Members Daily Post: 16/10/18 (complete)

Section 1 (comp), test zone, updates

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack

2.Any Tips/Notes (Daily Tips/Festival Tips/other thoughts)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack

FLAT

Leicester

3.05 – 

Masham Star (all hncps 5yrs,3yo+, + micro age) ES+ I3 G3 11/1 S3A#

Hajjam (m age) w1 H3 I3 G1 5/1 S2 S4 

Brian The Snail (m age) 8/1 

5.40 – 

Pioneering (m age) 12/1 

Golconda Prince (m age) I3 G12/1 

 

JUMPS

(new stats being used) 

Huntingdon

3.15 – Cloth Cap (nov hncp c) I3 5/1  S5 (IF 11.00+ BFSP) 

3.45 – 

Aldrin (m TJC, + m runs) w1 H3 I1 G1 9/2 S4  S1+S5 (IF 11.00+ BFSP) 

Jamacho (m class) 11/1 S2 

4.20 – 

Foundation Man (all hncps + m class) ES+  9/1 S3A

Onurbike (all hncps + m class/class move) ES+ I3 22/1 S2A S3A S5 

Whin Park (m class) w2 H3 10/3 

4.50 – Definitly Grey (m class) 12/1 S2 

 

Hereford

None…no stats for this track again this season, just not enough data as yet since reopening. 

 

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KEY

H1/H3= HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)

G1/G3 = Geegeez GoldSpeed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated

I1/I3 =  Inform Racing Speed Ratings – Top Rated or Top 3

14,30 = Geegeez Goldtrainer form’ indicators14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr3010+ runs last 30 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr

ES –‘Elite Squad’ qualifiers:  Flat : HER Jumps 2017/18HERE>>>

ES +Elite Squad ‘Plus’ +   (rationale/ angles in link above)

S1-S6 : S = ‘Strategy’ and refers to the ‘advised strategies’ in the link below. S1 = ‘Strategy 1’. Added on morning of racing along with the price. w1won last start.   w2won two starts ago (tracking as of 15th Feb 2018)

The Strategies: Where should you start? Some ideas HERE>>>

‘Flat Strategies/results‘: Flat 2017 Read HERE>>>(updated to end 15th July)

‘Jumps Strategies/results’: Jumps 2017/18 Read HERE>>>(updated to end 15th July)

Research Articles: (TTP reports/Test Zone/Monthly Articles/Big Meetings Notes) READ HERE>>>

VIDEOS: Members Repository: HERE>>> . All Public (non members only) Videos HERE>>>

IMPORTANT:Welcome Info  HERE>>> (please read) (inc must watch videos :)) 

Contact: email:  – info@racingtoprofit.co.uk  … or failing that… racingtoprofit@gmail.com 

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2.Any Tips/Notes (Daily Tips/Festival Tips/other thoughts)

Daily Tips(2017 Sept-Dec: 31/176, +110.75) (2018: 27/291,94p, -1.6) (1 point win /1 pt EW bets) Festival Tips (2018: +156)

Nothing from me today, i’ve tried to find something but can’t quite be tempted in. Best of luck with any bets. 

 

3.Micro System Test Zone

Jumps

Paddy Brennan (14/1< guide) 

3.15 Hunt – Copper West 2/1 

Jonjo O’Neill (10/1< best) 

5.30 Here – Pottlereaghexpress 3/1 

Autumn Trainers

NTD (22/1<) 

2.10 Hunt – Locker Room Talk 11/1 

2.45 Hunt – Cydercourt 12/1 

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Handicap Chase System Starting Points (10/1< best) 

4.30 Here – On Demand  (late update, 09.17) 

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

Trainer Track Profiles: Jumps 2018/19…

The stats that underpin section 1 for this jumps season/the next year, are a work in progress. I’ll post up the link when complete, which I hope will be come the end of this week. I’m about 2/3rds through. The new stats are in operation. 

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‘Notebook’ horses

I had a look back at Chepstow on Saturday having missed it when live. I thought there were three horses that may be worth keeping an eye on for the future, to track if you so wish. (i’ll try and remember but you know what i’m like! 🙂 ) 

Duc De Beauchene – i’d be interested to hear what some of you think to this run/the ride. JP has sent this one to Pipe and you’d think they may have a plan down the line or in any case Pipe will definitely want to impress as he wouldn’t mind being sent some more in these colours. This one has some very good bumper form when last seen- plenty of subsequent winners from both. He ran in Kalashnikov’s bumper at Wetherby and that race has worked out well enough as did his debut run.  This was his first run in 561 days and i’d love to hear BGs explanation for what he was doing after the second last, approaching the last. There’s a chance he felt he was approaching the flight too fast and wanted to look after him, given his profile, (rather than risking disaster, or he’s lost his bottle) or felt he was starting to flatten. It just looked odd, at the point in the race where you’d usually be looking to drive the horse forward! Well, you would if it was a handicap. Ahem. However, I thought it was a run of promise, having tanked into it 3 out or so. My initial thoughts were that he could have been much closer, but who knows. Given connections, the bumper form, and this effort, I think he’s worth keeping an eye on. Whether handicaps are a plan, who knows, but i’d be surprised if Pipe doesn’t get something out of him in time. 

