Members Daily Post: 18/10/18 (Tipsx4/comp)

Tips x4 + write ups, Section 1 (comp), test zone

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack

2.Any Tips/Notes (Daily Tips/Festival Tips/other thoughts)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack

FLAT

Brighton

1.30 – Lady Marigold (all hncps 5 yrs, all) ES+ G1 11/1 S3A S6 2nd 12/1 

3.05 – 

Kirkland Forever (all hncps 5 yrs, all) w2 w1 ES+ H1 I3 6/4 S2 S3A# 3rd

Sussex Girl (all hncps) I3 G1 8/1 S2 S6  UP

3.35 – 

Rampant Lion (all hncps 5 yrs) w2 ES+G3 9/1 S3A 2nd 

The Children’sTrust (micro class) G3 9/1 UP

4.05 – Stormingin (m class) H3 I3 13/2 UP

4.40 – Charming Guest (3yo+ hncps) 16/1 UP

5.15 – Social Butterfly (3yo+ hncps) w1 H1 I1  6/1 S1 S6 UP

 

JUMPS

(new stats in use) 

Carlisle

1.40 – 

Night Manager (hncp h) (hncp debut) 12/1 S2 UP

Mac Cennetig (hncp h) 28/1 UP

Wazowski (m runs) H3 I3 9/1  S5 (IF 11.00+ BFSP) 3rd 

2.10 – Fin And Game (nov hncp c) w2 I3 5/2 UP

3.45 – Blakemount (hncp c + m TJC/class move) G1 10/1 S1 S2 UP

4.20 – Le Drapeau (m TJC/class move) G3 14/1 S1 S2 UP

4.55 – Middlebrow (m dist move) 30 H3 I1 G3 2/1 S4 UP

 

Uttoxeter

3.25 – Forth Bridge (nov hncp c) H1 I1 G3 10/1 S1 S2 S4 UP

5.05 – Sounds of Italy (m TJC) ES+ 9/4 S3A WON 9/4>7/4 

 

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KEY

H1/H3= HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)

G1/G3 = Geegeez GoldSpeed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated

I1/I3 =  Inform Racing Speed Ratings – Top Rated or Top 3

14,30 = Geegeez Goldtrainer form’ indicators14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr3010+ runs last 30 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr

ES –‘Elite Squad’ qualifiers:  Flat : HER Jumps 2017/18HERE>>>

ES +Elite Squad ‘Plus’ +   (rationale/ angles in link above)

S1-S6 : S = ‘Strategy’ and refers to the ‘advised strategies’ in the link below. S1 = ‘Strategy 1’. Added on morning of racing along with the price. w1won last start.   w2won two starts ago (tracking as of 15th Feb 2018)

The Strategies: Where should you start? Some ideas HERE>>>

‘Flat Strategies/results‘: Flat 2017 Read HERE>>>(updated to end 15th July)

‘Jumps Strategies/results’: Jumps 2017/18 Read HERE>>>(updated to end 15th July)

Research Articles: (TTP reports/Test Zone/Monthly Articles/Big Meetings Notes) READ HERE>>>

VIDEOS: Members Repository: HERE>>> . All Public (non members only) Videos HERE>>>

IMPORTANT:Welcome Info  HERE>>> (please read) (inc must watch videos :)) 

Contact: email:  – info@racingtoprofit.co.uk  … or failing that… racingtoprofit@gmail.com 

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2.Any Tips/Notes (Daily Tips/Festival Tips/other thoughts)

Daily Tips(2017 Sept-Dec: 31/176, +110.75) (2018: 27/296,95p, -7.6) (1 point win /1 pt EW bets) Festival Tips (2018: +156)

Daily Tips

1.40 Carl – Wazowski – 1 point EW – 8/1 (gen) 3rd 8/1, +1 , decent enough run and thankfully jockey rode out to get 3rd, nearly an agonising 4th! Winner was thrown in on flat mark if staying/handling ground, it can’t be too deep. The 2nd is the one to take from that, Minella Fiveo – pulled like a train to my eyes, somehow stayed on at end – may need further, expect him to close NTO esp if Cook back on top. He is 10 but lightly enough raced and both wins on much deeper ground. 

