1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack
2.Any Tips/Notes (Daily Tips/Festival Tips/other thoughts)
3.Micro System Test Zone
4.Any general messages/updates etc
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1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack
FLAT
Newmarket
4.45 Firebird Song (2YO) 14,30 15/2
York
2.40 –
Breanski (micro age) w2 H3 I3 10/1
Just Hiss (m runs) I3 11/1
Waarif (late update 09.41) (m dist move) I3 14/1
4.25 –
Island of Life (all hncps 5 yrs, all, + m class) 14,30 I3 8/1
Watchable (m dist move) I1 25/1 S6
JUMPS
Newton Abbot
2.50 – Vodka All The Way (hncp h) 14,30 w1 H3 I3 10/3
4.00- Midnight Glory (hncp h) 14,30 7/1
Irish Bonus
3.40 DP – Maighnealta (all hncps) 11/2
5.25 DP – Forrardon Xmoor (m runs) 14,30 10/3
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KEY
H1/H3= HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)
G1/G3 = Geegeez GoldSpeed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated
I1/I3 = Inform Racing Speed Ratings – Top Rated or Top 3
14,30 = Geegeez Gold‘trainer form’ indicators. 14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr. 30– 10+ runs last 30 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr
ES –‘Elite Squad’ qualifiers: Flat : HERE Jumps 2017/18: HERE>>>
ES +– Elite Squad ‘Plus’ + (rationale/ angles in link above)
S1-S6 : S = ‘Strategy’ and refers to the ‘advised strategies’ in the link below. S1 = ‘Strategy 1’. Added on morning of racing along with the price. w1– won last start. w2– won two starts ago (tracking as of 15th Feb 2018)
The Strategies: Where should you start? Some ideas HERE>>>
‘Flat Strategies/results‘: Flat 2017 Read HERE>>>(updated to end 15th July)
‘Jumps Strategies/results’: Jumps 2017/18 Read HERE>>>(updated to end 15th July)
Research Articles: (TTP reports/Test Zone/Monthly Articles/Big Meetings Notes) READ HERE>>>
VIDEOS: Members Repository: HERE>>> . All Public (non members only) Videos HERE>>>
IMPORTANT:Welcome Info HERE>>> (please read) (inc must watch videos :))
Contact: email: – info@racingtoprofit.co.uk … or failing that… racingtoprofit@gmail.com
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2.Any Tips/Notes (Daily Tips/Festival Tips/other thoughts)
Daily Tips(2017 Sept-Dec: 31/176, +110.75) (2018: 27/290,94p, -0.6) (1 point win /1 pt EW bets) Festival Tips (2018: +156)
Daily Tips
4.25 York
Dark Shot – 1 point win – 9/1 (bet365) 8/1 (gen)
that’s all for today,09.25, write up…
I’ll probably get what I deserve for rowing in again with this one but I couldn’t help myself given he hasn’t really run a bad race all year, having been mixing it with much better company and having finished ahead of a few of these numerous times already this season. He drops into a C3 for the first time for Dixon, the level of all his wins, and with the claim he’s now 1lb below his last winning mark. He drops back down to 5f and has first time blinkers… surely they are going for the break fast/go hard/hope to cling on approach, having been a bit more patient with him over 6f. He’d been running as if worth a go over that trip but hasn’t quite convinced, but it could be class has found him out. On his first run of the season/on stable debut, he ran El Astronaute very close over CD, and if he repeated that run I think he wins this. A few starts back at Goodwood he was in and around the right horses, who’ve since won plenty…Baron Bolt won that, and he’d go on to dead heat up at Ayr in the big one. Boy In The Bar would win a C2, Polybius would win his next start and Snazzy Jazzy was just behind him- he’d go on to win the Silver Cup for us at Ayr. So, that’s some decent form. He would have gone very close at Chester in 1st CP if getting a clear run, in another C2 (he may have won), and at the Curragh he went well for a long way, on the wrong part of the track, and that’s a stiff 6f- he didn’t see it out. He won his maiden on Soft, so hopefully any change in the ground isn’t too much of an inconvenience but it’s a question, as it would be for a few in here. It’s good and there is light drizzle at the moment, meant to clear at lunchtime. He should race on the pace. I don’t know if there’s a track bias but there’s pace high, so I won’t use that as an excuse. Anyway, his recent form, the drop in trip, class, blinkers, falling mark, prominent racing position, that CD form from May, have all tempted me in. Dixon is 3/17,6p with 1st blinkers in handicaps since start of 2015, 2/7,3p since start of 2017 and hopefully he can add to those stats.
