Members Daily Post: 25/10/18 (complete)

Tip x1, Section 1 (comp), test zone, updates/freebies

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack

2.Any Tips/Notes (Daily Tips/Festival Tips/other thoughts)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack

JUMPS

Carlisle 

3.05 – 

Ex S’elance (hncp h) (added info- hncp debut) w2 28/1  UP

Black Art (micro TJC) w2 H3 I1 G1 8/1 S4  S1+S5 (IF 11.00+ BFSP) 

3.40 – Sharp Response (hncp c + m TJC) w2 7/1  WON 7/1 

4.45 – Danceintothelight (m dist move) H1 I3 G3 11/2 S4 3rd 

5.20 – 

Showem Silver (hncp c) 20/1 S2A UP

Dartford Warbler (hncp c) w1 H3 G3 6/1 UP

 

Ludlow

3.50 – Cernunnos (hncp chase) H3 I3 G3 11/4 S4 UP

 

Southwell

2.20 – Cybalko (nov hncps) (added info – hncp debut) H3 11/2 2nd 

4.00- Lord Fendale (hncp h) H3 G3 11/2 2nd 

4.35 – Reckless Behaviour (hncp h) ES+ I3 12/1 S2 S3A S5 UP

 

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KEY

H1/H3= HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)

G1/G3 = Geegeez GoldSpeed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated

I1/I3 =  Inform Racing Speed Ratings – Top Rated or Top 3

14,30 = Geegeez Goldtrainer form’ indicators14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr3010+ runs last 30 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr

ES –‘Elite Squad’ qualifiers:  Flat : HER Jumps 2017/18HERE>>>

ES +Elite Squad ‘Plus’ +   (rationale/ angles in link above)

S1-S6 : S = ‘Strategy’ and refers to the ‘advised strategies’ in the link below. S1 = ‘Strategy 1’. Added on morning of racing along with the price. w1won last start.   w2won two starts ago (tracking as of 15th Feb 2018)

The Strategies: Where should you start? Some ideas HERE>>> (updated end Sept 2018)

‘Flat Strategies/results‘: Flat 2017 Read HERE>>>(updated to end Sept 2018)

‘Jumps Strategies/results’: Jumps 2017/18 Read HERE>>>(updated to end Sept 2018)

Research Articles: (TTP reports/Test Zone/Monthly Articles/Big Meetings Notes) READ HERE>>>

VIDEOS: Members Repository: HERE>>> . All Public (non members only) Videos HERE>>>

IMPORTANT:Welcome Info  HERE>>> (please read) (inc must watch videos :)) 

Contact: email:  – info@racingtoprofit.co.uk  … or failing that… racingtoprofit@gmail.com 

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2.Any Tips/Notes (Daily Tips/Festival Tips/other thoughts)

Daily Tips(2017 Sept-Dec: 31/176, +110.75) (2018: 28/304,96p, -4.2) (1 point win /1 pt EW bets) Festival Tips (2018: +156)

 

Daily Tips

5.20 Carl – Showem Silver – 1 point win – 16/1 (gen) UP 20/1, market told the story there. Very odd. Had him up there, jumping well, looked good for a short while, then started to go backwards… not a ground issue at moment then, just a very out of form horse. Was a risk, but one to keep an eye on but clearly need to see more, as those conditions should have been fine – don’t think pace was increasing as he back-peddled, and he was outpaced. Not sure. Poor. Moving on. 

that’s all for today, 09.40… write up soon.. and two ‘best of the rest’…

This one may take some explaining but in the end there were too many interesting stats and one day, from this mark, this horse will win hard held for connections. He’s one to track, whatever he does. Provided he recaptures some of his better form when trained in Ireland…

Firstly the stats case…Candlish is 8/26,14p in handicap chases here the last 5 years, 4/16,10p when Quinlan rides, 7/15,11p in class 4 handicap chases. With 7 year olds/handicap chase/S Quinlan/ – 11/42,25p, 8/34,17p when in class 4.

The horse has 1st CP on and since the start of 2014, in handicap chases, 16/1< SP, with 1st headgear she is 5/12,9p… 0/3,2p with CP, 2/2 at Carlisle.