3.25 Uttox – Forth Bridge – 1 point EW – 10/1 (Lad/WH/Coral) 9/1 (gen) UP -2 4th, I can’t believe he hasn’t placed there, no excuse, he’s clearly not one to trust I don’t think on that evidence. 

4.20 Carl – Le Drapeau – 1 point EW – 16/1 (WH/BV) 14/1 (gen) (1/4,4 places) UP 8/1, ah the market gave hope, the start/run, not so much. Moving on. 

5.05 Uttox – Withoutdefavourite – 1 point EW – 13/2 (betfS/PP) 6/1 (gen) UP 

 

that’s the lot, 09.13, write ups…

 

Wazowski – 8/1 felt a couple of points too big here for one who’s generally consistent. Last year he came 3rd in this race, in what was a deeper contest to my eyes, and that was after 140 odd days off. He rocks up here hard fit after a summer campaign and he’s always been best with some dig in the ground, and he also knows how to get up this hill, having placed at the track twice from three runs, once over CD. 17f around here in soft could be ideal for him and he goes well for this jockey, 1/5,3p in handicaps, inc his only handicap win. The horse is 0/5,4p over this trip, races prominently, and should keep going when many of these may not be. There are a few interesting ones but all have more searching questions to answer to my eyes. I’d be disappointed if he isn’t in there pitching over the last here, and if he isn’t, that may set the tone for my day!

I should mention The Nigh Manager... today i’ve mainly focused on all stats qualifiers on this page, and could make a tipping case for 3 of them.. I looked at this one, and was simply put off by Hammonds 0/32,2p stats in the last 30 days. In that scenario I wanted bigger, and there is a fitness question etc. Hammond is 1/6,3p with handicap hurdlers here after 60+ days, and 1/5 with handicap debutants, at a track he’s increasingly targeted in the last year or so with handicap hurdlers. There is some money around, and he ‘could be anything’, and has a decent conditional on. May be worth a saver, but the trainer form/fitness Q, and fact horse has yet to place/win, were reasons I didn’t tip him.

Forth Bridge – again this price felt a few points too big and again i’d be disappointed were he not thereabouts after the last and i think he’s the one they will all have to catch. He arrives fit and inform, which can’t be said for plenty in here. He should try and lead again and jumps as if he’s better going this way round. He ran well LTO, after a couple of months off, where he looked to be outstayed to my eye, but he could be sharper here. He’s very well handicapped on his hurdles form and it could all click today, for a trainer who has a good record here with his handicap chasers, and those in novice handicaps.

Le Drapeau – probably the most risky of the four, as there’s a chance he needs the run, but at the prices I couldn’t help myself. He’s young and unexposed, especially in handicaps, and there will be more to come at some point. Last November he made his seasonal reappearance here in a 17f novice where he stayed on well, having been outpaced, into 3rd. He was fit enough to run his race that day and I found it interesting that they start him here again. The yard are in decent form, 0/10,5p in the last 14 days, and many have been running well/running on, after a break, suggesting in general Smith has her string fairly well forward. Trainer/jockey are 9/28,14p in all handicaps at the track in recent years, 1/2 in handicap hurdles. He ran a decent 2nd in his first handicap 3 starts back, in a race that has produced a few winners, staying on well there over 21f at Sedgefield. 20f up this hill may be just what he wants at the moment. He’s down in class from his last run, where he was outpaced on ground probably lively enough for him. Cook usually races them up there and that should be the case with this one. If he’s held up out the back i know he’ll be needing the run. I’d like to see some money for him, and will be concerned if he stays around 16s and drifts out. He has a bit to find with those near the top of the weights but plenty of them may need the run also, some aren’t in great form, and lugging 11-11+ around here in soft-ish ground is a hard task for a young horse. This one will prove himself to be well handicapped at some point, hopefully today. If he’s fit enough, I don’t think he’ll be out of the first 4. While he’s the most risky, I think he’s the most interesting of the four.