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I’ll no longer indulge in any running commentary on my awful form, recent days have summed up the whole year to date on the daily tips front. Just woeful and not good enough. I doubt many people are following them or are thinking of jumping off that ship, I wouldn’t blame you. It will turn around and i’ll find the key to more consistent success on that front. The first drive is the fact I like to solve the puzzle, and it drives me mad that i’m not doing that at the moment on a daily basis. Anyway, all of that is for me to ponder and rectify.
I’m now back down south for the weekend. Amy has her owners open day on Sat and i’m off to Newmarket on Friday with some friends. Looks a great card, albeit out of my comfort zone, whatever that is at the moment. 🙂 But, if you have any thoughts, fire away. And if you’re there, do say hello if you see me.
3.Micro System Test Zone
Flat
R Fell
2.40 Y – Dommersen 40/1
5.35 Y – Guardia Svizzera 25/1
Top of The Class
4.45 N – Firebird Song 15/2
5.20 N – Nashirah 9/4
Jumps
Irish Angles
2.30 DP – Liars Dice (25/1< guide) 66/1
4.Any general messages/updates etc
There’s a results update worth a flick through in yesterday’s post that I won’t repeat again, and info on Really Super that I won’t mention again. I think there’s now 1 share left.
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SAT big race trends/pointers.
I’ll focus on the big handicap hurdle from Chepstow and the Cesarewitch. I haven’t got round to the latter yet, but for now…
Silver Trophy Handicap Hurdle(not overly useful, but some pointers)
10/139, 33p
9/10 Top 2 at least once last 3 runs. (1/33,4p were not)
7/10 were up 3-4f from last run (7/23 runners, 10p)
- 2/10 were down 2.5f-5f (2/24, 7p)
7/10 ran over 2m-2m1f LTO (7/22,10p)
6/10 had 1-4 runs this season (6/44, 13p)
6/10 won LTO (6/35,13p, +101 BFSP)
6/10 ridden by claiming jockeys (6/44,10p)
5/10 had 1-2 runs prev 90 days (5/27,10p)
4/10 had 4 or 5 career runs (4/12,4p)
Trainers: E Williams (2/7,3p), P Hobbs (2/15,6p); x1 – C Roberts/NTD/V Dartnall/DMcCain/D Skelton/D Pipe
A King (0/12,0p) P Nicholls (0/15,4p)
Common traits... I took a look through the last 10 winners… 5 of them had run at the Chelt Festival that year, or at Aintree GN meeting. 4 were making handicap hurdle debut (including both of Hobbs’ winners), those remaining that didn’t tick those boxes either won LTO and/or had a course win to their name. Do with that as you please.
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48 Responses
Hi Josh
Should Waarif qualify in the 2.40 as dist move?
mike
Hi Mike, yep on closer look technically he is, thanks.
Keep the faith Josh, your records and loyal band of followers know that a win streak is just around the corner. Quite possibly once the heavens have opened and we have those lovely heavy ground 3 mile chases again!
By the way i am paying my first visit to Fairyhouse this Saturday, If you or any other members have any thoughts on the card or the course generally please do share them.
Cheers, Al
I’m with you there Al, I’m certainly not gonna cry after making 292.6 pt level stakes profit in a year.
I’ll add a bit more now I’ve looked at my figs properly. Out of comfort zone, trying to get a grip on cavalry charges etc and still turned a profit in whilst frying an egg on the pavement.
Mike
Do you think that you may have done even better without spending time frying of eggs?
Hi Martin, it was tongue in cheek after a couple of homemade cocktails involving copious amounts of rum. In case I caused any confusion my comments are aimed at Josh’s tips not myself.haha
No worries mate, I understand. Happy punting.
Hi Josh, as Brian said to me the other day, I feel your pain!
If you want a stats tip for tomorrow ‘s trip to Newmarket, the trainer/ jockey combo for Jack Regan in the 16.10 are a very unusual 50% win 80% place in handicaps over the last year.
Be Lucky and have fun.
Ken, you can blame me for this mini run of the last few days as I’ve just started following.
