Members Daily Post: 20/10/18 (ALL tips x4/comp)

write ups…Daily tips x1, Fest tips x3, Section 1 (comp) , test zone

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack

2.Any Tips/Notes (Daily Tips/Festival Tips/other thoughts)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack

FLAT 

Ascot

4.30- 

Flaming Spear (micro class) w2I3 8/1 

Tricorn (m age) 14,30 33/1 

Argentello (m age) w2 w114,30 H1 8/1 S6 

Mitchum Swagger (m runs) 30 12/1 

 

Catterick

3.30 – 

Bengali Boys (all hncps/3yo+)  8/1 

Copper Knight (m TJC) H3 I1 8/1 S2 S6 

4.05 – 

Be Perfect (m TJC/class) 10/1 

Stormin Tom (m class) I3 16/1 

4.40 –

Scofflaw (all hncps) 16/1 

Explain (m TJC/class) w2 I3 16/1 

Parys Mountain (m dist/class) 20/1 

Our Charlie Brown (m dist/class) 11/1 

 

JUMPS

Ffos Las 

1.35 – 

Gold Borne Raine (hncp h) H3 7/4 

Classi Massini (m TJC) ES+ 9/2 S3A 

4.25 – Silver Streak (hncp h + m age/class move) w1ES+H1 G3 5/2 S3A#

4.55 – Dr Robin (m TJC) 30ES+H3 I3 8/1 S3A#S5 (IF 11.00+ BFSP) 

 

Market Rasen

2.50 – Solo Saxophone (all hncps 5 yrs) ES+H3 I3 7/2 S3A# 

4.00 -Catamaran Du Seuil (all hncps 5 yrs) w1 30 ES+H3 7/1 S3A

4.35 – Whispering Affair (nov hncps) 30 5/1 

 

Stratford

None.

 

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KEY

H1/H3= HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)

G1/G3 = Geegeez GoldSpeed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated

I1/I3 =  Inform Racing Speed Ratings – Top Rated or Top 3

14,30 = Geegeez Goldtrainer form’ indicators14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr3010+ runs last 30 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr

ES –‘Elite Squad’ qualifiers:  Flat : HER Jumps 2017/18HERE>>>

ES +Elite Squad ‘Plus’ +   (rationale/ angles in link above)

S1-S6 : S = ‘Strategy’ and refers to the ‘advised strategies’ in the link below. S1 = ‘Strategy 1’. Added on morning of racing along with the price. w1won last start.   w2won two starts ago (tracking as of 15th Feb 2018)

The Strategies: Where should you start? Some ideas HERE>>>

‘Flat Strategies/results‘: Flat 2017 Read HERE>>>(updated to end 15th July)

‘Jumps Strategies/results’: Jumps 2017/18 Read HERE>>>(updated to end 15th July)

Research Articles: (TTP reports/Test Zone/Monthly Articles/Big Meetings Notes) READ HERE>>>

VIDEOS: Members Repository: HERE>>> . All Public (non members only) Videos HERE>>>

IMPORTANT:Welcome Info  HERE>>> (please read) (inc must watch videos :)) 

Contact: email:  – info@racingtoprofit.co.uk  … or failing that… racingtoprofit@gmail.com 

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2.Any Tips/Notes (Daily Tips/Festival Tips/other thoughts)

Daily Tips(2017 Sept-Dec: 31/176, +110.75) (2018: 27/300,95p, -11.6) (1 point win /1 pt EW bets) Festival Tips (2018: +156)

 

Daily Tips

4.55 Ffos Las 

Red Devils Lads – 1 point win – 25/1 (betf365/BV) 22/1 (gen)

 

Festival/Big Race Tips

4.30 Ascot

Humbert – 1 point win – 20/1 (bet365/lad/Wh/Coral) 18/1 (gen)

Hathal – 1 point win– 25/1 (gen)

Aquarium – 1 point win – 50/1 (bet365) 40/1 (gen) (could be BFSP option…) 

(‘shortlist’… three selections + Raising Sand/Circus Couture/Mitchum Swagger/Via Via) 

