Members Daily Post: 26/10/18 (Tipsx4/complete)

Section 1 (complete), test zone, Really Super Video/preview, Cheltenham trends , trainer stats…

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack

2.Any Tips/Notes (Daily Tips/Festival Tips/other thoughts)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack

FLAT 

Newbury

2.50 – 

Improve (all hncps 5 yrs, all) w2 14,30 ES+ 2/1 S3A

Maggie Jonks (micro dist) w2 14/1 

4.00 – Face Like Thunder (m TJC) 28/1 

 

Doncaster

3.00 – Derevo (2YO) 3/1 

4.10 – 

Darksideoftarnside (all hncps) w2 7/1 

Aldreth (m age) 28/1 

5.20 – See The Sea (m age) w1 16/1 

 

JUMPS

Cheltenham

3.10 – 

Brillare Momento (m class) 9/1 

Lungano Palace (m class/runs) w1 14/1 S2

Golden Birthday (m class/dist) 25/1 S2A

Mr Antolini (m 90 days) 14,30 w2 H3 I1 7/1 S5 (IF 11.00+ BFSP)

4.55 – 

Bells N Banjos (hncp chase + m class/runs) 14/1 S2 

Muckle Roe (m 90 days) 14,30 16/1 S2A 

5.30 – 

Lord Condi (m class) (added info- handicap debut) w2 w1  14/1 S2 

Malachite (class move) 14,30 w2 11/2 

Mister Universum (m runs) I3 14/1 S2 

 

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KEY

H1/H3= HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)

G1/G3 = Geegeez GoldSpeed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated

I1/I3 =  Inform Racing Speed Ratings – Top Rated or Top 3

14,30 = Geegeez Goldtrainer form’ indicators14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr3010+ runs last 30 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr

ES –‘Elite Squad’ qualifiers:  Flat : HER 

ES +Elite Squad ‘Plus’ +   … those stats from stats packs with 10+ winners, 25% win strike rate. 

S1-S6 : S = ‘Strategy’ and refers to the ‘advised strategies’ in the link below. S1 = ‘Strategy 1’. Added on morning of racing along with the price. w1won last start.   w2won two starts ago (tracking as of 15th Feb 2018)

The Strategies: Where should you start? Some ideas HERE>>> (updated end Sept 2018)

‘Flat Strategies/results‘: Flat 2017 Read HERE>>>(updated to end Sept 2018)

‘Jumps Strategies/results’: Jumps 2017/18 Read HERE>>>(updated to end Sept 2018)

Research Articles: (TTP reports/Test Zone/Monthly Articles/Big Meetings Notes) READ HERE>>>

VIDEOS: Members Repository: HERE>>> . All Public (non members only) Videos HERE>>>

IMPORTANT:Welcome Info  HERE>>> (please read) (inc must watch videos :)) 

Contact: email:  – info@racingtoprofit.co.uk  … or failing that… racingtoprofit@gmail.com 

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2.Any Tips/Notes (Daily Tips/Festival Tips/other thoughts)

Daily Tips(2017 Sept-Dec: 31/176, +110.75) (2018: 28/304,96p, -4.2) (1 point win /1 pt EW bets) Festival Tips (2018: +156)

 

Daily Tips

5.20 Donc – See The Sun SEA – 1 point win – 16/1 (gen) 

Of the bigger priced flat qualifiers he looked interesting and worth a stab at 16s…he won LTO, admittedly a seller but a decent sized field and first run after a break. He’s unexposed in handicaps and below his last winning mark, he handles cut and is better for it, and won’t mind if it gets softer and he’s the only front runner in the race – on paper. I couldn’t leave him at that price, so fingers crossed.

 

Big Race/Festival Tips

4.55 Chelt 

Asking Questions – 1 point win – 12/1 11/1 (gen)

Vinegar Hill – 1 point win – 12/1 11/1 (gen)

I’m running out of time now but as i bothered with the trends I thought I best try and use them! These two look overpriced, they arrive fit and in form, and both are unexposed over fences. They also both race prominently and arguably have two of the better jockeys on in this race. I thought they were worth a go at double figures. Of course this track/fences may end up being too much for them but there’s only one way to find out and with any luck these two may have it between them some way from home!