Grand Sancy – well the previous three winners of this race have gone on to win at Listed or G3 level that same season, and on that basis he may be worth keeping tabs on. He won this well enough and given how he ran/picked up, it’s not hard to think he’d be even better with a strong pace to aim at. He showed some turn of foot and won this comfortably enough. Nicholls had a great weekend and young Harry has started where he left off before his injury. 

Dans Le Vent – this was a jumps S1 qualifier and he ran well enough in 4th here. This turned into a bit of a sprint and he got outpaced early in the straight, but come the line was staying on well to my eye, under tender handling. It was his first run of the season and his first handicap. He finished an 8L 6th in the 2017 Champion Bumper and in April went well for a very long way in the G1 Sefton Novice. I’d like to think he has a decent pot in him at some point, albeit there’s a niggle that he isn’t straightforward, but may just get better as he matures. He was finding for pressure here and they’ve been patient with him. 

 

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Post Comments

Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

25 Responses

  1. Josh, neither runner in 325 qualifies as they did not win LTO.
    In 430 On Demand does qualify according to the criteria after its first chase win.

    1. I just can’t read my HRB base account, those two are for a handicap chase debut system I am tracking/researched ages ago, I saw ‘Handicap Chase’ and assumed, as that’s the same form of words saved for the handicap chase starting points system! I don’t do it manually, didn’t even look at the horses. Wrong system.

      1. Josh,
        On Demand 430 does that qualify according to HRB as I think it is a ‘Starting Points’ bet today?

  2. U.S.Racing Tip Monday evening – Thistledown race 9, 10.40 UK time, Cocktail Party, 1 point each way.

    Good luck.

  3. No joy at Kempton tonight. 3 places but nothing getting their head in front where it matters. -5pts. Back to Kempton on Tuesday. Qualifiers:
    5.45 Assassinate 14/1
    6.15 Shellebeau 5/1 (6/1 now available)
    7.15 Squire 7/2
    8.15 Argentello 4/1
    8.45 Intermodal 4/1 & Howardian Hills 4/1
    9.15 Strategic Heights 25/1 (EW)

    All 1pt win except where noted EW.

    Good Luck

  4. Yesterday, 2 non runners…1 placed @ 14/ SP returned +2.8 pts for the place – 1 for the win = +1.8pts…4 losing bets, 2 e/w = -4 and -2 win only bets (price below 9/1 or 10/1 @5th the odds not value e/w) = -6pts. Loss of -7pts. Total Loss – 5.2pts for the day….so disappointing even when backing at odds as big as 20’s plus, for two of the selections….Hopefully the selections below do better today.
    14.20. Hereford. Daveron.
    16.20. Hunt. That’s The Deal.
    16.50. Hunt. Invicta Lake.
    19.45. Kemp. Embankment.
    21.15. Kemp. Strategic Heights.
    Gd Lck.

    1. Kev well done yesterday,the race with the 4 runners proved the point yesterday with the outsider Alsvinder winning at 10/1.

      1. Alsvinder won well, making all as suggested by Matt in his GGZ Gold webcast on Sunday night. Hopefully some of you saw that.

  5. Mamoo Huntingdon 16:50 1pt e/w 11/1
    Endlessly Leicester 17:10 1pt e/w 10/1
    Two Seas Kempton 17:45 1pt e/w 11/1

  6. RECENT TIPS
    Daily
    L 2.30 – Watch Tan on 2nd run @ 12
    L 5.10 – Know Your Limit on 3rd run @ 10
    H 4.20 – Midnight Gem on 3rd run @ 14
    H 5.30 – Milan of Crystal on 2nd run @ 5
    K 6.15 – Chasing The Rain on 1st run @ 9
    Festival
    L 3.05 – Sea Fox on 1st run @ 18
    K 8.15 – Mountain Rescue on 3rd and 4th run @ 50
    GL
    mike

  7. Chris M Selections
    Leicester:
    15:05 – Hajjam (9/2 gen)
    15:05 – Masham Star (12/1 gen)
    16:40 – Sesame (4/1 gen)
    17:40 – Golconda Prince (12/1 gen)

  8. well i suppose it’s time i crawled out from under my rock and put up some tips that i’ll keep a proper record of, if there’s some logic i’ll put up my thinking but sometimes i just go with my gut so beware.
    Hereford 2-20 . Stonemadforspeed 12-1 1/2 pt ew , drops into a C5 and runs off only 2lb higher than his win over this distance in a c4 around this time last year.
    Hereford 3-55. Dreamsoftheatre 7-1 1/2 pt win, has been in great form recently but has to overcome running off the highest mark he’s won off for three years that said 7-1 looks good value.

  9. Qualifiers for ‘Trainers with runners in handicaps that have had a 50% place strike rate in the past 14 days in handicaps with at least 5 runners in that period’.
    3.45 Hun Third Estate
    4.50 Hun Mamoo
    5.10 Lei Edgar Allen Poe
    8.15 KP Porth Swtan.

    An 8/1 winner form 3 qualifiers yesterday.

    No Irish runners in England or Wales today and so no qualifiers.

    Good luck.

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