Members Daily Post: 29/10/18 (complete)

Tips x2, Section 1 (complete) , test zone

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack

2.Any Tips/Notes (Daily Tips/Festival Tips/other thoughts)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack

FLAT 

Redcar

3.25 – Vallarta (micro class move) w1 H1 6/1 S6 UP

4.00 – Zorawar (m age)  10/1

 

Leicester

1.55 – Hochfeld (all hncps/3yo+ hncps, + m age) ES+ H1 I1 7/4 S1 S3A# 2nd 

3.05 –

Ventura Knight (all hncps, 3yo+, + m age) ES+ 14/1 S3A

Third Time Lucky (m TJC) H3 10/1  2nd 

 

JUMPS

Ayr

2.05 – Ofcourseiwill (nov hncps) H3 I3 7/1 UP

2.40 – Achill Road Boy (m TJC) G3 12/1 S1 S2 3rd 

3.15 –

Chocolat Noir (all hncps) I1 G3 7/2 UP

Solway Berry (all hncps) 25/1 S2A UP

That’s Life (m dist) (added info – hncp debut) 15/2 UP

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KEY

H1/H3= HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)

G1/G3 = Geegeez GoldSpeed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated

I1/I3 =  Inform Racing Speed Ratings – Top Rated or Top 3

14,30 = Geegeez Goldtrainer form’ indicators14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr3010+ runs last 30 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr

ES –‘Elite Squad’ qualifiers:  Flat : HER

ES +Elite Squad ‘Plus’ +   … those stats from stats packs with 10+ winners, 25% win strike rate. 

S1-S6 : S = ‘Strategy’ and refers to the ‘advised strategies’ in the link below. S1 = ‘Strategy 1’. Added on morning of racing along with the price. w1won last start.   w2won two starts ago (tracking as of 15th Feb 2018)

The Strategies: Where should you start? Some ideas HERE>>> (updated end Sept 2018)

‘Flat Strategies/results‘: Flat 2017 Read HERE>>>(updated to end Sept 2018)

‘Jumps Strategies/results’: Jumps 2017/18 Read HERE>>>(updated to end Sept 2018)

Research Articles: (TTP reports/Test Zone/Monthly Articles/Big Meetings Notes) READ HERE>>>

VIDEOS: Members Repository: HERE>>> . All Public (non members only) Videos HERE>>>

IMPORTANT:Welcome Info  HERE>>> (please read) (inc must watch videos :)) 

Contact: email:  – info@racingtoprofit.co.uk  … or failing that… racingtoprofit@gmail.com 

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2.Any Tips/Notes (Daily Tips/Festival Tips/other thoughts)

Daily Tips(2017 Sept-Dec: 31/176, +110.75) (2018: 28/309,97p, -8.2) (1 point win /1 pt EW bets) Festival Tips (2018: +153)

Daily Tips

3.05 Leic – Third Time Lucky – 1 point EW – 11/1 (bet365/BV) 10/1 (gen) 2nd 10/1>7/1, 1/5th odds. +1 , ran well, no complaints.

3.25 Redcar – Social Butterfly – 1 point EW – 14/1 (gen) UP, disappointing, travelled well and last jockey to get moving, found little. -2

 

that’s all, 09.13, write up…

Third Time Lucky… there have been 11 renewals of this race and Fahey has won it twice from six runners, so i’m hoping that since his last run he may have had this race in mind for this CD winner. Fahey is 6/20,9p in 1m handicaps at the track in the last 5 years, 3/5 with PH on top. Indeed trainer and jockey are 10/22,12p in all handicaps here in the last five years, which is very solid. +35 to Sp, 1 point win. The horse is 4/16,p in turf handicaps and won the 2015 Cambridgeshire off 95. This is no Cambridgeshire handicap. Three starts back he won impressively in soft. Admittedly that was a C3 but it was a solid enough race. He’d have gone close at Ayr in a C2 two runs prior to that if getting a clear run. I don’t think he’s ever been in love with fast ground, certainly not as he’s got older, which may explain his efforts the last twice. They were in two of the hottest 8-9f handicaps run all season and he went well until 2 out at Newmarket, racing up the stands rail which didn’t appear to be the best part of the track. They did gun him out hard there but he is tactically versatile. There area  couple of front runners in this and I expect PH to be more patient. He should enjoy this return to softer ground and this stiff climb to the line. I thought he was overpriced and should give me a run for my money A few in here have plenty of questions also and i’d be surprised if he didn’t place, as a minimum. On form in the book, he’s the best handicapper in this race for me and he looked overpriced.