5.30 Chelt  

Lord Condi – 1 point win – 20/1 (BV/BetfS/PP) 16/1 (gen)

Given the pointers below/above, the unexposed nature of the horse, his hard fitness, prominent style, proven stamina/going and the fact the trainer won this last year- well, I couldn’t help myself at this price. He will need to improve but big priced horses win this race often enough and given all the below, were he to go in at this price and I wasn’t on i’d be a bit sick, much more so than loaning back a precious point.

 

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That’s the lot for today… the more I look at Super’s race, the more I think she has a very good chance. But I won’t curse her by tipping her! There are plenty of unknowns – mainly the track/what she’ll be like in a big field – i think she will relish both.

The most interesting ones are And The New and Christmas in April, but both have fitness questions and the former has ground questions. But given his bumper form he’s one for the trackers and he runs as if this trip will unlock plenty more at some point. Canton Prince and Vive Le Roi also look interesting but are in a similar boat to us.

If she handles conditions, I don’t think she will be out the top 4! Famous last words.

 

TEST Best of the Stats Quals? (1/2,2p, +6) 

Nothing, out of time.

 

3.Micro System Test Zone

Jumps

D McCain (14/1< guide)

3.10 Chelt – Good Tradition 33/1

5.30 Chelt- Noah And The Ark 13/2

Paddy Brennan (14/1< guide)

2.00 Chelt – Grageelagh Girl 12/1

2.35 Chelt – All Set To Go 20/1

Autumn Trainers

NTD (22/1<) 

4.55 Chelt – Muckle Roe 16/1

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Handicap Chase System Starting Points (10/1< best)

4.55 Chelt – Another Frontier 15/2

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Flat

Top of The Class 

2.15 Newb – Franz Kafka 10/11

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

REALLY SUPER…

It’s SUPER TIME! In this feature film you get a peak into how this owner’s eyes see things…

-first 20 mins.. some pics, in praise of the team, and ‘Super’s story’- her breeding and her runs/form story to date

-final 30 mins… race preview

It’s a very very competitive race, but she should be 10s+ and there’s no reason for me not to go in with a chunky EW wager, 4 places! Hopefully most of us are playing with ‘Super’ money after her last two wins 🙂 

There are some race trends, as below..i’ll see if they throw up a shortlist later…

3.10 Chelt 

10/10 aged 5-7 (only 8 4 year olds, 4 of those 20s+) 

10/10 0-1 handicap hurdle wins (2 only- Super- 0/30,8p, inc 2nd/3rd/4th last year) 

10/10 12/1 or shorter SP

10/10 places at least once last three runs

10/10 – 0-8 runs in handicap hurdles 

9/10 top 5 LTO

9/10 carried 10-7 – 11-1 (11-2 + 1/61,11p, more higher rated horses in this than some editions though) 

8/10 0-4 runs in handicap hurdles (good!) 

6/10 ran 16-45 days ago (6/52,17p) 

Trainers: 

G Elliot: 2/4,3p (two runners) 

1x: C Longsdon/R Dickin/J Snowden/N Henderson/T Vaughan/A King / J Flint / L Russell

Shortlist:

Well aged 4-7, 0-2 hndcp hurdle wins (ahem!) , placed once+ last 3 runs, 0-8 runs in hncp hurdles, leaves 10…(12/1< could guide)

Canton Prince / First Assignment / Really Super / Christmas In April / Lungarno Palace / Brillare Momento / Melody of Scotland / And The New / Mellow Ben / Roi De Dubai

(those in bold, hit ALL the 10/10 stats as above 🙂 )

I appear to have some micros saved for this meeting. 10/1 or shorter is best but before odds considerations, that leaves…

Canton Prince / Christmas In April / Lungarno Palace / Water Sprite  

Some cross over there.

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4.55 Cheltenham 

10/10 aged 5-9

10/10 14/1< SP

10/10 had 1+ run this season (9/10 had 1-3)

10/10 ran 11-120 days ago

10/10 had 1-4 chase wins

10/10 had run 3m1.5f or further in career at least once

TrainersL: x2 – Mulholland/NTD/I Williams : x1 McCain/ Bowen / F O’Brien

10/10 stats leave 10/43,16p, +61 BFSP last decade and leave…

Another Frontier / Asking Questions / Sam Red / Cadu Du Brizais / Vinegar Hill / Fifty Shades / Under The Phone

those with 1-3 season runs are 9/25,12p, +68 within that, albeit 0/2 last year. Those are in bold. 