Thought Final Choice was going to get up which would have sorted the day right out! Keep them coming
Ah, I’d been wondering why haha. Only sorry you joined in at the start of a losing run. Hopefully a couple of winners over the weekend to right the ship.
Copper Knight York Friday 16:25 1pt e/w 14/1
Soldiers Minute York Friday 17:35 1pt e/w 14/1
it was in my long list .. and you gave me the confidence as well .. many thanks for another great find !!
🙂
bc
Started following you today Brian superb, no other words to describe Nick
Thanks Nick. Superb as always
Thanks Nick. The Master does it again.
Nice one maestro. Just sorting you the restaurant voucher.
Do us a favour and cancel your holiday. I cant really afford for you to go missing from here.
Thank you Nick ….great winner
Unbelievable Nick, not sure how you are picking them on such a regular basis but top class. Send me your email Nick please so I can send you a treat. Cheers
Brilliant mate
Two more winners and a place among others for ‘trainers with a 50% place strike rate in handicaps with at least 5 runners in the past 14 days’ on Thursday. A profit or loss update at the end of the week.
Fridays qualifiers:
2.50 NA Wicked Willy
4.00 NA Midnight Glory
4.10 NK Breath Caught & Rock Eagle & Baritone
6.45 Wo Another Angel
7.15 Wo Mapped
8.45 Wol Mirbat & Ensign Ewart & Lucky’s Dream
9.15 Wol Black Truffle
Good luck.
Hey Josh, I’m on a losing run of 38 at the moment and I don’t give a shit!!! beat that!! I’ll end the year with more than I have now. I had 5/10 recently and said to my lad ‘watch me get 40 losers now to even it out!’ 2 more to go and then I’ll get some winners ( I hope ).
Winners proving hard to come by since Monday. Nothing again tonight at Chelmsford but Final Choice came agonisingly close in the last after drifting to 9/1 close to the off. If we keep knocking on the door we’ll break through eventually.
Wolves tomorrow. Qualifiers:
6.45 Broadhaven Honey 9/2 (6/1 available with PP/BF but not BOG for me)
7.15 Intrepidly 12/1
8.45 Tukhoom 6/1
9.15 Athassel 9/2 (5/1 PP)
All 1pt win
Good Luck
Six selections yesterday….1 non runner….5 bets…4 lost 1 winner @7/1 SP….win only returned 7 pts place + 1.75 = 8.75..if backing each way = -8 pts…so e/w = + .75 pts profit…if backing win only +3pts profit.
Fridays selections:
18.45. Wolv. Red Stripes
1930. Dun. Georgian Bay
20.00. Dun. Toreen Legend
20.15. Wolv. War Department
21.15. Wolv. Malaysian Boleh/Athassel are joint top.
Dundalk and Wolverhampton are not my favourite tracks as low grade and unpredictable so will be interesting to see if the system works. Good luck if you are playing.
RT -0.5
645 Wo Broadhaven Honey 4/1
730 Dun Aussie Valentine 4/1
900 Dun Military Hill 11/4
with sky paying 5 places i thought these 3 might be worth a small ew,
York
2-40. Yuften 14-1
4-25. Midnight Malibu 33-1
5-35. Tawny Port 14-1
RECENT TIPS
Daily
N 5.55 – Cosmopolitan Queen on 2nd run @ 50
Y 4.25 – Just Glamorous on 2nd and 3rd run @ 25
………..Dark Shot on 3rd run @ 9
Festival
Y 2.05 – Concierge on 3rd run @ 8
Y 4.25 – Copper Knight on 4th and 5th run @ 14
…………Dark Shot on 5th run @9
Y 5.35 – Tommy G on 2nd run @ 11
N 2.15 – Dolors on 2nd run @ 4
N 3.25 – Flying Tiger on 3rd run @ 9/4
3m+
N 2.50 – Clondaw Cian on 4th run @ 12
GL
Just reading a article , where the writer pointed out the number of Irish horses winning at Ayr and Hamilton, in low grade handicaps . He was making the case , Ireland’s low grade horses are better than our low grade horses . Would we have made money backing each one at 5-1 and under ? I wonder will the same happen , this winter for their national hunt horses ?
was that the Richard Birch article in the Outlook at all? I think Josh did a trial last year on Irish horses over here for the National Hunt although I could be making that up 🙂
Yes , I will ask a friend , who as got some software
I do not necessarily think they are better but are likely more targeted after making the bother to journey over. I am going off memory and have not gone through that data but any profit they are making is minimal. I think a better angle is where they appear at ‘other’ courses such as Wolverhampton and Sedgefield and exclude Ayr and Musselburgh, so lets us say in England and Wales. I cannot see a profit being made except for backing any qualifier over 5/1 as a system? I am sceptical of such a system paying dividends but we shall see?