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Red Devils Lads … well this has been a testing week on all fronts and to jolt myself back into some form i’ve thrown a dart at a chaser who PU on his last two runs, however there is some method to my madness and I think he’s overpriced, if fit. Firstly he should blast out and attempt to make all, as is his want, and he should be the one to catch. Dr Robbin may be up there but it depends on his mood I think, and he was poor when last seen over fences. Next – the horse relishes this track. In 6 visits he’s never finished out of the places, 3/4,4p in handicaps. I found the yard switch interesting – well, it’s a reason for why he may bounce back into form, and there were excuses for his last two runs in hunter chases. Harris is 2/11,3p with stable switchers in the last two years, one of those winning at 20/1. She’s 1/7,3p with handicap chasers 60+ days, and the horse has gone well after a break before. She’s 2/6,3p with her handicap chasers in 2018, 4/19,6p with all her NH handicappers this year, 1/11,4p since start of 2015 with her NH handicappers returning 121-365 days. Paddy The Oscar is probably the stable star and any yard that can keep him sweet/winning at the age of 13/14, knows what they’re doing. I found it interesting that they return with him to his favourite course, on his first run for them. This could be the time to catch him. It was only 5 starts back last November that he won a Grade B hurdle at Navan off 125, from Glenloe who’d go on to place in Cheltenham/Punchy Festival handicaps. IF he repeated that run, back over fences, he’d demolish this lot. Ignoring those two hunter chase runs (ground/track/trip excuses, and this could be a trainer upgrade) this is the easiest handicap chase he’s run in since March 2015 (he’s only run in 8 hncp chases since then) and he followed that win up with a C3 victory off 132. It could be he’s just gone at the game but given all of the above, I wouldn’t be shocked if he made all here, and at 25s I was happy to throw a dart to find out. Hopefully he bounces out and gets in a rhythm. This isn’t a great race and they all have some sort of question to answer.

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Ascot…

Humbert – well this isn’t a race for the faint-hearted but I couldn’t resist a go at three biggies. This one runs for the red hot Palmer yard, he loves the mud, and he usually puts his head down and battles. He has some decent form to his name, races prominently, (there aren’t many/any out and out front runners in this, but not doubt they will go a pace, it may hold up or you need to come from further back, hard to tell) has won fresh and this looks to have been the plan. He may well be too keen after this break but at his odds I thought worth chancing as he could relish this test, and aged 4, there should be more to come still.

Hathal – a bit more of a poke but Spencer is on and he’s the best jockey over this CD in racing- 11/51,23p, +115 in straight mile handicaps in the last decade, 7/23,8p since the start of 2015. He’s also 3/6 for the trainer at the track. Osborne is in great form himself and I just thought this one looked of some interest, given this is only his second ever handicap, and he’s got some decent group/listed form. It could be his mark is too high but it’s a bit of an unknown at this level. The weight again may be too much in this slop but that’s more educated guessing and in that scenario you want a big price. The horse’s best runs have been in soft or worse, he’s lightly raced for his age and this is only the third run for the yard, having taken a step forward when last seen. He also stays a bit further. He just looked an interesting outsider.

Aquarium – well clearly a flyer and he may finish nearer last than first but i’ve tipped a Johnston/Ascot handicap winner on here before at 50s>33s and that always sticks in my head. They do pop up every now and then. Like many from this yard he’s had a busy campaign but he’s been better than ever the last twice and seems to relish soft. He can race a bit keen so this drop back in trip/faster pace, may help him. The fact he stays further may be no bad thing and Franny may not have him too far off the speed. He arrives in form and just looks tough, like so many of Johnston’s. It could be he blows out, or just isn’t good enough, but he seems progressive and deserves to take his chance.