Social Butterfly… as does this one. I can’t quite believe she’s double figures here so maybe I’ve read it wrong but with 4 places to aim at i’ll take a chance. Two starts back in a race for novice riders she bolted up to my eye, for a jockey having her first ever ride in public. I’m hoping that this first career win for the horse was down to her first run on proper soft. She seemed to relish it. She raced prominently there and the right horse chased her home- another 3YO who was in form, and went down to a NTO winner the run before. If she repeated that run I couldn’t see her outside of the places here. She races prominently and should get a toe into the race from Munfallet. The draw stats also suggest on soft ground that you do not want to be high, which is where a few of the more fancied ones are. We shall see how that plays out on the day but from the last 5 races in such conditions (6f, soft, hncps, 15+ runners) those drawn 13+ are 0/35,3p. Channon has done well here in the last year, 3/14,4p, and trainer/jockey are 8/47,15p in handicaps (he’s attached to the yard), 3/14,6p in class 6. It all seemed to happen a bit too quick LTO, returned to decent ground over 6f at a track where you run downhill for a time. She picked up ok and was staying on, in a race won by a make all leader. This is only her 3rd run in a 6f turf handicap, and only her second on soft. Fingers crossed she can make it 2/2 in such conditions. She shouldn’t be far away if i’ve read this race correctly. Only 6 of the runners have a handicap win on soft or worse and of those most have questions to answer now.

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I did look at Golden Investment in the 2.40 Ayr, but missed 6/1 and was on the fence as to whether 9/2 was good or not. Mainly as his wins to date have been when fresh – 61-90 days… 0/16,3p all runs 1-60 days… that made me anxious at 9/2…but his run LTO was after a wind op and he went well for a long way, no doubt needing it and that fitness could count for plenty. If he returned to the form of that Wetherby chase win in a deep race, he’d take this I think. Maybe i’ve got that price judgement wrong, we shall see!

 

TEST Best of the Stats Quals? (1/5,3p, +3) 

12.55 Ayr  – Quri – 7/4 2ns

Taken from the test zone micro below- it’s probably the best of those stand alone angles. Tom Lacey has travelled 350 miles with this one, his only runner on the card I believe. The yard are in form, 2/8,4p the last 14 days, he’s 5/12 with new recruits from other yards, can ready they after a break and has booked the main man. This one has shown some decent enough form already and she’s related to some very good jumpers. This horse could be very smart, the sort to make this seemingly short price look rather big. I’d be shocked if she was here needing the run, and then it’s just whether there’s something better than her in here. Her hurdles form would give her the edge over the other market leader for me and you’d think the rest may not be good enough, albeit Jardine has one that is at least race fit. This horse could be classy (certainly in the context of this oppo), and it looks like connections mean business. Tom Lacey owns this one also, and they can be a selling yard (while wanting to keep training them). Maybe this one will bolt up and be wearing different colours NTO, we shall see.

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3.Micro System Test Zone

Jumps

Tom Lacey

12.55 Ayr – Quri – 7/4

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

23 Responses

  1. U.S.Racing Tip for Sunday evening:

    Santa Anita race 6, 10.12 UK time, Jay Makes Us Laugh, 14/1 in places, 1 point each way.

    Good luck.

  2. AW Results Update
    Frustrating night on Saturday with 4 picks in the hunt but beaten close home. -7pts.
    w/c 22 Oct: Staked 32pts, Profit -15.52pts, ROI -48.51%
    Oct to date: Staked 129pts, Profit -16.02pts, ROI -12.42%
    Need a few winners by Wednesday to finish the month in profit.

    Chelmsford on Monday. Qualifiers:
    6.15 Acrux 15/2
    7.45 Galloping Hogan 9/2
    8.15 Wiff Waff 12/1

    All 1pt win

    Good Luck

    1. Price has gone a bit now but a couple of tipsters I follow put up Operative; C&D winner who’s very well handicapped and trainer doesn’t many to track but has a good SR when he does.

