Members Daily Post: 24/10/18 (complete)

Tips x2, Section 1 (comp), test zone

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack

2.Any Tips/Notes (Daily Tips/Festival Tips/other thoughts)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack

FLAT 

Newmarket 

None. 

 

JUMPS

Worcester

2.25 – I’dliketheoption (hncp c) w2 H3 I1 G1 4/1 S4 UP

3.00- Gunfleet (nov hncps) w2 w1 H3 7/2 

 

Fontwell

1.40 – Fenlans Court (m TJC) H3 7/1  WON 7/1>9/2 

3.25 – 

Howlongisafoot (m runs) 14,30 H3 G1 11/2 UP

Never Learn (90 days) w1 H1 I1 G3 6/4 S4 WON 6/4>5/2 

4.35 – Hardtorock (m TJC) w1 H1 I3 G3 Evens S4  UP

 

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KEY

H1/H3= HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)

G1/G3 = Geegeez GoldSpeed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated

I1/I3 =  Inform Racing Speed Ratings – Top Rated or Top 3

14,30 = Geegeez Goldtrainer form’ indicators14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr3010+ runs last 30 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr

ES –‘Elite Squad’ qualifiers:  Flat : HER Jumps 2017/18HERE>>>

ES +Elite Squad ‘Plus’ +   (rationale/ angles in link above)

S1-S6 : S = ‘Strategy’ and refers to the ‘advised strategies’ in the link below. S1 = ‘Strategy 1’. Added on morning of racing along with the price. w1won last start.   w2won two starts ago (tracking as of 15th Feb 2018)

The Strategies: Where should you start? Some ideas HERE>>> (updated end Sept 2018)

‘Flat Strategies/results‘: Flat 2017 Read HERE>>>(updated to end Sept 2018)

‘Jumps Strategies/results’: Jumps 2017/18 Read HERE>>>(updated to end Sept 2018)

Research Articles: (TTP reports/Test Zone/Monthly Articles/Big Meetings Notes) READ HERE>>>

VIDEOS: Members Repository: HERE>>> . All Public (non members only) Videos HERE>>>

IMPORTANT:Welcome Info  HERE>>> (please read) (inc must watch videos :)) 

Contact: email:  – info@racingtoprofit.co.uk  … or failing that… racingtoprofit@gmail.com 

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2.Any Tips/Notes (Daily Tips/Festival Tips/other thoughts)

Daily Tips(2017 Sept-Dec: 31/176, +110.75) (2018: 28/303,96p, -3.2) (1 point win /1 pt EW bets) Festival Tips (2018: +156)

Daily Tips

2.50 Font – Smart Boy – 1 point win – 6/1 (gen) UP 7/1 UP

4.10 Worc – Montys Award – 1 point win –  WON 11.4/1> 4/1  (5p R4) 

that’s all for today, 09.16, write ups…

 

Smart Boy – I thought this looked a 2 horse race to my increasingly dodgy eyes and that he was a couple of points too big. Jack Barber is a small trainer to keep onside as he knows the time of day and can get them fit at home. This one bolted up on his seasonal reappearance last season and he’ll be fit enough to run his race. Barber had a winner 4 days back at Market Rasen returning after 237 days off. This one has some winter form to his name and arrives here on the back of a win when last seen. The front two were miles clear that day and there’s every chance he could come back stronger this season and progress even further. He races prominently and Schofield rides the track well – 5/19,8p in the last year. He didn’t finish outside of the top 3 last season and hopefully can start this season as he did last, building on his 2/6,5p in handicap hurdles to date. Canyon City does look the main danger having bolted up 5 days ago and it could be he’s just turned a corner over 20f. However that was a poor race on paper to my eyes and I wanted to take him on. That may prove foolish this looks a bit deeper and he races at a different track now, with a stiffer climb to the line. He’ll run well and these two could be clear of the rest. I think some of these will need the run, look out of sorts, and need to step forward. Royal Plaza has been in form over fences but his trainer is now 0/65,9p in the last couple of years and is now 0/8,2p with a mark above 120. There’s been some money for The Premier Celtic who is unexposed over hurdles and was running ok when last seen, but was going to get beat into 2nd/3rd before falling. The horse hasn’t proven he can run well fresh (has only had one go) but His trainer is only 4/126,15p with handicappers returning 60+ days, 1/41 over timber. No doubt he’ll now improve on those stats. Wind Place And Sho is a bit of a monkey and this looks deeper than recent efforts to my eyes but did win LTO. Anyway, I think the selection has the best handicap hurdle form on what they’ve done to date, and there was some juice in his price against the fav.