Withoutdefavourite – I may get what I deserve given this one hasn’t won a race as yet but based on his consistency, fitness, and front running style, there’s a case to be made that he should be favourite here. He will be the one to catch I think and many of those around him in the market haven’t shown a liking for winning that often either. If he runs as he did LTO, again i’d be disappointed/surprised if he wasn’t in the places, and I think he’ll be very close to winning this.  This feels a lot weaker than his last race, where the front three were miles clear, and he stayed on again at the end there. 3m around here could be ideal and he generally jumps very well. He’s 0/5,4p in handicap chases with Johns on and I thought he just looked solid in here. I’ve backed Psychoandy more times than I care to remember and it will be just my luck that she gets her head in front on her 20th start. She’s 5/1, and Sounds of Italy is 11/4, and he’s 0/9 to date,which tells you plenty about the depth of this race. The selection is the one to be on I think, and  a few points too big. If he repeats those last two runs he’s the one to beat.

So, i’ve gone for three who are fit, in form, and consistent. Hopefully that may pay off. All four should be ‘up in the van’ and two should be leading. That’s where I need to be focusing if i’m ever to get myself out of this slumber. Fingers crossed. I didn’t bother looking at Brighton, I think i’ve had enough of C5/6 flat handicaps, but there’s some interesting strategy picks and hopefully a few winners there, and at least one for S6.

 

3.Micro System Test Zone

Jumps

Autumn Trainers

NTD (22/1<) 

3.45 Carl – Tintern Theatre 9/2 UP

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D McCain (14/1< guide)

4.55 Carl- Middlebrow 2/1 UP

R Hobson (33/1< guide)

3.25 Uttox – Lord Du Mesnil 14/1 UP

Paddy Brennan (14/1< guide)

3.25 Uttox – Another Stowaway 13/2 UP

Tom Lacey 

2.45 Carl – En Meme Temps 10/1 UP

Irish Angles

1.35 Tra – Cairnhill 4/1 / Nancu Maher 40/1  (25/1<)

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Flat 

The Doyler

6.15 C – Power of States 8/1 WON 8/1>9/2 

6.45 C – Awe 5/4

8.15 C – Muneyra 6/4

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

40 Responses

    1. Wasn’t looking so good an hour or two ago but a great day in the end. I thought we were on for a 28/1 winner earlier in the day too

      1. Thanks guys. Missed it all, was playing with the grandkids tonight. Hope some of you had the forecast on the 8.15. Paid £23.70 to a £1 stake. I forgot to put them on Doh!! Back shortly with tomorrows qualifiers.

  1. Two winners at Newcastle tonight for 7pts profit to get us back into profit for the month. Wolves and Chelmsford on Thursday. Qualifiers:
    Wolves
    7.00 Mon Beau Visage 5/1
    7.30 Ned Mackay 12/1*
    8.00 False ID 10/1
    8.30 Allux Boy 9/2
    9.00 Raven’s Raft 9/2

    Chelmsford
    5.45 Critical Data 7/1
    7.15 Boy In The Bar 5/1
    7.45 Navajo Squaw 11/2

    All 1pt win

    * Ned Mackay in the 7.30 is up against a 1/5 fav. You may wish to consider EW or not bother at all. For the stats I’ll record it to 1pt win.

    Good Luck

  2. no selections yesterday but a couple i fancy today,
    Carlisle. 1-40 Green Zone 8-1 1pt ew, goes better with a bit of give in the ground and should find conditions perfect, fair effort lto and won nicely at this level before that 6lb higher for that win but should have every chance.
    4-20. Teescomponents lad 12-1 1pt ew , looks to have got in here off a very fair mark, ran very consistently as a novice , in my tracker as one to watch.