Of the rest…clearly it’s likely I haven’t mentioned the winner and you can make a case for plenty. Raising Sand has an obvious chance and i’m not sure 5lb would have stopped him LTO but he may need to step forward again, and in a race like this I can’t be having 10s<. This is the hottest race Argentello has faced  and has to prove himself in soft+, and is up 6lb from that last win. He may do it again but 8s seems short enough. He’s not exactly a proven mud lover. Safe Voyage has a break to overcome and stamina to prove, so again that makes single figures short to my eyes. Kynren has had enough goes for me, he should be thereabouts but always seems to find one or two too good, but maybe this is his day. Flaming Spear can be keen enough so 8f on this ground poses a question for him, but he has a touch of class.

Via Via… I tipped him LTO at Newmarket where he ran a cracker at 33s in 3rd. Were that GS he may have gone closer as he does seem best with cut, I think. I deliberated for an age at 12s and some money has come. In the end he still has to prove he stays, and he’s yet to win in soft+, despite some good efforts. I just talked myself out of him but he arrives in form, as does his yard, and they’ve booked Moore, who is 4/8,6p on Tate handicappers. He was the most interesting in the 12s>14s range for me, but i’ve dodged him, and I will see if I regret it. (got a horrible feeling I might!)

Mitchum Swagger was of some interest but has only run twice this year which makes me think there’s been an issue and he was poor enough LTO, but he may have needed it/this is the plan. Others in here have better recent handicapping form, but he’s run well at the track/in soft/big field handicaps before, and the yard are going well enough. Circus Couture interested me to a point, but only because of that decent 3rd over CD in a good race. Soft is a bit of an unknown and he was awful LTO. I wouldn’t fall off my seat if he got into the top 5 though at 80s.

Again, knowing my luck I still haven’t mentioned the winner but I wont’ go through them all. I could make some sort of case for three at big odds, and have stuck with them. Via Via will be the annoying one if he scoots home and he has a 7lb swing with Argentello on that Newmarket run. Anyway, my money is down, fingers crossed.

 

3.Micro System Test Zone

Jumps

Autumn Trainers

E Lavelle 

4.35 MR – High Noon 7/1

NTD (22/1<) 

4.00 MR – Ballybolley 5/1

3.00 Strat  – Ginge De Sophia 16/1

4.10 Strat – One Forty Seven 11/8

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Tom Lacey

3.55 FL – Jester Jet 7/1

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Flat 

R Fell 

2.55 Catt – Glen Moss 7/1

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

19 Responses

  1. A nice winner in the first with Amazing Michelle drifting to 6/1. Thought Mr. Strutter was going to hang on but just nabbed in the last 100yds. Still a few to come. We’re off to Wolves on Saturday. Qualifiers:
    6.15 Roys Dream 14/1
    8.15 Cat Royale 9/2
    8.45 Lord Murphy 5/1
    9.15 Eva Docc 12/1

    All 1pt win.

    Good Luck

  2. a quick run through the Ascot card just a few fun bets, any tips for saturday will be posted later.
    1-25. Thomas Hobson 9-1
    2-00. Tasleet 7-1
    2-40. God Given 22-1
    3-15. Aljazzi 80-1, Century Dream 25-1
    3-50. Cracksman 6-5
    4-30. kynren 10-1

  3. Well, five selections yesterday…2 w/o and 3e/w….8 bets in all….6 losing bets = -6pts….one winning selection in Confessional in 15.05 Haydock @20/1BOG (returned SP18/1 and BSP @ 26.4) 1/5 odds for a place =+ 24 pts…total profit + 18pts….nice return and makes up for previous losses and gives a bit of confidence about the system…Todays qualifiers below….cautioned required:
    13.35. Ffos Las. Way Of The World
    16.40. Catt. Magic City
    15.55. Ffos Las. Red Devils Lad
    20.15. Wolv. Udogo
    21.15. Wolv. Les Gar Gan.
    Gd lck.

  4. 2 for today both a bit speculative,
    Catterick 2-55. Vallarta 9-1 1pt ew, not a good run lto but i was on @16-1 when he won 3 starts ago and he is a CD winner what made my mind up is the lack of quality opposition and i think has every chance off bottom weight.
    Market Rasen 2-50. Sweet Holly 14-1 1pt ew, she was well beaten by Card Game lto but if back to anything like her form when rattling up a hat trick last season will be difficult to beat.