She’s 1/9,3p in that time with handicap chasers, 16/1<, that PU LTO… 4/22,8p since start of 2009.

So, there’s some decent numbers there as a foundation, at the odds. I would like to see some money, or certainly no drift, as not many of hers go in when sent off bigger than 16s.

The horse…

Well I think this is all about the ground and possibly going RH, given he’s never done anything going the other way round. His only handicap win was on handicap hurdle debut, on Good to soft, when hacking up off 112. He was raised to 124 and then came a 7L 4th in a big handicap at the Punchestown Festival, surrounded by horses in the mid to high 130s. Its those form lines/ratings that suggest IF new connections find the key, he will romp home again one day. He is only 7 and this is only his 5th handicap chase. It could be he’s not cut out for the chasing game but soft is a valid excuse the last twice, and on stable debut LTO (and going LH). He may have been racing over too far on some of his chase starts and was going ok at Kilbeggan in 1st blinkers, before diving at one 4 out, over 3m1f. He travelled/jumped well that day up to that point, and that was only 3 starts back in August.

This ground and this track, over this trip, could suit. He also comes here hard fit as well, which is a question for plenty in here. It looks an open enough handicap chase to my eyes. I’d put Amber Gambler and Bright Prospect as the main dangers, but I was guessing as to fitness as neither has won yet on seasonal reappearance. Neither has Dartford Warbler and he’s 11 but in form when last seen, nor has Skelton’s and the rest have even more searching questions.

Given the stats above etc, I couldn’t resist at 16s in the end. I took a while making my mind up though. But, he could scoot home here. I hope they may change it up and race him further forward, maybe that’s all he’s ever wanted also. He is one to track off this mark of 108 (not sure what his hurdles mark now is) but hopefully today’s the day.

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TEST Best of the Stats Quals? (1/2,2p, +6) 

I may experiment with flagging those horses that look most interesting from the stats qualifiers on this page (section 1, 3 and occasionally when anything in section 4, from big meeting notes etc) , sticking to 1 or 2 max. My new routine is to go through them all in some depth first, seeing if I can make a tipping case, and I need to be stricter on that front,before looking at the cards more generally. Essentially I will try and not over-think, and may not worry about price so much, especially at the top end (which is under 6s for me!). We shall see how that goes. I wouldn’t bet on these as such, albeit some will be strategy quals and you may have backed them anyway… in general they will be too short for ‘tipping’ purposes, or may have just failed to tick enough boxes for me. We shall see how they go.

2.20 South – Cybalko – 11/2 – 2nd (ran well, two well handicapped horses) DB is 8/21,10p all hncp chasers here in last 5 years, 7/15,9p over this distance. Since start of 2013 he’s 5/9,5p with all Novice handicap chasers at the track, 2/4 making chasing debut. On those stats alone he’s interesting, and maybe 11/2 is ok, in that context. It’s a handicap novice chase and he’s making chasing debut – two big red flags for why I wouldn’t tip him at this price, but have I just over-thought it! Trainer/jockey have done well in recent days and the yard are in form. He also ran his best race LTO, having taken a few runs to learn to settle. He was thereabouts 2 out, before fading. He now runs in a weak handicap and drops in trip. DB is usually all about chasing, and his horses do tend to jump well. We shall find out.

3.40 Carl- Sharp Response – 4/1 – WON 7/1 (ah bugger, why couldn’t that price have held this morning for longer! He’d have been tipped at that price. No surprise he hacked up there, but a positive for not over-thinking)  well i think the price has gone but this horse is the most interesting in this race by far to my eye. Trainer/jockey 8/28,14p at the track in handicap chases and he could really step forward this year. He has course form, not beaten too far by Mr Whitaker over a trip too short. He’d go on to win at Cheltenham for us. When last seen over fences he beat Red Infantry over 25f at Catt. He’d hack up on his next start off 119 and is now rated in the low 130s.  He had a pipe opener over hurdles when last seen, having run well for a long way. This is a qualifier for the series final, so it’s no impossible there’s a longer term plan but he’s open to progress. Were he 7s/8s+, i’d have tipped him, but again price is always so very subjective, and I think this looks between him and Twister’s horse. He should race prominently and runs as if he will relish this trip. He wasn’t high up on any of the ratings sets which always makes me nervous, esp at this price. But Longsdon’s wasn’t anywhere on them yesterday either, and they are only ever a guide.

