Members Daily Post: 19/10/18 (Tipsx5/comp)

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack

2.Any Tips/Notes (Daily Tips/Festival Tips/other thoughts)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack

FLAT 

Haydock

3.05 – 

Dragon’s Tail (all hncps/micro TJC) 14 ES+ I1 G1 20/1 S1 S3A# S6 UP

Cold Stare (m age) w2 H3 8/1 UP

3.35 – 

Alemaratalyoum (all hncps) w2 H3 I3 6/1 WON 6/1 

Vive La Difference (m dist) G1 20/1 S6 UP

Storm Ahead (m dist) I1 16/1 S6 UP

5.50 – River Icon (all hncps) H1 11/2 UP

 

Redcar

None. 

 

JUMPS

Fakenham

2.35 – 

Master Of Finance (all hncps) w2 ES+ H3 G3 8/1 S3A# S1(IF 11.00+ BFSP) UP

Miles To Milan (hncp h) w1 30 H1 I1 9/4 

Todd (hncp h) w2 30  10/1 S2 

 

Wincanton

2.55 – Exxaro (hncp c) 14,30 ES+ I3 10/1 S2 S3A S5 UP

5.05 – Cahill (m TJC) 14/1 S2 

 

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KEY

H1/H3= HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)

G1/G3 = Geegeez GoldSpeed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated

I1/I3 =  Inform Racing Speed Ratings – Top Rated or Top 3

14,30 = Geegeez Goldtrainer form’ indicators14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr3010+ runs last 30 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr

ES –‘Elite Squad’ qualifiers:  Flat : HER Jumps 2017/18HERE>>>

ES +Elite Squad ‘Plus’ +   (rationale/ angles in link above)

S1-S6 : S = ‘Strategy’ and refers to the ‘advised strategies’ in the link below. S1 = ‘Strategy 1’. Added on morning of racing along with the price. w1won last start.   w2won two starts ago (tracking as of 15th Feb 2018)

The Strategies: Where should you start? Some ideas HERE>>>

‘Flat Strategies/results‘: Flat 2017 Read HERE>>>(updated to end 15th July)

‘Jumps Strategies/results’: Jumps 2017/18 Read HERE>>>(updated to end 15th July)

Research Articles: (TTP reports/Test Zone/Monthly Articles/Big Meetings Notes) READ HERE>>>

VIDEOS: Members Repository: HERE>>> . All Public (non members only) Videos HERE>>>

IMPORTANT:Welcome Info  HERE>>> (please read) (inc must watch videos :)) 

Contact: email:  – info@racingtoprofit.co.uk  … or failing that… racingtoprofit@gmail.com 

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2.Any Tips/Notes (Daily Tips/Festival Tips/other thoughts)

Daily Tips(2017 Sept-Dec: 31/176, +110.75) (2018: 27/300,95p, -11.6) (1 point win /1 pt EW bets) Festival Tips (2018: +156)