  3. I’m not a tipping type of guy but I’m having a stab on the back of recently subbing to GG’s gold ( thanks Josh! your sales pitch had better help me make some dough!).
    For some unknown reason my focus ended up on the 3:05 at Leicester through briefly ( and I do mean briefly) looking at some draw graphs at Leicester on GG’s. I may be way off the mark but middle draws seemed pretty poor at around a mile and shorter for that matter. Anyway low didn’t seem that great either so I thought I’d spend an extra 30 seconds or so dabbling in pace as if I wasn’t out of my depth enough already. I did consider Dragon’s Tail at 10/1 as it looks like he will lead on it’s own but the bulk of the pace if you can call it that seems drawn high. So I’ve gone for Third Time Lucky as it’s got favourable conditions along with Fahey’s liking for the course helped with mid div runners and the draw showing healthy IV’s. That’s all from me I’ll be back in another 6 months with more useless information.

  4. No joy yesterday – 6pts…hope for better today..Qualifiers below.
    13.45. Galway. Dream Walker
    13.55. Leics. Great Hall
    16.15. Leics. Suzi’s Connoisseur
    17.45. Chelm, Whingingh Willie
    19.15. Chelm. Malaysian Boleh

    Gd lck.

  5. RECENT TIPS
    Daily
    L 2.30 – Hedging on 8th run @ 12
    R 1.40 – Vincents Forever on 5th run @ 3
    R 4.00 – Ventura Secret on 9th run @ 5??
    …………Mable Lee on 6th run @ 8
    C 6.15 – Sayesse on 6th run @ 28 (changed trainer) ?
    Festival
    L 2.30 – Tuscany on 4th run @ 16
    G 3.30 – Maze Runner on 3rd and 4th run @ 7/2
    G 4.35 – Mastermind on 4th run @ 6
    GL

    1. w/e 28/10 figs

      Daily runners = 31
      Winners = 2 @ bog 14, 5/4 @ sp 12, 5/4
      p/l @ bog – 13.75
      p/l @ sp – 15.75
      There were 7 / 6 plcs @ bog 14, 14, 14, 16, 25, 33, 20 @ sp 12, 14, 14, 25, 10, 18

      Festival runners = 15
      Winners = 2 @ bog 9, 9 @ sp 8, 8
      p/l @ bog + 5
      p/l @ sp + 3
      There were 2 plcs @ bog 22, 28, @ sp 22, 16

      3m+ runners = 9
      Winners = 2 @ bog 16, 16, @ sp 16, 16
      p/l @ bog + 25
      p/l @ sp + 25
      there were 1 plcs @ bog 16 @ sp 14

      PLACES @ 10’s+ DO NOT INCLUDE WINS

  6. Qualifiers re ‘Trainers with a 50% place strike rate in the past 14 days with at least 5 runners’:

    3.25 Red, Fink Hill.
    8.15 Chm, Its All A Joke.

    No Irish runners in England or Wales today.

    Results update at the end of October.

    Good luck.

  7. COLINS BETS
    Leicester
    1.55 Banditary BOG 11/2
    1.55 Restorer BOG 7/1
    Chelmsford
    6.45 Seventii BOG 9/2
    7.15 Molten Lava BOG 4/1
    7.45 Mans Not Trot BOG 2/1

  8. The London Racing Club has a Breeders Cup preview on Tuesday evening from 7 PM. Mark Johnson and Rachel Candelora of Racing UK are on the panel. Holiday Inn Bloomsbury Forum near Gloucester Road tube. Non members welcome.

    I will put up some notes from the evening on Wednesday.

  9. Chris M Selections
    Ayr:
    14:05 – Ofcourseiwill (9/2 gen)

    Chelmsford:
    18:45 – Earthly (9/2 gen)

    Last weeks results to follow, not pretty reading. Barring a miracle, it looks like October is going to my worst month to date. November can only get better right??