Monty’s Award – this is a competitive race on paper and given my struggles probably one I should sit out but I couldn’t resist a nibble on this one as it feels like this has been the plan and at the odds, was the one horse in here who I thought could be very well handicapped. He bolted up first time in his bumper here 2 years ago and ran well here when last seen in August, in a qualifier for this. I think he may have been put away for 63 days deliberately to protect his mark. That was his first run after a wind-op and he’s bred to relish 20f. His two best runs have now been on good ground. They pitched him into a couple of decent handicaps when last seen, in the mud, which makes me think they like him, and it was the form of those Uttoxeter novice hurdle 3rds which interested me. He wasn’t beaten far (1 1/2 L) by Midnight Shadow last October who’s opening handicap mark was 134, and is now rated 140. The horse behind him that day would go on to win a C4, and a C3 handicap, now rated 128. The horse he beat in 2nd way back in that bumper is now 124 and in his Uttoxeter run last November he stuffed Captain Peacock, who’s top weight here and lost narrowly to Francky Du Berlais LTO. All indications are that at some point this horse is going to show himself to be very well handicapped off 114. The yard is in decent form – 4/20,6p the last 14 days, Sean Bowen rides which I found interesting. He’s just a jockey to follow generally, especially over fences, but is 9/32,14p here in the last year, all rides. The horse usually races prominently but given they step him up in trip I hope they take a lead from the 3/4 others who can go forward. That may held him settle better also. With any luck he storms to victory over the last but at 12s I was happy to have a dart to find out. It’s not a typical C2 as nothing has placed at that level, and none have won a C3 as yet either. Something will prove themselves well handicapped here, and I thought he looked the most interesting at the prices. I’d like to see Peggies Venture run well, given she chased home Super when last seen. There’s a chance she could appreciate a stronger pace here and is no forlorn hope,but is open to attack from something with more in hand.

 

 

3.Micro System Test Zone

Jumps 

Paddy Brennan (14/1< guide)

4.10 Worc – Max Liebermann 66/1

Autumn Trainers

E Lavelle 

3.00 Worc – Gunfleet 7/2

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

NEW #1Feature/Guest Post: The Little Black Book read HERE>>>

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NEW #2 Trainer Track Profiles: Jumps 2018/19. Final stats pack, got there eventually…  READ HERE>>>

 

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Post Comments

Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

53 Responses

      1. If it helps, bearing in mind I usually get early morning odds I only bet w2 on the flat and both over jumps.

          1. Not great… as per ‘Flat Strategies/results’ link in Key (which I updated yesterday/shared a few days back)…
            RESULTS
            • Won LTO: 27/147,51p, -17.3
            • Won 2 starts ago: 20/132,41p, -15
            • Total: 47/279, 92p, -32.3

            a decent enough ‘starting point’ given number of winners but systematically not great at moment. Appears to be harder on flat to follow up, or revised marks usually do for you, albeit in a code where results often decide much more by split second decisions, pace set up, etc. Think there are logical reasons why may do better over jumps but have stressed before the results to date have mainly been over summer jumps/weaker races in term of depth/consistency of animals, so will be interesting to see how it does in the winter.

