Members Daily Post: 22/10/18 (complete)

Tip x1, Section 1 (comp), test zone + Ponte ‘through the card’

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack

2.Any Tips/Notes (Daily Tips/Festival Tips/other thoughts)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack

FLAT

Windsor

1.40 – Spin Top (micro dist) 14 14/1 UP

3.10 – 

Cuban Heel (m TJC) I3 4/1 UP

Optimum Time (m age) w2 H3 10/1 UP

Ace Ventura (m runs) 7/2 UP

3.40 – Statuario (m age) 22/1 3rd 

4.10 – Caiya (m age) 22/ 1 UP

4.40- Hedging (m age) I1 7/1 S6 UP

 

Pontefract

3.00 – 

Dance King (3yo+ hncp, + m dist/going/class move) ES+ H1 I3 8/1 S2 S3A# S6 4th 12/1

Ghayyar (3yo+ hncp + m dist/going/age) G1 40/1 S6 UP

Dark Devil (m class) 11/1 UP

5.00 – Dew Pond (3yo+ hncp + m TJC/going) ES+ I3 22/1 S3A UP

5.30 – 

Afandem (3yo+, + m going) ES+ I3 16/1 S3A UP

Stewardess (m class/class move) 7/1 UP

 

JUMPS

Plumpton

2.50- 

Mr Mulliner (all hncps) ES+ H3 I1 5/1 S3A# UP

King Cnut (m TJC) ES+ H1 I3 G3 Evens S3A# S4 WON 5/4 

4.20 – 

Royal Hall (hncp h) w2 w1 H3 I3 10/3 WON 6/1 

Bugsie Malone (hncp h, + m TJC) w1 ES+ H3 I3 G3 7/2 S3A# S4 UP

Coeur Tantre (m age) G1 13/2 S1 PU

Ding Ding (m 90 days) 10/1 S2 UP

5.20 – Mount Vesuvius (all hncps) ES+ G1 7/1 S3A  S1 WON 9/1 (11.5 BFSP, S1 qual)

 

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KEY

H1/H3= HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)

G1/G3 = Geegeez GoldSpeed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated

I1/I3 =  Inform Racing Speed Ratings – Top Rated or Top 3

14,30 = Geegeez Goldtrainer form’ indicators14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr3010+ runs last 30 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr

ES –‘Elite Squad’ qualifiers:  Flat : HER Jumps 2017/18HERE>>>

ES +Elite Squad ‘Plus’ +   (rationale/ angles in link above)

S1-S6 : S = ‘Strategy’ and refers to the ‘advised strategies’ in the link below. S1 = ‘Strategy 1’. Added on morning of racing along with the price. w1won last start.   w2won two starts ago (tracking as of 15th Feb 2018)

The Strategies: Where should you start? Some ideas HERE>>>

‘Flat Strategies/results‘: Flat 2017 Read HERE>>>(updated to end 15th July)

‘Jumps Strategies/results’: Jumps 2017/18 Read HERE>>>(updated to end 15th July)

Research Articles: (TTP reports/Test Zone/Monthly Articles/Big Meetings Notes) READ HERE>>>

VIDEOS: Members Repository: HERE>>> . All Public (non members only) Videos HERE>>>

IMPORTANT:Welcome Info  HERE>>> (please read) (inc must watch videos :)) 

Contact: email:  – info@racingtoprofit.co.uk  … or failing that… racingtoprofit@gmail.com 

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2.Any Tips/Notes (Daily Tips/Festival Tips/other thoughts)

Daily Tips(2017 Sept-Dec: 31/176, +110.75) (2018: 27/301,95p, -12.6) (1 point win /1 pt EW bets) Festival Tips (2018: +156)

Daily Tips

5.20 Plump – Chasing Headlights –  1 point win – 12/1 (gen) UP 10/1, ran well to a point and looked like winner turning for home, a 11.5/1 BFSP winner for S1 to ensure not a total disaster.