    1. looks like i’ve got the afternoon to myself (yippee) so will be tucked up in front of telly with the racing on, not tips but it will be interesting to see how Mister Kit gets on in the 2-20 after 18 months off i’ll probably have a small ew if the price is right.
      in the 3-15 Torrid is out again very quickly after his staying on but remote 3rd to Simply The Betts at Hexham on saturday Easterby has Sean Bowen up so might be worth a nibble @ 16-1.

  3. Not sure if the system of best hdcp and best par speed figure on the Proform section on Betdaq is a system that is going to be one to get involved with given the results yesterday and the day before after a promising first post results analysis….Yesterday -7 pts loss with Pearl Acclaim being a non runner at the last minute in 17.15 @ Notts from 3 e/w and one win only bet. Earl days yet but would urge caution if you play….todays qualifiers as below.
    13.30. B’ton Corporal Maddox
    14.40. Bt’on Shamshon
    17.05. Uttox Alanjou
    20.00. Wolv Dukes Meadow
    20.45. Chelm Foie Gras
    21.00. Wolv Sunglider

    Gd Lck.

  4. Morning,

    Could someone please explain the benefits of BFSP? I know most of the time it is better than SP, but, is it better than early prices? I only ask again because I backed a horse the other day, early price was 12/1 it won, but, the BFSP only paid 10’s, sp fair enough was 8’s. It has often made me curious, should i stick with early prices and maybe take the hit on R4’s or, do i start backing at BFSP?

    1. It’s a good fall back as any degree of success taking early prices soon results in restrictions. Also there are sometimes large disparities, particularly on drifters, between sp and bfsp which help to make up for occasionally missing a better early price. Also less stress and regret about the early prices one misses.
      Hugh

    2. Nick’s points were about 30 lower on bfsp this month than what he took. Most of the stats qualifiers are higher on be so though so perhaps better as a general rule.

    3. Theres no hard and fast rule wether to take it or not, it depends on the market confidence in a selection. Ones with obvious claims will end up about right at BFSP, but those with under the radar angles often get missed, resulting in much bigger prices than you would get early or throughout the day. I had one yesterday that opened 20/1 I backed at 12/1 with a bookie after seeing some support and it drifted out to 26/1 BFSP (16/1 normal SP) then bolted up by 4 lengths. In other cases the BFSP will be lower than open ing but its usually higher than bookies SP, it just depends on the market confidence.

      1. Surely it can’t be long before matchbook run an SP but with 2% commission. If they want people to move across from betfair, that would feel like a no brainer to me…

    4. Hi Stewart. I stopped recording BSP a few months ago as it was miles behind early/BOG results. It just wasn’t worth the effort. Sure when there’s a drifter BSP will beat BOG but over the long term early/BOG will beat BSP. At least that’s my experience over the last year or so.

  5. RECENT TIPS
    Daily
    B 3.05 – Diamond Reflection on 6th run @ 12
    B 5.15 – Watch Tan on 2nd run @ 7
    C 4.20 – Budarri on 6th run @ 25
    U 5.05 – Psychocandy on 6th run @ 5
    W 7.00 – Ginbar on 4th run @ 11/2
    W 8.00 – Totally Magic on 5th run @ 16
    Festival
    C 7.15 – Hyperfocus on 1st run @ 20
    …………Gallipoli on 4th run @ 4
    3m+
    C 3.45 – Tintern Theatre on 3rd run @ 5
    GL

  6. Qualifiers for trainers who have had a 50% place strike rate in Handicaps in the past 14 days’.
    1.30 Br Lady Marigold
    3.05 Br Kirkland Forever
    3.35 Br Zeshov
    6.00 Wol Havana Sunset
    7.00 Wol Two Weeks
    9.00 Wol Verdigris

    Irish runners in England and Wales:
    2.20 Utt Flemen Majic
    5.05 Utt Toosey

    Richard Johnson travel up to Carlisle today. He rides two for Hobbsy, 4.20 Pineapple Rush and 5.30 Cedar Valley. He also rides one for Tim Vaughan, who sends one up from Wales, 3.45 Looksnowtlikebrian. His other ride is in the 2.45 En Meme Temps for Tom Lacey.

