (EW)

    1pt win for the first two. Each way for the last two.

    Whatever happens tonight or tomorrow, I’m taking a break from posting. I’m finding that I’m not enjoying the daily evening toil of recording the data and posting the tips as I once did. Apart from a break in April, I’ve posted almost every day since 12 Dec and I think I need to take time out to “get a life” 🙂 .

    I may be back at some point or, more likely, will just post occasionally if I’m at a loose end. Since I started posting, my tips have made a profit of 132pts. Hopefully, I’ve helped to boost the bank balance for some of you.

    I’ll still be following the fantastic group of tipsters here on RTP. My own bank has increased more than four-fold in the time I’ve been on here, so big thanks to everyone who has contributed to that. I’ve used some of those profits to take a 2.5% share in Really Super. I hope to use some of my “spare time” watching her win many a race.

    Good Luck with any bets.

    1. Hi Ken
      Have a good break and thank you for posting,over 10 months i for one have enjoyed watching your method with interest.

      One question when you tweaked your method was it a wise move or was their more profit when you had more bets.

      Cheers

      Colin

      1. Thanks Colin. I’ll do a check at the end of the month. I did miss a few winners but I also missed a number of losers. Gut feeling is there wasn’t much difference.

        1. Good luck Ken. If you need any help tweaking any system this make it easier to operate then let me know? I have done a hard t of process engineering.

    2. The feeling you are having is exactly why I always take a Sunday off and whenever I am away from home I completely disconnect from Horse Racing, sort of like a mental reset. Sure I may miss some bets that could have won but for my sanity it is needed.

      Enjoy your break Ken, take some time to reset and when you are ready come back fighting. Thanks for posting your bets, my bank since starting backing yours is looking great!

    3. thoroughly understandable Ken, and enjoy your time out.
      Will certainly miss the all-weather selections as the cold weather kicks in, thanks for all that you have done!

      Paul

    4. Ah that’s sad to hear Ken, but yep I’ve always wondered how you haven’t burnt yourself out given you approach isn’t automated in any way/saved angles etc, inc results, and that will take it out of you eventually. You have to find an approach which is enjoyable also, as that is the point really. Hopefully you’ll be back posting some day, as they’ve done well since you started, but understandable you need a break from it.

      1. Thanks Josh. It is semi-automated but it still takes me a couple of hours each night to record the data I need, post up the tips then record the wins/losses. I’m sure if I was a bit more disciplined I could cut that to an hour but I’m too easily distracted.

  2. Small loss yesterday -1.2 pts inspite of Solstice Star returning @ 5/1 BOG( win only )and Imperial Legend placing at 9/ e/w @ 1/5 odds.
    Today’s Qualifiers:
    13.40. Notts. Bravery
    15.30. Fak. Ulis De Vassey
    18.00. Dun. Shake The Bucket.
    Gd Luck if playing.

  3. no tips today after yesterdays blank.I did do the saver on Gaelic Flow which eased some of the pain but won’t be included in results
    a couple to mention at nottingham, i would have tipped Samovar in the 2-40 if the rain had come but not on the going as it is.
    in the 3-10 Iftiraaq is running had a fair bit of form 2/3 years ago and runs off it’s lowest ever mark on the flat, i did have a nice win backing this back then and will have a small ew @33-1 for old times sake.

  4. Well what a day yesterday was! Went from looking like the worst month since posting to now 2.1pts ahead for the month (getting advised/BOG). Big confidence booster for the coming month. Thanks for the kind words yesterday from some of the regular posters 🙂

    Chris M Selections
    Fakenham:
    1:30 – Master of Finance (5/1 gen)
    1:30 – Salto Chisco (8/1 gen)
    Went for proven course winners here but the main danger for me is Mauricio who I see is now tipped by Colin. Mauricio is also backed by me as he hits a system I am running that focuses on quick returning NH winners. I was considering sharing it if anyone is interested, chugs along quite well with a good strike rate.