that’s all for today, 08.49, write up…

Chasing Headlights – the market may guide with this one but the early signs are positive. The 16s disappeared quickly enough as did 14s but in my judgement 12s is still decent enough in the context of this race and the ‘could be anything’ profile of the horse. On paper he’s the most intriguing in this. Firstly it’s a shocker of a race. The fav got stuffed 67L at Worcester and I can’t blame a summer C4 for the defeat, now back into a C5 but if he repeated the Fontwell runs he’d be thereabouts and improve on his trainer’s 0/34,3p stats at the track in the last 5 years. The horse is only 1/34 in handicaps, and that says it all about the quality of this race. The Mullins horse hasn’t got within 15L of anything as yet, but is only 5 and there were more signs of life LTO, but 3s seems short enough. The rest have even more searching questions. Mount Vesuvius could be interesting but he is 10 and arrives here out of form. If he got back to his best he’d go close but his price didn’t feel overly generous and I wasn’t sure why he should suddenly bounce back. Vaughan’s horse needs the visor to work miracles and has stamina to prove, Middleton’s makes handicap debut having done little on his three starts to date, but I suppose his first run in a handicap is interesting enough. Elusive Cowboy looks up against it. So, that leaves one left…

The Dunn micro below was the ‘way in’ and he actually hits both my Dunn angles which I combine. One of them looks at her NH handicappers that have 1-3 runs in the last 90 days, and 6-8 runs in national hunt race type. That seems to be the ideal range for her runners where she’s had long enough to work them out (and their marks have probably dropped in the meantime) before striking. Those sent off 25/1 or shorter SP… well since the start of 2015 they are 13/41,23p, +109 BFSP. 1/1 this year. Those without a career win are 5/20,10p, +54.

In her training career to date, she’s 16/88,10p +34 in class 5 handicap hurdles with those sent off 14/1 or shorter SP. 5/25,10p +30 with those aged 6. 5/19,8p +26 when Adam Wedge rides, and 4/16,6p with those that ran in a handicap chase LTO. Trainer/jockey are 2/6,2p with handicappers at the track.

It seems to be this is the first time they’ve had him right, rest pattern/fitness wise. He returned at Wincanton after 178 days, and then Uttoxeter after 143. Then 56, 17 and now 12. This is only his 4th run in a handicap hurdle and his first on proper decent ground. That’s interesting given his sire is 5/17,8p with his jumpers on good to firm. His overall stats are much better on decent ground than in a bog. So, there’s some hope there and his mothers only win in a handicap was on Good. The run at Wincanton was ok, given the ground was described as heavy/tacky/hard work and it was after a break, but he showed up well until 3 out. His run at Uttoxeter was ok also, looking visibly outpaced there over 16f, again on soft after plenty of rain, and after another break. He’s since run twice over fences and hasn’t looked in love with that side of the game, but at least should now be the fittest he’s been in handicap hurdle. This trip, the ground, and race fitness, could see him run his best hurdle race to date. He’s generally jumped and travelled well in those Wincanton/Uttoxeter races. So, he’s unexposed and doing a few things different, having shown some promise. He also gets 1st CP to help him and he shows up well enough on the two speed ratings sets.

Given all of that I thought he was worth chancing at 12s. I don’t think being out the handicap will matter as the hope is that she’s chucked in now, and most of the others may not run to anywhere near their marks, given recent form. Of course he could just be out of form, and no good, a bit like myself at the moment. But there’s method to my madness and hopefully he blows this lot away. He’s raced prominently in his hurdle races before under Wedge (who jumps back on having not ridden the last twice) having not been sighted the last twice over fences. He ticks enough boxes for me here, so fingers crossed.

