Members Daily Post: 12/10/18 (Tipx1/complete)

Tip x1, Section 1 (comp), test zone, Sat stats/pointers (part 1)

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack

2.Any Tips/Notes (Daily Tips/Festival Tips/other thoughts)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack

FLAT 

Newmarket 

4.45 Firebird Song (2YO) 14,30 15/2 

 

York

2.40 – 

Breanski (micro age) w2 H3 I3 10/1 

Just Hiss (m runs) I3 11/1 

Waarif (late update 09.41) (m dist move) I3 14/1 

4.25 – 

Island of Life (all hncps 5 yrs, all, + m class) 14,30 I3 8/1 

Watchable (m dist move) I1 25/1 S6 

 

JUMPS

Newton Abbot 

2.50 – Vodka All The Way (hncp h) 14,30 w1 H3 I3 10/3 

4.00- Midnight Glory (hncp h) 14,30 7/1 

 

Irish Bonus 

3.40 DP – Maighnealta (all hncps)  11/2 

5.25 DP – Forrardon Xmoor (m runs) 14,30 10/3 

 

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KEY

H1/H3= HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)

G1/G3 = Geegeez GoldSpeed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated

I1/I3 =  Inform Racing Speed Ratings – Top Rated or Top 3

14,30 = Geegeez Goldtrainer form’ indicators14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr3010+ runs last 30 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr

ES –‘Elite Squad’ qualifiers:  Flat : HER Jumps 2017/18HERE>>>

ES +Elite Squad ‘Plus’ +   (rationale/ angles in link above)

S1-S6 : S = ‘Strategy’ and refers to the ‘advised strategies’ in the link below. S1 = ‘Strategy 1’. Added on morning of racing along with the price. w1won last start.   w2won two starts ago (tracking as of 15th Feb 2018)

The Strategies: Where should you start? Some ideas HERE>>>

‘Flat Strategies/results‘: Flat 2017 Read HERE>>>(updated to end 15th July)

‘Jumps Strategies/results’: Jumps 2017/18 Read HERE>>>(updated to end 15th July)

Research Articles: (TTP reports/Test Zone/Monthly Articles/Big Meetings Notes) READ HERE>>>

VIDEOS: Members Repository: HERE>>> . All Public (non members only) Videos HERE>>>

IMPORTANT:Welcome Info  HERE>>> (please read) (inc must watch videos :)) 

Contact: email:  – info@racingtoprofit.co.uk  … or failing that… racingtoprofit@gmail.com 

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2.Any Tips/Notes (Daily Tips/Festival Tips/other thoughts)

Daily Tips(2017 Sept-Dec: 31/176, +110.75) (2018: 27/290,94p, -0.6) (1 point win /1 pt EW bets) Festival Tips (2018: +156)

Daily Tips

4.25 York

Dark Shot – 1 point win – 9/1 (bet365) 8/1 (gen) 

that’s all for today,09.25, write up…

I’ll probably get what I deserve for rowing in again with this one but I couldn’t help myself given he hasn’t really run a bad race all year, having been mixing it with much better company and having finished ahead of a few of these numerous times already this season. He drops into a C3 for the first time for Dixon, the level of all his wins, and with the claim he’s now 1lb below his last winning mark. He drops back down to 5f and has first time blinkers… surely they are going for the break fast/go hard/hope to cling on approach, having been a bit more patient with him over 6f. He’d been running as if worth a go over that trip but hasn’t quite convinced, but it could be class has found him out. On his first run of the season/on stable debut, he ran El Astronaute very close over CD, and if he repeated that run I think he wins this. A few starts back at Goodwood he was in and around the right horses, who’ve since won plenty…Baron Bolt won that, and he’d go on to dead heat up at Ayr in the big one. Boy In The Bar would win a C2, Polybius would win his next start and Snazzy Jazzy was just behind him- he’d go on to win the Silver Cup for us at Ayr. So, that’s some decent form. He would have gone very close at Chester in 1st CP if getting a clear run, in another C2 (he may have won), and at the Curragh he went well for a long way, on the wrong part of the track, and that’s a stiff 6f- he didn’t see it out. He won his maiden on Soft, so hopefully any change in the ground isn’t too much of an inconvenience but it’s a question, as it would be for a few in here. It’s good and there is light drizzle at the moment, meant to clear at lunchtime. He should race on the pace. I don’t know if there’s a track bias but there’s pace high, so I won’t use that as an excuse. Anyway, his recent form, the drop in trip, class, blinkers, falling mark, prominent racing position, that CD form from May, have all tempted me in. Dixon is 3/17,6p with 1st blinkers in handicaps since start of 2015, 2/7,3p since start of 2017 and hopefully he can add to those stats. 