          2. I haven’t gone through all results but one reason why w1 on the flat performs less well may be as Josh suggested the finer margins of added weight/going up in grade etc and also the odds are generally less attractive. The w2’s are more under the radar and offer better value especially early morning and very rarely win at better/equal sp.

          3. All depends when you’re able to bet. My prof on w2 up to 21/10 is 34.47pts, sp will be a tad above half that.

          4. yep those stats above are to end of Sept,where they were -15 on the flat since started tracking, to morning odds that I add at 8am. Clearly evening before prob bigger – but yep last 3 weeks must have been decent!? They’ll all be updated come end of October again.
            w2 could make some send on flat- you win- connections either may run them quickly again, maybe too quickly, before reassessed. Or run them quick as they know in form, maybe in far from ideal conditions, or put them up in class, which they find too hot, before dropping back in class and winning. Has been a handful of those I can remember, where a clear excuse for LTO run, before winning again/returning to form of the w2 win.

    1. Yep separate and counted as such. So as with gunfleet it will be recorded twice , once for w2 and once for w1. There are not too many qualifiers like that but haven’t been tracking when both w2 and w1. Some may be following just w1 or both and if latter as such should back it twice, technically. But up to those who follow as may well even out over time.

  1. Nothing from Kempton on Monday -6pts. One winner at Newcastle this afternoon but nothing from Kempton tonight -2.5pts.

    Chelmsford and Newcastle on Wednesday. Qualifiers:
    Chelmsford
    6.00 Four Wheel Drive 4/1
    6.30 Magical Duchess 8/1
    8.30 Hard Toffee 6/1

    Newcastle
    5.15 Monjeni 11/2 & Airton 9/1
    8.45 Ring Dancer 13/2

    All 1pt win and a small rev forecast for me on the 5.15

    Good Luck

  2. I’ve been doing some research on my data for exactas/forecasts. This shows that since I started posting in Dec 2017, if I’d placed a 1pt reverse exacta/forecast (ie. 2 bets at 1pt each) on each of the pairs I’ve tipped, I would’ve made a loss of 374pts for exacta and 403pts for bookies reverse forecast.

    However, since June, when I focussed in a bit more on my selections, I would’ve made a profit of 66pts for exacta and 44pts for forecast. That’s based on 8 wins from a total of 130 races so there will be long periods where there are no returns. All bar one of those wins came from Newcastle or Kempton which fits neatly with my current approach where I will only ever post pairs at those two courses.

    Now I’m not saying you should dive in there with every pair that I tip but it’s food for thought. It’s a fairly short time period and the number of AW meetings in the summer is significantly less than through the winter, so it could increase the losing periods but hopefully it will also increase the winning pairs.

    If you do wish to follow, please start off cautiously with small stakes and have a suitable sized bank. Maybe one of the more learned contributors could comment on what size bank would be reasonable for this kind of approach. I’m not too sure myself TBH.

      1. I’d be cautious with that Ken at the moment unless a sound logical reason for why they should continue… do you generally have more success when tipping 2 in a race as opposed to 1? anyway… to your question… a win SR of around 7.5% = 100 losers or so to be expected every 1000 bets – that’s at 1 point a time though, so you could hit a run of -200 points at some point, on that simple basis. Will be interesting to track anyway. 66 points from a 180 odd outlay isn’t to be sniffed at but i’d be playing with small change at the moment if you’re following them.

        1. Ken, did you not say there was an 80/1 winner amongst that? 66 points profit with 80 coming from one bet would increase caution for me if I’ve read it right

          1. Hi Chris, yes I did say 80 but it was actually 60. I should check before opening my mouth!! I guess with forecasts, particularly big ones, they will only come up occasionally. I have said proceed with caution. If you want to wait it out, I will be tracking them and will provide a monthly updates to see where it goes from here.

