Members Daily Post: 17/10/18 (Tipx1/comp)

Tip x1/write up, Section 1 (comp), test zone

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack

2.Any Tips/Notes (Daily Tips/Festival Tips/other thoughts)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack

FLAT

Nottingham

2.30 – Isabella Brant (2YO) 14,30 10/1 UP

4.40 – 

Samovar (all hncps) w2 UP

Moonraker (micro dist) w2 I1 14/1 S6 UP

5.15 – Coiste Bodhar (all hncps/m class) G3 18/1 3rd 

 

Bath

4.30 – Institution (all hncps) 9/1 UP

 

JUMPS

Wetherby 

5.25 – Sakhees City (m TJC) w1 G1 12/1 S1 S2 UP

 

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KEY

H1/H3= HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)

G1/G3 = Geegeez GoldSpeed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated

I1/I3 =  Inform Racing Speed Ratings – Top Rated or Top 3

14,30 = Geegeez Goldtrainer form’ indicators14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr3010+ runs last 30 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr

ES –‘Elite Squad’ qualifiers:  Flat : HER Jumps 2017/18HERE>>>

ES +Elite Squad ‘Plus’ +   (rationale/ angles in link above)

S1-S6 : S = ‘Strategy’ and refers to the ‘advised strategies’ in the link below. S1 = ‘Strategy 1’. Added on morning of racing along with the price. w1won last start.   w2won two starts ago (tracking as of 15th Feb 2018)

The Strategies: Where should you start? Some ideas HERE>>>

‘Flat Strategies/results‘: Flat 2017 Read HERE>>>(updated to end 15th July)

‘Jumps Strategies/results’: Jumps 2017/18 Read HERE>>>(updated to end 15th July)

Research Articles: (TTP reports/Test Zone/Monthly Articles/Big Meetings Notes) READ HERE>>>

VIDEOS: Members Repository: HERE>>> . All Public (non members only) Videos HERE>>>

IMPORTANT:Welcome Info  HERE>>> (please read) (inc must watch videos :)) 

Contact: email:  – info@racingtoprofit.co.uk  … or failing that… racingtoprofit@gmail.com 

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2.Any Tips/Notes (Daily Tips/Festival Tips/other thoughts)

Daily Tips(2017 Sept-Dec: 31/176, +110.75) (2018: 27/292,94p, -2.6) (1 point win /1 pt EW bets) Festival Tips (2018: +156)

Daily Tips

5.10 Newc – Forbidding – 1 point win – 13/2 (gen) UP 3/1, well that was disappointing, well backed, ran like a 50s shot. Thought he’d be more prominent but the winner has come from the clouds so race has set up for a closer. He’s just not run very well, sadly return here wasn’t the key and hasn’t run his race, but that’s the risk at this level, known pre race.  

A rare trip onto the sand but I couldn’t find anything on turf and this one jumped out at me somewhat. If this horse repeats his CD win here a few starts back then he’s the one to beat and should be half this price. He is 1/3 on the AW, that win being here, and being USA bred there’s every chance he prefers the ‘sand’ or at the very least would need fast on turf. Following that win he ran over 14f on GS at Ffos Las, then 16f at Kempton in a C5, which happened too quickly for him, before running at Ponte twice over 17f+ on rain softened turf and at C5. He went well for a long way LTO. He returns to the scene of his only victory and drops back in class. Mullen now knows him and he’s tactically versatile, in a race lacking much pace on paper. I suspect they would prefer him to have cover but they may make all and just wind it up from the front. Unless you have a change of gears, which not many animals have at this level/trip, you won’t want to be too far back here. That win was decent enough also. I think he idled late having watched it back but he kept going – that was the first time he’d hit the front and maybe he didn’t know what to do. The horse who chased him home won a C5 a couple of starts later off 63, and the 4th horse came out and won back over jumps for Olly Murphy. So, he was beating inform horses, ready to win. The rest have too many questions in here for me. Archibelle is proven in conditions but has a break to overcome. I can’t work out why St Andrews is the same price, with an inexperienced pilot on board, the selection thumped him in that CD win, and he’s usually held up. Maybe I have him wrong but for me Forbidding is the one to be on here if he returns to form. It could be he is now just out of form but I think there are valid excuses and i’ll pay at 13/2 to find out, which I think looks generous enough. 

That will be it for today. I’m training it back up to Liverpool having been in Suffolk for a few days. All being well i’ll be back in the flat in good time and you won’t notice any difference, first part of tomorrow’s post should be up by 6pm as usual. 

