Members Daily Post: 23/10/18 (complete)

Tip x1, Section 1 (comp) , test zone , TTP Jumps 2018/19 final stats pack.

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack

2.Any Tips/Notes (Daily Tips/Festival Tips/other thoughts)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack

FLAT

Yarmouth

2.00 – Ample Plenty (2YO) 7/1 

2.30 – Persuer (2YO) 14/1 

3.30 – Bartholemew J (micro class) w2 12/1 

4.30- 

Chilton Foliat (all hncps) 8/1 

Bubbly (all hncps) H3 8/1 

5.00 – 

Ocean Temptress (3yo+ hncps, + m age) 20/1 

Plucky Dip (3yo+ hncps) H3 G3 6/1 S5

 

JUMPS

Exeter

2.20- Still Believing (all hncps) w1 H1 I3 G3 7/4 S4 

3.20 – 

Sin Sin (hncp hurdle) 14/1 S2 

Dream Free (m dist) H1 G3 9/1 S1 (IF 11.00+ BFSP) (if you follow jumps S1 remember to set minimum price at a time that suits you, so that bet only matched at the off if 11.00+ BFSP) 

 

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KEY

H1/H3= HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)

G1/G3 = Geegeez GoldSpeed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated

I1/I3 =  Inform Racing Speed Ratings – Top Rated or Top 3

14,30 = Geegeez Goldtrainer form’ indicators14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr3010+ runs last 30 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr

ES –‘Elite Squad’ qualifiers:  Flat : HER Jumps 2017/18HERE>>>

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S1-S6 : S = ‘Strategy’ and refers to the ‘advised strategies’ in the link below. S1 = ‘Strategy 1’. Added on morning of racing along with the price. w1won last start.   w2won two starts ago (tracking as of 15th Feb 2018)

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‘Flat Strategies/results‘: Flat 2017 Read HERE>>>(updated to end Sept 2018)

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2.Any Tips/Notes (Daily Tips/Festival Tips/other thoughts)

Daily Tips(2017 Sept-Dec: 31/176, +110.75) (2018: 27/302,95p, -13.6) (1 point win /1 pt EW bets) Festival Tips (2018: +156)

 

Daily Tips

4.30 Yarm – Maazel – 1 point win – 14/1 (gen) UP 16/1. uneasy in the market gave the signal there. Slow away, rushed up, lit up, too keen, found nothing for pressure. rubbish. Typical for me to put him up on one of his worst runs for the yard. Back to the drawing board again.

that’s all for today, 08.53, write up…

This one is handicapped to hack up at this level when/if he puts it all together. And there are reasons to believe today may be the day, and at 14s I’ll pay to find out. Last October, on his final run for Varian he finished a 1/4 length 2nd in a C5 at Kempton, off 74. He had his first run for Julia Feilden in Jan 2018 and she’s got his mark down to 58 (55 with Shelly’s claim) and it’s not exactly like he’s been running badly -ignoring his last run on soft, he’d finished within 5L of the winners in C4s and C5s. That’s a fair beating on the flat but they haven’t been out the back of the telly/never sighted jobs. At Southwell 6 starts back he stayed on strongly over 7f in a C5, beaten 1 1/4 L off 69. He ran well in a Chelmsford C4 over a trip that seems too short now, before a break and returning over CD in a C5 – he was keen/fresh that day and the market suggested he may have needed it also, but he travelled well for a long way. As he did on his next two starts, a Brighton C4 and back over CD – on rain softened ground in a C5. He was beaten 2 1/2 L there, failing to pick up in the ground I think/tiring late. This is fast enough today for the time of year and his record and his action suggests he wants it good or faster. The handicapper has dropped him 10lb in 4 runs and he’s been running well. The common theme/the ‘way in’ was his ‘hot form’ – pretty much all of his recent runs, at a higher level, have produced numerous winners since, both those that finished in front of him and behind him, and he’s been in and around horses in their 70s a few times. This is his first run in a C6 handicap on decent ground, his first being LTO in the slop at Windsor when never sighted. Shelly returns as do the blinkers, which seemed to work to an extent two starts back and I expect him to race more prominently here, tracking the pace. (Ubla should give him a good toe into this,and Tellovoi if going forward again) This is only his 12th turf handicap and connections will find the key at some point. It could be he’s just recalcitrant now, and he will travel into it looking like the winner and find little – that’s always a risk at this level but 14s allows me to take a chance I think, as I want to see him run in these conditions from this lowly mark.