  5. COLINS BETS
    Catterick
    2.55 Economic Crisis BOG 25/1
    3.30 Captain Colby BOG 5/1
    4.05 Stormin Tom BOG 20/1
    4.40 Wellan BOG 10/1
    4.40 Explain BOG 14/1
    Ascot
    4.30 Argentello BOG 8/1
    Wolverhampton
    8.45 Lord Murphy BOG 7/2
    9.15 Summer Angel BOG 18/1
    9.15 Safrani BOG 9/4

  6. Ascot
    2:00 Tasleet 9/1 e/w
    Mark Howard reported in one of his updates that they had tried Tasleet with blinkers at home with some success and they would be fitting them for one race only with cut. Today would appear to be the day and was 2nd last year.

    4:30 Hathal 25/1 e/w with some going 6 places
    Jamie Osbournes videos on the LTA site are quite amusing and this morning he is rightly bullish about the chances of the fav Raising Sand who is a solid cl2 performer. Sadly there is no video for his other runner Hathal who is a G3 winner and has run well at a higher level. Is 2/2 on soft, jock/trainer are 3/7 @ Ascot and this is his first run in cl2 since chasing home a G1 winner as a 3yr old. Looks great value.

    Chris R.

  7. RECENT TIPS
    Daily
    C 2.55 – Vallarta on 2nd run @ 9
    F 3.20 – Candy Burg on 1st run @ 10/3
    S 3.00 – Neetside on 3rd run @ 15/2
    W 6.15 – Haylah on 3rd run @ 6
    Festival
    A 4.30 – Escobar on 5th run @ 66
    …………Via Via on 1st run @ 11
    …………Tricorn on 1st and 3rd run @ 33
    …………Kynren on 4th run @ 11
    F 3.55- Prime Venture on 2nd run @ 15/2
    GL

    A few quid back yesterday.
    Hopefully I’ll get back to a proper sleep tonight. I’ve been plagued with night cramps last few days and last night brought me near to tears. Got some quinine from doc’s which should sort it. She did say tonic water worked also but wouldn’t give me a prescription for the gin the spoilsport.
    Mike

    1. Try some Magnesium Citrate Mike, it’s a muscle relaxant among other things. Get it from a health food shop (I own one – hence my suggestion).
      Steve

      1. Statins
        When i was 60 receptionist said that Doctor wanted to put me on Statins,no explanation of the reason why,anyway Doctor rang me in the evening and said if i did not wish to go on them,then he would review in 12 months that was four years ago has of yet had no review.
        Four years ago the Doctors were on £55 bonus for each patient they put on Statins,do not know if this had a bearing when i spoke to the Doctor!!!!,as of today do not know if they still receive a bonus but do not be afraid to question them.
        I sold dental products and pharmaceutical products for 30 years,so i know what they are like.

      2. Yep, after a stent fitted. Never had a problem when just taking prasugel but told they can no longer dispense it. Cost? So now taking 4 different tabs instead of one, go figure.

  8. Today I like:

    2.00 Ascot Harry Angel at 6/1. If he can find his form the price is massive?
    2.40 Ascot God Given at 25/1. Looks value at this end of season event.
    3.15 Ascot Roaring Lion at 9/4. Drops down to a mile but can outclass these and increase his stud value.
    3.50 Ascot Monarchs Glen at 14/1. Looks value at the price and can improve further.
    4.30 Sharja Bridge at 12/1. May be a group horse in a handicap?

    Good luck.

  9. Still Trying to tip a Winner on here.
    E/W Lucky 15.
    1.40 Market Rasen, L’Chamise 15/2, Trainer states this was never a bumper horse yet ran well behind Posh Trish, may need the run.
    2.50 Market Rasen, Card Game, 40/1, this has got to be overpriced, has won twice in this grade, I will take the chance.
    3.55 Ffos Las Jesters Jet, 8/1, Very Good hurdler who won a grade 1 at Aintree, Good Chance if she takes to Chasing.
    4.00 Market Rasen, Ballybolley, 11/2, Won this last year, Twister in good form.has won after a break before.
    Good luck today everyone.

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