    Good luck.

  7. Hi Josh.
    Because of a poor run with your bets,do not change your style to much.
    AW weather yesterday and now 4 bets EW certainly not your style.
    NH soon will be in full swing and the big priced winners will be winning again.
    Cheers
    Colin

  8. Dont get on the site much nowadays so i will apologise if you have covered the change of direction.
    Always thought you were a win backer Josh. Yet today all four selections are each way even on 13/2 and 8/1 shots. Perhaps you are following the messiah triple M (Move The Market Mazur)

    1. Well Roddo the truth is i’m struggling and i’m not 100% sure what the direction is! There are no set rules as such. Outside of my big race/C2/G3 big field/Festival betting, which has always been decent enough, the daily stuff has been shit for an awful long term. Outside of a golden period last Sept/oct, it hasn’t gone anywhere, hovering around 0 forever.
      All the ingredients are there, pace/form/trainer form/hot form/class drop/jockey switch/ratings/stats etc, and my general understanding/knowledge, i’m just struggling to pull it altogether in some sort of consistent way which churns out profits over time, on the daily front. Albeit my profits have always come in spikes, but something needs to change and i’m not quite sure what. All of the decent odds/long term big profit/daily profit ‘tipsters’ i know generally bet EW, and from my view I suppose it isn’t about price as such (which may be an issue!) but more whether that can jolt my mindset into a different place, and thus the results. The daily tips this year are 31% or so win/place, and with an assessment on pace today, and the level of opposition/general consistency of the selections, I felt on those today EW may be the prudent way forward. But if they all come 5th>, i’ll stare out the window some more into the abyss. Maybe that approach won’t suit me, I don’t know. But anyway, we shall see. It’s all a bit dire at the moment, and it’s a long term trend on the daily front, so much pondering to do.
      Josh

        1. I’m not 100% sure in truth. A member is keeping detailed results now but that’s from start of July.
          But, on some rough maths which could be correct, or i’ve missed something!.. But, if assuming say average odds of 8/1, 1/4 odds, it would be another -10 I think..
          +54 points from the 27 winners x +2 (on place part, average 8s, 1/4)
          +134 on the 67 placed horses (place total minus winners).. 67 x +2 on place part of bet , the -67 on the win side already included in figures above. I think that’s correct.
          Then we have the 198 horses not to place, no return, which would be another -198 on all those lost 1 point place bets.
          So, that’s +188, -198, so -10. At a very rough gestimate. I don’t know my average odds at this moment in time, but if that was 10/1, 1/4, then that’s around +36 but of course then i’ve invested double.
          It is very much about if/how such thinking may affect analysis and whether it makes me go for some horses that i’d otherwise ignore, for one reason or another, and whether then I end up selecting more of those that may win at big odds/add to profits in time. I don’t know. I’m paddling around at the moment. Close to clicking, but that’s been the case all year.

      1. I know it’s impossible not to but I would try not to over analyse. If you were looking at a system that had a long-term ROI of say 20% and saw this year’s daily tipping results, you would probably view them as acceptable / normal variance considering the average odds of your horses and particularly in light of the place stats. When the human brain is picking the selections and not a system, we are much quicker to assume there is something ‘wrong’.

        The win vs ew is an interesting one – you can either view your win to place ratio as a sign you should be backing each way or alternatively as a sign you’ve just been a bit unlucky.

        Personally I would be tempted to see how the daily tips get on in the NH season before any major changes in approach but you know your brain better than we do and so if backing each way helps to free your mindset somewhat then could be worth a try.