          2. The seven winners were as follows, with exacta 1st and forecast 2nd:
            21.6, 22.2
            15.6, 13.79
            50.7, 49.18
            24.9, 25.4
            12.9, 14.01
            82.5, 61.93
            24, 23.7

            To answer Josh’s question about logic, the picks are the qualifiers I put up daily. In some races I have 2 picks and these are the ones I will track. No additional logic.

  3. Overall a bad day….Qualifiers -12 pts (one no bet Aristocracy as price too short) Of Interest selections = -10.4 overall inspite of a 7/1 w/o bet of Life Knowledge winning)…that is the problem of having a lot of selections, especially two or three in one race. Will see how the rest of the week pans out and just have one selection per race. Todays Qualifers:
    15.15. Navan. Sors
    15.25. Font. Howlongisafoot
    1635. Font. Morney Wing
    17.35. Navan. Paddy The Celeb
    19.30. Chelm. Secret Asset.

    Of Interest.
    13.40. Font. Keep To The Best
    14.15. Font. Heurtevent
    16.25. Nav. Master Bond
    16.50. Chelm. Minature Daffodil
    15.55. Nmkt. Hidden Pearl
    20.00. Chelm. Divine Call
    20.15. Newc. Clary
    20.30. Chel. Understory.

    Caution advised. Gd lck if playing.

    1. Highland Pass looks to be still improving and should be able to make this step up in class from last run nothing else in the field is anywhere near as interesting bar Flying North 33-1 who i will be having a small ew saver on.
      Waikiki Waves cd winner earlier in year looks to have optimum trip and going and has every chance of repeating that win off a 5lb higher mark.
      Not a tip but i will be having a small ew on Mystic Sky 14-1 in the 2-50 Fontwell

  4. Hi,
    I have been working on a system on the jumps based on geegeez data, with no nick I thought I’d post some tips
    1:40 Black Anthem 5pt win
    2:25 Mercian King 4pt win
    3:00 Baden 5pt win, Gunfleet 2pt each way
    4:35 Quinton 4pt each way

    Good luck today to everyone.

    Ken (not McKenzie)

  5. RECENT TIPS
    Daily
    W 1.50 – Psychocandy on 7th run @ 9/2
    C 4.50 – French Kiss on 2nd run @ 7
    Nc 5.15-Dominating on 5th run @ 13/2
    Festival
    Nv 3.15-Sors on 6th run @ 9
    Nv 5.35- Mastermind on 4th run @ 7
    GL

  6. COLINS BETS

    No bet today

    Yesterday their was potential 9 other bets than our one loser.
    Thankfully i read the negatives correct for there was only 1 winner at evens ,7 losers and one N/R,so on the day lost only 1 point with the bet we had on Mercers.

  7. Chris M Selections
    Worcester:
    14:25 – Mercian King (5/1 gen)
    CD winner just under 2 weeks ago, given a 7lb rise for that win but that might not be enough to stop him getting the double today. Murphy has an excellent record round here with 4 wins from 9 runs and jockey Quinlan has 2 wins from 9 in the last 14 days coupled with +36.25 to 1 pt wins bet at the track. The odds reflect the up in weights but I still think there is a shade of value in the price. I did look at I’dliketheoption but too many niggles for me.

    Navan:
    15:15 – Sors (9/1 gen)
    Looked to be finishing fast when claiming 5th over 5f 10 days ago, looking at that race the 2 market leaders at the moment only finished narrowly ahead of him and both receive a 1lb rise for that performance, Sors drops 1lb and is now on a very nice mark some 7 or 8 below where he has won before. Given this I think 9’s is a tad disrespectful and has a lot of value for us.

    Newcastle:
    18:45 – Lincoln Red (10/1 gen)
    Has been looking like he needed the step up to 7f for some time now and being gelded seem to bring him on LTO so I am expecting a nice win today from him. The booking of jockey Mitchell could bring on further improvement as he seems to be in a nice vein of form having won 8 from 34 rides in the 14 days. Looking for a big run n today from him.

