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Members Daily Post: 13/10/18 (complete)

No tips. Section 1 (comp) , test zone, Silver Trophy / Cesarewitch stats

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack

2.Any Tips/Notes (Daily Tips/Festival Tips/other thoughts)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack

FLAT 

York

2.05 – My Lord And Master (all hncps 5 yrs) 14,30 ES+I3 12/1 S3A 

5.35 – Frontispiece (m dist) 30 10/1 

 

Newmarket

None. 

 

JUMPS

(new jumps stats – TTP 2018/19, in use…) 

Hexham

3.25 – 

Classical Milano (hncp c) H1 I3 13/2  S5 (IF 11.00+ BFSP) 

Spinning Scooter (m class) 9/2 

4.35 – Seven Devils (m class) 13/2 

 

Chepstow

4.45 – 

Court Minstrel (hncp h) I3 12/1 S2 S5 

Dans Le Vent (m dist) H3 G3 12/1 S1 S2 

Captain Cattistock (m age) w2 H3 15/2 

5.20 – 

The Young Master (all hncps/90 days)  25/1 S2A 

Rock The Kasbah (m class) 14,30 I3 G3 11/4 

Bigbadjohn (m runs this season/90 days) 14,30 11/1 S2 

5.55 – 

The Wicket Chicken (all hncps) 5/1 

Micras (hncp chase + m TJC) G3 18/1 S1 S2A 

Ballydarsi (hncp chase) 33/1 

 

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KEY

H1/H3= HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)

G1/G3 = Geegeez GoldSpeed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated

I1/I3 =  Inform Racing Speed Ratings – Top Rated or Top 3

14,30 = Geegeez Gold‘trainer form’ indicators. 14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr. 30– 10+ runs last 30 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr

ES –‘Elite Squad’ qualifiers:  Flat : HERE  Jumps 2017/18: HERE>>>

ES +– Elite Squad ‘Plus’ +   (rationale/ angles in link above)

S1-S6 : S = ‘Strategy’ and refers to the ‘advised strategies’ in the link below. S1 = ‘Strategy 1’. Added on morning of racing along with the price. w1– won last start.   w2– won two starts ago (tracking as of 15th Feb 2018)

The Strategies: Where should you start? Some ideas HERE>>>

‘Flat Strategies/results‘: Flat 2017 Read HERE>>>(updated to end 15th July)

‘Jumps Strategies/results’: Jumps 2017/18 Read HERE>>>(updated to end 15th July)

Research Articles: (TTP reports/Test Zone/Monthly Articles/Big Meetings Notes) READ HERE>>>

VIDEOS: Members Repository: HERE>>> . All Public (non members only) Videos HERE>>>

IMPORTANT:Welcome Info  HERE>>> (please read) (inc must watch videos :)) 

Contact: email:  – info@racingtoprofit.co.uk  … or failing that… racingtoprofit@gmail.com 

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2.Any Tips/Notes (Daily Tips/Festival Tips/other thoughts)

Daily Tips(2017 Sept-Dec: 31/176, +110.75) (2018: 27/291,94p, -1.6) (1 point win /1 pt EW bets) Festival Tips (2018: +156)

 

Nothing from me today. 

Chepstow…that looks a tricky card… the track updates suggest the ground is ok, but the weather updates are all over the place. So the going could be good to soft, or proper soft come late in the afternoon. What with winds of 30-40 mph, and with so much educated guessing over fitness for most (esp the Silver Trophy), i’ll sit the card out and watch with interest. Hopefully Dans Le Vent can win for Jumps S1. 

Newmarket… well the two best trainers on earth arguably (AOB/Mullins) are well represented in the Cesarewitch and that isn’t a ace I want to attack with much gusto. One to have a few fun bets on the machine maybe. Southern France could just be very good – if he’s a true group 2 or even group 1 horse, and he stays, then he’ll just outclass these, chew them up and spit them out. But it’s a big ask for a 3YO, albeit i’m not sure there are any in here that could have come 3rd in a classic. This may well have been the plan. The yard are on fire, and so is Mullins. He has three to hit the stats below. Anyway, part of me thinks I’d be surprised if one of those didn’t train the winner, but we shall see. Maybe there will be another 66/1 surprise and it will be interesting if the stats profile holds below. 

Anyway, there’s plenty going on, so best of luck with any bets. Hopefully a few winners from Team RTP today. 

