Free Daily Post 14/10/18 (Munst Nat TIPSx2)

Munster National Tips

4.45 Limerick

Blast Of Koeman 1 point win – 14/1 (bet365/BV) 11/1 (gen) Fell

Timiyan – 1 point win – 18/1 (bet365/BV) 14/1 (gen) UP

Ah bugger, well it’s always mixed emotions when a stats shortlist horse wins, not tipped. I can just about live with Spider’s Web at 10s, I could make a case in my head for a couple at bigger odds. I clearly got that wrong and those two ran poorly. At the morning odds I talked myself out of him due to falling LTO, the 72 day break, his 0/7,1p record going RH over fences and I thought Mark Walsh may have had the choice, + the stamina Q in context of price. The 2nd did somewhat throw it away. Those ones are more annoying when they are 14s/16s+, which he hit mid morning and maybe if that price when I looked I may have been closer, but who knows. That’s how it’s been going for some time now sadly. 

A ‘national’ to get stuck into today. I’ve stuck with my stats below as a guide for this and these two look the most interesting at the odds.

Blast of Koeman strikes me as having plenty of ability and is only 4lb higher than for a cracking run at Punchestown a few starts back. That may well be some of the best recent big field handicap chase form on offer here. He runs as if he may relish this trip and should enjoy the ground. They put blinkers on him here to help him concentrate/jump better. I assume they may have sharpened him up at home. I never really like restricted vision in that context and hope they don’t bury him too far back. In any case, his odds allowed the chance and that Punchy 2nd was in first time CP. The Galway run was after 102 days and he was on the back foot after an early error, probably over a trip too short. This may have been the plan with a spin over hurdles LTO, when the ground may have been too testing for him and I think he’s better going RH. This is only his 8th chase start and he has plenty of ability, let’s hope he can show it today.

Timiyan… just looked too big to my eyes and it’s always good to have an Elliot inmate onside in a race like this. Whether i’m on the right one, we shall soon find out. This one ran a cracker two starts ago, relishing this sort of distance and making up plenty of ground there, jumping well at speed. He was subsequently DQ after a positive test for something, and returned at Listowel when I’m sure the ground would have been against him, and he made a bad early error which seemed to do for him. They must be confident in his stamina now so I hope they ride him more prominently. The yard is in decent form and the jockey rides the track well, 6/17,8p in the last year, and he’s in form also. I thought he would relish this ground- it’s officially good and they haven’t had much rain by all accounts, which should suit both of these. Anyway, happy to have a couple of darts at these odds, given their place on the stats below and I can make some sort of case.

Black Scorpion is a danger but 9/2 always seems short enough for me in a race like this and he needs to step forward again. It’s All Guesswork felt about right at 8s/not over generous..he’s in form and progressive but took a few goes to win a beginners chase and those races were not the deepest. This is a completely different test but of course there could still be more to come, and he races prominently. I assume the jockey bookings are simply down to weight. I may have something on him, just in case. I didn’t think Full Cry would be good enough, famous last words but he’s a monster price on a stats shortlist, so you never know!

The stats pointers…

10/10 aged 5-8 (9+, 0/50,5p)

10/10 Top 2 at least once last 3 runs

Those two stats leave six… Black Scorpion (9/2) It’s All Guesswork (8/1) Spider Web (10/1) WON 12/1  Blast Of Koeman (12/1) Timiyan (16/1) Full Cry  4th (33/1)

 

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A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

6 Comments

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  • The flat’s still very up and down but +21 pts yesterday for NH @ bog, +12 @ sp. No NH today
    G 3.10 – Two Blondes @ 8
    G 4.55 – Diamond Dougal @ 16
    G 5.30 – Sing Out Loud @ 5

    Titus 14/10/18 8:37 AM Reply


  • here my qualifiers on the basis of trainer in from / jockey in form / month / day / going conditions ………. just testing still … but i will probably stop soon 🙁

    Time Horse Track
    Today 3.25 Secret Investor Chepstow
    Today 3.25 Equus Millar (IRE) Chepstow
    Today 4.00 On Tour (IRE) Chepstow
    Today 4.00 Beat That (IRE) Chepstow
    Today 4.00 Double Ross (IRE) Chepstow
    Today 4.00 Henri Parry Morgan Chepstow
    Today 4.35 Not That Fuisse (FR) Chepstow
    Today 5.10 Art Mauresque (FR) Chepstow
    Today 5.10 Ballyhill (FR) Chepstow
    Today 5.10 Marracudja (FR) Chepstow

    cheers
    and good luck today 🙂
    mr bc

    BRIAN CRICK 14/10/18 11:21 AM Reply


    • I for one have been following you Brian please keep posting

      christopher jones 14/10/18 12:49 PM Reply


      • will do chris .. thanks …. just trying to find interesting different angles .. cheers
        have a great sunday 🙂
        thks
        bc 🙂

        BRIAN CRICK 14/10/18 1:02 PM Reply


        • Hi Brian,

          my main angle in horse racing, excepting following topsters who know what they are doing, is trainer related systems. I post up on the Members blog.
          Two recent ones are ‘Trainers with a 50% place strike rate in the last 14 days with at least 5 runners’ and ‘Irish trained runners in England and Wales exc Aiden O’Brien’. I expect both to be losing systems but you have to test them to be certain.

          One that has gone well in the latter part of 2018 is ‘Karl Burke runners on the all weather’.

          Good luck.

          martin colwell 14/10/18 1:42 PM Reply


          • Hi Martin ,

            Yep i am testing all sorts of systems on hrb and the beauty of it is you can test it over the last 12 months . So i am ditching all the non profit making ones and moving forward with the rest more profitable ones .
            Thanks for the Karl Burke system ( i had already taken that onboard from your members blog – thanks 🙂 )
            Here is one of my favourites for you : R. Becketts 3yo fillies especially fto for the seaon ……………… this last flat season was + 50 pts p/sp and 90 pts on bfsp .
            Nice !

            cheers all the best fellow betting scholar !
            Brian Crick 🙂

            BRIAN 14/10/18 7:57 PM Reply


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