 

3.Micro System Test Zone

Jumps

A Dunn (25/1< guide)

5.20 Plump – Chasing Headlights 16/1 UP 10/1

Paddy Brennan (14/1< guide)

4.50 Plump – River of Intrigue 2/1 WON 3/1 

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Flat 

R Fell 

3.00 Ponte – Lord of The Rock 16/1 UP

Top of the Class 

5.30 Ponte – Stewardess (16/1< guide) 7/1 UP

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

Pontefract ‘through the card’ 

for Darren, at the races, track side change…

2.00 – Firewater

2.30 – Usain Boat (fav looks strong, no. 1 to beat 2 in fun forecast, won’t pay much mind)

3.00 – Dance King / Framly Garth (Armadndihan interesting, but price going/gone)

3.30 – Manuela De Vega

4.00 – Lord of The Pace EW (market may guide, top 2 look very strong but short)

4.30 – Beer With The Boys (Perfect Myth fun EW 66/1, for change, could grab 3rd, maybe)

5.00 – Royal Flag

5.30 – Pennsylvania Dutch

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

27 Responses

  1. AW Results update
    With 1 win at 6/1 BOG and 1 NR we were breakeven on Friday but a 4pt loss on Saturday. Full results as follows:
    w/c 15 Oct: Staked 38pts, Profit -4.50pts, ROI -11.84%
    Oct to date: Staked 97pts, Profit -0.5pts, ROI -0.52%

    The AW really ramps up this week with meetings every day and two meetings on Tues & Wed. Starting with Kempton on Monday. Qualifiers:
    5.40 Carlovian 4/1
    6.10 Private Rocket 13/2
    8.10 Early Summer 5/1
    8.40 Florencio 12/1 & Desert Frost 7/2
    9.10 Olaudah 7/2

    All 1pt win and I’ll be having a small rev f/c on the 8.40.

    Good Luck

  2. U.S Racing Tip for Sunday evening – Santa Anita race 6, 11.09 UK time, Exultation 1 point each way. Next best Wild Wild Kingdom.

    Good luck.

  3. Only one selection yesterday w/o( SP 6/1) lost = -1pt. Today’s selections below. Caution advised if playing.
    13.40. Win. Perfect Pastime
    15.00. Pont. C Note
    16.20. Win. Exitas
    16.40. Win. Gerry The Glover
    17.40. Kemp Roy’s Legacy.
    Gd Lck.

  4. mondays tips.
    Windsor 1-40. Flowing Clarets 11-1 1pt ew, she finally gets her ground after a number of poor showings, won this last year off a 5lb higher mark.
    Pontefract 3-00.Rayna’s World 33-1 1pt ew, drops back into a class 4 likes a bit of cut in the ground and won in heavy over 1m3f so should be staying on strong.

    1. Bloody hell Martin
      My blood pressure has only just settled down from Sats 16.30 at Ascot. Now a 4 horse photo with a SH and a nse separating the first 3.
      Brilliant work.
      Thanks

    2. Well done Martin, great pick. There was me thinking the yard may have gone a bit cold like me! Appears not, 2/2 on the day already. This new focused approach of yours is doing the business, long may it last. Superb.

    3. 4pts staked, 15.75 pts returned , + 11.75 pts.
      yes Josh i think focused is the right word , as time is limited i’m not rushing looking at every race i’m just focusing on 3 races and looking for any ew value.

  5. RECENT TIPS
    Daily
    P 5.30 – Red Pike on 9th run @ 14
    W 1.40 – John Joiner on 6th run @ 15/2
    W 4.10 – Secret Return on 2nd run @ 14
    W 4.40 – Hedging on 8th run @ 15/2
    P 2.50 – King Cnut on 2nd run @ 6/5
    P 4.20 – Coeur Tantre on 7th run @ 15/2
    K 9.10 – Watch Tan on 4th run @ 11
    Festival
    K 8.40 – Keyser Soze on 3rd run @ 5

    Picked up some more quids yesterday
    GL
    Mike

    1. w/e 21/10 figs

      Daily runners = 35
      Winners = 5 @ bog 7/2, 5, 16, 10, 10/3 @ sp 7/2, 4, 8, 10, 2
      p/l @ bog + 7.88
      p/l @ sp – 2.5
      There were 2 / 1 plcs @ bog 10, 12 @ sp 10

      Festival runners = 19
      Winners = 2 @ bog 7/2, 7/2 @ sp 7/2, 7/2
      p/l @ bog – 10
      p/l @ sp – 10
      There were 2 / 1 plcs @ bog 66, 11 @ sp 33