So, I thought those two looked most interesting of all the stats qualifiers on this page, bar the main tip. No doubt a couple of others will romp home now but plenty had enough questions, especially fitness.

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3.Micro System Test Zone

Jumps

DMcCain (14/1< guide)

3.40 Carl- Mahler Lad 12/1 2nd

4.45 Carl- Danceintothelight 11/2

Paddy Brennan (14/1< guide)

2.20 South – Silent Account 14/1 UP

Autumn Trainers

NTD (22/1<) 

3.40 Carl- Ballymalin 5/2 UP

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Handicap Chase System Starting Points (10/1< best)

3.50 Lud- Hoke Colburn 6/4 WON 7/4 

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

 

Freebies…my good racing pal Ben Aitken is giving a few quality free guides away, including a look at those jumps trainers that do well with front runners. If you missed today’s email you can read it HERE>>>

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This weekend…an early note… i’m off down to Cheltenham on Friday to watch Really Super run, which provided she comes back safe will be a great day out. I still don’t know how good she could be and this will tell us plenty, including whether she likes undulations. I think she’ll relish the hill, but only one way to find out. I’m staying down in Cheltenham and will be there Saturday also, before heading back in the evening,  hoping to make Aintree on Sunday. If you see me around, do say hello! As always i’ll try and keep disruption to a minimum. All Saturday’s post is likely to be up on the morning of racing, but i’ll try and get up early and have a good look at the card (s).  Sunday’s section 1/3 I should be able to do on the train Sat evening…

Stats/trends... on Thursday i’ll have a look and see if there are any trainer/jockey pointers for this Cheltenham fixture and also if there are any trends for any of the handicaps. Hopefully some decent sized fields etc.

Chelt Stats Pointers…

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

35 Responses

  1. Qualifiers re ‘Trainers with a 50% place strike rate in handicaps in the past 14 days with at lease 5 qualifiers’:
    2.45 Lud, Sutter’s Mill
    3.05 Car, Cause Toujours
    3.50 Lud, Abbeygrey
    4.00 Sou, Fire Ahead
    5.15 Chm, Miss Green Dreams
    5.20 Car, Amber Gambler
    6.45 Chm, Glenn Coco & Robin Weathers & Global Melody
    7.45 Chm, Abel Tasman
    8.15 Chm, Its Not Unusual & Lucy’s Dream.

    Good luck.

  2. Better day yesterday on the Qualifiers with a profit of + 12pts (including losing bets) with Sors @ 8/1 SP (12.4 BSP) and Morney Wing @ 3/1 SP (4.41BSP) winning…Sors was a win only bet as was Morney Wing…Secret Asset placed at 10/1SP for a 1/5 of the odds….Paddy The Celeb was a non runner and Howlongisafoot a win only loser….As a rule of thumb I do not bet each way when there are less than 8 runners and if the price is below 10/1 @1/5 the odds and 8/1 @ 1/4 the odds and not keen betting short prices below 3/1 as you have to have a very good strike rate to make a profit and I am not that good…BOG is great for marginal decisions when deciding to take a short price about a qualifier as you get the better price if the horse drifts especially if around 8 or 10 to one…..quite often the price drifts higher than the odds taken which makes the place of more value….the Of Interest bets did not do well..-6 pts loss overall with Minature Daffodil returning at 28/1 SP for a place @1/4 the odds for a place BOG as the price drifted out just before the off. Todays Qualifers and Of Interest selections below:
    Qualifiers.
    15.40. Carlisle. Garrigdhoun.
    18.45. Chelm. London
    19.45. Chelm. Lacan
    20.15. Chelm. Mezmaar

    Of Interest. ( There were far too many so have stuck to one selection per race with the criteria of choosing the horse with the highest minus figure BELOW the last time they won.)
    14.45. Lud. Only Gorgeous
    15.45. Thurl. Voyage Of Discovery
    15.50. Lud. Irish Thistle
    16.10. Carl. Samtu
    16.20. Thurl. Path Of Silver
    16.35. South. Agincourt Reef
    16.45. Carl. Clondaw Banker
    16.55. Thurl. Hudsons Bay
    17.20. Carl. Dartford Warbler
    17.25. Thurl. Shaddagann
    19.15. Chelm. Gentlemen.
    Goodluck if you are playing.

