Members Daily Post: 28/10/18 (complete/Tipsx2)

Tips x2, best of stats x2, + Aintree through the card Section 1 (comp) , test zone

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack

2.Any Tips/Notes (Daily Tips/Festival Tips/other thoughts)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack

JUMPS

Aintree

1.15 –

Follow The Bear (micro age)  30 9/1 

The Hollow Ginge (micro age) 30 12/1 S2 

1.50 – Double Ross (micro runs) 30 8/1 

2.25 –

Haul Away (micro’s dist and age) w1,w2 30 H3 I3 7/2 

Cool Sky (micro runs) w2 25/1 S2A 

3.00 -Templehills (micro runs) w1 30 H3 G3  20/1 S1 S2A 

 

Wincanton

1.00 –

Cahill (micro TJC) H3 G3 3/1 

Dovils Date (micro class) H3 I1 7/2 

Bubble O’Clock (micro Hcdeb) 5/2

4.30 – Mick Thonic (micro class move) H3 I3 6/4 

 

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KEY

H1/H3= HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)

G1/G3 = Geegeez GoldSpeed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated

I1/I3 =  Inform Racing Speed Ratings – Top Rated or Top 3

14,30 = Geegeez Goldtrainer form’ indicators14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr3010+ runs last 30 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr

ES –‘Elite Squad’ qualifiers:  Flat : HER

ES +Elite Squad ‘Plus’ +   … those stats from stats packs with 10+ winners, 25% win strike rate. 

S1-S6 : S = ‘Strategy’ and refers to the ‘advised strategies’ in the link below. S1 = ‘Strategy 1’. Added on morning of racing along with the price. w1won last start.   w2won two starts ago (tracking as of 15th Feb 2018)

The Strategies: Where should you start? Some ideas HERE>>> (updated end Sept 2018)

‘Flat Strategies/results‘: Flat 2017 Read HERE>>>(updated to end Sept 2018)

‘Jumps Strategies/results’: Jumps 2017/18 Read HERE>>>(updated to end Sept 2018)

Research Articles: (TTP reports/Test Zone/Monthly Articles/Big Meetings Notes) READ HERE>>>

VIDEOS: Members Repository: HERE>>> . All Public (non members only) Videos HERE>>>

IMPORTANT:Welcome Info  HERE>>> (please read) (inc must watch videos :)) 

Contact: email:  – info@racingtoprofit.co.uk  … or failing that… racingtoprofit@gmail.com 

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2.Any Tips/Notes (Daily Tips/Festival Tips/other thoughts)

Daily Tips(2017 Sept-Dec: 31/176, +110.75) (2018: 28/305,96p, -5.2) (1 point win /1 pt EW bets) Festival Tips (2018: +153)

Daily Tips

1.15 Aintree

Quest For Life – 1 point win – 14/1 (gen)

Jump For Dough- 1 point win– 14/1 (gen)

I couldn’t help attacking this race and I thought at the prices these two were most interesting. Quest For Life should go well if a1 after a break and he’s placed on his seasonal reappearance before. He’s lightly raced with some good form in the book already and runs as if this new trip will bring about plenty more improvement. The market can guide with this yard, if he starts walking to 16s+ I’ll be in trouble. I’ll have a look at him pre race also and try and tween any fitness thoughts. Fingers crossed it’s not over before it’s begun but not impossible this has been a target. Jump For Dough… Russell’s had a couple of 2nds in this race in recent years, at decent prices, and at least this one comes here fit and in form. 20f would have been too sharp the last day, getting outpaced having hit the front a few from home. He’s got some solid handicap form to his name and there could be more to come this year. That 4L loss at Muss in a C2 was a decent enough contest, in a race where I wanted to take on those near the top of the market. We shall see if that proves wise. I looked at Spiders Bite and Petville also for a time. The former has just a few too many questions but the yard is in form and the owner likes having winners here. But he needs to step up and was a price that made me think today wasn’t the day. The latter has had an age off the track and you’d think he would come on for it. Again the market will guide, but he had some smart form when last seen and is unexposed.

 

 

TEST Best of the Stats Quals? (1/2,2p, +6) 

2.25 Aint – Haul Away 3/1

3.00 Aint – Flying Angel 9/2

This new test is where I flick through any stats quals on this page as starting points, and don’t think about price as much! Maybe it’s more of a ‘winners’ first mindset, albeit I do think about price a bit and long suffering members will know my lack of ability in the Evens-6/1 range- maybe I’m guilty of over-thinking at times, so we shall see what that test P/L pile does, all 1 point win.

Haul Away… fit, in form, prominent racer and still unexposed. He should go very close here I thought and has got into the winning habit which is no bad thing. He could still be well handicapped.

Flying Angel.. he’s beaten Cloudy Dream around here before but last season was a write off. He has a very good record fresh and you’d think this has been the plan, as well it might for most in this. If he got back to his best he’d go well here and I thought he looked most interesting of the test zone, along with Lord De Mensil in the novice handicap, but he did fall when last seen. I thought Frodon was interesting but he’ll have to be some horse to defy that weight/rating on seasonal return. Value At Risk interested me to a point also, and you’d think this has been the plan.

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That’s all for ‘tips’ etc. 10.09. 