    Good luck with any bets today 🙂 . Giving my recent losing streak thought I’d take a bit of time to do a write up on my selections just so people can see my rambling behind the selection and maybe give some context for the performance.

    1. Grateful for the mention of Sors as I tend not to look at Irish racing, but knew it was a back as soon as I looked at the race 🙂
      I’d already backed the other two so it’s a case of great names think alike, at least for today!

      1. well done Chris, can’t say I ventured over to Ireland today, but yep that 2lb swing has helped. Odd he went down 1 and the other two up 1 for finishing close enough to each other. I assume he made all- small field probably helped and other two look like come from further back, and not a cavalry charge like LTO. Great spot and good price/logic.

        1. Chrisrees, my pleasure. Hopefully the runner later on gives us another nice win 🙂

          Cheers Josh, much like your winner today it is a confidence boost. Just glad to see the logic holding true and producing a winner. If the logic stays true for tonight’s runner my October may be looking green again, fingers crossed!

  8. Qualifiers for (Trainers with a 50% place strike rate in handicaps in the past 14 days with at least 5 qualifiers’:
    1.50 Wor Marienstar
    2.50 FP Canyon City
    3.00 Wor Oh Land Abloom and Gunfleet
    4.50 Chm Carolyn’s Voice
    6.00 Chm Gregarious Girl.

    No Irish runners today.

  9. 4:10 Worcester – DORY 6/1 ew (PP 4 places)
    Rated 111, Ed Austin takes 7lb off so effectively runs off 104 and carries 10-0.
    C&D 2nd 3 runs back has worked out well, the horse that beat her having won 3 times since and now rated 132. Dory has proven that she handles the track, the brush hurdles, and the ground.
    LTO beaten 1/2 length by Kristal Hart conceding 24lbs. KH subsequently finished 2nd in a Handicap Hurdle at Plumpton off 90. The 3rd that day Scented Lily, received 4lb from Dory and beaten a neck, has subsequently won a Market Rasen Novice Handicap off 107 by 4.5 lengths.
    Dory (by Westerner) has 2 half sisters that have raced, both by Shantou. Thanks For Tea is rated 123 over timber and 129 over fences and has won a handicap hurdle off 118. Teochew is now rated 105, but did finish 2nd off 116 in 2014 and has achieved RPR of 123 over hurdles.
    The Trainer is 65/13/29 last 30 days for a £13.38 level stakes profit.
    I.Williams is 4/2/4 last 12 months with his handicap hurdlers at Worcester.
    I.Williams operates at a level stakes profit with horses in 2nd handicap.
    I.Williams in middle distance jumps races last 2 years is 193/36/73 for £29.08 level stakes profit.
    Dory gets first time cheek pieces today. Williams usually operates at a strike rate of around 15%, but when he reaches for the first time pieces that improves to 22%.
    Jockey Edward Austin has a career record over hurdles of 49/7/17 for £26.50 level stakes profit.
    In Handicap Hurdles that improves to 43/7/14 for £32.50 profit.
    In the last 2 seasons Austin has ridden 28 handicap hurdlers for Williams, 5 winners and 9 placed for £38.50 level stakes profit.
    Austin is 4/2/3 at the track last 12 months.
    I took 17/2 last night but 6/1 4 places with PP still looks good value.

  10. 715 Roger Fell has Geography Teacher in this weak event. Possible tomake excuses for 3 losses since gelding and money has been seen 11/1

  11. Would any body have reasoning as go why Richard Johnston is riding for j Eustace in the 2.50 while p Hobbs uses M Nolan ( without any weight pulls this season ) would it be a tip in itself ?