  3. A better day on the AW today. Left it late but the last 2 came up trumps. Unfortunately a 45p Rule 4 on the 8.45N but a winner is a winner. We end the day with a profit of 6.08pts.

    Back to Chelmsford on Thursday. Qualifiers:
    5.15 Delectable 7/1
    6.45 Glenn Coco 7/1
    7.45 Michelle Strogoff 7/1
    8.15 Mezmaar 4/1

    All 1pt win

    Good Luck.

    1. Clearly something not right with Glenn Coco. Fell out the back early and just jogged up the home straight.

  4. Well done to Wednesdays winners my tipping lean spell goes on down to RT +1.5
    645 Ch Envisaging 5/1
    745 Ch Samphire Coast 12/1

  5. today’s selections.
    16:35 Southwell. Agincourt Reef 14-1 1/2 pt ew, fair effort lto when coming back from a break and should come on for that , very well handicapped should have every chance off this mark.
    15:40 Carlisle. Carrigdhoun 16-1 1/2pt ew, very much a veteran now but another that gets in off a very good mark and not disgraced lto and should come on loads for that, must have a chance if getting anywhere near his best.
    16:10 Carlisle. Sendiym 100-1 sky 4 places 1/2 pt ew, yes i’m probably going bonkers with this one but i can’t back Zabeel Star at evens, known as a Sedgefield specialist but i just can’t get away from this one running off a mark of 76. anyway to late now the moneys down 🙂

    1. well i thought i might as well compound my stupidity of backing one 100-1 shot by backing another Rory’s Valentine with a small ew in the same race , now where did i leave that brain i’m sure it was around here somewhere.

  6. Very sad news about Baden yesterday.
    Couple of seconds, with Mercian King very close to winning.
    Two for today.
    2:55 Rhaegar 2pts each way
    3:05 Cause Tojours 5pts win

    Ken

  7. RECENT TIPS
    Daily
    C 4.10 – Rorys Valentine on 3rd run @ 100
    L 2.45 – Midnight Gem on 4th run @ 9
    3m+
    C 3.40 – Ballymalin on 5th run @ 5/2
    GL

  8. Has anyone got any fancies for the 2.20 at Southwell for the bet365 free bet offer thanks to Josh’s winner yesterday?
    Thanks
    Dan

      1. Hopefully one or two who had a free bet with 365 went with Chozen, one of Ben Aitken’s “5 more well handicapped horses”. Sadly I didn’t have a free bet but did back Chozen. Any ideas for the 7.45 at Chelmsford anyone?

        1. Appears I picked the wrong one haha. Damn. Yep, good start for those. A great free report, as always from Ben.

  9. I think Lord Fendale should read 11/2 not 11/1, hence isn’t an S2 qualifier and will only be S1 qualifier if drifts.

    1. Ah yes, cheers. Typo there, 11s would be a better price for him! Hopefully obviously not an S2 when seeing prices/going to bet, but maybe a bonus winner for some if they follow it.

  10. Two for today,

    Sharp Response / Lord Balim 15:40 @Carlisle
    Malangen / Permission Granted 16:10 @Carlisle

    All 4 to win, use dutching to achieve profit from the two races.