    Dundalk:
    16:25 – Ishebayorgrey (12/1 gen)

    2pts up with 3pts in play today. Hopefully one of these gets a win today but either way I am in a much better position to finish the month than I was on Monday 🙂 . Good luck with any bets today

    1. Thought I’d post the system I mentioned above that picked out Mauricio anyway.
      The rules of the system are as follows:

      NH Race Type: Hurdle
      Hcp/Non-Hcp: Handicap
      Race Class: 2,3,4 & 5
      Days of the week: Omit Sunday (this is my preference as I don’t bet Sunday)
      Days Since Last Win: 1 to 7

      Performance since 2015:
      293 bets, 128 wins, 43.69% strike rate, +73.84pts @ SP, 25.5% ROI @ SP, +92.03pts @ BFSP, 31.41% ROI @ BFSP, Average odds : 3.53

      One thing I will say, the odds to SP are misleading as at the off most of the winners are favourites but if you can get on early you can get much better odds. It does pick out short priced runners but given the strike rate I have a very specific staking system that maximises the profit from it.

        1. Chris, according to HRB the longest losing sequence over the data I am using is 6 bets. Happened 3 times over the 293 bets.

  5. Notes from the London Racing Club Breeders Cup preview – on the panel Mark Johnson (MJ) and Rachel Candelora (RC) of Racing UK and Joe De Souza (JDS) from Betway.

    UK times.

    Note – California based horses do not have a good record in Kentucky.

    Friday

    7.21 Juvenile Turf Sprint over 5.5F – this is a new race to the Breeders Cup. Soldiers Call ran well in the Abbaye and sets a standard. Sergei Prokoviev was impressive last time out and was the unanimous selection for the race. Wesley Ward does not have a good record at this time of year and so lay Shangshangshang.

    8.00 Juvenile Fillies Turf over one mile – In 10 running’s of this race the U.S. hold sway 8-2 v Europe. Newspaperrecord won the profile race for this one and is considered a worthy favourite. I did ask the question about this horse being one of several who like to go forward and so there may be a burn up? Also it is not a great race for front runners. RC thought that Newspaperrecord could just outclass the field anyway and could also track any fast pace. Aiden O’Brien is 0/11 in this race.

    8.40 Juvenile Fillies Turf over 1m 0.5F – Restless Rider has 2 wins at the track and is a solid selection.

    9.22 Juvenile Turf over 1M – Europe hold sway 7-4 over the U.S. This is not a good race for favourites and not for front runners. History leads us to placed form in The Dewhurst. Anthony Van Dyke was initially top rated but has been drawn 14 of 14, which is a negative. Line Of Duty had a favourable draw and has good form and is the selection.

    10.05 Juvenile Dirt over 1M 0.5F – This race is likely to be a burn up and it may be best to look for something coming from off the pace. Look for a horse placed last time out. No selection made.

    I will post comments on Saturdays card on the Thursday post.

    Good luck.

    1. Thanks for posting…informative info…any idea what American tracks have good form in relation to Churchill Downs or where info can be found?…no worries if not possible…just curious as the post mentioned that shippers from California don’t do well there..again thanks for the post.

      1. Rachel did mention that East Coast horses who run at East Coast tracks generally tend to go better at Kentucky than the West Coasters. She said that it was mostly due to climate. Kentucky is similar in weather to the UK at this time of year. Also course form should be counted highly.
        Who knows how much rain will come down at Churchill this week? It should be OK if we get 24 hours dry weather pre racing. Take a look at prior races at the track before The Breeders Cup kicks off.

  6. Qualifiers re ‘Trainers with a 50% place strike rate in the past 14 days with at least 5 runners’.

    3.00 Fak Mamoo;
    3.10 Not, Sunblazer;
    3.30 Fak, Little Windmill;
    4.40 KP, Nervous Nerys;
    6.15 KP Excelleration;

    Good luck.

  7. Hi Chris,
    really interested in your advices and system above .. i am struggling to get to the same result as you on my horsebasesystem ? given the above criteria i am getting results of about 17658 bets at appx 12% win … just wondering if there was further criteria to above to bring in line with your results ??

    but all very interesting and appreciated
    many thanks
    gb

    1. George,

      Not sure how you are getting that but I have a few ideas that might help.