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5.30 Cheltenham 

Not much to go on here, but 10/10 OR was SAME or higher than LTO. 8/10 also had 3-7 runs this season, so hard fit… that leaves four…

Silver Star / Noah And The Ark / Lord Conti / Chieftan’s Choice

Again I have a micro or two for this race and they both throw up the same horses, both mentioned above also.. Noah And The Ark / Lord Conti 

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Chelt October Meeting Trainer Stats 

5 years…

Paul Nicholls 

ALL 12/35,16p, +17 BFSP 

  • NOT handicap chases: 12/28,14p, +24 (simple micro) 
    • Top 3 LTO: 10/19,12p, +27 
    • 0 track runs: 6/8,6p 

 

Nigel Twiston-Davies

ALL 7/39,12p, +6 

  • Handicaps: 4/18,6p, +19
    • Distance: 2m, 3m, 3m.5f, 3m1.5f….  4/8, 5p, +29 
  • All: aged 5-8: 7/28,12p, +17 
  • 1+ run at track: 6/23,8p, +19 

 

Nicky Henderson

  • Handicap Hurdles: 3/12,5p, 18

 

Those three will do for this meeting, you can have too much information after all, and all three yards are in form/going well. 

If any of you would be so kind as to post any ‘qualifiers’, feel free! 🙂 That will be on the bottom of my to-do list and is a busy few days, albeit shouldn’t be too hard to find yourselves if you wish to use them, given it’s a two day meeting. Thanks in advance. 

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

33 Responses

  1. u.s. Racing Thursday evening – Santa Anita race 8, 00.44 UK time, Exes N Ohs, 2 points each way, circa 6/1 now. It looks between the selection and the favourite! If a non runner, no bet.

    Good luck all and Really Super.

  2. No joy again tonight. 1 NR means -3pts for the day.

    Back to Kempton tomorrow. Only two qualifiers, both in the same race:
    6.45 Francisco Bay 25/1 (EW) & Amjaady 10/3

    0.5pt EW for FB and 1pt win for Amj. I’ll be having a small forecast as well.

    Good Luck

  3. Still raging that I can’t make it to Cheltenham tomorrow Josh. Very jealous. I’ll be back in time to watch it on TV with fingers, toes and evreything else crossed for a good result. I may have had a small wager at 12s EW 5 places 🙂 . Have a great day. Hope to join up with the rest of the syndicate one day. Sounds like good fun.

    1. Ah bollocks! Not the result we wanted but she ran ok. Wasn’t far off the pace most of the way round. Just didn’t seem to have enough in the tank near the end. I guess I’ll have wait until I can attend to experience the feeling of owning a winner.

  4. 3.35 Donc – Aeolus 10/1 1pt e/w
    Finished a close 5th last year off 101. Runs this year off 97 and this time has the services of Jamie Spencer over this straight 6f. Spencer has a v good record over this c/d and rides well for Ed Walker.

  5. Qualifiers for ‘Trainers with a 50% place strike rate in the past 14 days with at least 5 qualifiers’:
    2.50 Nb Dorella
    4.00 Nb Molls Memory
    4.10 Don Darksideoftyneside
    4.35 Nb Dark Power
    5.10 Nb Becca Campbell
    5.45 KP Abel Tasman & Warmhearted
    6.15 KP Skydiving
    7.45 KP Show Of Strength
    8.15 KP Sayem & Finishing Touch.

    ‘Irish trained runners (Exc A O’Brien) in England or Wales’:
    5 from Gordon Elliott at Cheltenham:
    2.00 Make My Heart Fly
    3.10 High Expectations & Water Sprite
    4.55 Presenting Julio
    5.30 Silver Star.

    Good luck.

    1. I missed the other Irish qualifiers!!
      2.00 Chn Go Another One & Canardier
      3.10 Chn Roi De Dubai
      3.35 Don Gymkhana
      4.45 Escapability
      4.55 Chn Oighear Dubh

  6. Yesterday’s Qualifiers….4 selections….1 non runner…1 loser – 2pts…….2 placed, so overall profit + 1pt on the day for the qualifiers….Not good for the Of Interest selections -13 loss overall with only one selection placing at odds of 14/1 @1/5th the odds…Not enough reliability to continue with the Of Interest horses so will focus on the Qualifiers only with only one selection per race…if borderline they will not be included.. Todays Qualifiers below:
    15.10. Chelt. Court Minstrel
    16.00. Newb. Outer Space
    17.20. Donc. Tha’ir
    17.30. Chelt. Mad Jack Mytton
    21.00 Dun. Georgian Bay
    Gd Lck if playing.