Newmarket was good fun- I appeared to morph into Hugh for the afternoon as I used my ‘paddock eye’ to pick out both winners of the maidens, unraced, at 22s and 4s. Maybe I need to get to the track more often, but both of those were fine specimens, clearly fit, well bred, and both trainers were in decent form. It doesn’t always go like that mind. I’m off to Amy’s owner’s open day soon, and I’ll try and tweet a few pics, for those of you interested in such things. It will be good to see ‘the girls’ and say hello to Kalashnikov. 

 

3.Micro System Test Zone

Jumps

Autumn Trainers

NTD (22/1<)

2.30 Chep – Rocco

R Hobson (33/1< guide)

4.45 Chep – Chic Name

Paddy Brennan (14/1<)

3.35 Chep – Poetic Rhythm

4.45 Chep – Garo De Juilley

5.55 Chep – Troubled Soul

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

Silver Trophy Handicap Hurdle(not overly useful, but some pointers) 

10/139, 33p

9/10 Top 2 at least once last 3 runs. (1/33,4p were not)

7/10 were up 3-4f from last run (7/23 runners, 10p)

  • 2/10 were down 2.5f-5f (2/24, 7p)

7/10 ran over 2m-2m1f LTO (7/22,10p)

6/10 had 1-4 runs this season (6/44, 13p)

6/10 won LTO (6/35,13p, +101 BFSP)

6/10 ridden by claiming jockeys (6/44,10p)

5/10 had 1-2 runs prev 90 days (5/27,10p)

4/10 had 4 or 5 career runs (4/12,4p)

Trainers: E Williams (2/7,3p), P Hobbs (2/15,6p);  x1 – C Roberts/NTD/V Dartnall/DMcCain/D Skelton/D Pipe

A King (0/12,0p) P Nicholls (0/15,4p)

Common traits... I took a look through the last 10 winners… 5 of them had run at the Chelt Festival that year, or at Aintree GN meeting. 4 were making handicap hurdle debut (including both of Hobbs’ winners), those remaining that didn’t tick those boxes either won LTO and/or had a course win to their name. Do with that as you please. 

Those common traits may be a bit tentative, but horses that tick one or more of those boxes…

Louis Vac Pouch/ River Frost/Point of Principle /Whatmore/Chic Name / Dans Le Vent / Court Minstrel 

 

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Cesarewitch 

In short, having had a quick flick through, some stats/profile of interest… Top 6 LTO, ran class 1-3 LTO, 0-3 runs 90 days, 1-7 runs this season, and distance move…Same dist through to Up 2f (or extreme move, up 5-6f).

That profile leaves 9/70, 18p, (from 330 runners total, 40 places, in 10 years). No doubt it won’t hold this year, but if it does….

Cleonte 14s/ Golden Spear 20s/ Coeur De Lion 50s / Stanley 80s / Fun Mc 66s

Update three of Mullins’ battalion also tick these boxes: Low Sun / Limini / Uradel

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

67 Responses

  1. U.S. Racing tip Friday evening – Santa Anita race 6, 11.40 UK time, Princess Leia, some 20/1 about now, 1 point each way. If a non runner then no bet today.

    Reply

    1. The selection finished third with an SP of 18/1 and 20/1 was available and so a decent place return with 8 runners.

      Reply

  2. Wolves still in progress. Nothing so far for me but a couple of winners for Colin and Kev which I had as backups have added to what was already a cracking betting day for me. Cheers guys.

    Chelmsford tomorrow. Qualifiers:
    5.45 Hostess 4/1
    6.45 Billyoakes 9/1 (10/1 PP/BF)
    7.15 Dreamboat Annie 11/2
    7.45 Fleeting Freedom 10/1 (12/1 PP/BF)
    8.15 Molten Lava 5/1
    8.45 Special Mission 9/2

    All 1pt win

    Good Luck

    Reply

  4. I have Southern France ante post at 16/1 for The Ceserewich and the money has come but it looks a race with plenty in with a chance. I also like Low Sun and at a big price Eye Of The Storm at 80/1, who won a group race for Aden O’Brien a while ago.
    I have George Bowen at 20/1 ante post in the 3.15 York, which is still available.
    1 point each way both main selections and 1 point win the other two.