        1. Yep, I don’t intend to go one way or the other, i am doing it on a horse by horse/race by race basis. I’ve always viewed success as being able to win at the game 1 point win, and that is where i’m comfortable I think, and maybe the staking/mindset linked to it, is actually a distraction.

  9. Though EW v Win will affect Josh’s bottom line, as punters I expect we are all savvy enough, or set in our ways sufficiently, to choose whether to back win or EW.

    1. It all depends on profit growth expectation. Each way is steadier in that returns come more regularly. However if you bet 2 points win instead of 1 each way you will get that bigger return when they win. A fifth of the odds is bot really worth it at less than 10/1 in my mind.
      I bet win singles and doubles and each way accumulator bets, as you can get a tasty return if you get four or five places.

  10. Think I’m with Martin C on This.
    May Split 1 Point Win on Each 2 Horses in Race Rather than EW.
    In Any case So Many Withdrawals and Rule 4s These Days . That What used to look like good bets in 8 ~10 Runner Races No Longer Applies
    That’s the Most Depressing thing at the Moment.
    Something that Certainly needs Closer Scrutiny .
    It’s Happening all to Frequently
    A miracle today only 4 So Far.
    R

  11. Josh, you wrote the bible for picking winners not so long ago.

    Unexposed, trying something different. Try rereading that. KISS.

    I stake one point win on everything now, no matter if it’s one of my systems or what my tipsters say.

    if you can’t show a profit at level stakes, no amount of tweaking will turn things round.

    1. yep, that’s a fact i think. 🙂 The staking approach isn’t a case of me going ‘oh if only I keep the same approach but bet EW, it will all be fine’, which clearly it wont. It’s whether it may positively affect the analysis I think, and try and make me more consistent/keep the head in the right place, but again that could be nonsense, as 1 point win is my happy comfort zone.
      Oh, I read that before bed every night! haha. It’s the application of all that which is the problem, and what i need to rectify, albeit some of those ideas may be more applicable to flat than jumps, maybe. Anyway, work to do. I mean the overall picture is ok for the year, +210 or so inc free post, but the daily approach hasn’t clicked for too long.

    1. thinks it’s fair to say that was in reference to me Martin, but well done. Albeit can’t just back all his rides blind at the track, well, -8 SP, 5 years, so maybe you can on morning odds, he’s now 0/5,1p on hobbs runners here.

      I may pay for an early flight home for him! 🙂

      1. I follow Tim Vaughan when he heads North, so any course above the Midlands. I was scared Johnson may reduce the SP but happy with 12/1. The Hobbs runners that he was there for ran OK I thought without troubling the winners enclosure. It will be interesting to see how Philip Hobbs goes this season? He has younger trainers coming up to cope with and may go the way of David Pipe, who seems to be struggling to keep up with the top trainers.

        1. yep there’s every chance. He’s had a bad virus for an age, which I thought he was coming out of, had a hot spell couple weeks back- but has had lots of old warriors retire in last couple years, and maybe he’s just farmed some weak races with ‘summer’ horses. He’ll still have plenty of ammo, but yep a yard to be weary of. Yea a fantastic ride on his winner, has to be ridden cold it seems, and does clout a fence, but stayed on dourly. Trainer does well at track from few he sends there, so good spot.

          1. Hi Josh, I have been struggling for a while now on the horses front, have recently subscribed to Horseracebase and GeeGeez, have been long term on Inform, so much information to absorb and work very busy at the moment, keeping it simple sometimes works, today for example many horses on GeeGeez shortlist won or placed at good prices and we are always looking for a way in, the one day ratings at horseracebase I’m finding as another way in, it’s all there in front of us, it comes down to how we decipher the information in front of us within the time constraints put upon us.0
            Thank god for the tips I’m getting at the moment on Ice Hockey {paid for} keeping my head above water, just got that feeling that a good win on the horses is just around the corner.
            You Will Turn That Corner Too Soon.

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