    1. Results:
      Re-Cap w/c 22/10/18:
      15 bets – 1 winner
      S/R: 6.67%
      ROI: -33.33%
      P/L: -5 pts

      Overall:
      449 bets – 77 winnners and 11 N/R
      S/R: 17.62%
      ROI: +7.42%
      P/L: +32.66 pts

      June: -10.4 pts
      July: +33.68 pts
      August: -0.97 pts
      Sept: P/L+30.25 pts, ROI: 55%, SR: 20% (58 bets, 11 winner, 3 N/R)
      October: -19.9 pts (ongoing)

      I am seeing a pattern in my results above, good month followed by a bad month then the next is good. So by that November should be knocked out of the park 🙂 . Would like some softer ground for the NH, really struggle when NH runs over GD ground, bring on the deluge of rain please!!

  10. all recent tips 3/10/17 to 28/10/18 (subsequent runs)

    Daily Tips (members/section 2)
    407 x 1st run, 49 x win @ 12 % sr, bog + 96.80, roi + 23.8 % / sp – 25.75, roi – 6.3 %
    373 x 2nd run, 40 x win @ 10.7 % sr, bog + 2.00, roi + 0.54 % / sp – 75.25, roi, – 20.2%
    236 x 3rd run, 25 x win @ 10.6 % sr, bog + 88.85, roi + 37.65 % / sp + 51.35, roi, + 21.8 %
    143 x 4th run, 21 x win @ 14.7 % sr, bog + 54.5, roi + 38.1 % / sp – 3, roi – 2.1 %
    56 x 5th run, 13 x win @ 23.2 % sr, bog + 34.5, roi + 61.6 % / sp + 15.50, roi + 27.7 %
    36 x 6th run, 7 x win @ 19.4 % sr, bog + 41, roi + 113.9 % / sp + 27.85, roi + 77.4 %
    23 x 7th run, 2 x win @ 8.7% sr, bog + 7, roi + 30.4 % / sp + 2.5, roi + 10.9 %
    20 x 8th run, 5 x win @ 25 % sr, bog + 50, roi + 250 %/ sp + 39.75, roi + 198.75 %
    11 x 9th run, 0 x win, – 11
    7 x 10th run, 0 x win – 7

    Festival Tips (members/section 2)
    197 x 1st run, 17 x win @ 8.6 % sr, bog +119.50, roi + 60.7 % / sp + 47.50, roi + 24.1%
    113 x 2nd run, 19 x win @ 16.8 % sr, bog – 9, roi – 8 % / sp – 24.30, roi – 21.5 %
    59 x 3rd run, 1 x win @ 1.7 % sr, bog – 49.5, roi -83.9 % / sp – 50, roi – 84.75 %
    27 x 4th run, 4 win @ 14.8 % sr, bog + 15.50, roi + 57.4 % / sp + 11.50, roi + 42.6 %
    18 x 5th run, 1 x win @ 5.6 % sr, bog – 3.00, roi – 16.7 % / sp – 3.00, roi – 16.7 %
    9 x 6th run, 4 x win @ 44.4 % sr, bog + 24.50, roi + 272.2 % / sp + 16.00, roi + 177.8 %
    1 x 7th run, 0 x win = -1
    1 x 8th run, 0 x win = -1

    3m+ (chase tips/free posts)
    144 x 1st run, 13 x win @ 9 % sr, bog + 53.50, roi + 37.15 % / sp + 4.25, roi + 2.95 %
    84 x 2nd run, 22 x win @ 26.2 % sr, bog + 105.25, roi + 125.3 % / sp + 82.25, roi + 97.9 %
    49 x 3rd run, 4 x win @ 8.2 % sr, bog – 1, roi – 2 % / sp – 11.25, roi – 23 %
    33 x 4th run, 4 x win @ 12 % sr, bog – 5.50, roi – 16.7 % / sp -10.00, roi – 33.3 %
    20 x 5th run, 2 x win @ 10 % sr, bog + 1.50, roi + 7.5 % / sp -3.00. roi -15 %
    11 x 6th run, 2 x win @ 18.2 % sr, bog + 20.00, roi + 181.8 % / sp + 14.50, roi + 131.8 %
    2 x 7th run, 0 x win. – 2
    1 x 8th run, 0 x win, – 1

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