    The ‘Handicaps system with trainers having 50% places in the last 14 days with at least 5 runners, lost 6 points on Friday, with only one winner and no places!
    Saturdays qualifiers are:
    2.05Y Banditry & Pacify
    2.15 H Granard
    3.40 N Stars Over The Sea & Here And Now & Speedo Boy & Blue Rambler
    4.00 H The Hollow Ginge
    5.00Y Baydar & Faithful Mount
    5.20 C Bigbadjohn
    5.35 Y Grand Inquisitor
    6.45 C Turanga Leela
    7.15 C Dreamboat Annie
    9.15 C Lucky Reset

    The ‘System’ ‘Irish runners in England and Wales exc A.O’Brien’ had one winner on Friday. On Saturday there are 8 qualifiers in the Cesarewich, Golden Spear and the 7 Mullins runners.

    Good luck.

    Reply

  5. Five bets yesterday…one NR…1 place @7/1 SP …5 w/o losers …-5pts wo bets….-3.25pts e/w ……so not a good day. Todays qualifiers.
    15.35. Chep. Monbeg Legend
    15.55. Lim. Paddy The Celeb
    16.35. Hex. My Idea
    16.45. Chep. Court Minstrel
    17.05. Lim. An Saighdiur
    17.35. York. Master Carpenter
    17.55 Chep. Still Believing
    1945. Chelm. London

    Some old handicappers represented so if you are playing just be cautious. Good Luck.

    Reply

  6. RT +1.5 Just back in the black with the one winner
    745 Ch Samphire Coast 11/2
    845 ch Special Mission 9/2

    Well done & thanks Nick for Friday’s winner

    Reply

  8. touch of insomnia so i’ve had a a go at the televised races,
    ITV 7.
    Newmarket.
    1-50. Sydney Opera House 15-8 is the class horse 2pt win, Flying Dragon 20-1 is open to improvement small saver just in case.
    2-25. Kadar 4-1 1pt win was impressive on debut and can only get better worth the chance he will improve past the others.
    3-00. Too Darn Hot 4-5 is to short for me and i’ll take a chance with Advertise 10-1 1pt win, another that’s open to improvement.
    3-40. The Cesarewitch, 34 runners and sky and WH paying 8 places, anything could win this and i’ve had a nibble on 2 and will probably back a couple more nearer the off.
    Stars over the Sea 25-1 sky 1/2 pt ew and Eye Of The Storm at 80/1 WH 1/2 pt ew
    York.
    2-05. Mountain Angel 5-1 1pt win looks in great form, Exhort 16-1 1/2 pt ew is the only CDwinner in the line up and should go close.
    2-40. Fuente 12-1 1pt ew, i watched this win at Thirsk only to lose the race in the stewards room, close 3rd to Mill Reef winner Kessaar lto and a line through that form gives him every chance.
    3-15. many in with chances but i’ve plumped for Flying Pursuit 15-2 B365 1pt ew.

    Reply

  9. Nice winner yesterday. Plenty for today so probably going to crash down with a bang:

    My Lord And Master York 14:05 1pt e/w Price available 11/1 (I will record 4 places 1/5 as available with most bookies)
    Cosmic Law York 14:40 1pt e/w Price available 8/1
    Major Jumbo York 15:15 1pt e/w Price available 20/1 (will record to 1/5 5 places)
    Perfection Newmarket 16:50 1pt e/w Price available 15/2 (again take the 4 places as available with just about everyone)
    Traffic Fluide Chepstow 17:20 1pt e/w 14/1

    Reply

    6. No words to describe your tipping Nick. Absolute legend. Do you have time machine where can see into the future? I also have a small Canadian on all your tips. Thanks for all your work.

      Reply

      1. Yesterday I spent a half an hour debating whether to tip Copper. Today once I knew it wasn’t going to be heavy Jumbo I thought was a pretty obvious pick barring the slight concern that Jamie appeared to have deserted him and was amazed he wasn’t well backed.

        Reply

    13. Nick

      What a legend you are, unbelievable picks them mate, thought Traffic was gonna punch that last one there, but still a nice place. Well done and thank you!!

      Steve

      Reply

  10. What time does the FREE Daily Post get normally get created ? 🙁

    good morning btw 🙂 rise and shine 🙂

    thks
    bc

    Reply

      3. I was up at 7! 🙂 Appear to have forgotten to create that holding post, the members content somewhat took priority, albeit being out all day yesterday has messed up the Sat racing routine somewhat. And i’m off to Amy’s at 10.15 so pushed myself a tad.