  11. Felt like back to normal yesterday with Sors getting a nice win and the other 2 in with a chance where it counts.

    Chris M Selections
    Southwell:
    14:20 – Chateau Chinon (33/1 gen)

    Carlisle:
    16:10 – Permission Granted (11/1 gen)

    Thurles:
    17:35 – Magna Cartor (22/1 gen)

    Chelmsford:
    19:45 – Lacan (7/1 gen, some higher odds about but will be tracked at shown price)

    Due to hard rive on my computer failing this morning and needing a system image restore which is still on going (had to do my analysis on my phone), I don’t have the time to do any kind of write up on the selections. Apologies, hopefully get the computer fixed and do some write ups later

  12. I’ve been producing my own all weather speed figures for a few years now, and they’ve proved quite successful. I’ll start sharing bits as we move into November (usually best to tread carefully until the turf season is properly finished). Not a huge amount of value tonight at Chelmsford as far as I can see, but I do like Quick Breath 5/1 in the 6:45

    1. good stuff Paul, that will be a fascinating and appreciated addition to the comments. Plenty on here do appear to like the sand!! 🙂

  13. Hopefully I’ll be giving you a shout tomorrow when you are in winners enclosure after Really Super runs
    Noticed that Elliot has a number of entries for the weekend when he hasn’t really targeted in the past – has had winners though e.g. Tiger Roll – worthy of some analysis?

    1. cheers. Blimey it’s a competitive race on paper, but the pace set up is all in her favour. 4/5 horses to give her a lead, sit behind, in a ‘no excuses position’. Elliot has actually won the 3.10 twice, he’s 2/4,3p, the only multiple winner in 10 years, and he’s two entered.

  14. Nice winner with Sharp Response. I had 1 point win at 5/1 PP so got paid 7/1 with the b.o.g
    That will do me nicely. Thx Josh

    1. Good stuff Richard, glad you took note. Yep I couldn’t let him go off at that price un-backed, think i had a go when he hit 6s/13/2, albeit 8.51 BFSP. Shame that price didn’t hold this morning- didn’t get round to him quick enough but maybe that slightly non price based mindset may work in that ‘test’ section, if a solid case can be made in my head for a stats pick- price point is always the hardest part and i’ve long given up on my ability under 6s/8s!

    1. don’t all load in just yet haha. I’ll wait for it to form, hopefully some 14s+ around… diving in when they are only one priced up is a quick way to getting your account noted!
      with 4 places she’s worth a solid EW wager, in context that we’re playing with ‘super’ money 🙂

  15. Josh, your plan to further look into some of the strategy qualifiers is sound as you know you are starting from a solid basis. I for one would very much appreciate such a move. And while it’s hard don’t get too hung up on price because I and fellow members are not averse to a few multiples!

    Well done today, fingers crossed for Silver at 5.20 and good luck with Super tomorrow – enjoy!

    1. Ha, yep I fully agree… well I really should practice what I preach in that ignoring strategies etc, they are all solid starting points! But I would tend to just ignore those under 6s/13/2 as a matter of course, when clearly some have very sound chances, and of course odd one will drift! I really should be making more use of my content! I’m getting into a process of being more thorough. I need to re-gig my routine and actually do first flick through all stats qualifiers evening before when I can, albeit I like to switch off at 6 – but that main stats research pack is done now, i’m in process of writing up a launch of members club with strict eye on numbers, and outside of that, it really is all about content/taking time to look at everything properly. Focusing on 1-2 may help the mind, albeit did think Hoke colburn looked very good also, but 6/4… but i’ll get better with those- Never Learn another example yesterday, he bolted up…and actually boosted the form for the winning tip. Anyway, there’s always logic, so you can use them as you please. It will be interesting if such a test can tick along in profit itself. It may help cover those that I over-think for one reason or another (often price wise) but make a case for in my head.

      Yep, some money for him but last 10 mins of market will reveal- if he drifts back out to 16s+, then I won’t hold out any hope. First 3 fences will give me some clue I think.

      Cheers, just posted a video in tomorrow’s post. A very tough race but definite EW chance. but provided she comes home it will be a great day. She’s got plenty more wins in her in next few years.

  16. today’s selections.sorry no write ups off to bed and out all day with my Dad for his 87th birthday.
    Cheltenham 3-10. Golden Birthday 25-1 1/2 pt ew
    Doncaster 4-10. The Grand Visir 10-1 1/2 pt ew

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