Of the rest…well it’s a weak enough contest and i’m sure a few of these want some cut in the ground, having looked through every runner. A few are on career high marks/on marks they’ve yet to win from, and some are not the most consistent these days.

Bubbly looks of some minor interest for the section 1 stats and after 2 non runners is actually now top rated on HRB. There are some strong trainer stats supporting her case, inc his track record and when Stevie D is riding, and for those having their second start in a handicap. But, she’s yet to win and this is her first run on turf. Having watched her last run back she also looks very small to my eye. It’s always hard on tv but this could be plenty of actual weight for her and being buffeted around up this straight 7f will be a new experience. She gets a 1st time hood and is down into a C6 handicap for the first time though. Maybe I have her wrong but was happy to leave, tipping wise, but she could go well.

I expect the selection to tank through this and then it will be a case of what happens in the final furlong or so. Hopefully he just bounds away from them. I think his price is an overreaction to his last run, as if he arrived here on the back of the two runs before that, he surely would have been put in at 8s<. We shall see what the market does.

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3.Micro System Test Zone

Flat 

R Fell

5.10 Newc – Cross Swords 11/1

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

34 Responses

  1. Colins Bets

    After today’s winner,have passed the 100 point mark for the year so far.

    Bookmakers SP from 1st Jan 2018 to 22nd Oct + 109.16 points.

    October so far Bookmakers SP + 14.375
    BOG + 25.333

  2. No joy yesterday with -8 point loss (inc e/w) and -1pt for the win only bet…overall loss of -9 pts so normal service resumes after two good days! In looking at the system and in putting up selections I have kept strictly to the criteria in order to limit selections, especially if backing each way…I have excluded those horses that are best handicapped but did not have the best par speed figure…two horses that were excluded in the 17.10 Windsor were Tobacco Road and Party Royal. Tobacco road was 26 lbs below last win and Party Royal was 23 lbs below last win…the former had a par speed figure of 74 and Party Royal a figure of 75…hence the exclusion….well we know what happened there!!!….. Given these horses ran well, similar profiles may be worth including under the heading Of Interest… with the best well handicapped horse taking priority over par speed figure. As before, going, class, draw etc., have been excluded in criteria for making selections so will see how this goes. The downside is the large number of selections there will be, so apologies for that but hopefully food for thought and a least people get a list of well handicapped horses that may or may not run well. First off, Qualifiers for tomorrow:
    14.50. Exeter. Aristocracy
    16.00. Yarm. Lunar Deity
    16.30. Yarm. Tellovoi
    16.40. Newc. Dolphin Village
    17.00. Yarm. Plucky Dip
    17.15. Gow. Dinkum Diamond
    19.40. Kemp. Equally Fast
    20.40. Kemp. Ready
    21.10. Kemp. Hilborough.

    Of Interest.
    15.20. Exeter. Ladies Dancing/Thundering Home
    16.10. Newc. Falcon’s Fire/Life Knowledge
    16.30. Yarm. Soaring Spirits
    20.10. Kemp. Kasbah/Related
    20.40. Kemp. Ready/Miss Blondell/Vincent’s Forever
    Hope the above is useful…gd lck if playing.

  3. Going through a bad run this month boys. Really poor. Questioning the way I’m even looking at horses now. Feel like my head has gone. Any advice?

    1. Step away. Take a break. Defuzz.
      Don’t think of it as “but what if I miss a good winner?”
      Recharge.
      Accept the losses and recalibrate.
      Don’t chase and don’t beat yourself up.
      Let your subconscious work on the why it’s pear shaped but don’t consciously pick up the form books to rectify.
      Let the fog slowly lift and after a period of reflection dip your toe back in.
      Give it 7/10/14 days but please do step away to give you that buffer zone to rationalise the errors you’ve been making. Because errors will be there.
      Best of Luck.