        Reply

  11. In the absence of my dearly beloved FREE POST Testing Zone … i thought i’d spread some love on here : ) don’t worry I will put the rest of my ramblings later on the freebie 🙂 …………… but :
    NEWMARKET “SEZSIRZARAVITCH” 🙂 HANDICAP RUNNERS WITH POSITIVE VIBES
    Today 3.40 Southern France (IRE) Newmarket (Rowley) (RH) 5.50F
    Today 3.40 Here And Now Newmarket (Rowley) (RH) 23.00
    Today 3.40 Making Miracles Newmarket (Rowley) (RH) 26.00
    Today 3.40 Eye of The Storm (IRE) Newmarket (Rowley) (RH) 67.00

    thks
    bc
    glt 🙂 (always smile:) )

    Reply

  12. RECENT TIPS
    Daily
    N 5.25 – Lucius Tiberius on 1st run @ 12
    Y 3.15 – Al Qawha on 5th run @ 13/2
    Y 5.00 – Dominating on 4th run @ 10
    C 4.45 – Garo de Juilley on 4th run @ 50
    …………Court Minstrel on 2nd run @ 12
    C 5.55 – Rosie McQueen on 4th run @ 4
    H 4.00 – Rivabodiva on 6th run @ 13/2
    C 6.45 – Spirit of Zebedee on 4th run @ 5
    Festival
    N 3.40 – Whiskey Sour on 1st and 3rd and 4th run @ 20
    …………Making Miracles on 1st run @ 33
    …………Meri Devie on 3rd run @ 50
    Y 2.05 – Pacify on 2nd run @ 16
    Y 3.15 – Kimberella on 3rd run @ 20
    …………Teruntum Star on 1st and 2nd run @ 14
    Y 5.00 – Northwest Frontier on 1st run @ 10
    C 3.55 – Spiritofthegames on 1st run @ 5
    F 2.35 – Bargy Lady on 2nd run @ 13/8
    L 3.55 – Mastermind on 3rd run @ 15/2
    3m+
    C 5.20 – Lovely Job on 1st run @ 18
    GL
    Mike

    Reply

  13. Chris M Selections
    Newmarket:
    16:15 – Mr Diamond (14/1 gen, was a non-runner when I placed bet so dropped to 12/1, will track at that price)

    Hexham:
    15:25 – Classical Milano (6/1 gen)

    Chelmsford:
    19:45 – Samphire Coast (11/2 gen)
    20:45 – Exeat (13/2 gen)

    Good luck with any bets today

    Reply

  15. Hello to everyone, new member here 🙂 . Just finished reading through the advised strategies, but can’t really make my mind as to which one to use. In the email i was recommended to start with S2A for the Jumps but when i open the summary page for it , I am then recommended to start with S1 or S4. Anyone that has been following either for some time that can give me some clue as to where to start? I see also lots of members with their own ideas and systems, should i start following someone? Nick seems to be doing good as of late i think? Good job Nick!

    Reply

    1. Hi there…
      I need to re write that welcome email now the seasons have changed over etc, sorry about that.
      Refer to the Key and the strategies ‘where should you start’ link.
      In short…I’d start with flat S6, Jumps S1 and S2A.
      Jumps w1 w2 (section 1 qual won LTO or two starts back) are looking good. And S3A# is doing OK.
      That’s where I’d focus on that front.
      In terms of members comments…well take your time as plenty to get stuck into. Nick sets the bar on the tipping front. Chris/Ken/Colin have been doing well etc.
      In short it’s about being patient, starting small and building up over time.
      Josh

      Reply

  18. Oh I am so chuffed for Jumbo. There arguably hasn’t been a more consistent big field sprinter all season and he deserved to win one of these. I’m amazed that no one was talking about him when he was wearing the first choice colours over Teruntum Star and really surprised how horses drawn 19 and 20 were the top 2 in the market when it was fairly clear watching both yesterday and today that low was the place to be.

    Reply

    2. brilliant nick .. saved my woeful looking day once again … different gravy !!
      well done sir !!
      thks
      bc

      Reply

    3. Backed him last night using geegeez. lots of green with high percentages on instant expert. went in again with your tip. Happy days

      Reply

    5. yankee doodle !! 🙂 .. jimney cricket ……….. i gave it to the bookies with one hand and got it back 4 fold ( literally) with the other .
      thank you nick for sharing your expertise once again !!
      i for one am honestly in awe !!!

      thks
      bc
      always 🙂 ing

      Reply

    6. I was sure I was getting another there. Trust the Young Master to pick up his first win in 2 and a half years!

      Reply

  22. big thank-you to nick.i backed each one separately @ i did a £1e.w. roll-up.anyone know what that will pay?

    Reply

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