Daily Tips

2.55 Winc – Sporting Boy – 1 point win – 10/1 (skyb/Betf/PP) 9/1 (gen)Non runner

3.05 Hayd – Mobsta – 1 point win – 6/1 (gen) UP

3.35 Hayd – Kings Pavillion – 1 point win – 11/1 (WH/BF/PP) 10/1 (gen) UP

5.15 Hayd – Izzer – 1 point win – 8/1 (gen) (now 7s, Bet3/5/SB, 13/2 gen) UP

5.50 Hayd- Arthur McBride – 1 point win – 20/1 (bet365/Lad/BF/PP) 18/1 (gen) UP

That’s the lot for today, 08.59, write ups on the way…

Sporting Boy – once more unto the breach dear friends. I tipped this one LTO and I won’t burden him with the added curse of putting him in the free post given its a 3m+ hncp chase, but I thought i’d give him one more go in what are ideal conditions. There’s no excuse today and with any luck he can build on that ok run LTO, where he was bang there turning for home over 26f. He’s the only horse in the race with a win on good to firm, only one of two proven in the class (the rest have had a few goes, the Happy Chappy is the other, his trainer 0/30,4p 60+ days in last couple of years, albeit he’s run ok after a break but is usually held up), the only one with a course win (2, although over hurdles) and I think he’s the pace angle. He should try and make all and if he runs his race, on this ground, could be hard to catch. He bolted up in similar conditions last October at Market Rasen and is now below his last winning mark. The trainer’s horses are going well enough, 3/15,6p in the last 30 days. I’d have preferred a change of jockey I think given he’s struggled a bit over fences, but he’s ridden him twice to victory over the larger obstacles and has ridden a couple of winners since riding him last time, so hopefully his confidence is better, after a bit of a torrid time. The Gifford horse is a danger but steps up in class, has been whacked 12lb and has stamina to prove. I can take him on at his price and if he beats me so be it. There’s also a Nicholls 6 year old to fear, albeit the ground is a question for him and a stats qual in the Tizzard horse, but he looks out of sorts – although often when I take on a section 1 qual, esp in a 3m chase, it ends in tears! Hopefully not today. Anyway, he looked a few points too big and can hopefully get us off to a good start and secure a profit for the day.

Mobsta – there’s still some juice in his price and is only one of two heavy ground winners in the race (Tawny Port the other, who I stared at but talked myself out of, I may have 1/4 point just in case at 9s or so) I tipped him two starts back at Hamilton when I expected a deluge that didn’t arrive and the ground was lightening quick, not for him. He’s yet to run a bad race all year when there’s been cut and a repeat of that Ripon run, or even LTO, will put him in the mix here. He has a touch of class about him when getting his conditions and I suspect Franny may race him more prominently than can be the case. He arrives here fresh which is no bad thing at this time of year. They’ve clearly been waiting for some soft ground and he goes well after a break. He should run a massive race here and could be a few points shorter. The fav is a danger as he has youth on his side but this is his first run on soft/heavy, and has that to prove. While his sire relished the mud, that still makes him short at 9/4 and is worth taking on. He could relish it but has it to prove, as do most others in here. Tawny Port has yet to win outside of C4 level, and has just been knocking on the door the last few runs. A repeat of that run two starts back would put him in the mix but he can be slow away/usually held up, and will need a bit of luck. Coming from too far back in Haydock heavy is hard work, but he’s in with a shout.

Kings Pavillion – 11s looks a tad generous to my eyes for this LTO winner and in deep mud he does look more of a C2 animal to my eyes. He ran a cracker over CD last Autumn in a much hotter race, not beaten far and if he repeated that would be the one to beat. He comes here after a gritty win LTO over CD, and this ground should be even more in his favour. He is drawn out wide but likes to get on with it and should be able to get out and across. They have a little while before the bend over this trip and I thought this mark was within range, on soft/heavy, and having form in Haydock Heavy has to be a big plus. He may just keep grinding away when many of these have given up. He looked the over-priced one here to my eyes and the one that sets the benchmark on what they’ve achieved. On races with cut, he’s beaten 7 of these a few times already this season, including four of them LTO. Fastar is a danger as he’d have been closer with a clear run LTO but I don’t think he’d have won, and his more patient style means he will always need some luck. He has a Haydock Heavy win to his name and may improve for conditions, but will have to use up plenty to reel in the selection hopefully, if they ride him as they did when last seen. The Morrison horse is clearly well fancied but has yet to run on soft, let alone heavy, and again much like with the Burke horse, i’ll take him on at the prices. If he relishes it/still has stacks in hand, then so be it.

Izzer – well the money is a positive and i’m not too surprised. 13/2 may be getting on the short side given the questions, but the hope is that these conditions will bring about plenty of improvement and he may have stacks in hand. He’s the only heavy ground winner in the field, having won at Bath earlier in the season,and that was on the back of a debut win in a big field at Doncaster, first time up, in soft. That race has thrown up numerous winners, as have a few of his more recent runs. He’s been highly tried in some hot enough class 2s, and now drops into a C5. This is the easiest race he’s run in by some distance, since those opening two wins, and he’s run ok in a few of them. He runs as if he will relish this 7f and his breeding suggests he should. With the jockey claim he’s now 13lb lower than his opening handicap mark and I expect a big run. He will show himself to be well handicapped at some point and could make up into a decent 3YO when the mud is flying. He raced prominently on his early starts and they tried to race him up there LTO, but the race was too deep/ground too lively I think, but he ran ok. With any luck they will have him in the right spot here, and this will tap into stamina as yet seen, and bring about improvement.  Again he looked to be the one who was a shade overpriced.