 

3.Micro System Test Zone

Flat 

R Fell

3,35 N – Lord of the Rock 16/1 

440 N – Hawaam 12/1 

5.45 Newc – Ad Libitum 18/1 

8.15 Newc – Muatadel 10/1 

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Jumps

D McCain (14/1< guide) 

4.55 W – Ink Master11/4 

Autumn Trainers

NTD (22/1<) 

3.15 W – Kapgarry 5/4 

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

32 Responses

  1. U.S.Racing Tip – Thistledown race 8, 10.10 UK time, Hot Market 1 point each way. Next best Tapidor.

    Good luck.

      1. I will record it as a 4/1 winner, which was available, as the price dropped due to non runners to an SP of 10/3. There was 6/1 available early but subject to rule 4.

  2. One winner tonight but not enough to give us a profit. With 1 NR that’s -1pt. Newcastle on Wednesday. Qualifiers:
    5.10 Archibelle 9/1 & Moans Cross 7/1
    5.45 Groveman 8/1
    6.15 Brendan 5/1 & Rockley Point 13/2
    7.45 First Flight 9/1 & Spray The Sea 8/1
    8.15 Testa Rossa 6/1 & Alfred Richardson 6/1

    All 1pt win.

    Sorry about the number of qualifiers. That’s just the way the stats fall. Still working on ways to reduce the no. of bets, particularly at Newcastle and Kempton.

    Good luck

  3. Well that was another disappointing day…..4 selections and one non runner ….perhaps just as well……-8 pts loss…todays qualifiers below:

    16.40. Notts. Moonraker
    16.45. Punch. Fergiethelegend
    17.15. Notts. Pearl Acclaim
    17.45. Newc. Briardale
    20.15. Newc. Testa Rossa

    Good luck if playing

  4. Up to the dizzy heights of RT +12.5 following Tuesday’s winner, minus the 2 losers
    One potential bet tomorrow will be up by 10am, if it drifts above my price threshold. Too short at the moment

  5. Didn’t really have enough time to have a proper look this morning and nothing stood out so as I am off on holiday in about 3 hours I’ll be away until the start of November. We end the month on +76.69 as advised and +45.47 at BFSP to 1pt win bets which I’ve started monitoring this month.

    1. enjoy my friend, yes very well deserved. Copious amounts of sushi and prosecco will be the order of the day no doubt! I’ll endeavour to step up while you’re gone. Have fun.

    2. my bookie said ” no rush can you make it more into january 🙂 !”
      give those grey cells a well earnt rest you “firnominall” man you 🙂 !!
      Well done !
      cheers
      bc

    3. Enjoy Japan Nick.

      ‘Handicap 14 day rule’ qualifiers:

      3.35 Not Petite Jack & Indian Chief
      3.55 Ba Monumental Man
      4.05 Not Arthenia
      4.30 Ba Institution & Zamperini
      4.40 Not Rock Of Estonia
      5.35 Ba Rippling Waters
      5.45 Nc Groveman

      ‘Irish trainer runner in England and Wales’ qualifiers:
      2.55 Ba True Self & Cascabel

      Karl Burke on the all weather has been going well the past six months:
      6.45 Nc High Contrast
      7.15 NC Amelia R.

      Good luck.

  6. Yes, Nick, have a great time, you’ve well deserved it!

    PS I’m a travel agent, so I’ll do you a deal next time 😉

  7. 5.35 Bath 3 Culdrose Bentley, Harry Beckett, R M 10/1
    5.45 Newcastle 6 Cross My Mind (IRE) Kingscote, Richard Beckett, R M 3/1
    2.30 Nottingham 6 Isabella Brant (FR) Donohoe, Stephen Beckett, R M 14/1

    Trainers fillies aged 3yo+ always need close consideration ( R. Kingscote is 3 out of 3 on this trainers fillies this year i think ?)
    worth a look ?
    gl all
    bc

  8. Chris M Selections
    Newcastle:
    17:45 – Groveman (10/1 gen)
    17:45 – Amlad (12/1 gen)

    Nottingham:
    15:35 – Appointed (50/1 gen) ** 0.5pt EW
    16:05 – Fannie by Gaslight (10/1 gen)

    Wetherby:
    15:45 – Rear Admiral (12/1 gen)

    Last selections of the week from me, think this holiday is needed. Tried to pick some big value bets to get the week back into the green. Good luck with any bets today 🙂

  9. Struggling to get up last few days, sorry
    RECENT TIPS
    Daily
    B 2.20 – Sellingallthetime on 7th run @ 18
    B 5.35 – Elation on 1st run @ 10
    N 4.40 – Show Palace on 3rd run @ 6
    W 4.55 – Theflying portrait on 2nd run @ 3
    N 8.15 – Picketts Charge on 1st run @ 4
    Festival
    B 2.55 – Always and Forever on 2nd run @ 13/2
    W 3.45 – Willie Boy on 1st run @ 2
    W 4.55 – Theflyingportrait on 4th and 6th run @ 3
    3m+
    P 4.10 – Outlander on 6th run @ 8
    GL

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