Good luck
I am also excluding Aiden O’Brien from this ‘system’.
One that was pointed out yesterday on Racing uk was Richard o Brian…Any relation to the o Brian mafia?
He had T for Tango 8s yesterday at Ayr T Hamilton on board.
Over the past 18 months he has a strong s/r over here. I don’t have the software but if some has the time to look up his record. Appreciated.
Mike
FROM ONE BRIAN TO ANOTHER 🙂
R O’BRIEN HANDICAP RACES ONLY IN UK
Bets Wins Win% P/L(SP) Place% Races ROI(SP) P/L(BF) ROI(BF)
ALL 163 25 15.34 14.5 34.36 147 8.9 42.68 26.18
2018 91 14 15.38 6.5 31.87 81 7.14 18.19 19.99
2017 72 11 15.28 8.00 37.50 66 11.11 24.49 34.01
BC 🙂
SORRY BRIAN …oops no capitals sorry josh 🙂 …… copy and paste not exact from “word” to this site 🙁
but if you stretch it out you can decipher it i hope 🙂
looks interesting though ..only handicaps 🙂
cheers
bc 🙂
bally hell man .. my ramblings/findings were for mickey dee ..sorry 🙂 .. i will go back under my shell again now 🙂
gl
bc 🙂
re mr o’brien of the richard j. kind .. it would only appear he has had 2 runners in the uk ?? 1 lost last year and the other won yesterday was it ??
sorry for my ramblings but i am pretty sure that is now correct 🙂
have a great day
gl
bc 🙂
Brian
Thanks for coming back looks like the Racing uk guys were trying to give him more credit than he is due.
Mike
Qualifiers for today:
1.50 NK Yolo Again
3.00 NK Gordon Lord Byron
5.35 YO Tresorier
5.45 WO Billyfairplay
9.15 WO Texas Radio.
For the Irish etc ‘system’ above.
Its not that their low grade horses are better, it’s because the Irish handicappers are more lenient when reviewing horses marks, and so they are lower than their equivalent UK mark , so when they race over here they are ‘well in’ off the Irish mark.
There are some very talented Irish trainers, but its a myth that all their horses are of better quality, if they were racing in the UK then their mark would be more penal, so they get an advantage due to that.
COLINS BETS
4.25 York Holmeswood BOG 4/1
7.15 Wolverhampton Charlie D BOG 5/1
Chris M Selections
Dundalk:
20:00 – Park Row (7/2 gen)
Following a recent email from Ben Aitken on front runners I thought I would put up the following based on pace from atr.
Billy Dillon..4.25Y..50/1
Guarda Svizzara..5.35Y..25/1
Marie’s Benefit..3.25NA..6/4
Salateen..3.00Nm..25/1
Shambolic (could how these perform)..3.35Nm..12/1
Chain of Daisies..5.55Nm..5/4
2 of them are too short. One is worth a win bet and 3 a small ew nibble.
A fun day in front of the telly, golf is off today to windy.
Have fun
Mike
Aye worried your wig might fly away lol 🙂
Two 16/1 shots today, who may go well if finding some form:
4.25 YO Duke Of Firenze and 5.45 WO Mystical Moon, both 1 point each way.
Good luck.
Following on from my post of not giving a shit about getting 38 losers in a row, thanks to Nick and others today I’ve bagged two 14/1 shots and a 4/1 and in a treble. So come on Josh you know as well as anyone else here you will hit some hot form soon because you’ve done it before and will do again even if Dark Shot was a Crap Shot!!! Just don’t fret, it’ll come. Soon. Best of luck to a very top judge called Josh. Me, I’m lucky to have you guys to help me otherwise I’d be a loser, that goes out to all the posters on here as well, fantastic team.
Ha. He was poor. Thankfully Nick saved day on that front and nice 20s from SP2A. I did use my track side paddock eye to pick out 22/1 and 4/1 winners of the two maidens, both unraced. So not all bad haha. Need to get the head in the right spot.
But yep quite a team here so can’t complain.