 

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I’ll no longer indulge in any running commentary on my awful form, recent days have summed up the whole year to date on the daily tips front. Just woeful and not good enough. I doubt many people are following them or are thinking of jumping off that ship, I wouldn’t blame you. It will turn around and i’ll find the key to more consistent success on that front. The first drive is the fact I like to solve the puzzle, and it drives me mad that i’m not doing that at the moment on a daily basis. Anyway, all of that is for me to ponder and rectify. 

I’m now back down south for the weekend. Amy has her owners open day on Sat and i’m off to Newmarket on Friday with some friends. Looks a great card, albeit out of my comfort zone, whatever that is at the moment. 🙂 But, if you have any thoughts, fire away. And if you’re there, do say hello if you see me. 

 

3.Micro System Test Zone

Flat 

R Fell 

2.40 Y – Dommersen 40/1

5.35 Y – Guardia Svizzera 25/1

Top of The Class

4.45 N – Firebird Song 15/2

5.20 N – Nashirah 9/4

Jumps

Irish Angles

2.30 DP – Liars Dice (25/1< guide) 66/1

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

There’s a results update worth a flick through in yesterday’s post that I won’t repeat again, and info on Really Super that I won’t mention again. I think there’s now 1 share left.

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SAT big race trends/pointers. 

I’ll focus on the big handicap hurdle from Chepstow and the Cesarewitch. I haven’t got round to the latter yet, but for now…

 

Silver Trophy Handicap Hurdle(not overly useful, but some pointers) 

10/139, 33p

9/10 Top 2 at least once last 3 runs. (1/33,4p were not)

7/10 were up 3-4f from last run (7/23 runners, 10p)

  • 2/10 were down 2.5f-5f (2/24, 7p)

7/10 ran over 2m-2m1f LTO (7/22,10p)

6/10 had 1-4 runs this season (6/44, 13p)

6/10 won LTO (6/35,13p, +101 BFSP)

6/10 ridden by claiming jockeys (6/44,10p)

5/10 had 1-2 runs prev 90 days (5/27,10p)

4/10 had 4 or 5 career runs (4/12,4p)

Trainers: E Williams (2/7,3p), P Hobbs (2/15,6p);  x1 – C Roberts/NTD/V Dartnall/DMcCain/D Skelton/D Pipe

A King (0/12,0p) P Nicholls (0/15,4p)

Common traits... I took a look through the last 10 winners… 5 of them had run at the Chelt Festival that year, or at Aintree GN meeting. 4 were making handicap hurdle debut (including both of Hobbs’ winners), those remaining that didn’t tick those boxes either won LTO and/or had a course win to their name. Do with that as you please. 

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

48 Responses

  1. Keep the faith Josh, your records and loyal band of followers know that a win streak is just around the corner. Quite possibly once the heavens have opened and we have those lovely heavy ground 3 mile chases again!
    By the way i am paying my first visit to Fairyhouse this Saturday, If you or any other members have any thoughts on the card or the course generally please do share them.
    Cheers, Al

      1. I’ll add a bit more now I’ve looked at my figs properly. Out of comfort zone, trying to get a grip on cavalry charges etc and still turned a profit in whilst frying an egg on the pavement.
        Mike

          1. Hi Martin, it was tongue in cheek after a couple of homemade cocktails involving copious amounts of rum. In case I caused any confusion my comments are aimed at Josh’s tips not myself.haha

  2. Hi Josh, as Brian said to me the other day, I feel your pain!

    If you want a stats tip for tomorrow ‘s trip to Newmarket, the trainer/ jockey combo for Jack Regan in the 16.10 are a very unusual 50% win 80% place in handicaps over the last year.