      3m+ runners = 7
      Winners = 1 @ bog 7, @ sp 7
      p/l @ bog + 1
      p/l @ sp + 1
      there were 0 plcs @ bog @ sp

      PLACES DO NOT INCLUDE WINS
      Mike

  6. COLINS BETS

    Windsor
    1.40 Everkyllachy BOG 5/1
    1.40 Flowing Clarets BOG 12/1
    4.10 Crownthorpe BOG 5/2
    4.40 The Groove BOG 4/1

  7. Chris M Selections
    Pontefract:
    15:00 – Dark Devil (18/1 gen)
    17:30 – Tylery Wonder (20/1 gen)

    Windsor:
    15:40 – Zzoro (8/1 gen)

    The dismal results of last week to follow once I am caught up with the racing from last week. Hoping that break is a catalyst for the rest of the month!

    1. Results:
      Re-Cap w/c 15/10/18:
      15 bets – 1 winner
      S/R: 6.67%
      ROI: -60%
      P/L: -9 pts

      Overall:
      434 bets – 76 winnners and 11 N/R
      S/R: 18.01%
      ROI: +8.86%
      P/L: +37.66 pts

      June: -10.4 pts
      July: +33.68 pts
      August: -0.97 pts
      Sept: P/L+30.25 pts, ROI: 55%, SR: 20% (58 bets, 11 winner, 3 N/R)
      October: -14.9 pts (ongoing)

      What can I say about October…..it’s been a difficult month so far. I am back from my break with a fresh mind and ready to get that figure back in the green or certainly not get any worse before the end of the month.

      1. Stick in there Chris. 37.66pts over 4.5 months is not to be sniffed at. Every system has its peaks and troughs. It’s hard when your having a difficult period but as long as the peaks outweigh the troughs in the long run, it’ll be worthwhile.

        1. Cheers Ken 🙂 I know my method works, the previous results show that just need to ride out this drought. I have an idea as to what is causing the drought but can’t be sure, the change over between flat and NH has always been a sticky point for me. Either smash it or struggle. Think a lot that is to do with how I find a lot of my selections. I find it evens out over the year though.

  8. Qualifiers for ‘Trainers in handicaps with a 50% place strike rate in the past 14 days with at least 5 qualifiers’:
    3.10 Win Cuban Heel and Optimum Time
    3.40 Win Statuario and Ghazan
    4.10 Win Crafty Madam
    4.40 Win Hedging
    5.40 Win Little Miss Lilly

    At the end of week two the system had made a loss of 16.5 points. I am going to run it in its current format until the end of October and see where it is at. I will then consider a tweak or two for November testing.

    No qualifiers re ‘Irish runners, exc Aiden O’Brien in England or Wales’ today. After week two the system is minus 12 points. I do not see this system being profitable but will see where we are at the end of October.

  9. just reading through the big horses in training sales at Newmarket, where there’s 1600 horses for sale , which 99% are running in the uk . I am sure their current trainers, are trying to get a win from them . Just wondering if anybody out there , had researched the win ratio of these horses ?theres one running tonight Hombre Casado ( badly drawn tonight ) for example

    1. Not something i’ve looked at Brian but would be a mammoth task unless some sort of software which I doubt exists for those. Really Super was one such horse and you can find a relative bargain, but on flip side, if it’s a handicapper being sold connections probably don’t want a win if possible, as thats one win new owners would be deprived of. Always a struggle weighing up which ones are gone at the game, which ones just don’t have the ability/mental strength to win, those that may come alive at new surroundings and those still open to progress/key yet to be found. Good fun trying to find the gems though I suspect.
      Josh

  10. Thanks for the through the card post Josh
    A couple of winners and a straight forecast meant i left up on the day.

    My first visit to Ponte and won’t be my last.

    1. No problem. Yep worked out well enough. Would have been icing to get one more/winner of last! Morning prices of winners were fair bit bigger than SP I think , still short but they both got hammered. Still always good to have 2/3 results to cheer. Ponte is a great little track.

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