    2. I would suggest sticking to a specific type of race, as an example, handicap hurdles with 10 runners plus, backing a horse who goes well on the ground and is 7/1 plus and back each way. A simpler example would be Karl Burke runners on the all weather or Hugo Palmer runners at Newcastle. You can choose yourself what approach you take. I would continue backing them. Reduce stakes rather than paper trade as you need to keep it real.

    3. No sure i’m the best person for advice given my form – if you feel like your heads gone/drained etc, then taking a complete break from analysis and even betting for a few days/a week, can work wonders. It can be intense enough if looking every day etc and if you’re not enjoying it that affects your approach. I’ve felt like that before and a break has done me good, that isn’t my excuse at the moment and i’m feeling fine- but flailing around trying to make it work. the main response has to be to work harder and I don’t know if i’ve been a bit lazy on the analysis front but i’m trying to be more focused etc. We shall see. If you’ve a set approach that’s been working, then it could just be bad luck/the betting gods. It’s a tough game at the best of times, but a break and renewed focus/being more methodical , may help. October is also a funny time of year and even more so this year given it’s so dry, and jumps wise, i’m sure plenty of yards are behind, certainly with galloping on grass etc.

  4. Nothing so far from Kempton tonight but still a couple more to come.

    Newcastle and Kempton on Tuesday. Qualifiers:
    Newcastle
    2.10 Kenny The Captain 8/1
    4.40 Coral Queen 9/2 & Aelius 9/1
    5.10 Swansway 5/1 & Hussar Ballad 11/1

    Kempton
    6.40 Coachella 10/3
    7.40 Equally Fast 4/1 & Very Honest 16/1

    All 1pt win and a few possible rev forecasts.

    Good Luck

    1. Ah! I had these 3 on my long list but didn’t make the final cut. Hope I haven’t cocked this one up!! Well done if they win.

  5. 3 at Yarmouth today but with reduced stakes.
    3-30. Esprit De Baileys 7-1 1/2 pt ew, Rossa Ryan takes 5lb off which should help , 112 last 3 starts on turf including a cd win on good back in july.
    4-30. Herringswell 16-1 1/2 pt ew, 3lb higher than when winning over cd back in july but worth the risk at the price , had a short list of 4 but she looks the best value.
    5-00. Whitecrest 8-1 1/2 pt ew, looked hard at Plucky Dip but eventually came down on the side of the veteran Whitecrest hasn’t won since july but looked to be coming back to form when a pretty good 3/16 lto.

  6. RECENT TIPS
    Daily
    N 2.10 – Kenny The Captain on 4th run @ 15/2
    …………Primos Comet on 1st run @ 10
    N 4.10 – Highwayman on 2nd run @ 14
    N 5.10 – Cadeaux Magnifique on 5th run @ 14
    N 5.45 – Picketts Charge on 2nd run @ 13/2
    K 8.40 – Vincents Forever on 5th run @ 11
    Festival
    E 4.20 – Sternrubin on 2nd run NB as odds on and won’t be counted in stats
    N 3.10 – Eastern Impact on 2nd run @ 10
    N 3.40 – Concierge on 4th run @ 9

    Some more quids back yesterday
    GL
    Mike

    1. A nice 16/1 winner yesterday Mike, thanks. I must admit I’m only following 1st to 3rd time out. Too many bets to follow all of them, particularly at weekends. Although I did miss a fairly big priced winner recently. Seems to have picked up in the last few days after a slow period.

      1. Hi Ken, they do have the odd extended barren time and then claw there way back into profit. I had a separate bank for 1-3 runs @ 1pt with 1/2 pt on 4+ but am happy now to do them all @ 1pt with one bank. Time will tell if that’s stupidity but I’m playing with the bookies money now. My main issue is deciding when to STOP. At the moment I’m betting up to 10th but the stats tell me 8 should be the cut-off point. Still not enough data to make a reasoned argument for any.
        The festival ones are lagging still but have had some decent odds in recently so hoping a good run is approaching from them.