Arthur McBride – a bit of a flyer here but 20s is just too big to my eyes. Twister’s red hot form was the way in. There can’t be many hotter trainers at the moment and most are turning up fit on their first run of the season. This will be some slog and having a horse trained by a NH trainer may be no bad thing here. This horse stays 2m well on the flat, stays 2m4f, is a class 2 winner with many credible efforts, and is well handicapped again. This is one of the easier flat races he has contested, class wise at least, and his last two flat runs at C4, over 2m, have resulted in a neck second and a win. He was out of sorts when last seen but since hacking up at Goodwood, in a 2m C2 off 83, in soft last September, he’s been highly tried on the level, and could have just been out of his depth, with one of the runs over too short, the other on firm ground at Ascot. His two flat handicap wins have been in Sept/Oct – 2/8,5p, he’s 1/3,3p in C4 flat handicaps. He also races on the pace/may try and lead, and NTD has booked a top jockey who rides the track very well. It could be this is a spin before going back hurdling but if he’s fit here, he should out-run these odds. He’s gone well after a break and my hope is that he just has too much stamina and grit for these. River Icon may be a danger but has to step up a bit, and prove herself over this far on the flat. Anyway, i’m excited about seeing this one run at this price, and I could do with a biggie going in. I can dream of him being 5l clear entering the final 2f, as nothing will go by him if he is.

 

 

3.Micro System Test Zone

Jumps

Autumn Trainers

NTD (22/1<) 

4.10 Fake – Ballykan 6/4 2nd

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Tom Lacey 

3.25 Winc – Equus Amadeus 11/2 WON 11/2

A Dunn (25/1< guide)

4.30 Winc – Polo The Mumm 20/1 UP

 

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Handicap Chase System Starting Points (10/1< best)

2.55 Winc – Canyouringmeback 7/2

4.30 Winc – Beau Sancy 11/10

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

Some light entertainment, well, it cheered me up, momentarily…

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About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

18 Comments

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  • U.S.Racing Tip Thursday evening – Santa Anita race 5, 11.08 UK time. Beau Square, 1 point each way. If a non runner, Dominating Woman 2 points win.

    Good luck.

    martin colwell 18/10/18 7:31 PM Reply


    • The selection was a loser.

      martin colwell 19/10/18 7:10 AM Reply


  • Nothing so far from Wolves or Chelmsford. Still a few to come. Newcastle on Friday. Qualifiers:
    5.10 Amazing Michelle 5/1
    6.45 Catoca 15/2
    7.15 Silk Mill Blue 11/1 & Mr Strutter 8/1 (10/1 PP/BF)
    7.45 Joyful Star 5/1 & Sumner Beach 6/1
    8.15 Secretinthepark 15/2
    8.45 Another Angel 4/1

    All 1pt win. Also a couple of opportunities for rev f/c if you like to play. A couple of these have come up recently at around 80/1 and 20/1. It helps if I remember to put them on!

    Good Luck

    Ken McKenzie 18/10/18 7:42 PM Reply


    • Not a total disaster tonight but just the one winner and one NR for -1.5pts. Still keeping our heads above water in October. Newcastle seems to be either feast or famine. Lets hope for a big nosh up tomorrow 🙂

      Ken McKenzie 18/10/18 9:14 PM Reply


  • Qualifiers for ~Trainers with a 50% place strike rate in the past 14 days in handicaps with at least 5 runners’.
    2.35 Fak, Canyon City.
    3.25 Win, Cubswin.
    4.20 Red, Young John and Clergyman.

    No Irish system qualifiers.