    Be Lucky and have fun.

  3. Ken, you can blame me for this mini run of the last few days as I’ve just started following.

    Thought Final Choice was going to get up which would have sorted the day right out! Keep them coming

    1. Ah, I’d been wondering why haha. Only sorry you joined in at the start of a losing run. Hopefully a couple of winners over the weekend to right the ship.

      1. Nice one maestro. Just sorting you the restaurant voucher.

        Do us a favour and cancel your holiday. I cant really afford for you to go missing from here.

    1. Unbelievable Nick, not sure how you are picking them on such a regular basis but top class. Send me your email Nick please so I can send you a treat. Cheers

  4. Two more winners and a place among others for ‘trainers with a 50% place strike rate in handicaps with at least 5 runners in the past 14 days’ on Thursday. A profit or loss update at the end of the week.

    Fridays qualifiers:

    2.50 NA Wicked Willy
    4.00 NA Midnight Glory
    4.10 NK Breath Caught & Rock Eagle & Baritone
    6.45 Wo Another Angel
    7.15 Wo Mapped
    8.45 Wol Mirbat & Ensign Ewart & Lucky’s Dream
    9.15 Wol Black Truffle

    Good luck.

  5. Hey Josh, I’m on a losing run of 38 at the moment and I don’t give a shit!!! beat that!! I’ll end the year with more than I have now. I had 5/10 recently and said to my lad ‘watch me get 40 losers now to even it out!’ 2 more to go and then I’ll get some winners ( I hope ).

  6. Winners proving hard to come by since Monday. Nothing again tonight at Chelmsford but Final Choice came agonisingly close in the last after drifting to 9/1 close to the off. If we keep knocking on the door we’ll break through eventually.

    Wolves tomorrow. Qualifiers:
    6.45 Broadhaven Honey 9/2 (6/1 available with PP/BF but not BOG for me)
    7.15 Intrepidly 12/1
    8.45 Tukhoom 6/1
    9.15 Athassel 9/2 (5/1 PP)

    All 1pt win

    Good Luck

  7. Six selections yesterday….1 non runner….5 bets…4 lost 1 winner @7/1 SP….win only returned 7 pts place + 1.75 = 8.75..if backing each way = -8 pts…so e/w = + .75 pts profit…if backing win only +3pts profit.
    Fridays selections:
    18.45. Wolv. Red Stripes
    1930. Dun. Georgian Bay
    20.00. Dun. Toreen Legend
    20.15. Wolv. War Department
    21.15. Wolv. Malaysian Boleh/Athassel are joint top.

    Dundalk and Wolverhampton are not my favourite tracks as low grade and unpredictable so will be interesting to see if the system works. Good luck if you are playing.

  8. RECENT TIPS
    Daily
    N 5.55 – Cosmopolitan Queen on 2nd run @ 50
    Y 4.25 – Just Glamorous on 2nd and 3rd run @ 25
    ………..Dark Shot on 3rd run @ 9
    Festival
    Y 2.05 – Concierge on 3rd run @ 8
    Y 4.25 – Copper Knight on 4th and 5th run @ 14
    …………Dark Shot on 5th run @9
    Y 5.35 – Tommy G on 2nd run @ 11
    N 2.15 – Dolors on 2nd run @ 4
    N 3.25 – Flying Tiger on 3rd run @ 9/4
    3m+
    N 2.50 – Clondaw Cian on 4th run @ 12
    GL

  9. Just reading a article , where the writer pointed out the number of Irish horses winning at Ayr and Hamilton, in low grade handicaps . He was making the case , Ireland’s low grade horses are better than our low grade horses . Would we have made money backing each one at 5-1 and under ? I wonder will the same happen , this winter for their national hunt horses ?