    1. maybe, hard to read into those bookings esp this example.. M Nolan is the regular pilot of that horse, not sure if that’s to do with the owners, or just a decision that if he’s free he rides him- may do all work on him at home etc. Jack Quinlan is at Worcester for Amy and he’s effectively stable jockey there on the jumpers, so looks like Eustace gone for best available! He may well have had the choice to ride Royal Plaza, i don’t know. But, he is on a LTO winner here and you wouldn’t fall off your seat if he won but I think the fav and selection may be a bit better, but we shall see, I may have that wrong. I think if Dickie didn’t have a ride in this Nolan would still be on Pointed And Sharp, esp if he’s here needing the run.

  12. Thanks for that Josh a definitive explanation and I genuinelly didn’t realise it was a race you had a selection in times closing in so a mush mass of the 3 for Fcs + tricast
    Fingers crossed that’s 10 -12- 14 in the 2.50

    1. don’t worry, I won’t think badly of you not taking note of my selections at the moment haha. He ran well, winner stayed on well having looked in trouble momentarily turning for home. Mine led, maybe a bit too gassy, and/or hasn’t put down on ground. May have gone too hard but uneasy in market pre race and annoying when you know what to expect before tape goes up. Another i’ve got wrong, and another who’ll prob win at some point on next 3 runs!
      That Eustace horse still looks in form/can work with that mark, Dickie gave him a lot to do, sat stone cold last, winner always handy enough in 3rd, front two, and front 3, well clear.

    1. well it’s a confidence boost and nothing else. Been abject in truth and still minus on the daily front, but I seem to get myself up for the hardest puzzles of the day! That was a silly price, given all the above, nice when money pours on and they oblige. Hell of a ride, as he threatened to be keen again but took him back and settled behind horses. I was thinking i’d forgotten how to read a horse race. But, been many false dawns on that front so much hard graft ahead.

  13. Get in Josh! You’ve broken the curse, well done. It’s horrible when all the things you normally do when looking at a race fail to bear fruit. Just come out of a short spell like that myself but on the up again now, thanks to you and others on the site. Onwards and upwards!!

    1. cheers… yep, the daily tipping is an area in itself of concern. I’m bullish enough with the big race/festival stuff, and that was a C2 handicap officially, and given no. runners etc was feature race of the day on jumps front, and more like a big race! There are still big issues underlying the daily tipping front- the things i normally do/have been doing, don’t appear to have been working all year! That’s the issue there. All the raw ingredients are there but i’ve gone on no sort of run at all, but i’ll keep chipping away and think I know what I have to do. I did re-read a few of my own ‘betting advice’ articles to re fix the head space, maybe that was a sign it may start clicking again. Unexposed jumps handicappers, with some form already in the book, and ideally in form, hot form, a stats underpinning somewhere, trainer form, doing something different if view is that will improve for it/odds allow, pace/front runners/front 1/4, jockey switch, poss bonus of a class drop. It’s all there, just needs refining for the daily grind. Or maybe i’ll just forever be a big race 12+ runner player, C2+.

        1. haha true! I would prefer it that way round, with the daily stuff to work on rather than those races, albeit everything always needs work. on we go. It’s a horrible place to be when you’re on a run like that, but must kick on.

  14. Well done with today’s tip Monty’s Award,
    got that monkey off your back there Josh, onwards and upwards.

    Paul

    1. thanks Paul, a long way to go, but boy i needed that mentally. It was approaching a -50 jobby on the daily tips front, which mentally is a dark place to come back from anytime soon.

  15. Josh, may be worth bringing it to people’s attention tomorrow that today’s winner was the feature race with bet365 so get a free bet for the same amount in the 2.20 at Southwell tomorrow. Guessing a lot of people don’t scroll this far down (or read any of the cr*p I contribute)

    Good work on the winner

    1. Well i did assume I was probably the only one still backing them haha. I didn’t know, so will highlight tomorrow. good spot. I think the comments/scrolling through is a ritual for most and prob get the most attention!

  16. W1 jumps doing well last 5 days.
    1/1 1p +3
    1/1 1p +2.5
    1/2 1p +5
    1/1 1p +1.75
    1/2 1p +1.5
    Total of 13.75 points
    Danny

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