    Good luck.

    martin colwell 18/10/18 9:47 PM Reply


  • 6 selections yesterday….4 e/w, 1 placed @14/1 1/5th SP odds +2.8 -7.. minus 2pts for 2 w/o bets = overall -6.2pts….selections for today below:
    14.35. Fak. I See You Well
    15.05. Hay. Confessional
    17.05. Winc. Benbecula
    19.00. Dun. Seanie
    19.15. Newc. Secret Asset.

    Caution advised…gd lck

    silver 19/10/18 2:28 AM Reply


  • RT +11.5
    510 Nc Arendelle 7/2
    545 Nc Seductive 5/2
    845Nc Kibaar 12/1
    800 Dun Lost treasure 9/4 & Shumooki 11/2

    kevo19 19/10/18 2:31 AM Reply


  • not to bad a start +1.25 pts so far, 3 today i’ll do write up’s later as i’m pushed for time.
    Redcar 4-20. Desert Dream 8-1
    Haydock 3-05. Mobsta 15-2 >6-1 ( i got the 15-2 last night but now generally 6-1)
    Haydock 3-35. Kings Pavillion 10-1
    all 1pt ew

    martin whittle 19/10/18 5:20 AM Reply


  • RECENT TIPS
    Daily
    H 3.05 – Al Qahwa on 6th run @ 6
    R 4.20 – Admiral Rooke 0n 8th run @ 11
    R 5.25 – Savannah Moon on 4th run @ 9/2
    …………Dutch Artist on 9th run @ 40
    W 3.25 – Equus Aamadeus on 4th run @ 5
    W 5.05 – Silver Sea on 1st run @ 5/2
    N 7.15 – Destination Aim on 2nd run @ 25
    N 7.45 – Wediddodontwe on 2nd run @ 12
    N 8.15 – Boundsy on 7th run @ 11
    N 8.45 – Casterbridge on 2nd run @ 12
    …………Burtonwwod on 3rd run @ 16
    Festival
    H 3.05 – Mobsta on 2nd run @ 6
    3m+
    W 2.55 – Exxaro on 4th run @ 10
    ………….Sporting Boy on 1st run @ 9
    ………….Lithic on 4th run @ 7
    GL

    Titus 19/10/18 8:57 AM Reply


  • COLINS BETS

    Haydock
    3.05 Al Qahwa BOG 6/1
    3.05 Tawny Port BOG 8/1
    3.35 Alemaratalyoum BOG 13/2
    Newcastle
    7.45 Sumner Beach BOG 7/1
    8.45 Another Angel BOG 5/2

    colin leafe 19/10/18 10:05 AM Reply


    • Nice one with Alemar.. Colin. Unfortunately (for me at least) I already had four picks in that race and didn’t back it. Think my four fell out the back of the telly 🙂

      Ken McKenzie 19/10/18 5:26 PM Reply


  • Anyone following the Geegeez Trainer Stat pack?

    I jumped in after reading the pack….very early days but could do with a winner!

    Chris Sengelow 19/10/18 11:07 AM Reply


    • They could well get one or two today Chris, 2 from the A list (Lucy Wadham at Fakenham) and 6 from the B list (Ollie Murphy at Fakenham).
      The one I like at a bit of a price is LW’s Master of Finance in the 2.35 – just hope the jockey remembers how many times he has to go round!

      JohnnyB 19/10/18 11:52 AM Reply


    • It certainly hasn’t started well, but it’s a long season.

      traf69 19/10/18 12:05 PM Reply


    • 5 winners from 26 bets for me at the moment Chris and £66 down on £260 of stakes in October, as you say, very early days currently. Haven’t played in the 340 personally, watch a Murphy 2nd or 3rd string go in now!

      general6969 19/10/18 12:05 PM Reply


      • Are you doing both A and B? I’m doing A only and was expecting more severe results…I haven’t been keeping tabs myself

        Chris Sengelow 19/10/18 3:27 PM Reply


  • I knew my post would work!

    Chris Sengelow 19/10/18 4:51 PM Reply


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