Free Daily Post: 20/10/18 (complete)

Below are my members’ big race tips for the 4.30 at Ascot, an easy handicap to solve! Some caution as i’m on one of my worst runs of form for quite some time. Since tipping Snazzy Jazzy at Ayr I appear to have forgotten how to analyse a horse race. Truly woeful on the daily tipping front, but the big race/Festival tips have done well all year, so i’m less concerned about those long term. Let’s crack on…

 

Festival/Big Race Tips

4.30 Ascot

Humbert – 1 point win – 20/1 (bet365/lad/Wh/Coral) 18/1 (gen)

Hathal – 1 point win– 25/1 (gen)

Aquarium – 1 point win – 50/1 (gen) (could be BFSP option…) 

 

(‘shortlist’… three selections + Raising Sand/Circus Couture/Mitchum Swagger/Via Via) 

Humbert – well this isn’t a race for the faint-hearted but I couldn’t resist a go at three biggies. This one runs for the red hot Palmer yard, he loves the mud, and he usually puts his head down and battles. He has some decent form to his name, races prominently, (there aren’t many/any out and out front runners in this, but not doubt they will go a pace, it may hold up or you need to come from further back, hard to tell) has won fresh and this looks to have been the plan. He may well be too keen after this break but at his odds I thought worth chancing as he could relish this test, and aged 4, there should be more to come still.

Hathal – a bit more of a poke but Spencer is on and he’s the best jockey over this CD in racing- 11/51,23p, +115 in straight mile handicaps in the last decade, 7/23,8p since the start of 2015. He’s also 3/6 for the trainer at the track. Osborne is in great form himself and I just thought this one looked of some interest, given this is only his second ever handicap, and he’s got some decent group/listed form. It could be his mark is too high but it’s a bit of an unknown at this level. The weight again may be too much in this slop but that’s more educated guessing and in that scenario you want a big price. The horse’s best runs have been in soft or worse, he’s lightly raced for his age and this is only the third run for the yard, having taken a step forward when last seen. He also stays a bit further. He just looked an interesting outsider.

Aquarium – well clearly a flyer and he may finish nearer last than first but i’ve tipped a Johnston/Ascot handicap winner on here before at 50s>33s and that always sticks in my head. They do pop up every now and then. Like many from this yard he’s had a busy campaign but he’s been better than ever the last twice and seems to relish soft. He can race a bit keen so this drop back in trip/faster pace, may help him. The fact he stays further may be no bad thing and Franny may not have him too far off the speed. He arrives in form and just looks tough, like so many of Johnston’s. It could be he blows out, or just isn’t good enough, but he seems progressive and deserves to take his chance.

Of the rest…clearly it’s likely I haven’t mentioned the winner and you can make a case for plenty. Raising Sand has an obvious chance and i’m not sure 5lb would have stopped him LTO but he may need to step forward again, and in a race like this I can’t be having 10s<. This is the hottest race Argentello has faced  and has to prove himself in soft+, and is up 6lb from that last win. He may do it again but 8s seems short enough. He’s not exactly a proven mud lover. Safe Voyage has a break to overcome and stamina to prove, so again that makes single figures short to my eyes. Kynren has had enough goes for me, he should be thereabouts but always seems to find one or two too good, but maybe this is his day. Flaming Spear can be keen enough so 8f on this ground poses a question for him, but he has a touch of class.

Via Via… I tipped him LTO at Newmarket where he ran a cracker at 33s in 3rd. Were that GS he may have gone closer as he does seem best with cut, I think. I deliberated for an age at 12s and some money has come. In the end he still has to prove he stays, and he’s yet to win in soft+, despite some good efforts. I just talked myself out of him but he arrives in form, as does his yard, and they’ve booked Moore, who is 4/8,6p on Tate handicappers. He was the most interesting in the 12s>14s range for me, but i’ve dodged him, and I will see if I regret it. (got a horrible feeling I might!)

Mitchum Swagger was of some interest but has only run twice this year which makes me think there’s been an issue and he was poor enough LTO, but he may have needed it/this is the plan. Others in here have better recent handicapping form, but he’s run well at the track/in soft/big field handicaps before, and the yard are going well enough. Circus Couture interested me to a point, but only because of that decent 3rd over CD in a good race. Soft is a bit of an unknown and he was awful LTO. I wouldn’t fall off my seat if he got into the top 5 though at 80s.

Again, knowing my luck I still haven’t mentioned the winner but I wont’ go through them all. I could make some sort of case for three at big odds, and have stuck with them. Via Via will be the annoying one if he scoots home and he has a 7lb swing with Argentello on that Newmarket run. Anyway, my money is down, fingers crossed.

Best of luck with whatever you fancy.

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A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

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  • -1 yesterday after the nr
    F 1.35 – Way of the World @ 7/2
    F 2.10 – Gonnabegood @ 11/2
    F 3.55 – No Comment @ 9/2
    F 4.25 – Ch’ tibello @ 8
    S 3.00 – Neetside @ 15/2

    Titus 20/10/18 10:54 AM Reply


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