  7. Hi Josh

    Good luck with Reaaly Super today and enjoy I will be travelling down to hotel this afternoon as I am at Cheltenham tomorrow to see our Syndicate Horses being paraded before racing I will say hello if I see you

    Peter

  8. RECENT TIPS
    Daily
    C 3.10 – Court Minstrel on 3rd run @ 13/2
    C 4.55 – Sporting Boy on 1st run @ 16
    D 3.35 – Amazour on 1st run @ 16
    …………Teruntum Star on 2nd run @ 4
    D 5.20 – Dutch Artist on 10th run @ 50 ( 5 plcs?)
    N 2.50 – Escape The City on 2nd run @ 8
    K 5.45 – Biotic on 2nd run @ 18
    K 8.15 – Syrian Pearl on 1st run @ 25
    Festival
    C 4.55 – Robinroyale on 2nd run @ 100
    C 5.30 – Mister Universum on 3rd run @ 18
    D 3.35 – Teruntum Star on 3rd run @ 4
    3m+
    C 4.55 – Sporting Boy on 1st run @ 16
    ………..Goohar on 2nd run @ 25
    GL
    Mike

  9. COLINS BETS

    No bet today

    Coming to the end of turf flat season,thankfully the AW will be starting in earnest, Hooray.

  10. May I add my best wishes for Really Super today Josh.
    I see that the 3.10 at Cheltenham is the first of Bet 365’s 2 feature races today, so when “Super” wins, we all have a free bet in the 4.35 at Newbury!
    You were certainly right about not diving in to take the 10s yesterday afternoon, plenty of 16s about this morning.

  11. Chris M Selections
    Doncaster:
    15:35 – Victory Angel (9/1 gen)
    Going at Doncaster declared as Good-soft, good in places. My hope is with the dry weather expected for the day that the cut reduces for this one. Has won 3 times on faster ground over the 6f trip one of which came one over C&D. Varian is in cracking form at the moment 10 from 39 in the last 14 days, his record at track is not too shabby either with a quarter of his horses getting the win. Jockey Egan has a similar course record with 1 in four of his rides winning. Odds pulled me into this one, shade too high for me.
    16:45 – Jamil (15/1 gen)
    Similar reasoning to the one above. The ground drying up would probably help the argument here and Egan and Varian join forces for this one again. Looked lacklustre on his return LTO but will come on from that run after a break. Step up in trip but has breeding which gives hope that this trip could be his preferred. I expect him to be in the fight near the finish.

    Newbury:
    16:00 – Golden Slam (8/1 gen)
    One who will appreciate the cut in the ground in today’s race and with showers expected throughout the day the closer to soft it gets the better for him I reckon. Has won in GS and SFT ground before with the most recent win coming at Yarmouth over today’s trip. Atzeni was booked for that ride and he is back on today, between him and Varian they are both showing 14 day form at the moment and at 8’s I reckon there is another win to add.

    Cheltenham:
    17:30 – Mister Universum (18/1 with a few and 16/1 gen)
    It was between the selection and Minellaforleisure for me but the break since January for the later swayed me, watch him bolt up now. LTO the trip did not suit him so the drop back in trip will give improvement today. He is only 4 pounds above his last winning mark when winning back in May at Worcester so can still be competitive today. For me 18’s convinced me, even at 16’s I’d pay to see how he runs today.

    Good luck today with any bets and good luck to Josh and the Really Super team at Cheltenham. I will have a EW bet on and cheering her up the home straight 🙂

  12. posted last night on yesterdays.
    today’s selections.sorry no write ups off to bed and out all day with my Dad for his 87th birthday.
    Cheltenham 3-10. Golden Birthday 25-1 1/2 pt ew
    Doncaster 4-10. The Grand Visir 10-1 1/2 pt ew

  13. Nice winner yesterday, and a quite off second.
    Four today at Cheltenham:
    3:10 Mellow Ben 1pt each way
    3:45 Pickamix 1pt each way
    4:20 Some Day Soon 1pt each way
    4:55 Cucklington 1pt each way

    Good luck

    Ken

  14. Amy Murphy has this to say about hat-trick-seeker Really Super: “Fit and well in herself, this is another step up the ladder, but she’ll be staying on when others are fading and I hope she can put in a display everyone can be proud of, having squeezed in by the width of a fine coat of paint towards the bottom of the handicap.”

    Good Luck Josh & Co

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