    1. was that the Richard Birch article in the Outlook at all? I think Josh did a trial last year on Irish horses over here for the National Hunt although I could be making that up 🙂

    2. I do not necessarily think they are better but are likely more targeted after making the bother to journey over. I am going off memory and have not gone through that data but any profit they are making is minimal. I think a better angle is where they appear at ‘other’ courses such as Wolverhampton and Sedgefield and exclude Ayr and Musselburgh, so lets us say in England and Wales. I cannot see a profit being made except for backing any qualifier over 5/1 as a system? I am sceptical of such a system paying dividends but we shall see?

      Good luck

      1. One that was pointed out yesterday on Racing uk was Richard o Brian…Any relation to the o Brian mafia?
        He had T for Tango 8s yesterday at Ayr T Hamilton on board.
        Over the past 18 months he has a strong s/r over here. I don’t have the software but if some has the time to look up his record. Appreciated.

        Mike

        1. FROM ONE BRIAN TO ANOTHER 🙂
          R O’BRIEN HANDICAP RACES ONLY IN UK
          Bets Wins Win% P/L(SP) Place% Races ROI(SP) P/L(BF) ROI(BF)
          ALL 163 25 15.34 14.5 34.36 147 8.9 42.68 26.18
          2018 91 14 15.38 6.5 31.87 81 7.14 18.19 19.99
          2017 72 11 15.28 8.00 37.50 66 11.11 24.49 34.01

          BC 🙂

          1. SORRY BRIAN …oops no capitals sorry josh 🙂 …… copy and paste not exact from “word” to this site 🙁
            but if you stretch it out you can decipher it i hope 🙂
            looks interesting though ..only handicaps 🙂
            cheers
            bc 🙂

        2. bally hell man .. my ramblings/findings were for mickey dee ..sorry 🙂 .. i will go back under my shell again now 🙂
          gl
          bc 🙂

        3. re mr o’brien of the richard j. kind .. it would only appear he has had 2 runners in the uk ?? 1 lost last year and the other won yesterday was it ??
          sorry for my ramblings but i am pretty sure that is now correct 🙂
          have a great day
          gl
          bc 🙂

          1. Brian
            Thanks for coming back looks like the Racing uk guys were trying to give him more credit than he is due.

            Mike

      2. Qualifiers for today:

        1.50 NK Yolo Again
        3.00 NK Gordon Lord Byron
        5.35 YO Tresorier
        5.45 WO Billyfairplay
        9.15 WO Texas Radio.

    3. Its not that their low grade horses are better, it’s because the Irish handicappers are more lenient when reviewing horses marks, and so they are lower than their equivalent UK mark , so when they race over here they are ‘well in’ off the Irish mark.

      There are some very talented Irish trainers, but its a myth that all their horses are of better quality, if they were racing in the UK then their mark would be more penal, so they get an advantage due to that.

  10. Following a recent email from Ben Aitken on front runners I thought I would put up the following based on pace from atr.
    Billy Dillon..4.25Y..50/1
    Guarda Svizzara..5.35Y..25/1
    Marie’s Benefit..3.25NA..6/4
    Salateen..3.00Nm..25/1
    Shambolic (could how these perform)..3.35Nm..12/1
    Chain of Daisies..5.55Nm..5/4

    2 of them are too short. One is worth a win bet and 3 a small ew nibble.
    A fun day in front of the telly, golf is off today to windy.

    Have fun

    Mike

  11. Two 16/1 shots today, who may go well if finding some form:

    4.25 YO Duke Of Firenze and 5.45 WO Mystical Moon, both 1 point each way.

    Good luck.

  12. Following on from my post of not giving a shit about getting 38 losers in a row, thanks to Nick and others today I’ve bagged two 14/1 shots and a 4/1 and in a treble. So come on Josh you know as well as anyone else here you will hit some hot form soon because you’ve done it before and will do again even if Dark Shot was a Crap Shot!!! Just don’t fret, it’ll come. Soon. Best of luck to a very top judge called Josh. Me, I’m lucky to have you guys to help me otherwise I’d be a loser, that goes out to all the posters on here as well, fantastic team.

    1. Ha. He was poor. Thankfully Nick saved day on that front and nice 20s from SP2A. I did use my track side paddock eye to pick out 22/1 and 4/1 winners of the two maidens, both unraced. So not all bad haha. Need to get the head in the right spot.
      But yep quite a team here so can’t complain.

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