        1. I am tracking 1st and 2nd run and it did take a dip but has come back a bit but still down since I started. I do not think that there is a stand out way to profit from these but you have to try different approaches to find out.

          1. You may be correct long term Martin and they have taken a bit of a hit over the last couple of months although teh figures over the last year would suggest there is profit to be had. It’s maximising the potential that needs more data for analysis. What has surprised me is how some turf flat tips are romping in at double figure odds on the AW and could be a profitable angle on it’s own but it is only a small sample.

          2. Yes, the only thing systems need is data to feed on. I like at least a years data but when you come up with a new angle you can only back-fill or be patient.

          3. Well I don’t think we can call it a system! Given that it entirely rests on the approach that I take when first tipping them, in terms of providing any foundation logic for why they ‘may’ win on subsequent starts, having not done so when I tip them up!
            If the selection has a ‘hot form’ element, or is a prominent racer (if they keep front running, should go one day), or trainer is red hot (and horse comes out quick) all wrapped up in either being unexposed (more to come one day) and/or well handicapped/mark falling, it makes sense that some of them should got on to win one day, and clearly there was some logic for them being selected first up -, although given my form much work there.
            Likewise with the Festival tips… they may include all aspects of the above, but some will be picked on basis of stats/trends for that specific race, and/or my general assessment that they may improve for these festival conditions- ie, a big field and a proper gallop to aim at – that rings true more so for hncp hurdlers, and thus if they run in a similar race soon enough at another Festival/big race, they may go in. And usually those picks would focus on decent connections/trainers who know what they are doing, esp Cheltenham. Or of course they subsequently drop into a lesser race- if I thought they may be good enough for a C2/G3 16+ runner race, they may race in easier ones on next few starts if not firing when/how I expected them to.
            So, there is logic why over time enough would win, whether that’s enough for long term profits, who knows, or whether the very big swings are desirable etc.

          4. Whatever it is Josh, they keep on coming. Concierge goes in at 10/1 for me. After I read your comments Mike, I decided to do them all. Thanks.

          5. No, I just follow Mike’s advice. He produced a breakdown of each no. ie 1st TO, 2nd, 3rd, etc which showed profit through to 10th TO but I found the no of bets a bit too much. I took a bit more confidence from Mike’s comments this morning and went with all today’s selections.

  7. Had high hopes for Zzoro after he was well backed yesterday but he faded on the home straight.

    Chris M Selections
    Gowran Park:
    16:15 – Elm Grove (20/1 gen)
    May be a slight punt here but he is back down to 79 which he won off back in July over the same distance and going. Colin Keane is booked for today which to me is a big plus as he is in form in the last 14 days and has a pretty good strike rate at this course. The market will probably guide this one but for me at 20’s he is worth a punt.

    Good luck with any bets today 🙂

      1. Francis not taken you long to doubt the legend then Ha Ha
        Many potential bets today possibly ten but to many negatives on nine of them,one or two may win,but i remember the ones who lose and got it right.
        Mercers,won over CD now bottom weight with a good 5lb claimer on board decent draw for Kempton,the write up on its last run over CD will put a fair amount of punters off,was this a run to get the horse fit for today after a lay off before that race,who knows,will find out later.

        1. Haha not at all Colin, I would certainly never question your logic or selections.

          As we know, sometimes connections decide today is not the day and early exchange activity was suggesting that might be the case.

          Now the money has come perhaps it was just attempts to try and increase the price with the bookies before they got their big money down or just someone that made a big mistake laying. Reading morning markets is becoming increasingly difficult, that’s for sure.

  8. Qualifiers re ‘Trainers iwth a 50% strike rate in handicaps in the past 14 days with at least 5 runners in that period’:
    3.10 Nc Royal Brave & Hart Stopper
    4.00 Yar Lunar Deity
    5.00 Yar Jan’s Joy
    8.10 KP Human Nature
    8.40 KP Running Cloud

    No ‘Irish’ qualifiers that I can see today.

    Good luck.

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