      Make sure you are selecting the (LWIN) Days Since Run in HRB with regards to winning 1 to 7 days ago.
      And also I have only looked back to 2015 so make sure you have 2015 to 2019 selected.

      Hope that helps.

      1. Yep i’ve got the same results as you Chris.
        Tried to eliminate some losses/losers but couldn’t find a way to. Looks a very good starting point again if nothing else, but can see why a staking system would work…if i’ve read it right, there’s +213 points more sat there, just by taking opening show odds (10 mins pre off or so) over the returned SP. So, in theory, evening/morning/bog would do better than that.
        Good stuff.
        Josh

        1. Chris, as an aside, i’m currently writing my Betting Insiders article for this month, a 2018/19 jumps ‘fact sheet’ which i’ll publish in members’ tomorrow. Do you mind if I throw this angle in? Will pad it out haha. No worries if not, it’s a cheeky request!

          1. Yeah Josh the system is showing profit but the BOG/early morning odds adds a lot more on top of that. I ran the system very well last NH season, reviewed the data and decided on an aggressive staking plan. The strike rate being so high you can afford to be aggressive I think, I’ll see how this season goes .

            I see no reason for you not to include it in your jumps fact sheet 🙂 . If it helps other punters then I am more than happy for it to be published to a wider audience.

          2. How do you work out the opening show return Josh? Is that by using the odds move percentage data in HRB? I’m not challenging your maths btw, just intrigued how it’s done.

          3. Aha not the odds move but the points difference one, I get it. All gets rounded to the nearest point but very useful, thanks!

          4. Yep that’s the one, odds move opening show to SP…only a guide but always useful. Makes sense that many of those would shorten a few points as the real money comes late. Last 10 minutes often most revealing for plenty of horses, esp as the big money pros and the asian syndicates start to get busy on the machines!

  8. Nottingham… appears ground was never as advertised (good to firm, good in places), which is just bloody brilliant. Appears it’s on the easy side of good. No problem there, as you’d expect at this time of year, but not when you give impression that it’s dried out plenty, hence the watering. I think Sunblazer wants it firm, but it may be this level of oppo is more important, we shall see. His record on GF was one of my main ways in/reason I liked him. The great game. New stick required.

      1. haha, well if it wasn’t GF this morning I wouldn’t have tipped Sunblazer, given he’s o/15,3p in turf handicaps on all other going. He’s ran well there mid race suggesting he’s working his way back to form, running him into form I suspect, mark will drop again. He’ll win on the AW this winter, i’ll hope he’s a decent price when he does. Same with Appleby’s, his best form on GF, but may still have gone for him in test, but under 8s in a race like that is asking for a beating. Ironically the lack of GF with help the Carroll horse, so we shall see what he does. I know it’s all part of the risk, but when what I call the ‘extreme’ goings are wrong, it’s frustrating, and it clearly was never GF- a group of jockeys walking it would have told them that and they changed it after R1.

  9. Submit Race Class
    Class 2 Class 3 Class 4 Class 5
    Submit
    Handicap/Non Handicap
    Submit
    NH Race Type
    Hurdle
    Submit
    Date (Year)
    2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
    Submit
    Date (Day)
    Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday Saturday
    Horse Data – These categories specify the individual traits of each horse in THIS race.
    Submit
    H-Run (Last Win) Between 1 And 7

    1. it’s that final one that’s wrong George I think. You want the ‘horse last win’ data box, the yellow one second from bottom in V4 builder. That one you have is looking at number of runs since they last won, Chris looking at horses that won LTO and days since that win effectively. And it’s handicaps only.

  10. Hi guys, I remember writing something along these lines elsewhere in the past and I think I’m right in saying that if you eliminate horses dropping in trip by 1.5f or further, the results improve further.

    ie down by 0.5 of 1f , same trip or further than LTO.

    I’m sure someone can do the numbers on that 😉

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published.