 

3.Micro System Test Zone

Jumps

Autumn Trainers

NTD (22/1<)

1.50 A – Double Ross  8/1

3.00 A – Flying Angel 5/1

3.35 A – Arthurs Gift 8/1

2.45 W – Bigbadjohn 3/1

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R Hobson (33/1< guide)

1.15 A – Petiville 20/1

3.35 A – Oakley Hall 16/1  Lord Du Mesnil

Paddy Brennan (14/1< guide)

4.10 A – Tashunka 5/2

Tom Lacey 

12.40  A- Dorking Cock 22/1

3.35 A – Plydora 8/1

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Handicap Chase System Starting Points (10/1< best)

2.45 W – Sumkindofking 11/4

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

Aintree ‘through the card’ – given i’m off there racing i thought i’d better have a go. Aintree can sometimes be a bloodbath for me, so we shall see. My eyes worked ok yesterday. Annoyingly I didn’t have time to do the 3m2f hncp chase justice but if you follow me on twitter or read the scroll bar at the side would have seen I fancied the eventual 1-2. A shame the Curtis horse didn’t do that for us at Sandown when tipped but the ground went against him that day. She’s got a decent staying handicapper on her hands there, and Cogry yet again jumped well for Sam, having won the same race last year. Anyway, clearly such thinking hasn’t added to the tipping pot but it was a confidence booster if nothing else. I was a +1 for a friend who’s a big bettor with SpreadX and they invited a load of their high rollers into a box for the day. It was quite something. 500-1k bets flying around like confetti, and one chap there placed a bet of 400K !! I think it lost. That’s a proper bet! He’s a big big owner and I can only assume that was small change.

On to today… (left to right in order of preference when more than 1)

 

12.40 – Stoney Mountain – fav looks solid but the owner loves a winner here and this may well have been a target. Yard are going well. But taking on Charlie is probably foolish.

1.15 – Quest for Life / Jump For Dough  (eye on Petiville, market may or may not guide as to fitness, small change BFSP job I think)

1.50 – Pendra / Ballyboker Breeze

2.25 – Haul Away  / Eaton Hill for change, but fitness Q, market may guide.

3.00- Flying Angel / Value At Risk

3.35 – Droves Lane / Lord De Mesnil

4.10 – Poperinghe Ginger – a fun EW.

 

If none of those do anything i’ll probably have given back what I won at Cheltenham yesterday, albeit having found the winners of the first 2, it was all downhill after that. Sykes was so painful.

 

 

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

12 Responses

  1. Sunday Stat Quals

    Aintree

    1.15 – Follow The Bear (micro age)
    ………The Hollow Ginge (micro age)

    1.50 – Double Ross (micro runs)

    2.25 – Haul Away (micro’s dist and age) w1,w2
    ………Cool Sky (micro runs) w2

    3.00 -Templehills (micro runs) w1

    Wincanton

    1.00 – Cahill (micro TJC)
    ………Dovils Date (micro class)
    ………Bubble O’Clock (micro Hcdeb)

    4.30 – Mick Thonic (micro class move)

  2. with an awful card at Wincanton it only leaves Aintree.
    2-25. Cool Sky 20-1 1pt ew, Ian Williams has 2 runners this one and the Favourite Byron Flyer 11-4 and i don’t believe there’s much in it between them with Cool Sky 7lb higher than his C&D win in May but has a 7lb claimer on board to negate that, a class horse on his day let’s hope it’s today.
    no more tips but i have had a couple of quid on the Bowens Fortunes Hiding 20-1 in the 12-40 as i think it’s massively overpriced

  3. Snapped a long losing run, with the best day yet for my fledgling AW system, N/R, 6/1 & 16/1 sp from 5s! +20 on the day now RT +15.5
    No AW Sunday

  4. Yesterday ..1 winner w/o 7/1 SP= +7pts…… 3 w/o lost together with 1 e/w = -5 pts… overall profit +2pts….Today’s Qualifiers:
    13.00. Winc. Dovils Date
    14.15. Galw. Ballyfinboy
    15.45. Wex. Shanpallas
    14.45. Winc. Court Frontier
    Gd Lck.

  5. Two more seconds yesterday, due some winners.
    12:35 Kilbarry Way 2pts each way
    2:25 Haul Away 4pts win
    4:30 Volpone Jelois 2pts each way

    Good luck

    Ken

  6. RECENT TIPS
    Daily
    A 1.50 – Beat That on 3rd run @ 5/2
    A 3.35 – Polydora on 2nd run @ 8
    W 1.00 – Dovils Date on 3rd run @ 7/2
    Wx 3.45 – Presenting Mahler on 1st run @ 10
    Festival
    A 1.15 – Buckle Street on 4th run @ 22
    A 2.25 – Eaton Hill on 2nd run @ 10
    3m+
    G 1.40 – Heist on 6th run @ 16
    GL

  7. No way should Mischievous Max be outsider of the field on all known form in the 14.25. Been tracking this since finishing 2nd at Cheltenham last November. Thought horse wanted good ground (both wins on good) but never had conditions since. Since that run has Finished a respectable 9th in the Coral Cup earlier this year and down the field in two good Irish handicaps all on soft ground.

    Has since left Joseph O brien for Harriet Bethell. Just think of this ones been readied at home it could well outrun its odds.

  8. COLINS BETS

    No bet today

    Couple of winners yesterday,put profit into October to the tune of

    Bookmakers SP + 15.375

    BOG + 28.333

  9. One qualifier re ‘Trainers with a 50%+ place strike rate in the past 14 days with at least 5 runners’:
    3.35 Ain Wandrin Star

    No Irish visitors that I can see.

    Results update at end of the month.

    1. He has a line through him now, correct horse posted. Miss read my HRB system quals section, a few horses blurring into one!

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